Geology topics

Patrick F. Sullivan

Publications and source records attributed to Patrick F. Sullivan.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2024

Metal mobilization from thawing permafrost to aquatic ecosystems is driving rusting of Arctic streams

Climate change in the Arctic is altering watershed hydrologic processes and biogeochemistry. Here, we present an emergent threat to Arctic watersheds based on observations from 75 streams in Alaska’s Brooks Range that recently turned orange, reflecting increased loading of iron and toxic metals. Using remote sensing, we constrain the timing of stream discoloration to the last 10 years, a period of rapid warming and snowfall, suggesting impairment is likely due to permafrost thaw. Thawing permafrost can foster chemical weathering of minerals, microbial reduction of soil iron, and groundwater transport of metals to streams. Compared to clear reference streams, orange streams have lower pH, higher turbidity, and higher sulfate, iron, and trace metal concentrations, supporting sulfide mineral weathering as a primary mobilization process. Stream discoloration was associated with dramatic declines in macroinvertebrate diversity and fish abundance. These findings have considerable implications for drinking water supplies and subsistence fisheries in rural Alaska.

Alaska↗

USGS2021

The climate envelope of Alaska’s northern treelines: Implications for controlling factors and future treeline advance

Understanding the key mechanisms that control northern treelines is important to accurately predict biome shifts and terrestrial feedbacks to climate. At a global scale, it has long been observed that elevational and latitudinal treelines occur at similar mean growing season air temperature (GSAT) isotherms, inspiring the growth limitation hypothesis (GLH) that cold GSAT limits aboveground growth of treeline trees, with mean treeline GSAT ~6–7°C. Treelines with mean GSAT warmer than 6–7°C may indicate other limiting factors. Many treelines globally are not advancing despite warming, and other climate variables are rarely considered at broad scales. Our goals were to test whether current boreal treelines in northern Alaska correspond with the GLH isotherm, determine which environmental factors are most predictive of treeline presence, and identify areas beyond the current treeline where advance is most likely. We digitized ~12 400 km of treelines (>26 K points) and computed seasonal climate variables across northern Alaska. We then built a generalized additive model predicting treeline presence to identify key factors determining treeline. Two metrics of mean GSAT at Alaska's northern treelines were consistently warmer than the 6–7°C isotherm (means of 8.5°C and 9.3°C), indicating that direct physiological limitation from low GSAT is unlikely to explain the position of treelines in northern Alaska. Our final model included cumulative growing degree-days, near-surface (≤1 m) permafrost probability and growing season total precipitation, which together may represent the importance of soil temperature. Our results indicate that mean GSAT may not be the primary driver of treeline in northern Alaska or that its effect is mediated by other more proximate, and possibly non-climatic, controls. Our model predicts treeline potential in several areas beyond current treelines, pointing to possible routes of treeline advance if unconstrained by non-climatic factors.

Alaska↗

USGS2019

Large loss of CO2 in winter observed across pan-arctic permafrost region

Recent warming in the Arctic, which has been amplified during the winter 1 , 2 , 3 , greatly enhances microbial decomposition of soil organic matter and subsequent release of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) 4 . However, the amount of CO 2 released in winter is not known and has not been well represented by ecosystem models or empirically based estimates 5 , 6 . Here we synthesize regional in situ observations of CO 2 flux from Arctic and boreal soils to assess current and future winter carbon losses from the northern permafrost domain. We estimate a contemporary loss of 1,662 TgC per year from the permafrost region during the winter season (October–April). This loss is greater than the average growing season carbon uptake for this region estimated from process models (−1,032 TgC per year). Extending model predictions to warmer conditions up to 2100 indicates that winter CO 2 emissions will increase 17% under a moderate mitigation scenario—Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5—and 41% under business-as-usual emissions scenario—Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5. Our results provide a baseline for winter CO 2 emissions from northern terrestrial regions and indicate that enhanced soil CO 2 loss due to winter warming may offset growing season carbon uptake under future climatic conditions.

northern permafrost region↗

USGS2014

The unseen iceberg: Plant roots in arctic tundra

Plant roots play a critical role in ecosystem function in arctic tundra, but root dynamics in these ecosystems are poorly understood. To address this knowledge gap, we synthesized available literature on tundra roots, including their distribution, dynamics and contribution to ecosystem carbon and nutrient fluxes, and highlighted key aspects of their representation in terrestrial biosphere models. Across all tundra ecosystems, belowground plant biomass exceeded aboveground biomass, with the exception of polar desert tundra. Roots were shallowly distributed in the thin layer of soil that thaws annually, and were often found in surface organic soil horizons. Root traits – including distribution, chemistry, anatomy and resource partitioning – play an important role in controlling plant species competition, and therefore ecosystem carbon and nutrient fluxes, under changing climatic conditions, but have only been quantified for a small fraction of tundra plants. Further, the annual production and mortality of fine roots are key components of ecosystem processes in tundra, but extant data are sparse. Tundra root traits and dynamics should be the focus of future research efforts. Better representation of the dynamics and characteristics of tundra roots will improve the utility of models for the evaluation of the responses of tundra ecosystems to changing environmental conditions.

New Phytologist↗

USGS2011

Evidence and implications of recent and projected climate change in Alaska's forest ecosystems

The structure and function of Alaska's forests have changed significantly in response to a changing climate, including alterations in species composition and climate feedbacks (e.g., carbon, radiation budgets) that have important regional societal consequences and human feedbacks to forest ecosystems. In this paper we present the first comprehensive synthesis of climate-change impacts on all forested ecosystems of Alaska, highlighting changes in the most critical biophysical factors of each region. We developed a conceptual framework describing climate drivers, biophysical factors and types of change to illustrate how the biophysical and social subsystems of Alaskan forests interact and respond directly and indirectly to a changing climate. We then identify the regional and global implications to the climate system and associated socio-economic impacts, as presented in the current literature. Projections of temperature and precipitation suggest wildfire will continue to be the dominant biophysical factor in the Interior-boreal forest, leading to shifts from conifer- to deciduous-dominated forests. Based on existing research, projected increases in temperature in the Southcentral- and Kenai-boreal forests will likely increase the frequency and severity of insect outbreaks and associated wildfires, and increase the probability of establishment by invasive plant species. In the Coastal-temperate forest region snow and ice is regarded as the dominant biophysical factor. With continued warming, hydrologic changes related to more rapidly melting glaciers and rising elevation of the winter snowline will alter discharge in many rivers, which will have important consequences for terrestrial and marine ecosystem productivity. These climate-related changes will affect plant species distribution and wildlife habitat, which have regional societal consequences, and trace-gas emissions and radiation budgets, which are globally important. Our conceptual framework facilitates assessment of current and future consequences of a changing climate, emphasizes regional differences in biophysical factors, and points to linkages that may exist but that currently lack supporting research. The framework also serves as a visual tool for resource managers and policy makers to develop regional and global management strategies and to inform policies related to climate mitigation and adaptation.

Alaska↗