Geology topics

P. Okubo

Publications and source records attributed to P. Okubo.

15 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2023

The 2023 US 50-State National Seismic Hazard Model: Overview and implications

The US National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) was updated in 2023 for all 50 states using new science on seismicity, fault ruptures, ground motions, and probabilistic techniques to produce a standard of practice for public policy and other engineering applications (defined for return periods greater than ∼475 or less than ∼10,000 years). Changes in 2023 time-independent seismic hazard (both increases and decreases compared to previous NSHMs) are substantial because the new model considers more data and updated earthquake rupture forecasts and ground-motion components. In developing the 2023 model, we tried to apply best available or applicable science based on advice of co-authors, more than 50 reviewers, and hundreds of hazard scientists and end-users, who attended public workshops and provided technical inputs. The hazard assessment incorporates new catalogs, declustering algorithms, gridded seismicity models, magnitude-scaling equations, fault-based structural and deformation models, multi-fault earthquake rupture forecast models, semi-empirical and simulation-based ground-motion models, and site amplification models conditioned on shear-wave velocities of the upper 30 m of soil and deeper sedimentary basin structures. Seismic hazard calculations yield hazard curves at hundreds of thousands of sites, ground-motion maps, uniform-hazard response spectra, and disaggregations developed for pseudo-spectral accelerations at 21 oscillator periods and two peak parameters, Modified Mercalli Intensity, and 8 site classes required by building codes and other public policy applications. Tests show the new model is consistent with past ShakeMap intensity observations. Sensitivity and uncertainty assessments ensure resulting ground motions are compatible with known hazard information and highlight the range and causes of variability in ground motions. We produce several impact products including building seismic design criteria, intensity maps, planning scenarios, and engineering risk assessments showing the potential physical and social impacts. These applications provide a basis for assessing, planning, and mitigating the effects of future earthquakes.

Earthquake Spectra↗

USGS2021

2021 U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model for the State of Hawaii

The 2021 U.S. National Seismic Hazard Model (NSHM) for the State of Hawaii updates the two-decades-old former model by incorporating new data and modeling techniques to improve the underlying ground shaking forecasts of tectonic-fault, tectonic-flexure, volcanic, and caldera collapse earthquakes. Two earthquake ground shaking hazard models (public policy and research) are produced that differ in how they account for declustered catalogs. The earthquake source model is based on (1) declustered earthquake catalogs smoothed with adaptive smoothing methods, (2) earthquake rate forecasts based on three temporally varying 60-year time periods, (3) maximum magnitude models that extend to larger earthquakes than previously considered, (4) a separate Kīlauea-specific seismogenic caldera collapse model which accounts for clustered event behavior observed during the 2018 eruption, and (5) fault ruptures that consider historic seismicity, GPS-based strain rates, and a new Quaternary fault database. Two new Hawaii-specific ground motion models (GMMs) and five additional global models consistent with Hawaii shaking data are used to forecast ground shaking at 23 spectral periods and peak parameters. Site effects are modeled using western U.S. and Hawaii specific empirical equations and provide shaking forecasts for eight site classes. For most sites the new model results in similar spectral accelerations as those in the 2001 NSHM, with a few exceptions caused mostly by GMM changes. Ground motions are highest in the southern portion of the Island of Hawai‘i due to high rates of forecasted earthquakes on décollement faults. Shaking decays to the northwest where lower earthquake rates result from flexure of the tectonic plate. Large epistemic uncertainties in source characterizations and GMMs lead to an overall high uncertainty (more than a factor of 3) in ground shaking at Honolulu and Hilo. The new shaking model indicates significant chances of slight or greater damaging ground motions across most of the island chain.

Hawai'i↗

USGS2019

Decrease in seismic velocity observed prior to the 2018 eruption of Kilauea volcano with ambient seismic noise interferometry

The 2018 Kilauea eruption was a complex event that included deformation and eruption at the summit and along the middle and lower East Rift Zones. We use ambient seismic noise interferometry to measure time-lapse changes in seismic velocity of the volcanic edifice prior to the 2018 Kilauea Lower East Rift Zone eruption. Our results show that seismic velocities increase in relation to gradual inflation between 1 March and 20 April. In the ten days prior to the May 3rd eruption, a rapid seismic velocity decrease occurs even though the summit is still undergoing inflation. We show that inter-eruptive inflation/deflation is correlated with surface deformation, while the velocity decrease prior to East Rift Zone eruption is likely due to accumulating damage induced by the pressure exerted by the magma reservoir on the surrounding edifice. The accumulating damage and subsequent decrease in bulk edifice strength likely facilitates the transport of magma from the summit reservoir to the Middle East Rift Zone.

Hawaii↗

USGS2019

The 2018 rift eruption and summit collapse of Kilauea Volcano

In 2018, Kīlauea Volcano experienced its largest lower East Rift Zone (LERZ) eruption and caldera collapse in at least 200 years. After collapse of the Pu'u 'Ō'ō vent on 30 April, magma propagated downrift. Eruptive fissures opened in the LERZ on 3 May, eventually extending ~6.8 km. A 4 May earthquake (M6.9) produced ~5 m of fault slip. Lava erupted at rates exceeding 100 m3/s, eventually covering 35.5 km2. The summit magma system partially drained, producing minor explosions and near-daily collapses releasing energy equivalent to M4.7-M5.4 earthquakes. Activity declined rapidly on 4 August. Summit collapse and lava flow volume estimates are roughly equivalent--about 0.8 km3. Careful historical observation and monitoring of Kīlauea enabled successful forecasting of hazardous events.

Hawaii↗

USGS2017

Improving the Hawaiian seismic network for earthquake early warning

The motivation for earthquake early warning (EEW) is the fact that in many applications a few extra seconds of notice ahead of the about-imminent strong shaking can provide significant benefit. Reducing data latencies, accelerating processing times, and tuning seismic station distributions increase time available for warning. We assess the feasibility of EEW for Hawai‘i and examine how additional stations or upgrades to existing stations can improve warning times. We designed an objective method to identify the most efficient sites for improving an existing seismic network’s coverage, taking both seismic station distribution and seismic hazard into account. The choice of locations for new seismic station sites is informed by improvements in warning time, considering the distribution of seismic hazard and exposure. New sites that improve warning time from earthquakes that are most likely to generate significant ground motions are given preference. This technique may be applied to any seismically active region and target infrastructure in which seismic hazard is spatially defined. We demonstrate this method’s use on the Island of Hawai‘i, with focus on warnings to astronomical observatories on Mauna Kea and island population centers Hilo and Kailua-Kona. We identified 13 candidate sites for new sensors, telemetry upgrades, or new station installations that should provide an additional 1–4 s of warning for the most probable damaging earthquakes in southern Ka‘ū and northern offshore regions in which 2–14 s and <4 s of warning are currently estimated, respectively.

Seismological Research Letters↗

USGS2008

Deformation and rupture of the oceanic crust may control growth of Hawaiian volcanoes

Hawaiian volcanoes are formed by the eruption of large quantities of basaltic magma related to hot-spot activity below the Pacific Plate. Despite the apparent simplicity of the parent process - emission of magma onto the oceanic crust - the resulting edifices display some topographic complexity. Certain features, such as rift zones and large flank slides, are common to all Hawaiian volcanoes, indicating similarities in their genesis; however, the underlying mechanism controlling this process remains unknown. Here we use seismological investigations and finite-element mechanical modelling to show that the load exerted by large Hawaiian volcanoes can be sufficient to rupture the oceanic crust. This intense deformation, combined with the accelerated subsidence of the oceanic crust and the weakness of the volcanic edifice/oceanic crust interface, may control the surface morphology of Hawaiian volcanoes, especially the existence of their giant flank instabilities. Further studies are needed to determine whether such processes occur in other active intraplate volcanoes. ??2008 Nature Publishing Group.

Nature↗

USGS2006

Estimating crustal heterogeneity from double-difference tomography

Seismic velocity parameters in limited, but heterogeneous volumes can be inferred using a double-difference tomographic algorithm, but to obtain meaningful results accuracy must be maintained at every step of the computation. MONTEILLER et al. (2005) have devised a double-difference tomographic algorithm that takes full advantage of the accuracy of cross-spectral time-delays of large correlated event sets. This algorithm performs an accurate computation of theoretical travel-time delays in heterogeneous media and applies a suitable inversion scheme based on optimization theory. When applied to Kilauea Volcano, in Hawaii, the double-difference tomography approach shows significant and coherent changes to the velocity model in the well-resolved volumes beneath the Kilauea caldera and the upper east rift. In this paper, we first compare the results obtained using MONTEILLER et al.'s algorithm with those obtained using the classic travel-time tomographic approach. Then, we evaluated the effect of using data series of different accuracies, such as handpicked arrival-time differences ("picking differences"), on the results produced by double-difference tomographic algorithms. We show that picking differences have a non-Gaussian probability density function (pdf). Using a hyperbolic secant pdf instead of a Gaussian pdf allows improvement of the double-difference tomographic result when using picking difference data. We completed our study by investigating the use of spatially discontinuous time-delay data. ?? Birkha??user Verlag, Basel, 2006.

Pure and Applied Geophysics↗

USGS2005

An efficient algorithm for double-difference tomography and location in heterogeneous media, with an application to the Kilauea volcano

Improving our understanding of crustal processes requires a better knowledge of the geometry and the position of geological bodies. In this study we have designed a method based upon double-difference relocation and tomography to image, as accurately as possible, a heterogeneous medium containing seismogenic objects. Our approach consisted not only of incorporating double difference in tomography but also partly in revisiting tomographic schemes for choosing accurate and stable numerical strategies, adapted to the use of cross-spectral time delays. We used a finite difference solution to the eikonal equation for travel time computation and a Tarantola-Valette approach for both the classical and double-difference three-dimensional tomographic inversion to find accurate earthquake locations and seismic velocity estimates. We estimated efficiently the square root of the inverse model's covariance matrix in the case of a Gaussian correlation function. It allows the use of correlation length and a priori model variance criteria to determine the optimal solution. Double-difference relocation of similar earthquakes is performed in the optimal velocity model, making absolute and relative locations less biased by the velocity model. Double-difference tomography is achieved by using high-accuracy time delay measurements. These algorithms have been applied to earthquake data recorded in the vicinity of Kilauea and Mauna Loa volcanoes for imaging the volcanic structures. Stable and detailed velocity models are obtained: the regional tomography unambiguously highlights the structure of the island of Hawaii and the double-difference tomography shows a detailed image of the southern Kilauea caldera-upper east rift zone magmatic complex. Copyright 2005 by the American Geophysical Union.

Hawaii↗

USGS2003

Infrasonic tremor observed at Kilauea Volcano, Hawai'i

[1] Infrasonic array data collected at Kīlauea Volcano, Hawai'i, during November 12–21, 2002 indicate that the active vents and lava tube system near the Pu'u 'Ō'ō vent complex emit almost continuous infrasound in the 0.3–10 Hz frequency band. The spectral content of these infrasonic signals matches well that of synchronous seismic tremor. In sites protected from wind noise, significant signal to noise ratios were recorded as far as ∼13 km from the crater of Pu'u 'Ō'ō. The infrasonic recordings suggest that one or more tremor sources may be close to the surface. In addition, these results demonstrate that adequate site and instrument selections for infrasonic arrays are essential in order to obtain consistent and reliable infrasonic detections.

Hawai'i↗

USGS2003

Location of long-period events below Kilauea Volcano using seismic amplitudes and accurate relative relocation

We present methods for improving the location of long-period (LP) events, deep and shallow, recorded below Kilauea Volcano by the permanent seismic network. LP events might be of particular interest to understanding eruptive processes as their source mechanism is assumed to directly involve fluid transport. However, it is usually difficult or impossible to locate their source using traditional arrival time methods because of emergent wave arrivals. At Kilauea, similar LP waveform signatures suggest the existence of LP multiplets. The waveform similarity suggests spatially close sources, while catalog solutions using arrival time estimates are widely scattered beneath Kilauea's summit caldera. In order to improve estimates of absolute LP location, we use the distribution of seismic amplitudes corrected for station site effects. The decay of the amplitude as a function of hypocentral distance is used for inferring LP location. In a second stage, we use the similarity of the events to calculate their relative positions. The analysis of the entire LP seismicity recorded between January 1997 and December 1999 suggests that a very large part of the LP event population, both deep and shallow, is generated by a small number of compact sources. Deep events are systematically composed of a weak high-frequency onset followed by a low-frequency wave train. Aligning the low-frequency wave trains does not lead to aligning the onsets indicating the two parts of the signal are dissociated. This observation favors an interpretation in terms of triggering and resonance of a magmatic conduit. Instead of defining fault planes, the precise relocation of similar LP events, based on the alignment of the high-energy low-frequency wave trains, defines limited size volumes. Copyright 2003 by the American Geophysical Union.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS2003

New insights into Kilauea's volcano dynamics brought by large-scale relative relocation of microearthquakes

We investigated the microseismicity recorded in an active volcano to infer information concerning the volcano structure and long-term dynamics, by using relative relocations and focal mechanisms of microearthquakes. There were 32,000 earthquakes of the Mauna Loa and Kilauea volcanoes recorded by more than eight stations of the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory seismic network between 1988 and 1999. We studied 17,000 of these events and relocated more than 70%, with an accuracy ranging from 10 to 500 m. About 75% of these relocated events are located in the vicinity of subhorizontal decollement planes, at a depth of 8-11 km. However, the striking features revealed by these relocation results are steep southeast dipping fault planes working as reverse faults, clearly located below the decollement plane and which intersect it. If this decollement plane coincides with the pre-Mauna Loa seafloor, as hypothesized by numerous authors, such reverse faults rupture the pre-Mauna Loa oceanic crust. The weight of the volcano and pressure in the magma storage system are possible causes of these ruptures, fully compatible with the local stress tensor computed by Gillard et al. [1996]. Reverse faults are suspected of producing scarps revealed by kilometer-long horizontal slip-perpendicular lineations along the decollement surface and therefore large-scale roughness, asperities, and normal stress variations. These are capable of generating stick-slip, large-magnitude earthquakes, the spatial microseismic pattern observed in the south flank of Kilauea volcano, and Hilina-type instabilities. Rupture intersecting the decollement surface, causing its large-scale roughness, may be an important parameter controlling the growth of Hawaiian volcanoes.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS2000

The use of earthquake rate changes as a stress meter at Kilauea volcano

Stress changes in the Earth's crust are generally estimated from model calculations that use near-surface deformation as an observational constraint. But the widespread correlation of changes of earthquake activity with stress has led to suggestions that stress changes might be calculated from earthquake occurrence rates obtained from seismicity catalogues. Although this possibility has considerable appeal, because seismicity data are routinely collected and have good spatial and temporal resolution, the method has not yet proven successful, owing to the nonlinearity of earthquake rate changes with respect to both stress and time. Here, however, we present two methods for inverting earthquake rate data to infer stress changes, using a formulation for the stress- and time-dependence of earthquake rates. Application of these methods at Kilauea volcano, in Hawaii, yields good agreement with independent estimates, indicating that earthquake rates can provide a practical remote-sensing stress meter.

Nature↗

USGS1998

Digitally Telemetered Broadband Seismic Network at Kilauea Volcano, Hawaii

Explore the source record for details and available documents.

Open-File Report↗

USGS1996

Type of faulting and orientation of stress and strain as a function of space and time in Kilauea's south flank, Hawaii

Earthquake focal mechanisms of events occurring between 1972 and 1992 in the south flank of Kilauea volcano, Hawaii, are used to infer the state of stress and strain as a function of time and space. We have determined 870 fault plane solutions from P wave first motion polarities for events with magnitudes M L ≥ 2.5 and depth ranging between 6 and 12 km. Faulting is characterized by a mixture of decollement, reverse, and normal faults. Most large earthquakes with magnitude M < 7 slip on reverse faults striking NE at 40° and dipping SE between 60° and 70°. In Hawaii, the earthquakes with M > 7 rupture the decollement plane, since it is the only surface large enough to generate magnitude 7 or larger earthquakes. The percentage of reverse faulting events is high compared to the decollement and normal faulting mechanisms for the period 1972–1983. The percentage of decollement type focal mechanisms becomes dominant after 1983. This pattern of faulting activity suggests that pressure was building up within Kilauea's rift zone prior to the 1983 Puu'Oo eruption. Overall, a single stress orientation with the maximum compressive stress oriented SE perpendicular to the rift and dipping at 45° is compatible with the coeval existence of decollement, reverse, and normal faults. However, in a crustal volume east of longitude 155°10′W, we find a change of the orientation of σ 1 from nearly horizontal to plunging 45° SE occurring in 1979. This stress rotation suggests magma movements within the aseismic part of Kilauea's east rift zone. The strain and stress orientations are coaxial in the south flank except within the volume where the stress rotation is observed. We observe a change in the relationship between stress and strain directions caused either by the shifting of seismic activity from reverse faults to decollements, while stress stays constant, or by a rotation of stress, while strain remains constant. Assuming that the model of a noncohesive Coulomb wedge is appropriate for Kilauea's south flank, we find that high pore pressures are prevalent along the decollement and within the wedge for a coefficient of friction equal to 0.85.

Hawaii↗

USGS1996

A preliminary survey of the broadband seismic wavefield at Puu Oo, the active vent of Kilauea volcano, Hawaii

The seismic wavefield near an active volcanic vent consists of superimposed signals in a wide range of frequency bands from sources inside and outside the volcano. To characterize the broadband wavefield near Puu Oo, we deployed a profile of three three-component broadband sensors in a 200 m long line about 1.5 km WSW of the active vent. During this period, Puu Oo maintained a constant, but very low level of activity. The digital data logger recorded the wavefield continuously in the frequency band between 0.01 and 40 Hz between June 25 and July 9, 1994. At the same time, local wind conditions along with air temperature and pressure were monitored by a portable digital weather station. On the basis of characteristic elements, such as waveform, spatial coherence between stations, particle motion and power spectra, the wavefield can be divided into three bands. The dominant signals in the frequency band between 0.01 and 0.1 Hz are not coherent among the stations. Their ground velocities correlate with the wind speed. The signals in the 0.1 to 0.5 Hz band are coherent across the profile and most probably represent a superposition of volcanic tremor and microseisms from the Pacific Ocean. Much of the energy above 0.5 Hz can be attributed to activity at the vent. Power spectra from recordings of the transverse components show complex peaks between 0.5 and 3 Hz which vary in amplitude due to site effects and distance. On the other hand, power spectra calculated from the radial components show a clearly periodic pattern of peaks at 1 Hz intervals for some time segments. A further remarkable feature of the power spectra is that they are highly stationary.

Hawaii↗