Geology topics

Nathaniel P. Hitt

Publications and source records attributed to Nathaniel P. Hitt.

45 records · Page 3Linked to original sources

USGS2015

Seasonal weather patterns drive population vital rates and persistence in a stream fish

Climate change affects seasonal weather patterns, but little is known about the relative importance of seasonal weather patterns on animal population vital rates. Even when such information exists, data are typically only available from intensive fieldwork (e.g., mark–recapture studies) at a limited spatial extent. Here, we investigated effects of seasonal air temperature and precipitation (fall, winter, and spring) on survival and recruitment of brook trout ( Salvelinus fontinalis ) at a broad spatial scale using a novel stage‐structured population model. The data were a 15‐year record of brook trout abundance from 72 sites distributed across a 170‐km‐long mountain range in Shenandoah National Park, Virginia, USA. Population vital rates responded differently to weather and site‐specific conditions. Specifically, young‐of‐year survival was most strongly affected by spring temperature, adult survival by elevation and per‐capita recruitment by winter precipitation. Low fall precipitation and high winter precipitation, the latter of which is predicted to increase under climate change for the study region, had the strongest negative effects on trout populations. Simulations show that trout abundance could be greatly reduced under constant high winter precipitation, consistent with the expected effects of gravel‐scouring flows on eggs and newly hatched individuals. However, high‐elevation sites would be less vulnerable to local extinction because they supported higher adult survival. Furthermore, the majority of brook trout populations are projected to persist if high winter precipitation occurs only intermittently (≤3 of 5 years) due to density‐dependent recruitment. Variable drivers of vital rates should be commonly found in animal populations characterized by ontogenetic changes in habitat, and such stage‐structured effects may increase population persistence to changing climate by not affecting all life stages simultaneously. Yet, our results also demonstrate that weather patterns during seemingly less consequential seasons (e.g., winter precipitation) can have major impacts on animal population dynamics.

Virginia↗

USGS2015

Accounting for groundwater in stream fish thermal habitat responses to climate change

Forecasting climate change effects on aquatic fauna and their habitat requires an understanding of how water temperature responds to changing air temperature (i.e., thermal sensitivity). Previous efforts to forecast climate effects on brook trout habitat have generally assumed uniform air-water temperature relationships over large areas that cannot account for groundwater inputs and other processes that operate at finer spatial scales. We developed regression models that accounted for groundwater influences on thermal sensitivity from measured air-water temperature relationships within forested watersheds in eastern North America (Shenandoah National Park, USA, 78 sites in 9 watersheds). We used these reach-scale models to forecast climate change effects on stream temperature and brook trout thermal habitat, and compared our results to previous forecasts based upon large-scale models. Observed stream temperatures were generally less sensitive to air temperature than previously assumed, and we attribute this to the moderating effect of shallow groundwater inputs. Predicted groundwater temperatures from air-water regression models corresponded well to observed groundwater temperatures elsewhere in the study area. Predictions of brook trout future habitat loss derived from our fine-grained models were far less pessimistic than those from prior models developed at coarser spatial resolutions. However, our models also revealed spatial variation in thermal sensitivity within and among catchments resulting in a patchy distribution of thermally suitable habitat. Habitat fragmentation due to thermal barriers therefore may have an increasingly important role for trout population viability in headwater streams. Our results demonstrate that simple adjustments to air-water temperature regression models can provide a powerful and cost-effective approach for predicting future stream temperatures while accounting for effects of groundwater.

Virginia↗

USGS2014

Threshold-dependent sample sizes for selenium assessment with stream fish tissue

Natural resource managers are developing assessments of selenium (Se) contamination in freshwater ecosystems based on fish tissue concentrations. We evaluated the effects of sample size (i.e., number of fish per site) on the probability of correctly detecting mean whole-body Se values above a range of potential management thresholds. We modeled Se concentrations as gamma distributions with shape and scale parameters fitting an empirical mean-to-variance relationship in data from southwestern West Virginia, USA (63 collections, 382 individuals). We used parametric bootstrapping techniques to calculate statistical power as the probability of detecting true mean concentrations up to 3 mg Se/kg above management thresholds ranging from 4 to 8 mg Se/kg. Sample sizes required to achieve 80% power varied as a function of management thresholds and Type I error tolerance (α). Higher thresholds required more samples than lower thresholds because populations were more heterogeneous at higher mean Se levels. For instance, to assess a management threshold of 4 mg Se/kg, a sample of eight fish could detect an increase of approximately 1 mg Se/kg with 80% power (given α = 0.05), but this sample size would be unable to detect such an increase from a management threshold of 8 mg Se/kg with more than a coin-flip probability. Increasing α decreased sample size requirements to detect above-threshold mean Se concentrations with 80% power. For instance, at an α-level of 0.05, an 8-fish sample could detect an increase of approximately 2 units above a threshold of 8 mg Se/kg with 80% power, but when α was relaxed to 0.2, this sample size was more sensitive to increasing mean Se concentrations, allowing detection of an increase of approximately 1.2 units with equivalent power. Combining individuals into 2- and 4-fish composite samples for laboratory analysis did not decrease power because the reduced number of laboratory samples was compensated for by increased precision of composites for estimating mean conditions. However, low sample sizes (<5 fish) did not achieve 80% power to detect near-threshold values (i.e., <1 mg Se/kg) under any scenario we evaluated. This analysis can assist the sampling design and interpretation of Se assessments from fish tissue by accounting for natural variation in stream fish populations.

Integrated Environmental Assessment and Management↗

USGS2014

Temporal changes in taxonomic and functional diversity of fish assemblages downstream from mountaintop mining

Mountaintop mining (MTM) affects chemical, physical, and hydrological properties of receiving streams, but the long-term consequences for fish-assemblage structure and function are poorly understood. We sampled stream fish assemblages using electrofishing techniques in MTM exposure sites and reference sites within the Guyandotte River basin, USA, during 2010–2011. We calculated indices of taxonomic diversity (species richness, abundance, Shannon diversity) and functional diversity (functional richness, functional evenness, functional divergence) to compare exposure and reference assemblages between seasons (spring and autumn) and across years (1999–2011). We based temporal comparisons on 2 sites that were sampled during 1999–2001 by Stauffer and Ferreri (2002). Exposure assemblages had lower taxonomic and functional diversity than reference assemblages or simulated assemblages that accounted for random variation. Differences in taxonomic composition between reference and exposure assemblages were associated with conductivity and aqueous Se concentrations. Exposure assemblages had fewer species, lower abundances, and less biomass than reference assemblages across years and seasons. Green Sunfish ( Lepomis cyanellus ) and Creek Chub ( Semotilus atromaculatus ) became numerically dominant in exposure assemblages over time because of their persistence and losses of other taxa. In contrast, species richness increased over time in reference assemblages, a result that may indicate recovery from drought. Mean individual biomass increased as fish density decreased and most obligate invertivores were apparently extirpated at MTM exposure sites. Effects of MTM were not related to physical-habitat conditions but were associated with water-quality variables, which may limit quality and availability of benthic macroinvertebrate prey. Simulations revealed effects of MTM that could not be attributed to random variation in fish assemblage structure.

West Virginia↗

USGS2013

Synthesis and interpretation of surface-water quality and aquatic biota data collected in Shenandoah National Park, Virginia, 1979-2009

Shenandoah National Park in northern and central Virginia protects 777 square kilometers of mountain terrain in the Blue Ridge physiographic province and more than 90 streams containing diverse aquatic biota. Park managers and visitors are interested in the water quality of park streams and its ability to support healthy coldwater communities and species, such as the native brook trout ( Salvelinus fontinalis ), that are at risk in the eastern United States. Despite protection from local stressors, however, the water quality of streams in the park is at risk from many regional stressors, including atmospheric pollution, decline in the health of the surrounding forests because of invasive forest pests, and global climate change. In 2010, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the National Park Service, undertook a study to compile, analyze, and synthesize available data on water quality, aquatic macroinvertebrates, and fish within Shenandoah National Park. Specifically, the effort focused on creating a comprehensive water-resources database for the park that can be used to evaluate temporal trends and spatial patterns in the available data, and characterizing those data to better understand interrelations among water quality, aquatic macroinvertebrates, fish, and the landscape.

Virginia↗

USGS2012

Dam removal increases American eel abundance in distant headwater streams

American eel Anguilla rostrata abundances have undergone significant declines over the last 50 years, and migration barriers have been recognized as a contributing cause. We evaluated eel abundances in headwater streams of Shenandoah National Park, Virginia, to compare sites before and after the removal of a large downstream dam in 2004 (Embrey Dam, Rappahannock River). Eel abundances in headwater streams increased significantly after the removal of Embrey Dam. Observed eel abundances after dam removal exceeded predictions derived from autoregressive models parameterized with data prior to dam removal. Mann–Kendall analyses also revealed consistent increases in eel abundances from 2004 to 2010 but inconsistent temporal trends before dam removal. Increasing eel numbers could not be attributed to changes in local physical habitat (i.e., mean stream depth or substrate size) or regional population dynamics (i.e., abundances in Maryland streams or Virginia estuaries). Dam removal was associated with decreasing minimum eel lengths in headwater streams, suggesting that the dam previously impeded migration of many small-bodied individuals (<300 mm TL). We hypothesize that restoring connectivity to headwater streams could increase eel population growth rates by increasing female eel numbers and fecundity. This study demonstrated that dams may influence eel abundances in headwater streams up to 150 river kilometers distant, and that dam removal may provide benefits for eel management and conservation at the landscape scale.

Virginia↗

USGS2012

Experimental and environmental factors affect spurious detection of ecological thresholds

Threshold detection methods are increasingly popular for assessing nonlinear responses to environmental change, but their statistical performance remains poorly understood. We simulated linear change in stream benthic macroinvertebrate communities and evaluated the performance of commonly used threshold detection methods based on model fitting (piecewise quantile regression [PQR]), data partitioning (nonparametric change point analysis [NCPA]), and a hybrid approach (significant zero crossings [SiZer]). We demonstrated that false detection of ecological thresholds (type I errors) and inferences on threshold locations are influenced by sample size, rate of linear change, and frequency of observations across the environmental gradient (i.e., sample-environment distribution, SED). However, the relative importance of these factors varied among statistical methods and between inference types. False detection rates were influenced primarily by user-selected parameters for PQR (τ) and SiZer (bandwidth) and secondarily by sample size (for PQR) and SED (for SiZer). In contrast, the location of reported thresholds was influenced primarily by SED. Bootstrapped confidence intervals for NCPA threshold locations revealed strong correspondence to SED. We conclude that the choice of statistical methods for threshold detection should be matched to experimental and environmental constraints to minimize false detection rates and avoid spurious inferences regarding threshold location.

Ecology↗

USGS2010

Longitudinal structure in temperate stream fish communities: evaluating conceptual models with temporal data

Five conceptual models of longitudinal fish community organization in streams were examined: (1) niche diversity model (NDM), (2) stream continuum model (SCM), (3) immigrant accessibility model (IAM), (4) environmental stability model (ESM), and (5) adventitious stream model (ASM). We used differences among models in their predictions about temporal species turnover, along with five spatiotemporal fish community data sets, to evaluate model applicability. Models were similar in predicting a positive species richness–stream size relationship and longitudinal species nestedness, but differed in predicting either similar temporal species turnover throughout the stream continuum (NDM, SCM), higher turnover upstream (IAM, ESM), or higher turnover downstream (ASM). We calculated measures of spatial and temporal variation from spatiotemporal fish data in five wadeable streams in central and eastern North America spanning 34–68 years (French Creek [New York], Piasa Creek [Illinois], Spruce Run [Virginia], Little Stony Creek [Virginia], and Sinking Creek [Virginia]). All streams exhibited substantial species turnover (i.e., at least 27% turnover in stream-scale species pools), in contrast to the predictions of the SCM. Furthermore, community change was greater in downstream than upstream reaches in four of five streams. This result is most consistent with the ASM and suggests that downstream communities are strongly influenced by migrants to and from species pools outside the focal stream. In Sinking Creek, which is isolated from external species pools, temporal species turnover (via increased richness) was higher upstream than downstream, which is a pattern most consistent with the IAM or ESM. These results corroborate the hypothesis that temperate stream habitats and fish communities are temporally dynamic and that fish migration and environmental disturbances play fundamental roles in stream fish community organization.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2003

Spread of hybridization between native westslope cutthroat trout, Oncorhynchus clarki lewisi, and nonnative rainbow trout, Oncorhynchus mykiss

We examined spatial and temporal patterns of hybridization between native westslope cutthroat trout, Oncorhynchus clarki lewisi , and nonnative rainbow trout, O. mykiss , in streams of the Flathead River system in Montana, U.S.A. We detected hybridization in 24 of 42 sites sampled from 1998 to 2001. We found new Oncorhynchus mykiss introgression in seven of 11 sample populations that were determined to be nonhybridized in 1984. Patterns of spatial autocorrelation and linkage disequilibrium indicated that hybridization is spreading among sites and is advancing primarily via post-F 1 hybrids. Although hybridized populations were distributed widely throughout the study area, the genetic contribution from O. mykiss decreased with increasing upstream distance from the Flathead River mainstem, suggesting that O. mykiss introgression is spreading in an upstream direction. The spread of hybridization may be constrained more by demographic than by environmental factors, given that ( i ) hybridized populations generally encompassed the range of environmental variability in nonhybridized populations, and ( ii ) hybridization status was more strongly associated with neighborhood statistics than measured environmental gradients.

Montana↗