Search USGS⌕ Search

Geology topics

P.S. Earle

Publications and source records attributed to P.S. Earle.

10 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2010

Identifying regions of strong scattering at the core-mantle boundary from analysis of PKKP precursor energy

We detect seismic scattering from the core-mantle boundary related to the phase PKKP (PK. KP) in data from small aperture seismic arrays in India and Canada. The detection of these scattered waves in data from small aperture arrays is new and allows a better characterization of the fine-scale structure of the deep Earth especially in the southern hemisphere. Their slowness vector is determined from array processing allowing location of the heterogeneities at the core-mantle boundary using back-projection techniques through 1D Earth models. We identify strong scattering at the core-mantle boundary (CMB) beneath the Caribbean, Patagonia and the Antarctic Peninsula as well as beneath southern Africa. An analysis of the scattering regions relative to sources and receivers indicates that these regions represent areas of increased scattering likely due to increased heterogeneities close to the CMB. The 1. Hz array data used in this study is most sensitive to heterogeneity with scale lengths of about 10. km. Given the small size of the scatterers, a chemical origin of the heterogeneities is likely. By comparing the location of the fine-scale heterogeneity to geodynamical models and tomographic images, we identify different scattering mechanisms in regions related to subduction (Caribbean and Patagonia) and dense thermo chemical piles (Southern Africa). ?? 2010 Elsevier B.V.

Earth and Planetary Science Letters↗
USGS2009

An Atlas of ShakeMaps and population exposure catalog for earthquake loss modeling

We present an Atlas of ShakeMaps and a catalog of human population exposures to moderate-to-strong ground shaking (EXPO-CAT) for recent historical earthquakes (1973-2007). The common purpose of the Atlas and exposure catalog is to calibrate earthquake loss models to be used in the US Geological Survey's Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER). The full ShakeMap Atlas currently comprises over 5,600 earthquakes from January 1973 through December 2007, with almost 500 of these maps constrained-to varying degrees-by instrumental ground motions, macroseismic intensity data, community internet intensity observations, and published earthquake rupture models. The catalog of human exposures is derived using current PAGER methodologies. Exposure to discrete levels of shaking intensity is obtained by correlating Atlas ShakeMaps with a global population database. Combining this population exposure dataset with historical earthquake loss data, such as PAGER-CAT, provides a useful resource for calibrating loss methodologies against a systematically-derived set of ShakeMap hazard outputs. We illustrate two example uses for EXPO-CAT; (1) simple objective ranking of country vulnerability to earthquakes, and; (2) the influence of time-of-day on earthquake mortality. In general, we observe that countries in similar geographic regions with similar construction practices tend to cluster spatially in terms of relative vulnerability. We also find little quantitative evidence to suggest that time-of-day is a significant factor in earthquake mortality. Moreover, earthquake mortality appears to be more systematically linked to the population exposed to severe ground shaking (Modified Mercalli Intensity VIII+). Finally, equipped with the full Atlas of ShakeMaps, we merge each of these maps and find the maximum estimated peak ground acceleration at any grid point in the world for the past 35 years. We subsequently compare this "composite ShakeMap" with existing global hazard models, calculating the spatial area of the existing hazard maps exceeded by the combined ShakeMap ground motions. In general, these analyses suggest that existing global, and regional, hazard maps tend to overestimate hazard. Both the Atlas of ShakeMaps and EXPO-CAT have many potential uses for examining earthquake risk and epidemiology. All of the datasets discussed herein are available for download on the PAGER Web page ( http://earthquake.usgs.gov/ eqcenter/pager/prodandref/ ). ?? 2009 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Bulletin of Earthquake Engineering↗
USGS2009

PAGER-CAT: A composite earthquake catalog for calibrating global fatality models

We have described the compilation and contents of PAGER-CAT, an earthquake catalog developed principally for calibrating earthquake fatality models. It brings together information from a range of sources in a comprehensive, easy to use digital format. Earthquake source information (e.g., origin time, hypocenter, and magnitude) contained in PAGER-CAT has been used to develop an Atlas of Shake Maps of historical earthquakes (Allen et al. 2008) that can subsequently be used to estimate the population exposed to various levels of ground shaking (Wald et al. 2008). These measures will ultimately yield improved earthquake loss models employing the uniform hazard mapping methods of ShakeMap. Currently PAGER-CAT does not consistently contain indicators of landslide and liquefaction occurrence prior to 1973. In future PAGER-CAT releases we plan to better document the incidence of these secondary hazards. This information is contained in some existing global catalogs but is far from complete and often difficult to parse. Landslide and liquefaction hazards can be important factors contributing to earthquake losses (e.g., Marano et al. unpublished). Consequently, the absence of secondary hazard indicators in PAGER-CAT, particularly for events prior to 1973, could be misleading to sorne users concerned with ground-shaking-related losses. We have applied our best judgment in the selection of PAGER-CAT's preferred source parameters and earthquake effects. We acknowledge the creation of a composite catalog always requires subjective decisions, but we believe PAGER-CAT represents a significant step forward in bringing together the best available estimates of earthquake source parameters and reports of earthquake effects. All information considered in PAGER-CAT is stored as provided in its native catalog so that other users can modify PAGER preferred parameters based on their specific needs or opinions. As with all catalogs, the values of some parameters listed in PAGER-CAT are highly uncertain, particularly the casualty numbers, which must be regarded as estimates rather than firm numbers for many earthquakes. Consequently, we encourage contributions from the seismology and earthquake engineering communities to further improve this resource via the Wikipedia page and personal communications, for the benefit of the whole community.

Seismological Research Letters↗
USGS2008

Rapid Assessment of earthquake-induced landsliding

The Pacific Northwest in the United States including Seattle, Washington, experienced unusually heavy rainfall in the winters of 1995/1996 and 1996/1997, which caused numerous landslides. Following these two winters, the City of Seattle resolved to reduce future landslide losses within its jurisdiction. By coincidence, in 1997 the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) began a five-year project designed to increase scientific understanding of all the natural hazards facing the Seattle area, including landslides. This article documents the convergence of the efforts of the City of Seattle, the State of Washington, and the USGS to understand the landslide hazards facing the Seattle area and to implement hazard reduction and mitigation of damage from landslides. Specifically, this article identifies how and where USGS information on landslide hazards fit in with efforts already undertaken by the City. This combined effort enabled the City of Seattle to understand its landslide hazards, to formulate public policy, to educate its citizens, and to coordinate the activities of the numerous departments under its jurisdiction with the ultimate goal of lessening the impact of landslides. The City used USGS maps and reports to guide decisions that prioritized funds for siting, maintaining and constructing public facilities in addition to meeting Washington State laws that mandated growth management and environmental review.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2008

Rapid exposure and loss estimates for the May 12, 2008 Mw 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake provided by the U.S. Geological Survey's PAGER system

One half-hour after the May 12th Mw 7.9 Wenchuan, China earthquake, the U.S. Geological Survey’s Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) system distributed an automatically generated alert stating that 1.2 million people were exposed to severe-to-extreme shaking (Modified Mercalli Intensity VIII or greater). It was immediately clear that a large-scale disaster had occurred. These alerts were widely distributed and referenced by the major media outlets and used by governments, scientific, and relief agencies to guide their responses. The PAGER alerts and Web pages included predictive ShakeMaps showing estimates of ground shaking, maps of population density, and a list of estimated intensities at impacted cities. Manual, revised alerts were issued in the following hours that included the dimensions of the fault rupture. Within a half-day, PAGER’s estimates of the population exposed to strong shaking levels stabilized at 5.2 million people. A coordinated research effort is underway to extend PAGER’s capability to include estimates of the number of casualties. We are pursuing loss models that will allow PAGER the flexibility to use detailed inventory and engineering results in regions where these data are available while also calculating loss estimates in regions where little is known about the type and strength of the built infrastructure. Prototype PAGER fatality estimates are currently implemented and can be manually triggered. In the hours following the Wenchuan earthquake, these models predicted fatalities in the tens of thousands.

Wenchua↗
USGS2008

Development of the U.S. Geological Survey's PAGER system (Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response)

The Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response (PAGER) System plays a primary alerting role for global earthquake disasters as part of the U.S. Geological Survey’s (USGS) response protocol. We provide an overview of the PAGER system, both of its current capabilities and our ongoing research and development. PAGER monitors the USGS’s near real-time U.S. and global earthquake origins and automatically identifies events that are of societal importance, well in advance of ground-truth or news accounts. Current PAGER notifications and Web pages estimate the population exposed to each seismic intensity level. In addition to being a useful indicator of potential impact, PAGER’s intensity/exposure display provides a new standard in the dissemination of rapid earthquake information. We are currently developing and testing a more comprehensive alert system that will include casualty estimates. This is motivated by the idea that an estimated range of possible number of deaths will aid in decisions regarding humanitarian response. Underlying the PAGER exposure and loss models are global earthquake ShakeMap shaking estimates, constrained as quickly as possible by finite-fault modeling and observed ground motions and intensities, when available. Loss modeling is being developed comprehensively with a suite of candidate models that range from fully empirical to largely analytical approaches. Which of these models is most appropriate for use in a particular earthquake depends on how much is known about local building stocks and their vulnerabilities. A first-order country-specific global building inventory has been developed, as have corresponding vulnerability functions. For calibrating PAGER loss models, we have systematically generated an Atlas of 5,000 ShakeMaps for significant global earthquakes during the last 36 years. For many of these, auxiliary earthquake source and shaking intensity data are also available. Refinements to the loss models are ongoing. Fundamental to such an alert system, we are also developing computational and communications infrastructure for rapid and robust operations and worldwide notifications. PAGER’s methodologies and datasets are being developed in an open environment to support other loss estimation efforts and provide avenues for outside collaboration and critique.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2002

Origins of high-frequency scattered waves near PKKP from large aperture seismic array data

This article identifies the likely origin of 1-Hz scattered waves in the vicinity of PKKP by comparing measurements of slowness and onset time to ray-theoretical predictions. The measurements are obtained from slant stacks of Large Aperture Seismic Array (LASA) data from 36 earthquakes and six explosions in the range 30??-116??. Three types of scattered waves explain the main features seen in the stacks, including: P scattered to PKP near the Earth's surface (P.PKP), PKKP scattered near its core-mantle-boundary (CMB) reflection point (PK.KP), and SKKP scattered near its CMB reflection point (SK.KP). The LASA stacks image the amplitude and slowness variations of the scattered waves with time. They also show where these waves can be detected and where they are free from contaminating arrivals. SK.KP waves rise above the noise approximately 100 sec before the onset time of the main SKKP arrival near 113??. Observations of PK.KP span 30??-100??. However, at distances greater than 50?? they suffer from P.PKP contamination. At distances less than 40?? the PK.KP last for about 280 sec. This is approximately 130 sec longer than the maximum ray-theoretical prediction for waves scattered at the CMB, indicating a possible combination of near-surface scattering and contributions from the overlying mantle.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2001

Unsuccessful initial search for a midmantle chemical boundary with seismic arrays

Compositional layering of the midmantle has been proposed to account for seismic and geochemical patterns [van der Hilst and Karason, 1999], and inferred radiogenic heat source concentrations [Kellogg et al., 1999]. Compositional layering would require thermal boundary layers both above and below an interface. We construct a minimal 1-D model of a mid-mantle boundary consistent with the observed nearly adiabatic compressional velocity structure [Dziewonksi and Anderson, 1981] and the proposed high heat flow from the lower mantle [Albarede and van der Hilst, 1999; Kellogg et al., 1999]. Ray tracing and reflectivity synthetic seismograms show that a distinct triplication is predicted for short-period P waves. Although topography on a boundary would cause uncertainty in the strength and the range of the triplication, many clear observations would be expected. We examine data from the US West Coast regional networks in the most likely distance range of 60?? to 70?? for a 1770-km-depth boundary, and find no evidence for P wave triplications.

Geophysical Research Letters↗
USGS2001

Distribution of fine-scale mantle heterogeneity from observations of Pdiff coda

We present stacked record sections of Global Seismic Network data that image the average amplitude and polarization of the high-frequency Pdiff coda and investigate their implications on the depth extent of fine-scale (~10 km) mantle heterogeneity. The extended 1-Hz coda lasts for at least 150 sec and is observed to a distance of 130??. The coda's polarization angle is about the same as the main Pdiff arrival (4.4 sec/deg) and is nearly constant with time. Previous studies show that multiple scattering from heterogeneity restricted to the lowermost mantle generates an extended Pdiff coda with a constant polarization. Here we present an alternative model that satisfies our Pdiff observations. The model consists of single scattering from weak (~1%) fine-scale (~2 km) structures distributed throughout the mantle. Although this model is nonunique, it demonstrates that Pdiff coda observations do not preclude the existence of scattering contributions from the entire mantle.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗