Geology topics

Paige E. Howell

Publications and source records attributed to Paige E. Howell.

10 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2026

American kestrel population trends and vital rates at the continental scale

The American kestrel ( Falco sparverius , hereafter referred to as kestrel) has declined across much of its North American range since at least the mid-1960s. Kestrel population dynamics have been explored through a multitude of local studies and two broad reviews of available data. Across large geographic extents, however, the demographic cause(s) of kestrel population declines remain(s) largely unknown. As part of a collaborative effort to elucidate the drivers of kestrel population declines, we developed a continental-scale integrated population model using band-recovery data, productivity data, and Breeding Bird Survey indices from 1986 to 2019 to estimate indices of annual population sizes, survival, and productivity rates across the continental United States. We detected a decline in population size of ~1%–2% per year. Overall estimates of population growth from 1986 to 2019 suggest a 29% decline in population size (95% CI = −34% to −23%). There was little evidence of a trend in brood size. However, survival of juvenile birds (mean = −0.015, SD = 0.008 and mean = −0.024, SD = 0.010 for females and males, respectively) and adult males (mean = −0.016, SD = 0.010) in the summer declined, suggesting that these vital rates could be contributing to declines in populations over time. Winter adult survival rates (mean = −0.004, SD = 0.009 and mean = −0.009, SD = 0.010 for females and males, respectively) also declined but to a lesser extent than summer survival. For juvenile birds, winter survival increased (mean = 0.006, SD = 0.008 and mean = 0.002, SD = 0.009 for females and males, respectively); however, this was not enough to offset declines in summer survival and annual survival rates declined over the time series. Annual adult survival was also low relative to previous research on kestrel survival rates. Given the importance of survival to population trends, our findings provide support for several previously proposed broad classes of factors potentially contributing to observed population declines: declines in arthropod prey, second-generation rodenticides, neonicotinoid insecticides, and predation.

Ecosphere↗

USGS2023

Leveraging the strengths of citizen science and structured surveys to achieve scalable inference on population size

Population size is a key metric for management and policy decisions, yet wildlife monitoring programmes are often limited by the spatial and temporal scope of surveys. In these cases, citizen science data may provide complementary information at higher resolution and greater extent. We present a case study demonstrating how data from the eBird citizen science programme can be combined with regional monitoring efforts by the US Fish and Wildlife Service to produce high-resolution estimates of golden eagle abundance. We developed a model that uses aerial survey data from the western United States to calibrate high-resolution annual estimates of relative abundance from eBird. Using this model, we compared regional population size estimates based on the calibrated eBird information with those based on aerial survey data alone. Population size estimates based on the calibrated eBird information had strong correspondence to estimates from aerial survey data in two out of four regions, and population trajectories based on the two approaches showed high correlations. We demonstrate how the combination of citizen science data and targeted surveys can be used to (a) increase the spatial resolution of population size estimates, (b) extend the spatial extent of inference and (c) predict population size beyond the temporal period of surveys. Findings based on this case study can be used to refine policy metrics used by the US Fish and Wildlife Service and inform permitting regulations (e.g. mortality/harm associated with wind energy development). Policy implications : Our results demonstrate the ability of citizen science data to complement targeted monitoring programmes and improve the efficacy of decision frameworks that require information on population size or trajectory. After validating citizen science data against survey-based benchmarks, agencies can harness strengths of citizen science data to supplement information needs and increase the resolution and extent of population size predictions.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗

USGS2023

Empirical evidence for effects of invasive American Bullfrogs on occurrence of native amphibians and emerging pathogens

Invasive species and emerging infectious diseases are two of the greatest threats to biodiversity. American Bullfrogs ( Rana [ Lithobates ] catesbeiana ), which have been introduced to many parts of the world, are often linked with declines of native amphibians via predation and spreading emerging pathogens such as amphibian chytrid fungus ( Batrachochytrium dendrobatidis [Bd]) and ranaviruses. Although many studies have investigated the potential role of bullfrogs in declines of native amphibians, analyses that account for shared habitat affinities and imperfect detection have found limited support for clear effects. Similarly, the role of bullfrogs in shaping the patch-level distribution of pathogens is unclear. We used eDNA methods to sample 233 sites in the southwestern USA and Sonora, Mexico (2016–2018) to estimate how presence of bullfrogs affects occurrence of 4 native amphibians, Bd, and ranaviruses. Based on 2-species, dominant-subordinate occupancy models fitted in a Bayesian context, federally threatened Chiricahua Leopard Frogs ( R. chiricahuensis ) and Western Tiger Salamanders ( Ambystoma mavortium ) were 8 times (32% vs. 4%) and 2 times (36% vs. 18%), respectively, less likely to occur at sites where bullfrogs occurred. Evidence for negative effects of bullfrogs on Lowland Leopard Frogs ( R. yavapaiensis ) and Northern Leopard Frogs ( R. pipiens ) was less clear, possibly because of smaller numbers of sites where these native species still occur and because bullfrogs often occur at lower densities in streams, the primary habitat for Lowland Leopard Frogs. At the community level, Bd was most likely to occur where bullfrogs co-occurred with native amphibians, which could increase risk to native species. Ranaviruses were estimated to occur at 33% of bullfrog-only sites, 10% of sites where bullfrogs and native amphibians co-occurred, and only 3% of sites where only native amphibians occurred. Of the 85 sites where we did not detect any of the 5 target amphibian species, we also did not detect Bd or ranaviruses; this suggests other hosts do not drive the distribution of these pathogens in our study area. Our results provide landscape-scale evidence that bullfrogs reduce occurrence of native amphibians and increase occurrence of pathogens, information that can clarify risks and aid the prioritization of conservation actions.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2022

Identifying factors linked with persistence of reintroduced populations: Lessons learned from 25 years of amphibian translocations

Conservation translocations are increasingly used to help recover imperiled species. However, success of establishing populations remains low, especially for amphibians. Identifying factors associated with translocation success can help increase efficiency and efficacy of recovery efforts. Since the 1990s, several captive and semi-captive facilities have produced Chiricahua Leopard Frogs ( Rana chiricahuensis ) to establish or augment wild populations in Arizona and New Mexico, USA. During this same time, personnel associated with several programs surveyed translocation and non-translocation sites for presence of amphibians. We used 25 years (1995–2019) of survey and translocation data for the federally threatened Chiricahua Leopard Frog to identify factors linked with population persistence. Our dataset included approximately 40,642 egg masses or animals translocated in 314 events to 115 distinct sites and > 5800 visual encounter surveys from 641 sites; 120 of these sites were also surveyed with environmental DNA methods in 2018. We used a hierarchical dynamic occupancy model that accounted for imperfect detection to identify patch- and landscape-level attributes associated with site occupancy, and then used predictions from that model to evaluate factors associated with population persistence at translocation sites. Across all sites, extinction probability for Chiricahua Leopard Frogs was higher in lotic (stream) than lentic (pond) habitats and when Western Tiger Salamanders ( Ambystoma mavortium ) were present. Restoration of sites specifically for frog conservation reduced extinction probability. Colonization of unoccupied sites increased moderately with increasing numbers of translocation sites within 2 km, indicating a benefit of translocation efforts beyond sites where frogs were stocked. At translocation sites, persistence was greater in lentic than lotic habitats and was negatively correlated with the proportion of years tiger salamanders were present. Increasing numbers of translocation events, especially of late-stage larvae, increased persistence. There was little difference in population persistence based on whether stock was from captive, semi-captive, or wild sources, but translocations during the dry season (January— July) succeeded more than those after the typical arrival of summer rains (August— December). Based on the number of years translocation sites were predicted to be occupied, 2 or more translocations produced, on average, a > 4-yr increase in predicted occupancy compared to sites without translocations. While translocations have increased the number of populations across the landscape, continued management of water availability and threats such as invasive predators and disease remain critical to recovery of the Chiricahua Leopard Frog.

Arizona, New Mexico↗

USGS2021

Accommodating the role of site memory in dynamic species distribution models

First-order dynamic occupancy models (FODOMs) are a class of state-space model in which the true state (occurrence) is observed imperfectly. An important assumption of FODOMs is that site dynamics only depend on the current state and that variations in dynamic processes are adequately captured with covariates or random effects. However, it is often difficult to understand and/or measure the covariates that generate ecological data, which are typically spatiotemporally correlated. Consequently, the non-independent error structure of correlated data causes underestimation of parameter uncertainty and poor ecological inference. Here, we extend the FODOM framework with a second-order Markov process to accommodate site memory when covariates are not available. Our modeling framework can be used to make reliable inference about site occupancy, colonization, extinction, turnover, and detection probabilities. We present a series of simulations to illustrate the data requirements and model performance. We then applied our modeling framework to 13 yr of data from an amphibian community in southern Arizona, USA. In this analysis, we found residual temporal autocorrelation of population processes for most species, even after accounting for long-term drought dynamics. Our approach represents a valuable advance in obtaining inference on population dynamics, especially as they relate to metapopulations.

Arizona↗

USGS2020

Survival estimates for the invasive American bullfrog

American bullfrogs ( Lithobates catesbeianus ) are significant invaders in many places and can negatively impact native species. Despite their impact and wide distribution, little is known about their demography. We used five years of capture mark-recapture data to estimate annual apparent survival of post-metamorphic bullfrogs in a population on the Buenos Aires National Wildlife Refuge in their invaded range in Arizona, U.S.A. This population is a potential source of colonists into breeding ponds used by the federally threatened Chiricahua leopard frog ( L. chiricahuensis ). Results from robust-design Cormack-Jolly-Seber models suggested that survival of bullfrogs was influenced by sex and precipitation but not body condition. Survival was higher for females (mean = 0.37; 95% CI=0.15 , 0.72) than males (mean = 0.17; 95% CI=0.02 , 0.49), and declined with reduced annual precipitation (mean = −0.36, 95% CI = −2.09, 0.84). These survival estimates can be incorporated into models of population dynamics and to help predict spread of bullfrogs.

Arizona↗

USGS2020

Co-occurence of Chiricahua leopard frogs (Lithobates chiricahuensis) with sunfish (Lepomis)

Invasive species are a major threat to the persistence of native species, particularly in systems where ephemeral aquatic habitats have been replaced by permanent water and predators, such as fish, have been introduced. Within the Altar Valley, Arizona, the invasive American bullfrog, Lithobates catesbeianus (formerly Rana catesbeianus ), has been successfully eradicated to help recover Chiricahua leopard frogs ( Lithobates chiricahuensis ). However, other nonnative predators including sunfish ( Lepomis ) are present in some permanent water bodies. During four consecutive years (2014–2017), we detected both the federally threatened Chiricahua leopard frog and sunfish at one permanent water body in the Altar Valley. This suggests that despite the potential negative effect of predatory fish on amphibians, there may be conditions where the Chiricahua leopard frog can co-occur with this nonnative predator. A better understanding of rare situations of co-occurrence with nonnative predators may contribute to our understanding of why co-occurrence happens in some, but not all, systems and whether conservation strategies can be developed in situations where eradication of nonnative predators is infeasible.

Arizona↗

USGS2019

A statistical forecasting approach to metapopulation viability analysis

Conservation of at‐risk species is aided by reliable forecasts of the consequences of environmental change and management actions on population viability. Forecasts from conventional population viability analysis (PVA) are made using a two‐step procedure in which parameters are estimated, or elicited from expert opinion, and then plugged into a stochastic population model without accounting for parameter uncertainty. Recently developed statistical PVAs differ because forecasts are made conditional on models fitted to empirical data. The statistical forecasting approach allows for uncertainty about parameters, but it has rarely been applied in metapopulation contexts where spatially explicit inference is needed about colonization and extinction dynamics and other forms of stochasticity that influence metapopulation viability. We conducted a statistical metapopulation viability analysis (MPVA) using 11 yr of data on the federally threatened Chiricahua leopard frog ( Lithobates chiricahuensis ) to forecast responses to landscape heterogeneity, drought, environmental stochasticity, and management. We evaluated several future environmental scenarios and pond restoration options designed to reduce extinction risk. Forecasts over a 50‐yr time horizon indicated that metapopulation extinction risk was <4% for all scenarios, but uncertainty was high. Without pond restoration, extinction risk is forecasted to be 3.9% (95% CI 0–37%) by year 2066. Restoring six ponds by increasing their hydroperiod reduced extinction risk to <1% and greatly reduced uncertainty (95% CI 0–2%). Our results suggest that managers can mitigate the impacts of drought and environmental stochasticity on metapopulation viability by maintaining ponds that hold water throughout the year and keeping them free of invasive predators. Our study illustrates the utility of the spatially explicit statistical forecasting approach to MPVA in conservation planning efforts.

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2018

Increasing connectivity between metapopulation ecology and landscape ecology

Metapopulation ecology and landscape ecology aim to understand how spatial structure influences ecological processes, yet these disciplines address the problem using fundamentally different modeling approaches. Metapopulation models describe how the spatial distribution of patches affects colonization and extinction, but often do not account for the heterogeneity in the landscape between patches. Models in landscape ecology use detailed descriptions of landscape structure, but often without considering colonization and extinction dynamics. We present a novel spatially explicit modeling framework for narrowing the divide between these disciplines to advance understanding of the effects of landscape structure on metapopulation dynamics. Unlike previous efforts, this framework allows for statistical inference on landscape resistance to colonization using empirical data. We demonstrate the approach using 11 yr of data on a threatened amphibian in a desert ecosystem. Occupancy data for Lithobates chiricahuensis (Chiricahua leopard frog) were collected on the Buenos Aires National Wildlife Refuge (BANWR), Arizona, USA from 2007 to 2017 following a reintroduction in 2003. Results indicated that colonization dynamics were influenced by both patch characteristics and landscape structure. Landscape resistance increased with increasing elevation and distance to the nearest streambed. Colonization rate was also influenced by patch quality, with semi‐permanent and permanent ponds contributing substantially more to the colonization of neighboring ponds relative to intermittent ponds. Ponds that only hold water intermittently also had the highest extinction rate. Our modeling framework can be widely applied to understand metapopulation dynamics in complex landscapes, particularly in systems in which the environment between habitat patches influences the colonization process

Ecology↗

USGS2016

Survival estimates for reintroduced populations of the Chiricahua Leopard Frog ( Lithobates chiricahuensis )

Global amphibian declines have been attributed to a number of factors including disease, invasive species, habitat degradation, and climate change. Reintroduction is one management action that is commonly used with the goal of recovering imperiled species. The success of reintroductions varies widely, and evaluating their efficacy requires estimates of population viability metrics, such as underlying vital rates and trends in abundance. Although rarely quantified, assessing vital rates for recovering populations provides a more mechanistic understanding of population growth than numerical trends in population occupancy or abundance. We used three years of capture-mark-recapture data from three breeding ponds and a Cormack-Jolly-Seber model to estimate annual apparent survival for reintroduced populations of the federally threatened Chiricahua Leopard Frog ( Lithobates chiricahuensis ) at the Buenos Aires National Wildlife Refuge (BANWR), in the Altar Valley, Arizona, USA. To place our results in context, we also compiled published survival estimates for other ranids. Average apparent survival of Chiricahua Leopard Frogs at BANWR was 0.27 (95% CI [0.07, 0.74]) and average individual capture probability was 0.02 (95% CI [0, 0.05]). Our apparent survival estimate for Chiricahua Leopard Frogs is lower than for most other ranids and is not consistent with recent research that showed metapopulation viability in the Altar Valley is high. We suggest that low apparent survival may be indicative of high emigration rates. We recommend that future research should estimate emigration rates so that actual, rather than apparent, survival can be quantified to improve population viability assessments of threatened species following reintroduction efforts.

Copeia↗