Geology topics
Patrick L. Barnard
Publications and source records attributed to Patrick L. Barnard.
Coastal vulnerability across the Pacific dominated by El Niño-Southern Oscillation
To predict future coastal hazards, it is important to quantify any links between climate drivers and spatial patterns of coastal change. However, most studies of future coastal vulnerability do not account for the dynamic components of coastal water levels during storms, notably wave-driven processes, storm surges and seasonal water level anomalies, although these components can add metres to water levels during extreme events. Here we synthesize multi-decadal, co-located data assimilated between 1979 and 2012 that describe wave climate, local water levels and coastal change for 48 beaches throughout the Pacific Ocean basin. We find that observed coastal erosion across the Pacific varies most closely with El Niño/Southern Oscillation, with a smaller influence from the Southern Annular Mode and the Pacific North American pattern. In the northern and southern Pacific Ocean, regional wave and water level anomalies are significantly correlated to a suite of climate indices, particularly during boreal winter; conditions in the northeast Pacific Ocean are often opposite to those in the western and southern Pacific. We conclude that, if projections for an increasing frequency of extreme El Niño and La Niña events over the twenty-first century are confirmed, then populated regions on opposite sides of the Pacific Ocean basin could be alternately exposed to extreme coastal erosion and flooding, independent of sea-level rise.
A nonlinear, implicit one-line model to predict long-term shoreline change
We present the formulation, validation, and application of a nonlinear, implicit one-line model to simulate long-term (decadal and longer) shoreline change. The purpose of the implicit numerical method presented here is to allow large time steps without sacrificing model stability compared to explicit approaches, and thereby improve computational efficiency. The model uses a Jacobian-free Newton-Krylov solver to compute the solution to the governing equations, i.e. the shoreline position. The model is validated against an analytical solution for alongshore shoreline diffusion. The model is applied to simulate a decade of observed shoreline change at Ocean Beach (2004-2014). When wave transformation is included (implemented via SWAN and a look-up table) there is a 100% increase in the number of profiles where erosion or accretion is correctly predicted.
Towards forecasting the retreat of California’s coastal cliffs during the 21st century
In California, sea-level rise during the 21 st century threatens to accelerate coastal cliff recession rates. To forecast such changes for managers and policymakers, models must play a key role. In this paper, we extend a ~70-year long dataset of measured historic sea cliff retreat rates in Southern California into the 21 st century using a suite of simple analytical and empirical models. Ensemble results suggest that coastal cliff recession rates could increase on average by 0.09-0.22 m yr -1 for a 0.5-1.0 m rise in sea level by 2100, 27-67% faster than historical rates. The basic models used herein will serve as a baseline against which more complex, process-based and statistical (Bayesian) forecasts will be compared. The application of different models, with varying levels of detail, to the same geomorphic problem will provide a comprehensive forecast and address the question of how to reduce model complexity while minimizing uncertainty.
Classification of rocky headlands in California with relevance to littoral cell boundary delineation
Despite extensive studies of hydrodynamics and sediment flux along beaches, there is little information on the processes, pathways and timing of water and sediment transport around rocky headlands. In this study, headlands along the California coast are classified to advance understanding of headland dynamics and littoral cell boundaries in support of improved coastal management decisions. Geomorphological parameters for 78 headlands were quantified from geological maps, remote-sensing imagery, navigational charts, and shoreline geospatial databases. K -means cluster analysis grouped the headlands into eight distinct classes based on headland perimeter, bathymetric slope ratio, and the headland apex angle. Wave data were used to investigate the potential for sediment transport around the headland types and determine the efficacy of the headland as a littoral cell boundary. Four classes of headland appear to function well as littoral cell boundaries, with headland size (e.g., perimeter or area) and a marked change in nearshore bathymetry across the headland being relevant attributes. About half of the traditional California littoral cell boundaries align with headland classes that are expected to perform poorly in blocking alongshore sediment transport, calling into question these boundaries. Better definition of these littoral cell boundaries is important for regional sediment management decisions.
Projected wave conditions in the Eastern North Pacific under the influence of two CMIP5 climate scenarios
Hindcast and 21st century winds, simulated by General Circulation Models (GCMs), were used to drive global- and regional-scale spectral wind-wave generation models in the Pacific Ocean Basin to assess future wave conditions along the margins of the North American west coast and Hawaiian Islands. Three-hourly winds simulated by four separate GCMs were used to generate an ensemble of wave conditions for a recent historical time-period (1976–2005) and projections for the mid and latter parts of the 21st century under two radiative forcing scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), as defined by the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) experiments. Comparisons of results from historical simulations with wave buoy and ERA-Interim wave reanalysis data indicate acceptable model performance of wave heights, periods, and directions, giving credence to generating projections. Mean and extreme wave heights are projected to decrease along much of the North American west coast. Extreme wave heights are projected to decrease south of ∼50°N and increase to the north, whereas extreme wave periods are projected to mostly increase. Incident wave directions associated with extreme wave heights are projected to rotate clockwise at the eastern end of the Aleutian Islands and counterclockwise offshore of Southern California. Local spatial patterns of the changing wave climate are similar under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, but stronger magnitudes of change are projected under RCP 8.5. Findings of this study are similar to previous work using CMIP3 GCMs that indicates decreasing mean and extreme wave conditions in the Eastern North Pacific, but differ from other studies with respect to magnitude and local patterns of change. This study contributes toward a larger ensemble of global and regional climate projections needed to better assess uncertainty of potential future wave climate change, and provides model boundary conditions for assessing the impacts of climate change on coastal systems.
Future wave and wind projections for United States and United-States-affiliated Pacific Islands
Changes in future wave climates in the tropical Pacific Ocean from global climate change are not well understood. Spatially and temporally varying waves dominate coastal morphology and ecosystem structure of the islands throughout the tropical Pacific. Waves also impact coastal infrastructure, natural and cultural resources, and coastal-related economic activities of the islands. Wave heights, periods, and directions were forecast through the year 2100 using wind parameter outputs from four atmosphere-ocean global climate models from the Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project, Phase 5, for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 that correspond to moderately mitigated and unmitigated greenhouse gas emissions, respectively. Wind fields from the global climate models were used to drive a global WAVEWATCH-III wave model and generate hourly time-series of bulk wave parameters for 25 islands in the mid to western tropical Pacific for the years 1976–2005 (historical), 2026–2045 (mid-century projection), and 2085–2100 (end-of-century projection). Although the results show some spatial heterogeneity, overall the December-February extreme significant wave heights, defined as the mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave height time-series data modeled within a specific period, increase from present to mid-century and then decrease toward the end of the century; June-August extreme wave heights increase throughout the century within the Central region of the study area; and September-November wave heights decrease strongly throughout the 21st century, displaying the largest and most widespread decreases of any season. Peak wave periods increase east of the International Date Line during the December-February and June-August seasons under RCP4.5. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, wave periods decrease west of the International Date Line during December-February but increase in the eastern half of the study area. Otherwise, wave periods decrease throughout the study area during other seasons. Extreme wave directions in equatorial Micronesia during June-August undergo an approximate 30° clockwise rotation from primarily west to northwest. September-November RCP4.5 extreme mean wave directions rotate counterclockwise by approximately 30 to 45° in equatorial Micronesia; September-November RCP8.5 extreme mean wave directions within equatorial Micronesia rotate clockwise by approximately 20 to 30°. Extreme wind speeds decreased within both scenarios, with the largest decreases occurring in the September-November season. Extreme wind directions under RCP4.5 rotated clockwise by more than 60° in equatorial Micronesia during the September-November season and by approximately 30° during June-August. RCP8.5 extreme wind directions rotated counterclockwise during September-November within the same region by 30 to 50° and clockwise by 30 to 40° at one island. The spatial patterns and trends are similar between the two different greenhouse gas emission scenarios, with the magnitude and extent of the trends generally greater for the higher (RCP8.5) scenario.
Development of the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) for predicting the impact of storms on high-energy, active-margin coasts
The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) applies a predominantly deterministic framework to make detailed predictions (meter scale) of storm-induced coastal flooding, erosion, and cliff failures over large geographic scales (100s of kilometers). CoSMoS was developed for hindcast studies, operational applications (i.e., nowcasts and multiday forecasts), and future climate scenarios (i.e., sea-level rise + storms) to provide emergency responders and coastal planners with critical storm hazards information that may be used to increase public safety, mitigate physical damages, and more effectively manage and allocate resources within complex coastal settings. The prototype system, developed for the California coast, uses the global WAVEWATCH III wave model, the TOPEX/Poseidon satellite altimetry-based global tide model, and atmospheric-forcing data from either the US National Weather Service (operational mode) or Global Climate Models (future climate mode), to determine regional wave and water-level boundary conditions. These physical processes are dynamically downscaled using a series of nested Delft3D-WAVE (SWAN) and Delft3D-FLOW (FLOW) models and linked at the coast to tightly spaced XBeach (eXtreme Beach) cross-shore profile models and a Bayesian probabilistic cliff failure model. Hindcast testing demonstrates that, despite uncertainties in preexisting beach morphology over the ~500 km alongshore extent of the pilot study area, CoSMoS effectively identifies discrete sections of the coast (100s of meters) that are vulnerable to coastal hazards under a range of current and future oceanographic forcing conditions, and is therefore an effective tool for operational and future climate scenario planning.
Tidally influenced alongshore circulation at an inlet-adjacent shoreline
The contribution of tidal forcing to alongshore circulation inside the surfzone is investigated at a 7 km long sandy beach adjacent to a large tidal inlet. Ocean Beach in San Francisco, CA (USA) is onshore of a ∼150 km2 ebb-tidal delta and directly south of the Golden Gate, the sole entrance to San Francisco Bay. Using a coupled flow-wave numerical model, we find that the tides modulate, and in some cases can reverse the direction of, surfzone alongshore flows through two separate mechanisms. First, tidal flow through the inlet results in a barotropic tidal pressure gradient that, when integrated across the surfzone, represents an important contribution to the surfzone alongshore force balance. Even during energetic wave conditions, the tidal pressure gradient can account for more than 30% of the total alongshore pressure gradient (wave and tidal components) and up to 55% during small waves. The wave driven component of the alongshore pressure gradient results from alongshore wave height and corresponding setup gradients induced by refraction over the ebb-tidal delta. Second, wave refraction patterns over the inner shelf are tidally modulated as a result of both tidal water depth changes and strong tidal flows (∼1 m/s), with the effect from currents being larger. These tidally induced changes in wave refraction result in corresponding variability of the alongshore radiation stress and pressure gradients within the surfzone. Our results indicate that tidal contributions to the surfzone force balance can be significant and important in determining the direction and magnitude of alongshore flow.
Sediment transport patterns in the San Francisco Bay Coastal System from cross-validation of bedform asymmetry and modeled residual flux
The morphology of ~ 45,000 bedforms from 13 multibeam bathymetry surveys was used as a proxy for identifying net bedload sediment transport directions and pathways throughout the San Francisco Bay estuary and adjacent outer coast. The spatially-averaged shape asymmetry of the bedforms reveals distinct pathways of ebb and flood transport. Additionally, the region-wide, ebb-oriented asymmetry of 5% suggests net seaward-directed transport within the estuarine-coastal system, with significant seaward asymmetry at the mouth of San Francisco Bay (11%), through the northern reaches of the Bay (7-8%), and among the largest bedforms (21% for λ > 50 m). This general indication for the net transport of sand to the open coast strongly suggests that anthropogenic removal of sediment from the estuary, particularly along clearly defined seaward transport pathways, will limit the supply of sand to chronically eroding, open-coast beaches. The bedform asymmetry measurements significantly agree (up to ~ 76%) with modeled annual residual transport directions derived from a hydrodynamically-calibrated numerical model, and the orientation of adjacent, flow-sculpted seafloor features such as mega-flute structures, providing a comprehensive validation of the technique. The methods described in this paper to determine well-defined, cross-validated sediment transport pathways can be applied to estuarine-coastal systems globally where bedforms are present. The results can inform and improve regional sediment management practices to more efficiently utilize often limited sediment resources and mitigate current and future sediment supply-related impacts.
Integration of bed characteristics, geochemical tracers, current measurements, and numerical modeling for assessing the provenance of beach sand in the San Francisco Bay Coastal System
Over 150 million m 3 of sand-sized sediment has disappeared from the central region of the San Francisco Bay Coastal System during the last half century. This enormous loss may reflect numerous anthropogenic influences, such as watershed damming, bay-fill development, aggregate mining, and dredging. The reduction in Bay sediment also appears to be linked to a reduction in sediment supply and recent widespread erosion of adjacent beaches, wetlands, and submarine environments. A unique, multi-faceted provenance study was performed to definitively establish the primary sources, sinks, and transport pathways of beach-sized sand in the region, thereby identifying the activities and processes that directly limit supply to the outer coast. This integrative program is based on comprehensive surficial sediment sampling of the San Francisco Bay Coastal System, including the seabed, Bay floor, area beaches, adjacent rock units, and major drainages. Analyses of sample morphometrics and biological composition (e.g., Foraminifera) were then integrated with a suite of tracers including 87 Sr/ 86 Sr and 143 Nd/ 144 Nd isotopes, rare earth elements, semi-quantitative X-ray diffraction mineralogy, and heavy minerals, and with process-based numerical modeling, in situ current measurements, and bedform asymmetry to robustly determine the provenance of beach-sized sand in the region.
Sand sources and transport pathways for the San Francisco Bay coastal system, based on X-ray diffraction mineralogy
The mineralogical compositions of 119 samples collected from throughout the San Francisco Bay coastal system, including bayfloor and seafloor, area beaches, cliff outcrops, and major drainages, were determined using X-ray diffraction (XRD). Comparison of the mineral concentrations and application of statistical cluster analysis of XRD spectra allowed for the determination of provenances and transport pathways. The use of XRD mineral identifications provides semi-quantitative compositions needed for comparisons of beach and offshore sands with potential cliff and river sources, but the innovative cluster analysis of XRD diffraction spectra provides a unique visualization of how groups of samples within the San Francisco Bay coastal system are related so that sand-sized sediment transport pathways can be inferred. The main vector for sediment transport as defined by the XRD analysis is from San Francisco Bay to the outer coast, where the sand then accumulates on the ebb tidal delta and also moves alongshore. This mineralogical link defines a critical pathway because large volumes of sediment have been removed from the Bay over the last century via channel dredging, aggregate mining, and borrow pit mining, with comparable volumes of erosion from the ebb tidal delta over the same period, in addition to high rates of shoreline retreat along the adjacent, open-coast beaches. Therefore, while previously only a temporal relationship was established, the transport pathway defined by mineralogical and geochemical tracers support the link between anthropogenic activities in the Bay and widespread erosion outside the Bay. The XRD results also establish the regional and local importance of sediment derived from cliff erosion, as well as both proximal and distal fluvial sources. This research is an important contribution to a broader provenance study aimed at identifying the driving forces for widespread geomorphic change in a heavily urbanized coastal-estuarine system.
Sediment transport in the San Francisco Bay Coastal System: An overview
The papers in this special issue feature state-of-the-art approaches to understanding the physical processes related to sediment transport and geomorphology of complex coastal-estuarine systems. Here we focus on the San Francisco Bay Coastal System, extending from the lower San Joaquin-Sacramento Delta, through the Bay, and along the adjacent outer Pacific Coast. San Francisco Bay is an urbanized estuary that is impacted by numerous anthropogenic activities common to many large estuaries, including a mining legacy, channel dredging, aggregate mining, reservoirs, freshwater diversion, watershed modifications, urban run-off, ship traffic, exotic species introductions, land reclamation, and wetland restoration. The Golden Gate strait is the sole inlet connecting the Bay to the Pacific Ocean, and serves as the conduit for a tidal flow of ~ 8 x 109 m 3 /day, in addition to the transport of mud, sand, biogenic material, nutrients, and pollutants. Despite this physical, biological and chemical connection, resource management and prior research have often treated the Delta, Bay and adjacent ocean as separate entities, compartmentalized by artificial geographic or political boundaries. The body of work herein presents a comprehensive analysis of system-wide behavior, extending a rich heritage of sediment transport research that dates back to the groundbreaking hydraulic mining-impact research of G.K. Gilbert in the early 20th century.
Changes in surfzone morphodynamics driven by multi-decadal contraction of a large ebb-tidal delta
The impact of multi-decadal, large-scale deflation (76 million m 3 of sediment loss) and contraction (~ 1 km) of a 150 km 2 ebb-tidal delta on hydrodynamics and sediment transport at adjacent Ocean Beach in San Francisco, CA (USA), is examined using a coupled wave and circulation model. The model is forced with representative wave and tidal conditions using recent (2005) and historic (1956) ebb-tidal delta bathymetry data sets. Comparison of the simulations indicates that along north/south trending Ocean Beach the contraction and deflation of the ebb-tidal delta have resulted in significant differences in the flow and sediment dynamics. Between 1956 and 2005 the transverse bar (the shallow attachment point of the ebb-tidal delta to the shoreline) migrated northward ~ 1 km toward the inlet while a persistent alongshore flow and transport divergence point migrated south by ~ 500 m such that these features now overlap. A reduction in tidal prism and sediment supply over the last century has resulted in a net decrease in offshore tidal current-generated sediment transport at the mouth of San Francisco Bay, and a relative increase in onshore-directed wave-driven transport toward the inlet, accounting for the observed contraction of the ebb-tidal delta. Alongshore migration of the transverse bar and alongshore flow divergence have resulted in an increasing proportion of onshore migrating sediment from the ebb-tidal delta to be transported north along the beach in 2005 versus south in 1956. The northerly migrating sediment is then trapped by Pt. Lobos, a rocky headland at the northern extreme of the beach, consistent with the observed shoreline accretion in this area. Conversely, alongshore migration of the transverse bar and divergence point has decreased the sediment supply to southern Ocean Beach, consistent with the observed erosion of the shoreline in this area. This study illustrates the utility of applying a high-resolution coupled circulation-wave model for understanding coastal response to large-scale bathymetric changes over multi-decadal timescales, common to many coastal systems adjacent to urbanized estuaries and watersheds worldwide.
Monitoring and modeling nearshore dredge disposal for indirect beach nourishment, Ocean Beach, San Francisco
Nearshore dredge disposal was performed during the summer of 2005 at Ocean Beach, San Francisco, CA, a high energy tidal and wave environment. This trial run was an attempt to provide a buffer to a reach of coastline where wave attack during the winter months has had a severe impact on existing sewage infrastructure. Although the subsequent beach response was inconclusive, after one year the peak of the disposal mound had migrated ~100 m toward the shore, providing evidence that annual dredge disposal at this site could be beneficial over the long-term by at the very least providing: 1) additional wave dissipation during storms 2) compatible sediment to feed nearshore bars, 3) sediment cover on an exposed sewage outfall pipe, and 4) a viable alternative to the shoaling offshore disposal site. Numerical modeling suggests that despite the strong tidal currents in the region, wave forcing is the dominant factor moving the sediment slowly toward shore, and placing sediment at just slightly shallower depths (e.g. < 8 m vs. > 9 m) in the future would have a more immediate impact.
Recent scientific advances and their implications for sand management near San Francisco, California: The influences of the ebb tidal delta
Recent research in the San Francisco, California, U.S.A., coastal region has identified the importance of the ebb tidal delta to coastal processes. A process-based numerical model is found to qualitatively reproduce the equilibrium size and shape of the delta. The ebb tidal delta itself has been contracting over the past century, and the numerical model is applied to investigate the sensitivity of the delta to changes in forcing conditions. The large ebb tidal delta has a strong influence upon regional coastal processes. The prominent bathymetry of the ebb tidal delta protects some of the coast from extreme storm waves, but the delta also focuses wave energy toward the central and southern portions of Ocean Beach. Wave focusing likely contributes to a chronic erosion problem at the southern end of Ocean Beach. The ebb tidal delta in combination with non-linear waves provides a potential cross-shore sediment transport pathway that probably supplies sediment to Ocean Beach.
Nearshore bathymetric evolution on a high-energy beach during the 2009-10 El Nino winter
The nearshore bathymetric evolution of a high-energy beach at the mouth of San Francisco Bay, California (USA), was tracked before, during, and after the powerful El Niño winter of 2009-10 to quantify alongshore bar formation and migration as well as the magnitude and alongshore variability of cross-shore transport. The observed deep-water winter wave energy was among the highest ever recorded in Northern California, peaking during a 7 day period in the middle of January 2010 with a mean deep-water significant wave height ( H s ) of 5.5 m, and a maximum H s = 9 m . The extreme forcing during the study period resulted in local bed level changes that approached 5 m, cross-shore bar migration of > 250 m, ~3 m alongshore trough deepening, and a net gain of ~1.6 million m 3 of sediment to the nearshore profile over the 7 km alongshore extent of the survey area, leaving beach sand levels severely depleted. The morphological evolution observed during this El Niño winter may serve as a proxy for future coastal response to climate change if current trends of increased storminess continue for the U.S. West Coast.
A numerical model investigation of the formation and persistence of an erosion hotspot
A Delft3D-SWAN coupled flow and wave model was constructed for the San Francisco Bight with high-resolution at 7 km-long Ocean Beach, a high-energy beach located immediately south of the Golden Gate, the sole entrance to San Francisco Bay. The model was used to investigate tidal and wave-induced flows, basic forcing terms, and potential sediment transport in an area in the southern portion of Ocean Beach that has eroded significantly over the last several decades. The model predicted flow patterns that were favorable for sediment removal from the area and net erosion from the surf-zone. Analysis of the forcing terms driving surf-zone flows revealed that wave refraction over an exposed wastewater outfall pipe between the 12 and 15 m isobaths introduces a perturbation in the wave field that results in erosion-causing flows. Modeled erosion agreed well with five years of topographic survey data from the area.