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P. L. Williams

Publications and source records attributed to P. L. Williams.

14 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2010

Evidence for a twelfth large earthquake on the southern hayward fault in the past 1900 years

We present age and stratigraphic evidence for an additional paleoearthquake at the Tyson Lagoon site. The acquisition of 19 additional radiocarbon dates and the inclusion of this additional event has resolved a large age discrepancy in our earlier earthquake chronology. The age of event E10 was previously poorly constrained, thus increasing the uncertainty in the mean recurrence interval (RI), a critical factor in seismic hazard evaluation. Reinspection of many trench logs revealed substantial evidence suggesting that an additional earthquake occurred between E10 and E9 within unit u45. Strata in older u45 are faulted in the main fault zone and overlain by scarp colluviums in two locations.We conclude that an additional surfacerupturing event (E9.5) occurred between E9 and E10. Since 91 A.D. (??40 yr, 1??), 11 paleoearthquakes preceded the M 6:8 earthquake in 1868, yielding a mean RI of 161 ?? 65 yr (1??, standard deviation of recurrence intervals). However, the standard error of the mean (SEM) is well determined at ??10 yr. Since ~1300 A.D., the mean rate has increased slightly, but is indistinguishable from the overall rate within the uncertainties. Recurrence for the 12-event sequence seems fairly regular: the coefficient of variation is 0.40, and it yields a 30-yr earthquake probability of 29%. The apparent regularity in timing implied by this earthquake chronology lends support for the use of time-dependent renewal models rather than assuming a random process to forecast earthquakes, at least for the southern Hayward fault.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2007

A record of large earthquakes on the southern Hayward fault for the past 1800 years

This is the second article presenting evidence of the occurrence and timing of paleoearthquakes on the southern Hayward fault as interpreted from trenches excavated within a sag pond at the Tyson's Lagoon site in Fremont, California. We use the information to estimate the mean value and aperiodicity of the fault's recurrence interval (RI): two fundamental parameters for estimation of regional seismic hazard. An earlier article documented the four most recent earthquakes, including the historic 1868 earthquake. In this article we present evidence for at least seven earlier paleoruptures since about A.D. 170. We document these events with evidence for ground rupture, such as the presence of blocky colluvium at the base of the main trace fault scarp, and by corroborating evidence such as simultaneous liquefaction or an increase in deformation immediately below event horizons. The mean RI is 170 ?? 82 yr (1??, standard deviation of the sample), aperiodicity is 0.48, and individual intervals may be expected to range from 30 to 370 yr (95.4% confidence). The mean RI is consistent with the recurrence model of the Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities (2003) (mean, 161 yr; range, 99 yr [2.5%]; 283 yr [97.5%]). We note that the mean RI for the five most recent events may have been only 138 ?? 58 yr (1??). Hypothesis tests for the shorter RI do not demonstrate that any recent acceleration has occurred compared to the earlier period or the entire 1800-yr record, principally because of inherent uncertainties of the event ages.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS1999

Evidence for surface rupture in 1868 on the Hayward fault in north Oakland and major rupturing in prehistoric earthquakes

WGCEP90 estimated the Hayward fault to have a high probability (0.45 in 30 yr) of producing a future M7 Bay Area earthquake. This was based on a generic recurrence time and an unverified segmentation model, because there were few direct observations for the southern fault and none for the northern Hayward fault. To better constrain recurrence and segmentation of the northern Hayward fault, we trenched in north Oakland. Unexpectedly, we observed evidence of surface rupture probably from the M7 1868 earthquake. This extends the limit of that surface rupture 13 km north of the segmentation boundary used in the WGCEP90 model and forces serious re-evaluation of the current two-segment paradigm. Although we found that major prehistoric ruptures have occurred here, we could not radiocarbon date them. However, the last major prehistoric event appears correlative with a recently recognized event 13 km to the north dated AD 1640–1776.

Geophysical Research Letters↗
USGS1999

Timing of paleoearthquakes on the northern Hayward Fault: Preliminary evidence in El Cerrito, California

The Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities estimated that the northern Hayward fault had the highest probability (0.28) of producing a M7 Bay Area earthquake in 30 years (WGCEP, 1990). This probability was based, in part, on the assumption that the last large earthquake occurred on this segment in 1836. However, a recent study of historical documents concludes that the 1836 earthquake did not occur on the northern Hayward fault, thereby extending the elapsed time to at least 220 yr ago, the beginning of the written record. The average recurrence interval for a M7 on the northern Hayward is unknown. WGCEP (1990) assumed an interval of 167 years. The 1996 Working Group on Northern California Earthquake Potential estimated ~210 yr, based on extrapolations from southern Hayward paleoseismological studies and a revised estimate of 1868 slip on the southern Hayward fault. To help constrain the timing of paleoearthquakes on the northern Hayward fault for the 1999 Bay Area probability update, we excavated two trenches that cross the fault and a sag pond on the Mira Vista golf course. As the site is on the second fairway, we were limited to less than ten days to document these trenches. Analysis was aided by rapid C-14 dating of more than 90 samples which gave near real-time results with the trenches still open. A combination of upward fault terminations, disrupted strata, and discordant angular relations indicates at least four, and possibly seven or more, surface faulting earthquakes occurred during a 1630-2130 yr interval. Hence, average recurrence time could be <270 yr, but is no more than 710 yr. The most recent earthquake (MRE) occurred after AD 1640. Preliminary analysis of calibrated dates supports the assumption that no large historical (post-1776) earthquakes have ruptured the surface here, but the youngest dates need more corroboration. Analyses of pollen for presence of non-native species help to constrain the time of the MRE. The earthquake recurrence estimates described in this report are preliminary and should not be used as a basis for hazard estimates. Additional trenching is planned for this location to answer questions raised during the initial phase of trenching.

California↗
USGS1985

Geology of the Precambrian rocks of the Jabal Habashi Quadrangle, sheet 26F, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

The Jabal Habashi quadrangle contains formations of Lower Paleozoic and Cenozoic age, unconformably overlying part of the Precambrian Arabian Shield. The Precambrian formations include metamorphosed and strongly deformed volcanic and volcaniclastic rocks and plutons of calc-alkalic, mafic to intermediate composition, dated at about 645 Ma. These are unconformably overlain by the Maraghan formation of the Murdama group, composed of sandstone and siltstone deposited in a vast sedimentary basin present in the region between about 640 to 620 Ma. On the northwestern margin of this large basin, a smaller, fault-controlled basin was filled by the Hibshi formation, a sequence of conglomerate, sandstones, tuffs and minor lava flows, which dates from 632 Ma. Other volcanic rocks from this period probably accumulated around caldera-like volcanoes. The deposition of the Maraghan and Hibshi formations was interrupted by moderate deformation and metamorphism. About 617 Ma ago, the region was intruded by many granodiorite, granite and subordinate gabbro, diorite and peralkaline granite plutons. Gold-bearing quartz veins formed as a result of this intrusive event. A gap in the geologic record of nearly 40 Ma followed, ended by the emplacement of more evolved syenogranite and alkali-feldspar granite plutons. Hydrothermal alteration of one of these granites led to the formation of tin greisen; other granites contain anomalous amounts of rare-earth elements. The stable rock mass created by these geologic processes was extensively eroded at the end of the Precambrian, and was subsequently covered by flat-lying Lower Paleozoic clastic rocks, the Saq Sandstone of Cambrian (?) to early Ordovician age, and the Tabuk Formation, largely siltstone and claystone, of early Ordovician to early Silurian age. Another major gap in the record, extending from the early Paleozoic to late Cenozoic, ended by the extrusion of basaltic lava flows and cinder cones in the northern part of the quadrangle, about 1.8 Ma ago. The volcanic activity, preceded by tilting of the region and the stripping back of the Paleozoic rocks to expose the Precambrian again, was linked to rifting in the Arabian Shield and the opening of the Red Sea. The final event in the quadrangle was the onset of the present-day type of climate and erosion pattern, leading to the development of drainage channels partly filled by sand and small sabkhah deposits, and surfaces covered by recently cemented gravels.

Open-File Report↗
USGS1985

Reconnaissance geology of the Al Ba'ayith quadrangle, sheet 26/41 D, Kingdom of Saudi Arabia

The Al Ba'ayith quadrangle, located in the northeastern part of the Arabian Shield, is underlain by upper Proterozoic intrusive rocks and volcanogenic layered sequences bounded by unconformities. The oldest rocks are silicic volcanic rocks of the Banana formation that is tentatively assigned to the Hulayfah group. Successively younger layered rocks are the Maraghan formation of the Murdama group, consisting of lithic graywacke, siltstone, and shale; the Hibshi formation, coarse-grained lithic sandstone and conglomerate; the Sufran formation, dacitic and andesitic lava flows and ash-flow tuffs; the Jurdhawiyah formation, andesitic flows and agglomerate, and conglomeratic sandstone; and the Hadn formation, rhyolite flows and ash-flow tuffs, conglomerate, sandstone, and andesite flows. Plutonic rocks are of four main age groups: an early group consisting of orthogneiss of granodioritic and granitic composition, and metagabbro; a pre-Hibshi group consisting of the Murran complex (diorite and quartz diorite) and quartz monzodiorite; a post-Hibshi group, consisting of altered mafic plutonic rocks, granodiorite of the Idah suite, and monzogranite of the Shuwayman suite; and a latest Precambrian group of highly evolved granitic rocks, consisting of alkali-feldspar granite, granophyre, and syenogranite. Structures in the orthogneiss and metagabbro trend northeast to northwest, and in the Murran complex, generally east. The Maraghan formation was folded and thrust over the Hibshi formation along the northeast-trending Raha fault. The Jurdhawiyah formation is at the northern margin of the east-trending Shuqrah basin. Northwest-trending left-lateral faults probably belong to the Najd fault system. Quaternary surficial deposits mantle large areas of the quadrangle, and consist of sheet gravel, alluvial fan gravel, eolian and alluvial sand and silt, and sabkhah deposits. Gold-bearing quartz veins occur associated with small plutons of the Idah suite in the southeastern part of the quadrangle, and have been mined in the past. Ironstones, near Murran in the center of the quadrangle contain trace amounts of silver and gold.

Open-File Report↗