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P. Ryan Jackson

Publications and source records attributed to P. Ryan Jackson.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

Response of currents and water quality to changes in dam operations in Hoover Reservoir, Columbus, Ohio, August 24–28, 2015

Hoover Reservoir, an important drinking water supply for the City of Columbus, Ohio, has been the source of a series of taste and odor problems in treated drinking water during the past few years. These taste and odor problems were caused by the compounds geosmin and 2-methylisoborneol, which are thought to have been related to cyanobacteria blooms. In an effort to reduce the phosphorus available for cyanobacteria blooms at fall turnover, the City of Columbus began experimenting with the dam’s selective withdrawal system to remove excess phosphorus in the hypolimnion, which is released from bottom sediments during summer anoxic conditions. The U.S. Geological Survey completed two synoptic survey campaigns to assess distributions of water quality and water velocity in the lower part of Hoover Reservoir to provide information on the changes to reservoir dynamics caused by changing dam operations. One campaign (campaign 1) was done while water was being withdrawn from the reservoir through the dam’s middle gate and the other (campaign 2) while water was being withdrawn through the dam’s lower gate. Velocities were measured using an acoustic Doppler current profiler, and water-quality parameters were measured using an autonomous underwater vehicle equipped with water-quality sensors. Along with the water-quality and water-velocity data, meteorological, inflow and outflow discharges, and independent water-quality data were compiled to monitor changes in other parameters that affect reservoir behavior. Monthly nutrient data, collected by the City of Columbus, were also analyzed for trends in concentration during periods of expected stratification. Based on the results of the two campaigns, when compared to withdrawing water through the middle gate, withdrawing water through the lower gate seemed to increase shear-driven mixing across the thermocline, which resulted in an increase in the depth of the epilimnion throughout the lower part of Hoover Reservoir. The observations from this study, if repeatable and driven primarily by changes in gate operations, can inform nutrient management strategies for Hoover Reservoir. Increased mixing across the thermocline may potentially supply nutrients from the hypolimnion to algae in the epilimnion. Although operation of the lower gate has the potential to export nutrients from the hypolimnion (where the concentrations of nutrients have typically been higher during summer months) through two mechanisms (direct withdrawal and mixing into the epilimnion), supply of nutrients to the epilimnion through enhanced mixing could lead to a short-term increase in algal populations. Therefore, further study is recommended to (1) test the repeatability of the results of gate changes on water-quality distributions and circulation patterns in lower Hoover Reservoir, (2) identify the immediate effect of gate changes on nutrient concentrations in the water column, and (3) identify the best management practices to reduce the nutrient storage in the hypolimnion of Hoover Reservoir without increasing the potential for nutrient transport to the highly productive epilimnion.

Ohio↗

Geology, hydrology, water quality, and potential for interbasin invasive-species spread by way of the groundwater pathway near Lemont, Illinois

Invasive species such as Asian carps have the potential to travel in the egg, larval, or fry stages from the Des Plaines River (DPR) to the Chicago Sanitary and Ship Canal (CSSC) by way of the network of secondary-permeability features in the dolomite aquifer between these water bodies. Such movement would circumvent the electric fish barrier on the canal and allow Asian carps to travel unimpeded into Lake Michigan. This potential pathway for the spread of Asian carps and other invasive species was evaluated by the U.S. Geological Survey. The bed of the DPR appears to be in at least partial contact with the exposed bedrock in most of the area from about 1 mile west of Kingery Highway to Romeo Road (the study area). Areas of exposed bedrock are the most likely places for Asian carps to enter the groundwater system from the DPR. Water levels in the DPR typically are about 7–16 feet higher than those in the CSSC in most of the study area. This difference in water level provides the driving force for the potential spread of Asian carps from the DPR to the CSSC by way of groundwater. Groundwater flow (and potentially invasive-species movement) is through an interconnected network of permeable vertical and horizontal fractures within the Silurian dolomite bedrock. At least some of the fractures are associated with paleo-karst features. Several investigative techniques identified horizontal permeable fractures at about 546–552 feet above the North American Vertical Datum of 1988 within about 55 feet of the CSSC in the focus area between Lemont Road and Interstate 355. The elevation of the bottom of the CSSC in this area is about 551 feet, indicating that a direct conduit for flow of groundwater to the CSSC may be present. Wells further away from the CSSC in this area do not intercept fractures, so the fracture network may not be continuous between the DPR and the CSSC. These data are consistent with field observations of the secondary-permeability network along the CSSC walls, which indicate that the secondary-permeability features are completely filled with Pennsylvanian sediments within a few feet of the canal wall. Water-level data indicate the potential for flow from the DPR into the Silurian aquifer in the focus area, then from the aquifer to the CSSC. Water-level data also indicate that the fractures within the aquifer in the focus area are hydraulically well connected to the CSSC but not to the DPR, indicating that flow from the DPR to the groundwater system may not be substantial or rapid. Water-quality data in the CSSC and the DPR show similar values and trends and are affected by diel and longer term variations in climate and precipitation. However, the values and trends in water quality in the groundwater system tended to be substantially different from those in the DPR and the CSSC, indicating that the DPR and the CSSC do not appreciably recharge the groundwater system. Water-quality and flow data do indicate that groundwater discharges to the CSSC in part of the focus area. The absence of substantial hydraulic interaction between the groundwater and the DPR is supported by the absence of detectable concentrations of the dye tracer added to the DPR in groundwater in the focus area, which indicates that water from the DPR requires more than 2 weeks to move into the monitored parts of the groundwater system under approximately typical hydraulic conditions. The totality of the data indicates that there is minimal potential for the inter-basin spread of Asian carps by way of the groundwater pathway between Romeo Road and Stickney, Illinois.

Illinois↗

Numerical modeling of simultaneous tracer release and piscicide treatment for invasive species control in the Chicago Sanitary and Ship Canal, Chicago, Illinois

In December 2009, during a piscicide treatment targeting the invasive Asian carp in the Chicago Sanitary and Ship Canal, Rhodamine WT dye was released to track and document the transport and dispersion of the piscicide. In this study, two modeling approaches are presented to reproduce the advection and dispersion of the dye tracer (and piscicide), a one-dimensional analytical solution and a three-dimensional numerical model. The two approaches were compared with field measurements of concentration and their applicability is discussed. Acoustic Doppler current profiler measurements were used to estimate the longitudinal dispersion coefficients at ten cross sections, which were taken as reference for calibrating the longitudinal dispersion coefficient in the one-dimensional analytical solution. While the analytical solution is fast, relatively simple, and can fairly accurately predict the core of the observed concentration time series at points downstream, it does not capture the tail of the breakthrough curves. These tails are well reproduced by the three-dimensional model, because it accounts for the effects of dead zones and a power plant which withdraws nearly 80 % of the water from the canal for cooling purposes before returning it back to the canal.

Illinois↗

Simulation of hypothetical Asian carp egg and larvae development and transport in the Lockport, Brandon Road, Dresden Island, and Marseilles Pools of the Illinois Waterway by use of the Fluvial Egg Drift Simulator (FluEgg) model

As part of the Great Lakes and Mississippi River Interbasin Study, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) is conducting an assessment of the vulnerability of the Chicago Area Waterway System and Des Plaines River to Asian carp (specifically, Hypophthalmichthys nobilis (bighead carp) and Hypophthalmichthys molitrix (silver carp)) spawning and recruitment. As part of this assessment, the USACE requested the help of the U.S. Geological Survey in predicting the fate and transport of Asian carp eggs hypothetically spawned at the electric dispersal barrier on the Chicago Sanitary and Ship Canal and downstream of the Brandon Road Lock and Dam on the Des Plaines River under dry weather flow and high water temperature conditions. The Fluvial Egg Drift Simulator (FluEgg) model predicted that approximately 80 percent of silver carp eggs spawned near the electric dispersal barrier would hatch within the Lockport and Brandon Road pools (as close as 3.6 miles downstream of the barrier) and approximately 82 percent of the silver carp eggs spawned near the Brandon Road Dam would hatch in the Des Plaines River (as close as 1.6 miles downstream from the gates of Brandon Road Lock). Extension of the FluEgg model to include the fate and transport of larvae until gas bladder inflation—the point at which the larvae begin to leave the drift—suggests that eggs spawned at the electric dispersal barrier would reach the gas bladder inflation stage primarily within the Dresden Island Pool, and those spawned at the Brandon Road Dam would reach this stage primarily within the Marseilles and Starved Rock Pools.

Illinois↗

Entrainment, retention, and transport of freely swimming fish in junction gaps between commercial barges operating on the Illinois Waterway

Large Electric Dispersal Barriers were constructed in the Chicago Sanitary and Ship Canal (CSSC) to prevent the transfer of invasive fish species between the Mississippi River Basin and the Great Lakes Basin while simultaneously allowing the passage of commercial barge traffic. We investigated the potential for entrainment, retention, and transport of freely swimming fish within large gaps (> 50 m 3 ) created at junction points between barges. Modified mark and capture trials were employed to assess fish entrainment, retention, and transport by barge tows. A multi-beam sonar system enabled estimation of fish abundance within barge junction gaps. Barges were also instrumented with acoustic Doppler velocity meters to map the velocity distribution in the water surrounding the barge and in the gap formed at the junction of two barges. Results indicate that the water inside the gap can move upstream with a barge tow at speeds near the barge tow travel speed. Water within 1 m to the side of the barge junction gaps was observed to move upstream with the barge tow. Observed transverse and vertical water velocities suggest pathways by which fish may potentially be entrained into barge junction gaps. Results of mark and capture trials provide direct evidence that small fish can become entrained by barges, retained within junction gaps, and transported over distances of at least 15.5 km. Fish entrained within the barge junction gap were retained in that space as the barge tow transited through locks and the Electric Dispersal Barriers, which would be expected to impede fish movement upstream.

Illinois↗

Three-dimensional numerical modeling of mixing at the junction of the Calumet-Sag Channel and the Chicago Sanitary and Ship Canal: A comparison between density-driven and advection-driven mixing

The Chicago Area Waterway System (CAWS) includes the Chicago Sanitary and Ship Canal (CSSC) and the Calumet-Sag Channel (Cal-Sag), the two primary, man-made connections between the Mississippi River Basin and the Great Lakes. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) monitors diversion of Great Lakes water at a streamgage just downstream of the confluence of the CSSC and Cal-Sag (known as Sag Junction). Previous studies have explored the complex hydrodynamics in the CAWS near Sag Junction and at the USGS streamgage near Lemont, Illinois. The current study explores the mixing at Sag Junction which can be purely advection-driven or driven by density differences between the two branches. The current study simulates and analyzes two cases: 1) the density of water in CSSC is greater than in the Cal-Sag, 2) the density of the CSSC water is less than in the Cal-Sag. The density difference between the branches was found to play a major role in influencing the mixing process compared with purely advection-driven mixing. Density differences created near-bed gravity currents, some of which intruded upstream into the CSSC or Cal-Sag creating bi-directional flows. The phenomenon of double plunging was observed, along with formation of a recirculation zone between the two plunging fronts. Local mixing at the confluence was enhanced by density differences between the two channels, but mixing downstream from the confluence was impeded due to formation of a stabilizing stratification.

Conference Paper↗

Seiche-induced unsteady flows in the Huron-Erie Corridor: Spectral analysis of oscillations in stage and discharge in the St. Clair and Detroit Rivers

Animations of highly dynamic water-surface profiles through the St. Clair and Detroit Rivers have identified transient disturbances propagating from Lakes Huron and Erie into the St. Clair and Detroit Rivers, respectively. To determine any relation to seiche and tidal oscillations on Lakes Huron and Erie, a spectral analysis was performed on stage and discharge data from the Huron-Erie Corridor. There is excellent agreement between the observed oscillations in stage and discharge in the St. Clair and Detroit Rivers and the documented frequencies of oscillations in Lakes Huron and Erie. The fundamental seiche, some higher-order seiche modes, and the semidiurnal tide from Lakes Huron and Erie are evident in the stage and discharge records at gages along the St. Clair and Detroit Rivers, respectively. Lake St. Clair appears to act as a damper in the system. If not accounted for, these oscillations may complicate monitoring, modeling, and restoration of this system.

Conference Paper↗

A laboratory investigation of the suspension, transport, and settling of silver carp eggs using synthetic surrogates

Asian carp eggs are semi-buoyant and must remain suspended in the water to survive, supported by the turbulence of the flow, until they hatch and develop the ability to swim. Analysis of the transport and dispersal patterns of Asian carp eggs will facilitate the development and implementation of control strategies to target the early life stages. Experimenting with Asian carp eggs is complicated due to practical issues of obtaining eggs in close proximity to experimental facilities and extensive handling of eggs tends to damage them. Herein, we describe laboratory experiments using styrene beads (4.85 mm diameter) as synthetic surrogate eggs to mimic the physical properties of water-hardened silver carp eggs. The first set of experiments was completed in a rectangular vertical column filled with salt water. The salinity of the water was adjusted in an iterative fashion to obtain a close approximation of the fall velocity of the styrene beads to the mean fall velocity of silver carp water-hardened eggs. The terminal fall velocity of synthetic eggs was measured using an image processing method. The second set of experiments was performed in a temperature-controlled recirculatory flume with a sediment bed. The flume was filled with salt water, and synthetic eggs were allowed to drift under different flow conditions. Drifting behavior, suspension conditions, and settling characteristics of synthetic eggs were observed. At high velocities, eggs were suspended and distributed through the water column. Eggs that touched the sediment bed were re-entrained by the flow. Eggs saltated when they touched the bed, especially at moderate velocities and with a relatively flat bed. At lower velocities, some settling of the eggs was observed. With lower velocities and a flat bed, eggs were trapped near the walls of the flume. When bedforms were present, eggs were trapped in the lee of the bedforms in addition to being trapped near the flume walls. Results of this research study provide insights about transport, suspension, and dispersion of silver carp eggs. The knowledge gained from this study is useful to characterize the critical hydrodynamic conditions of the flow at which surrogates for silver carp water-hardened eggs settle out of suspension, and provides insight into how eggs may interact with riverbed sediments and morphology.

PLoS ONE↗

Implications of climate change on the heat budget of lentic systems used for power station cooling: Case study Clinton Lake, Illinois

We use a numerical model to analyze the impact of climate change--in particular higher air temperatures--on a nuclear power station that recirculates the water from a reservoir for cooling. The model solves the hydrodynamics, the transfer of heat in the reservoir, and the energy balance at the surface. We use the numerical model to (i) quantify the heat budget in the reservoir and determine how this budget is affected by the combined effect of the power station and climate change and (ii) quantify the impact of climate change on both the downstream thermal pollution and the power station capacity. We consider four different scenarios of climate change. Results of simulations show that climate change will reduce the ability to dissipate heat to the atmosphere and therefore the cooling capacity of the reservoir. We observed an increase of 25% in the thermal load downstream of the reservoir, and a reduction in the capacity of the power station of 18% during the summer months for the worst-case climate change scenario tested. These results suggest that climate change is an important threat for both the downstream thermal pollution and the generation of electricity by power stations that use lentic systems for cooling.

Illinois↗

Application of the FluEgg model to predict transport of Asian carp eggs in the Saint Joseph River (Great Lakes tributary)

The Fluvial Egg Drift Simulator (FluEgg) is a three-dimensional Lagrangian model that simulates the movement and development of Asian carp eggs until hatching based on the physical characteristics of the flow field and the physical and biological characteristics of the eggs. This tool provides information concerning egg development and spawning habitat suitability including: egg plume location, egg vertical and travel time distribution, and egg-hatching risk. A case study of the simulation of Asian carp eggs in the Lower Saint Joseph River, a tributary of Lake Michigan, is presented. The river hydrodynamic input for FluEgg was generated in two ways — using hydroacoustic data and using HEC-RAS model data. The HEC-RAS model hydrodynamic input data were used to simulate 52 scenarios covering a broad range of flows and water temperatures with the eggs at risk of hatching ranging from 0 to 93% depending on river conditions. FluEgg simulations depict the highest percentage of eggs at risk of hatching occurs at the lowest discharge and at peak water temperatures. Analysis of these scenarios illustrates how the interactive relation among river length, hydrodynamics, and water temperature influence egg transport and hatching risk. An improved version of FluEgg, which more realistically simulates dispersion and egg development, is presented. Also presented is a graphical user interface that facilitates the use of FluEgg and provides a set of post-processing analysis tools to support management decision-making regarding the prevention and control of Asian carp reproduction in rivers with or without Asian carp populations.

Michigan↗

Integrated synoptic surveys of the hydrodynamics and water-quality distributions in two Lake Michigan rivermouth mixing zones using an autonomous underwater vehicle and a manned boat

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the National Monitoring Network for U.S. Coastal Waters and Tributaries, launched a pilot project in 2010 to determine the value of integrated synoptic surveys of rivermouths using autonomous underwater vehicle technology in response to a call for rivermouth research, which includes study domains that envelop both the fluvial and lacustrine boundaries of the rivermouth mixing zone. The pilot project was implemented at two Lake Michigan rivermouths with largely different scales, hydrodynamics, and settings, but employing primarily the same survey techniques and methods. The Milwaukee River Estuary Area of Concern (AOC) survey included measurements in the lower 2 to 3 miles of the Milwaukee, Menomonee, and Kinnickinnic Rivers and inner and outer Milwaukee Harbor. This estuary is situated in downtown Milwaukee, Wisconsin, and is the most populated basin that flows directly into Lake Michigan. In contrast, the Manitowoc rivermouth has a relatively small harbor separating the rivermouth from Lake Michigan, and the Manitowoc River Watershed is primarily agricultural. Both the Milwaukee and Manitowoc rivermouths are unregulated and allow free exchange of water with Lake Michigan. This pilot study of the Milwaukee River Estuary and Manitowoc rivermouth using an autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) paired with a manned survey boat resulted in high spatial and temporal resolution datasets of basic water-quality parameter distributions and hydrodynamics. The AUV performed well in these environments and was found primarily well-suited for harbor and nearshore surveys of three-dimensional water-quality distributions. Both case studies revealed that the use of a manned boat equipped with an acoustic Doppler current profiler (ADCP) and multiparameter sonde (and an optional flow-through water-quality sampling system) was the best option for riverine surveys. To ensure that the most accurate and highest resolution velocity data were collected concurrently with the AUV surveys, the pilot study used a manned boat equipped with an ADCP. Combining the AUV and manned boat datasets resulted in datasets that are essentially continuous from the fluvial through the lacustrine zones of a rivermouth. Whereas the pilot studies were completed during low flows on the tributaries, completion of surveys at higher flows using the same techniques is possible, but the use of the AUV would be limited to areas with relatively low velocities (less than 2 feet per second) such as the harbors and nearshore zones of Lake Michigan. Overall, this pilot study aimed at evaluation of AUV technology for integrated synoptic surveys of rivermouth mixing zones was successful, and the techniques and methods employed in this pilot study should be transferrable to other sites with similar success. The use of the AUV provided significant time savings compared to traditional sampling techniques. For example, the survey of outer Milwaukee Harbor using the AUV required less than 7 hours for approximately 600 profiles compared to the 150 hours it would have taken using traditional methods in a manned boat (a 95 percent reduction in man-hours). The integrated datasets resulting from the AUV and manned survey boat are of high value and present a picture of the mixing and hydrodynamics of these highly dynamic, highly variable rivermouth mixing zones from the relatively well-mixed fluvial environment through the rivermouth to the stratified lacustrine receiving body of Lake Michigan. Such datasets not only allow researchers to understand more about the physical processes occurring in these rivermouths, but they provide high spatial resolution data required for interpretation of relations between disparate point samples and calibration and validation of numerical models.

Wisconsin↗

Development of a Fluvial Egg Drift Simulator to evaluate the transport and dispersion of Asian carp eggs in rivers

Asian carp are migrating towards the Great Lakes and are threatening to invade this ecosystem, hence there is an immediate need to control their population. The transport of Asian carp eggs in potential spawning rivers is an important factor in its life history and recruitment success. An understanding of the transport, development, and fate of Asian carp eggs has the potential to create prevention, management, and control strategies before the eggs hatch and develop the ability to swim. However, there is not a clear understanding of the hydrodynamic conditions at which the eggs are transported and kept in suspension. This knowledge is imperative because of the current assumption that suspension is required for the eggs to survive. Herein, FluEgg (Fluvial Egg Drift Simulator), a three-dimensional Lagrangian model capable of evaluating the influence of flow velocity, shear dispersion and turbulent diffusion on the transport and dispersal patterns of Asian carp eggs is presented. The model's variables include not only biological behavior (growth rate, density changes) but also the physical characteristics of the flow field, such as mean velocities and eddy diffusivities. The performance of the FluEgg model was evaluated using observed data from published flume experiments conducted in China with water-hardened Asian carp eggs as subjects. FluEgg simulations show a good agreement with the experimental data. The model was also run with observed data from the Sandusky River in Ohio to provide a real-world demonstration case. This research will support the identification of critical hydrodynamic conditions (e.g., flow velocity, depth, and shear velocity) to maintain eggs in suspension, assist in the evaluation of suitable spawning rivers for Asian carp populations and facilitate the development of prevention, control and management strategies for Asian carp species in rivers and water bodies.

Ecological Modelling↗

First evidence of grass carp recruitment in the Great Lakes Basin

We use aging techniques, ploidy analysis, and otolith microchemistry to assess whether four grass carp Ctenopharyngodon idella captured from the Sandusky River, Ohio were the result of natural reproduction within the Lake Erie Basin. All four fish were of age 1 +. Multiple lines of evidence indicate that these fish were not aquaculture-reared and that they were most likely the result of successful reproduction in the Sandusky River. First, at least two of the fish were diploid; diploid grass carp cannot legally be released in the Great Lakes Basin. Second, strontium:calcium (Sr:Ca) ratios were elevated in all four grass carp from the Sandusky River, with elevated Sr:Ca ratios throughout the otolith transect, compared to grass carp from Missouri and Arkansas ponds. This reflects the high Sr:Ca ratio of the Sandusky River, and indicates that these fish lived in a high-strontium environment throughout their entire lives. Third, Sandusky River fish were higher in Sr:Ca ratio variability than fish from ponds, reflecting the high but spatially and temporally variable strontium concentrations of southwestern Lake Erie tributaries, and not the stable environment of pond aquaculture. Fourth, Sr:Ca ratios in the grass carp from the Sandusky River were lower in their 2011 growth increment (a high water year) than the 2012 growth increment (a low water year), reflecting the observed inverse relationship between discharge and strontium concentration in these rivers. We conclude that these four grass carp captured from the Sandusky River are most likely the result of natural reproduction within the Lake Erie Basin.

Ohio↗

Integrated synoptic surveys using an autonomous underwater vehicle and manned boats

Traditional surface-water surveys are being combined with autonomous technology to produce integrated surveys of bathymetry, water quality, and velocity in inland lakes and reservoirs. This new technology provides valuable, high-resolution, integrated data that allow a systems-based approach to understanding common environmental problems. This fact sheet presents several example applications of integrated surveys within inland lakes and coastal Lake Michigan and Lake Erie.

Lake Erie, Lake Michigan↗

Visualizing flow fields using acoustic Doppler current profilers and the Velocity Mapping Toolbox

The purpose of this fact sheet is to provide examples of how the U.S. Geological Survey is using acoustic Doppler current profilers for much more than routine discharge measurements. These instruments are capable of mapping complex three-dimensional flow fields within rivers, lakes, and estuaries. Using the Velocity Mapping Toolbox to process the ADCP data allows detailed visualization of the data, providing valuable information for a range of studies and applications.

Fact Sheet↗

Groundwater and surface-water interactions near White Bear Lake, Minnesota, through 2011

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the White Bear Lake Conservation District, the Minnesota Pollution Control Agency, the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources, and other State, county, municipal, and regional planning agencies, watershed organizations, and private organizations, conducted a study to characterize groundwater and surface-water interactions near White Bear Lake through 2011. During 2010 and 2011, White Bear Lake and other lakes in the northeastern part of the Twin Cities Metropolitan Area were at historically low levels. Previous periods of lower water levels in White Bear Lake correlate with periods of lower precipitation; however, recent urban expansion and increased pumping from the Prairie du Chien-Jordan aquifer have raised the question of whether a decline in precipitation is the primary cause for the recent water-level decline in White Bear Lake. Understanding and quantifying the amount of groundwater inflow to a lake and water discharge from a lake to aquifers is commonly difficult but is important in the management of lake levels. Three methods were used in the study to assess groundwater and surface-water interactions on White Bear Lake: (1) a historical assessment (1978-2011) of levels in White Bear Lake, local groundwater levels, and their relation to historical precipitation and groundwater withdrawals in the White Bear Lake area; (2) recent (2010-11) hydrologic and water-quality data collected from White Bear Lake, other lakes, and wells; and (3) water-balance assessments for White Bear Lake in March and August 2011. An analysis of covariance between average annual lake-level change and annual precipitation indicated the relation between the two variables was significantly different from 2003 through 2011 compared with 1978 through 2002, requiring an average of 4 more inches of precipitation per year to maintain the lake level. This shift in the linear relation between annual lake-level change and annual precipitation indicated the net effect of the non-precipitation terms on the water balance has changed relative to precipitation. The average amount of precipitation required each year to maintain the lake level has increased from 33 inches per year during 1978-2002 to 37 inches per year during 2003-11. The combination of lower precipitation and an increase in groundwater withdrawals can explain the change in the lake-level response to precipitation. Annual and summer groundwater withdrawals from the Prairie du Chien-Jordan aquifer have more than doubled from 1980 through 2010. Results from a regression model constructed with annual lake-level change, annual precipitation minus evaporation, and annual volume of groundwater withdrawn from the Prairie du Chien-Jordan aquifer indicated groundwater withdrawals had a greater effect than precipitation minus evaporation on water levels in the White Bear Lake area for all years since 2003. The recent (2003-11) decline in White Bear Lake reflects the declining water levels in the Prairie du Chien-Jordan aquifer; increases in groundwater withdrawals from this aquifer are a likely cause for declines in groundwater levels and lake levels. Synoptic, static groundwater-level and lake-level measurements in March/April and August 2011 indicated groundwater was potentially flowing into White Bear Lake from glacial aquifers to the northeast and south, and lake water was potentially discharging from White Bear Lake to the underlying glacial and Prairie du Chien-Jordan aquifers and glacial aquifers to the northwest. Groundwater levels in the Prairie du Chien-Jordan aquifer below White Bear Lake are approximately 0 to 19 feet lower than surface-water levels in the lake, indicating groundwater from the aquifer likely does not flow into White Bear Lake, but lake water may discharge into the aquifer. Groundwater levels from March/April to August 2011 declined more than 10 feet in the Prairie du Chien-Jordan aquifer south of White Bear Lake and to the north in Hugo, Minnesota. Water-quality analyses of pore water from nearshore lake-sediment and well-water samples, seepage-meter measurements, and hydraulic-head differences measured in White Bear Lake also indicated groundwater was potentially flowing into White Bear Lake from shallow glacial aquifers to the east and south. Negative temperature anomalies determined in shallow waters in the water-quality survey conducted in White Bear Lake indicated several shallow-water areas where groundwater may be flowing into the lake from glacial aquifers below the lake. Cool lake-sediment temperatures (less than 18 degrees Celsius) were measured in eight areas along the northeast, east, south, and southwest shores of White Bear Lake, indicating potential areas where groundwater may flow into the lake. Stable isotope analyses of well-water, precipitation, and lake-water samples indicated wells downgradient from White Bear Lake screened in the glacial buried aquifer or open to the Prairie du Chien-Jordan aquifer receive a mixture of surface water and groundwater; the largest surface-water contributions are in wells closer to White Bear Lake. A wide range in oxygen-18/oxygen-16 and deuterium/protium ratios was measured in well-water samples, indicating different sources of water are supplying water to the wells. Well water with oxygen-18/oxygen-16 and deuterium/protium ratios that plot close to the meteoric water line consisted mostly of groundwater because deuterium/protium ratios for most groundwater usually are similar to ratios for rainwater and snow, plotting close to meteoric water lines. Well water with oxygen-18/oxygen-16 and deuterium/protium ratios that plot between the meteoric water line and ratios for the surface-water samples from White Bear Lake consists of a mixture of surface water and groundwater; the percentage of each source varies relative to its ratios. White Bear Lake is the likely source of the surface water to the wells that have a mixture of surface water and groundwater because (1) it is the only large, deep lake near these wells; (2) these wells are near and downgradient from White Bear Lake; and (3) these wells obtain their water from relatively deep depths, and White Bear Lake is the deepest lake in that area. The percentages of surface-water contribution to the three wells screened in the glacial buried aquifer receiving surface water were 16, 48, and 83 percent. The percentages of surface-water contribution ranged from 5 to 79 percent for the five wells open to the Prairie du Chien-Jordan aquifer receiving surface water; wells closest to White Bear Lake had the largest percentages of surface-water contribution. Water-balance analysis of White Bear Lake in March and August 2011 indicated a potential discharge of 2.8 and 4.5 inches per month, respectively, over the area of the lake from the lake to local aquifers. Most of the sediments from a 12.4-foot lake core collected at the deepest part of White Bear Lake consisted of silts, sands, and gravels likely slumped from shallower waters, with a very low amount of low-permeability, organic material.

Minnesota↗

Evaluation of the potential for hysteresis in index-velocity ratings for the Chicago Sanitary and Ship Canal near Lemont, Illinois

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) is responsible for monitoring flows in the Chicago Sanitary and Ship Canal (CSSC) near Lemont, Illinois, as a part of the Lake Michigan Diversion Accounting overseen by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Chicago District. Lake Michigan Diversion Accounting is mandated by a U.S. Supreme Court decree in order to monitor, and limit, the State of Illinois’ annual diversion of Great Lakes water through the manmade CSSC. Every 5 years, a technical review committee consisting of practicing engineers and academics reviews USGS streamgaging practices in the CSSC near Lemont, Illinois. The sixth technical review committee expressed concern that the index-velocity rating—the method used to estimate mean cross-sectional velocity from a measured index velocity—may be subject to hysteresis at this site because of the unique, unsteady hydraulics of the canal. Hysteresis in index-velocity ratings can occur at sites where the flow distribution in the channel varies significantly between the rising and falling limbs of the hydrograph for the same discharge. Presently, hysteresis in index-velocity ratings has been documented only in tidally affected sites. This report investigates whether hysteresis can occur at this nontidal site, and the conditions under which it is likely to occur, by using both a theoretical approach and a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model. The theoretical analysis investigated the conditions required for hysteresis in the index-velocity rating, and the modeling analysis focused on the effect of the timing of the inflows from the CSSC and the Cal-Sag Channel on the potential for hysteresis and whether highly resolved simulations of actual high-flow events show any evidence of hysteresis. Based on both a theoretical analysis using observed historical data and an analysis using a three-dimensional hydrodynamic model, there is no conclusive evidence for the existence of hysteresis in the index-velocity rating at the USGS streamgage on the CSSC near Lemont, Illinois. Although the theoretical analysis indicated the possibility of hysteresis at this site, the hydrodynamic conditions required to generate hysteresis are not present at this site based on historical data. Ongoing streamgaging practices at this site will use the information in this report and include periodic assessment of the index-velocity rating for any signs of hysteresis that might result from future changes to the operation of this manmade canal.

Illinois↗

Hydraulic and water-quality data collection for the investigation of Great Lakes tributaries for Asian carp spawning and egg-transport suitability

If the invasive Asian carps (bighead carp Hypophthalmichthys nobilis and silver carp Hypophthalmichthys molitrix ) migrate to the Great Lakes, in spite of the efforts to stop their advancement, these species will require the fast-flowing water of the Great Lakes tributaries for spawning and recruitment in order to establish a growing population. Two Lake Michigan tributaries (the Milwaukee and St. Joseph Rivers) and two Lake Erie tributaries (the Maumee and Sandusky Rivers) were investigated to determine if these tributaries possess the hydraulic and water-quality characteristics to allow successful spawning of Asian carps. To examine this issue, standard U.S. Geological Survey sampling protocols and instrumentation for discharge and water-quality measurements were used, together with differential global positioning system data for georeferencing. Non-standard data-processing techniques, combined with detailed laboratory analysis of Asian carp egg characteristics, allowed an assessment of the transport capabilities of each of these four tributaries. This assessment is based solely on analysis of observed data and did not utilize the collected data for detailed transport modeling. All four tributaries exhibited potential settling zones for Asian carp eggs both within the estuaries and river mouths and within the lower 100 kilometers (km) of the river. Dams played a leading role in defining these settling zones, with the exception of dams on the Sandusky River. The impoundments created by many of the larger dams on these rivers acted to sufficiently decelerate the flows and allowed the shear velocity to drop below the settling velocity for Asian carp eggs, which would allow the eggs to fall out of suspension and settle on the bottom where it is thought the eggs would perish. While three rivers exhibited these settling zones upstream of the larger dams, not all settling zones are likely to have such effects on egg transport. The Milwaukee River exhibited only a short settling zone upstream of the Grafton Dam, whereas the St. Joseph and Maumee Rivers both had extensive settling zones (>5 km) behind major dams. These longer settling zones are likely to capture more eggs than shorter settling reaches. All four rivers exhibited settling zones at their river mouths, with the Lake Erie tributaries having much larger settling zones extending more than 10 km up the tributaries. While hydraulic data from all four rivers indicated settling of eggs is possible in some locations, all four rivers also exhibited sufficient temperatures, water-quality characteristics, turbulence, and transport times outside of settling zones for successful suspension and development of Asian carp eggs to the hatching stage before the threat of settlement. These observed data indicate that these four Great Lakes tributaries have sufficient hydraulic and water-quality characteristics to support successful spawning and recruitment of Asian carps. The data indicate that with the right temperature and flow conditions, river reaches as short as 25 km may allow Asian carp eggs sufficient time to develop to hatching. Additionally, examining the relation between critical shear velocity and mean velocity, egg settling appears to take place at mean velocities in the range of 15–25 centimeters per second, a much lower value than is generally cited in the literature. A first-order estimate of the minimum transport velocity for Asian carp eggs in a river can be obtained by using mean flow depth and river substrate data, and curves were constructed to show this relation. These findings would expand the number of possible tributaries suitable for Asian carp spawning and contribute to the understanding of how hydraulic and water-quality information can be used to screen additional rivers in the future.

Great Lakes↗