Geology topics

Nathan R. De Jager

Publications and source records attributed to Nathan R. De Jager.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2026

Perspectives and insights gained from applying landscape ecological approaches to the Upper Mississippi riverscape

Advances in remote sensing, spatial data collection, hydraulic and geospatial models, and the maturation of landscape ecology during the early 2000s spurred the concept of rivers as landscapes or ‘riverscapes’. Since that time, the Upper Mississippi River Restoration (UMRR) Program - one of the world’s longest running large-river ecosystem restoration and monitoring programs - has applied landscape ecological principles to the Upper Mississippi River System (UMRS). I examine spatial patterns of aquatic nutrient concentrations, submersed aquatic vegetation, and fish and mussel communities, finding that within-river patterns are often patchy in nature, likely resulting from how nutrient processes and community traits interact with spatial variability in hydraulic exchange patterns. Local-scale patchy spatial patterns in the UMRS are embedded in system-scale longitudinal gradients and a hierarchical view of the river has provided a foundation for strategic river restoration planning. Key Words: Aquatic Habitat, hydraulic connectivity, patch, restoration, riverscape

BioScience↗

USGS2026

Patterns of floodplain forest mortality and recruitment along the Upper Mississippi and Illinois Rivers: Associations with forest fragmentation and flood inundation

Context Different rates of floodplain forest recruitment and mortality can reveal important changes in ecosystem processes that drive forest dynamics, resulting in net changes in forest cover, thereby influencing a wide range of river habitat and morphological characteristics. Objectives We evaluated characteristics of forest change areas in the Upper Mississippi River System. Methods An overlay technique was used to map patches of forest loss, gain, and persistence between 2010 and 2020 in relation to a series of explanatory variables. Results We quantified a net decline in forest cover ranging from 3.2 to 16.8% in the uppermost five study reaches, and a net increase in forest cover ranging from 0.5 to 4.6% in the southernmost three reaches. Patches of forest loss and persistence were similarly tall (> 15 m), dense (> 90% cover), silver maple ( Acer saccharinum ) dominated forests, whereas forest gain patches were short (< 15 m), less dense (< 66% cover) and more likely to be dominated by willow ( Salix) species. Both forest loss and gain patches were smaller than forest persistence patches and were typically found in areas with low neighborhood forest density (< 50% forested 10 ha neighborhood). Areas that experienced more than three flood events per growing season, more than 100 consecutive days of inundation during a single flood event, and more than 60 mean total days of inundation per growing season from 2011 to 2020 showed a net loss of forest cover in all study reaches. In contrast, net increases in forest cover were restricted to areas that experienced less than a single flood event per growing season, less than 40 consecutive days of inundation during a single flood event and less than 30 mean total days of inundation per growing season from 2011 to 2020. Conclusions Forest mortality along these river reaches is associated with forest fragmentation and an increasingly wetter hydrological regime.

Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Wisconsin↗

USGS2026

Proceedings of the Floodplain Vegetation Monitoring Workshop for the Long Term Resource Monitoring Element of the Upper Mississippi River Restoration Program, January 7–8, 2025, Moline, Illinois

Preface In anticipation for increased funding made possible by the Water Resources Development Act of 2020, the Upper Mississippi River Restoration (UMRR) Program identified a need to conduct river-wide assessments of floodplain vegetation. In January 2025, we assembled a group of subject matter experts to perform the following tasks: Review Upper Mississippi River Restoration’s current floodplain vegetation research portfolio, Identify important features and goals for long-term floodplain vegetation monitoring, Evaluate the suitability of existing datasets for system-wide vegetation assessments, and Discuss emerging opportunities to learn about floodplain vegetation dynamics from local-scale restoration and management projects. This document is a summarization of what occurred at the meeting and provides suggested next steps toward developing the capacity to conduct routine long-term monitoring and assessment of floodplain vegetation as part of the Upper Mississippi River Restoration Program.

Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Wisconsin↗

USGS2026

More water, more of the time: Spatial changes in flooding over 83 years in the upper Mississippi River floodplain and relationships with streamgage-derived proxies

The hydrologic regime of the upper Mississippi River (UMR) has become wetter, with greater discharges, longer-lasting high-flow conditions, and seasonal shifts in these patterns over the past several decades. How these changes are expressed spatially as floodplain inundation area, frequency, depth, duration, and timing is not well understood. It is also unclear to what degree spatial patterns of submergence are represented by examining discharge data alone. We assessed changes in floodplain inundation characteristics from 1940 to 2022 in navigation pools 3–10 of the UMR using a geospatial model to simulate daily inundation depths. Inundation characteristics shifted significantly across pools, but the direction and magnitude of change varied by pool and metric. Characteristics summarized at the pool scale correlated with streamgage-derived proxies but the strength of the relationship varied. Within pools, variability in inundation trends highlighted the importance of spatially explicit modeling. Our study demonstrates that changes in discharge over 83 years have manifested across the UMR floodplain in ways that may have consequences for ecological patterns and processes. By mapping hydrologically sensitive areas, we can anticipate which areas may be susceptible to additional shifts in river discharge in a climatically uncertain future.

Iowa, Minnesota, Wiscosnin↗

USGS2025

Effects of ungulate browsing on forest assisted migration strategies to conserve ecosystem function

Forest managers recognize that proactive management strategies, such as forest assisted migration (FAM) of tree species, intended to accelerate the pace of forest adaptation, may be necessary to maintain resilient forests and combat the stressors of climate change. However, the impact of interactions between climate change and ungulate browsers of trees, both of which have profound effects on the landscape, on the success of FAM efforts is unknown. We used a forest landscape model (LANDIS-II) to simulate assisted migration and browsing by ungulate (white-tailed deer [ Odocoileus virginianus ]) populations on a northern Wisconsin (USA) landscape under alternate climate futures. After accounting for effects of FAM strategy and climate change scenario, simulated ungulate browsing reduced species richness and the proportion of the landscape with tree species preferred by browsers and resulted in more of the landscape developing into novel forest communities that supported fewer ecosystem goods and services. Our results suggest that managers may need to select FAM species less preferred by ungulates or use seedling protection measures to mitigate the negative effects of chronically high ungulate populations in efforts to transition future forests to sustain ecosystem goods and services.

Wisconsin↗

USGS2025

Quantifying floodplain forest community change following large-scale flood events in the Upper Mississippi River System

Effects of large-scale flooding on forest composition and structure are a function of flood duration, depth, timing, and frequency. Throughout the Upper Mississippi River System (UMRS), floods in 1993 and 2019 were record-setting events followed by high rates of tree mortality. These events generated interest in species adaptations to flood event characteristics and how forest communities have changed in response to large-scale floods. We investigated associated tree mortality, how the floods differed spatially, and how floodplain forest communities have changed since 1993. Eight UMRS reaches were surveyed in a 1995 study, documenting vegetation species composition, size, and abundance. In 2021, a selection of plots (63%) were revisited and surveyed to quantify 2019 flood effects. For each site, we extracted daily inundation data for flood years and preceding decades from a surface water inundation model. We found post-flood mortality varied spatially and generally reflected inundation duration patterns. Lower latitude reaches experienced longer inundation durations and greater tree mortality in 1993 than in 2019, while higher latitude reaches experienced similar inundation duration and depth and similar mortality between events. Decadal inundation attributes also differed. During 2009–2018, inundation duration was greater and events occurred later than during 1983–1992 in all reaches. Most forest trajectories were Acer saccharinum -dominated and changed relatively little in species composition and structure. The greatest change in composition occurred at plots with high mortality from the 1993 flood, particularly in more flood-prone locations or where there were many small-diameter individuals. In plots dominated by either Quercus spp. or Populus deltoides , species importance shifted toward more shade and flood-tolerant species after 1995 surveys. Self-replacement of these species may be limited by a change in regeneration conditions resulting from an ongoing inundation regime shift in the case of Quercus spp., or succession to more shade-tolerant species in the case of Populus communities. Overall, effects on floodplain forests from the two flood events were heterogeneous. In some cases, forest change was likely just as influenced by shifts in flood regime as it was from singular flood events.

Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Wisconsin↗

USGS2025

Future forest conditions under alternative management and hydrological scenarios in the Upper Mississippi River floodplain

Context Floodplain forests are being transformed by multiple pressures, prompting widespread management and restoration efforts. It is uncertain how disturbances, including hydrologic change, and management actions will interact to influence the ecology of these threatened forests. Objectives This study examined the effects of alternative management and hydrologic regimes on forest succession at an Upper Mississippi River floodplain site with a restoration project in planning. Methods We used the spatially explicit forest landscape model, LANDIS-II, to simulate forest succession for 100 years under four hydrogeomorphic management scenarios, three forest management scenarios, and two scenarios of future hydrologic conditions. We evaluated changes in forest biomass and composition over time and assessed the relative importance of management actions and hydrologic change on succession. Results Forest aboveground biomass decreased in all management-hydrology scenarios, especially in the wetter hydrological scenario. Intensified hydrogeomorphic and forest management scenarios reduced the magnitude and extent of biomass declines; however, they were unable to prevent overall declines in biomass or cause large shifts in tree species composition. Silver maple ( Acer saccharinum ) was projected to decrease in biomass, while increases in biomass were projected for several late-successional species including swamp white oak ( Quercus bicolor ). Among the factors influencing variation in biomass, forest management had the largest influence in the first 50 years of our simulations, but hydrological regime became the most important factor by the end of the century. Conclusions Our simulations indicate that management actions could play an important role in the conservation of floodplain forests, but their effectiveness will likely be limited if recent upward trends in flooding conditions in this system continue in the future. Thus, our results highlight both the potential benefits and limitations of management actions in the face of hydrologic change.

Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin↗

USGS2025

Characterizing the niche of Phalaris arundinacea (reed canarygrass) in floodplain forests of the Upper Mississippi River

Information on the favorable conditions for invasive species as well as potential constraints to their distribution can be valuable for management efforts. We used a niche modeling approach to analyze the patterns of species distributions along gradients of hypothesized influential environmental variables. Many ecological datasets may have incomplete coverage across the environmental gradients, infrequent sampling under some conditions, insufficient time for an invasive species to occupy all sites, and complex interactions among environmental variables (measured or unmeasured) that may result in species response curves that are difficult to interpret and may be ecologically misleading. To ensure the model and species response curves aligned with ecological niche theory, shape constraints were imposed to guarantee relationships follow a unimodal distribution to reflect the fundamental niche (where a species could occur). We compared a shape-constrained model to an unconstrained model and interpreted the species response curves from the constrained model to better characterize the ecological niche of reed canarygrass in floodplain forests of the Upper Mississippi River, USA. We found the probability of reed canarygrass occurrence decreases with increasing tree canopy cover, tree species richness, distance from forest edge, distance from invaded wet meadows, and island isolation. Probability of reed canarygrass presence exhibited bell-shaped curves in response to hydrology (inundation depth, frequency, and duration) and forest stress metrics indicating an optimum with less favorable conditions on either end of the ecological gradients. This information could be used to prioritize restoration efforts and enhance landcover change research in forested floodplains.

upper Mississippi River↗

USGS2025

Expansion of aquatic and marsh area into once forest and agricultural area reflects changing hydrological conditions along the Upper Mississippi and Illinois rivers (1989-2020)

We examined 30-year trends in the abundance and distribution of aquatic and floodplain vegetation, as well as human land uses in five study reaches of the Upper Mississippi River and one reach of the Illinois River using aerial photography collected in years 1989, 2000, 2010, and 2020. Permanently inundated area increased in all study reaches over the 30-year period. Increases ranged from 0.8% of study reach area in Pool 8 (73 ha) to as much as 6.5% of study reach area in Pool 13 (1,562 ha). Agricultural land use declined in the three study reaches where it was common (>35% of reach area). Agricultural declines ranged from 5.8% of reach area in Pool 26 (2,096 ha) to as much as 15.4% of reach area in the Open River reach (7,121 ha) and corresponded with a similar magnitude increase in permanently inundated area and semi-permanently inundated marsh classes. Total forest area declined in the four northern study reaches of the Upper Mississippi River. Forest loss estimates were on the order of 3.7% of study reach area in Pool 13 (905 ha), 2.1% of Pool 8 (364 ha), and 2.3% of Pool 4 (563 ha). Such losses represent 16.2%, 13.2%, and 10.9% of the total forest area in 1989 in Pools 13, 8 and 4, respectively. Permanently inundated area, wet meadow, shallow marsh vegetation, and mud were the main cover types that replaced forest cover in these reaches. In contrast to the decline in forest cover in the northern reaches, forest cover remained unchanged in the La Grange reach of the Illinois River and increased by 3.5% of study reach area (1,607 ha) in the southern Open River reach of the Mississippi River, mainly in former marsh vegetation and agricultural areas that were acquired by Federal and State agencies. The predominant changes observed across the study system (replacement of agriculture and forest area by permanently inundated area and semi-permanently inundated marsh classes) indicates that hydrological changes have been the main driver of change since 1989 throughout most of the Upper Mississippi and Illinois Rivers. Our study provides an example of changes in a regulated river system driven by regional-scale hydrological changes and local scale restoration actions, changes that could be compared against changes occurring in other large, regulated rivers across the globe.

Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Wisonsin↗

USGS2025

Identifying strategies to manage boreal forests: Simulating moose and timber management scenarios at a landscape scale in the face of changing environmental conditions

There are ongoing debates among different stakeholders about which forest and ungulate management strategies will sustain high levels of timber and animal harvest and maintain important ecosystem functions under climate change. Ungulate-forest interactions are complex, including periods where forest regeneration is sensitive to browsing pressure, making it difficult to predict the consequences of a given strategy over time. To aid decision-making, we simulated the impacts of moose browsing on forest succession under 18 different combinations of moose ( Alces alces ) harvest rate levels and forest management scenarios in a boreal forest landscape in southern Sweden given projected changes in forest growth due to climate change. We found that the current management practices are important for sustaining a moose-forest system. Increasing moose harvest rates led to slightly smaller moose populations, larger estimates of landscape carrying capacity, and less biomass removal of Scots pine ( Pinus sylvestris ), a commercially valuable species. However, minor changes in the moose harvest were hardly affecting timber production. Increasing the timber harvest rotation time led to the highest estimates of Scots pine biomass, while thinning younger cohorts lead to the highest estimates of Norway spruce ( Picea abies ) biomass. These changes came without much effect to moose population dynamics. However, the increased broadleaf production scenario had a very large positive effect on total aboveground live biomass of deciduous species and on landscape carrying capacity and moose density. This scenario subsequently resulted in the greatest estimates of biomass removal of Scots pine, highlighting the tradeoffs associated with increased moose production.

European Journal of Forest Research↗

USGS2024

Spatial differences in predicted Phalaris arundinacea (reed canarygrass) occurrence in floodplain forest understories

Reed canarygrass ( Phalaris arundinacea L.) is one of the most common invaders of floodplains and wetlands in North America. In the Upper Mississippi River floodplain, invasion by reed canarygrass in forest understories can inhibit forest regeneration when gaps form in the overstory. Understanding the distribution of reed canarygrass in forest understories is essential for effective management and control. We used an ensemble of species distribution models including Bayesian additive regression trees, boosted trees, and random forest algorithms to predict habitat suitability for reed canarygrass in forest understories across the Upper Mississippi River floodplain (~41,000 ha). Data from forest inventory study plots with reed canarygrass presence and absence were combined with 10 hypothesized environmental predictors of reed canarygrass invasion. We applied three approaches to better understand and incorporate the influence of spatial autocorrelation among our predictor variables, including random cross-validation, spatial cross-validation, and spatial cross-validation with Euclidean distance fields. Flood frequency, distance to contiguous floodplain, distance to forest edge, and distance to invaded wet meadow were among the most important environmental predictors across the three algorithms. Generally, the mean probability of reed canarygrass presence decreased with increasing flood depth, distance to contiguous floodplain, distance to invaded wet meadow, forest cover, and forest height, while relationships with other predictors were more variable. The ensemble of the three models (i.e., the average prediction) was used to map and summarize potential reed canary grass habitat suitability across the landscape. The maps generated quantified the habitat suitability for reed canarygrass and areas of agreement among the models in forest understories across the floodplain. This information can be used to better understand the extent of invasion, prioritize restoration efforts, and develop further research.

Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Wisc↗

USGS2024

Identifying conditions where reed canarygrass (Phalaris arundinacea) functions as a driver of forest loss in the Upper Mississippi River floodplain under different hydrological scenarios

Most of the world’s river-floodplain ecosystems are simultaneously undergoing modifications to their hydrological regimes and experiencing species invasions, making it unclear whether invasive species are the main drivers of ecosystem change or simply responding to changes in the hydrological regime. We simulated patterns of forest recruitment and succession in a 2500-ha portion of the Upper Mississippi River floodplain with and without removal of invasive Phalaris arundinacea and under two different future 100-year hydrological scenarios: a future maintaining the average flooding conditions of the past 40 years (random) and a future that projects an observed upward 40-year trend in flooding conditions forward (trending). By comparing scenarios that included Phalaris removal and ones that did not, we were able to identify the conditions where Phalaris was the main driver of forest loss vs. the conditions where hydrology was the main driver of forest loss. Areas where Phalaris was the main driver of forest loss had mean annual flood inundation durations that were similar to areas that did not lose forest cover (60–90 growing season days), while areas where flooding was the main driver of forest loss had longer mean inundation durations (102–124 growing season days). In comparison to the random hydrology scenario, the trending scenario produced a decrease in the area over which Phalaris was identified as the main driver of forest loss and an increase in the area over which flood inundation was identified as the main driver of forest loss. Thus, if the observed trends in flooding continue, our model projects an increase in the area over which eradicating Phalaris is unlikely to result in the maintenance of forest cover. We used the Resist-Accept-Direct (RAD) framework to discuss potential management options to resist changes and maintain forest cover where Phalaris is likely to be the main driver of forest loss and to accept or direct changes in areas where forest loss is likely driven by hydrological change.

Iowa, Minnesota, Wisconsin↗

USGS2023

Low-complexity floodplain inundation model performs well for ecological and management applications in a large river ecosystem

Flooding is a dominant physical process that drives the form and function of river-floodplain ecosystems. Efficiently characterizing flooding dynamics can be challenging, especially over geographically broad areas or at spatial and temporal scales relevant for ecosystem management activities. Here, we empirically evaluated a low-complexity geospatial model of floodplain inundation in six study segments of the Upper Mississippi River System (UMRS) by pairing spatially extensive, temporally limited and spatially limited, temporally extensive sampling designs. We found little evidence of systematic bias in model performance although discrepancies between model predictions and empirical data did occur locally. Assessments of model predictions revealed low segment-wide discrepancies of wetted extent under contrasting flow conditions and agreement for inundation event detection and duration. Model performance for predicting event frequency and duration was similar among sites expected to exhibit contrasting patterns of hydrologic connectivity with the main channel. Our results suggest that low-complexity models can efficiently characterize a critical physical process across geographically broad, complex river-floodplain ecosystems. Such tools have the potential for advancing scientific understanding of landscape-scale ecological patterns and for prioritizing management actions in large, complex river-floodplain ecosystems like the UMRS.

Illinois, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Wisconsin↗

USGS2023

Attributes of Upper Mississippi River System contiguous forest areas

Floodplain forests are important features of river systems as they create habitat for a variety of wildlife species as well as influence water quality by sequestering nutrients. The ecological conditions found within forested areas can vary greatly from place to place, contributing to spatial variability in species diversity, animal use of the floodplain, and other ecological functions. For this reason, it is important for managers and researchers to identify and map existing forest conditions for use in restoration practices or research studies. A number of forest attributes have been identified as useful in predicting the local ecological conditions found within forested areas. For example, attributes related to the size, shape and configuration of forest patches have been linked to susceptibility to invasion by exotic species, animal and plant dispersal patterns, population distributions, and species diversity (Zuidema and others, 1996; Laurance and others, 2001; Weathers and others, 2001; Lindenmayer and Franklin 2002; Harper and others, 2005; Ramaharitra 2006). In floodplain forests, patterns of inundation have been shown to influence local soil conditions as well as plant species composition and diversity (De Jager and others, 2012). Knowing the land-use history of forest areas has also been shown to be important in understanding present day ecological conditions of forested areas (Turner and others, 2004). To support floodplain forest research and management actions on the Upper Mississippi River System (UMRS), we identified contiguous forested areas (i.e., areas of forest cover that were separated from each other by other land or water cover types) in the floodplain and calculated a wide range of attributes that define basic ecosystem conditions within such forested areas. The data allows users to query on a set of attributes (e.g., size, shape, inundation characteristics, etc.) to visualize the distribution of various ecological conditions. In addition, the data allows for future data analyses of relationships among different ecological conditions and other data, such as animal and plant population distributions.

Upper Mississippi River system↗

USGS2022

Resisting-accepting-directing: Ecosystem management guided by an ecological resilience assessment

As anthropogenic influences push ecosystems past tipping points and into new regimes, complex management decisions are complicated by rapid ecosystem changes that may be difficult to reverse. For managers who grapple with how to manage ecosystems under novel conditions and heightened uncertainty, advancing our understanding of regime shifts is paramount. As part of an ecological resilience assessment, researchers and managers have collaborated to identify alternate regimes and build an understanding of the thresholds and factors that govern regime shifts in the Upper Mississippi River System. To describe the management implications of our assessment, we integrate our findings with a recently developed framework that explicitly acknowledges ecosystem regime change and outlines management approaches of resisting change, accepting change, or directing change. More specifically, we developed guidance for using knowledge of desirability of current conditions, distance to thresholds, and general resilience (that is, an ecosystem’s capacity to cope with uncertain disturbances) to navigate the resist-accept-direct (RAD) framework. We applied this guidance to outline strategies that resist, accept, or direct change in the context of management of aquatic vegetation, floodplain vegetation, and fish communities across nearly 2000 river kilometers. We provide a case study for how knowledge of ecological dynamics can aid in assessing which management approach(es) are likely to be most ecologically feasible in a changing world. Continued learning from management decisions will be critical to advance our understanding of how ecosystems respond and inform the management of ecosystems for desirable and resilient outcomes.

Illinois, Iowa, Kentucky, Minnesota, Missouri, Wis↗

USGS2020

Climate change Is likely to alter future wolf - moose - forest interactions at Isle Royale National Park, United States

We evaluated how climate change and variable rates of moose browsing intensity, as they relate to wolf predation, might affect the forests of Isle Royale National Park, Michigan, United States by conducting a modeling experiment. The experiment consisted of contrasting three different scenarios of wolf management and with a static (current conditions) and changing climate (high emissions). Our results indicate that the interactive effects of wolf predation and climate change are likely to be temporally variable and dependent on biogeographic and forest successional processes. During the first 50 years of 120-year simulations, when the effects of climate change were less impactful, higher simulated rates of predation by wolves reduced moose population densities, resulting in greater forest biomass and higher carrying capacities for moose. However, over the longer term, early successional and highly palatable aspen and birch forests transitioned to late successional spruce and fir forests, regardless of climate or predation intensity. After 50 years, the effects of climate change and predation were driven by effects on balsam fir, a late successional conifer species that is fed on by moose. High-intensity predation of moose allowed balsam fir to persist over the long term but only under the static climate scenario. The climate change scenario caused a reduction in balsam fir and the other boreal species that moose currently feed on, and the few temperate species found on this isolated island were unable to compensate for such reductions, causing strong declines in total forest biomass. The direct effects of moose population management via reintroduction of wolves may become increasingly ineffective as the climate continues to warm because the productivity of boreal plant species may not be sufficient to support a moose population, and the isolation of the island from mainland temperate tree species may reduce the likelihood of compensatory species migrations.

Michigan↗

USGS2020

Quantifying and mapping inundation regimes within a large river‐floodplain ecosystem for ecological and management applications

Spatial information on the distribution of ecosystem patterns and processes can be a critical component of designing and implementing effective management programs in river‐floodplain ecosystems. For example, translating how flood pulses detected within a stream gauge record are spatially manifested across a river‐valley bottom can be used to evaluate whether the current distribution of physical conditions has the potential to support priority habitats or if intervention is needed to meet desired goals. The size and complexity of large river‐floodplain systems can make mapping inundation dynamics a challenging task. We used a geospatial model to simulate 40 years (1972–2011) of daily surface‐water inundation depths for 11,331 km 2 of the Upper Mississippi River System floodplain. We identified discrete inundation events at each 4‐m × 4‐m pixel in the model as sequential days of submergence. We then quantified and mapped four aspects of inundation regime – event frequency, duration, magnitude, and timing – for each pixel. The spatial distribution of inundation regime attributes varied within and among multiple levels of river organization, including navigation pools and geomorphic reaches, but only event timing exhibited a strong down‐river trend. Non‐linear relations among inundation attributes and their geospatial distributions likely reflect complex interactions among topographic, hydrologic, and anthropogenic constraints on flooding dynamics. Together, our results reveal spatial gradients in inundation dynamics not captured by hydrologic data alone. Characterizing such diversity in inundation dynamics is important for testing hypotheses about ecological processes, developing models of ecosystem functions, and informing management actions.

Illinois, Indiana, Iowa, Minnesota, Missouri, Wisc↗

USGS2020

Preliminary analysis to estimate the spatial distribution of benefits of P load reduction: Identifying the spatial influence of phosphorus loading from the Maumee River (USA) in western Lake Erie

Since the early 2000s, Lake Erie has been experiencing annual cyanobacterial blooms that often cover large portions of the western basin and even reach into the central basin. These blooms have affected several ecosystem services provided by Lake Erie to surrounding communities (notably drinking water quality). Several modeling efforts have identified the springtime total bioavailable phosphorus (TBP) load as a major driver of maximum cyanobacterial biomass in western Lake Erie, and on this basis, international water management bodies have set a phosphorus (P) reduction goal. This P reduction goal is intended to reduce maximum cyanobacterial biomass, but there has been very limited effort to identify the specific locations within the western basin of Lake Erie that will likely experience the most benefits. Here, we used pixel‐specific linear regression to identify where annual variation in spring TBP loads is most strongly associated with cyanobacterial abundance, as inferred from satellite imagery. Using this approach, we find that annual TBP loads are most strongly associated with cyanobacterial abundance in the central and southern areas of the western basin. At the location of the Toledo water intake, the association between TBP load and cyanobacterial abundance is moderate, and in Maumee Bay (near Toledo, Ohio), the association between TBP and cyanobacterial abundance is no better than a null model. Both of these locations are important for the delivery of specific ecosystem services, but this analysis indicates that P load reductions would not be expected to substantially improve maximum annual cyanobacterial abundance in these locations. These results are preliminary in the sense that only a limited set of models were tested in this analysis, but these results illustrate the importance of identifying whether the spatial distribution of management benefits (in this case P load reduction) matches the spatial distribution of management goals (reducing the effects of cyanobacteria on important ecosystem services).

Michigan, Ohio↗