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Nathan L. Stephenson

Publications and source records attributed to Nathan L. Stephenson.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources
USGS2016

Does prescribed fire promote resistance to drought in low elevation forests of the Sierra Nevada, California, USA?

Prescribed fire is a primary tool used to restore western forests following more than a century of fire exclusion, reducing fire hazard by removing dead and live fuels (small trees and shrubs). It is commonly assumed that the reduced forest density following prescribed fire also reduces competition for resources among the remaining trees, so that the remaining trees are more resistant (more likely to survive) in the face of additional stressors, such as drought. Yet this proposition remains largely untested, so that managers do not have the basic information to evaluate whether prescribed fire may help forests adapt to a future of more frequent and severe drought. During the third year of drought, in 2014, we surveyed 9950 trees in 38 burned and 18 unburned mixed conifer forest plots at low elevation (<2100 m a.s.l.) in Kings Canyon, Sequoia, and Yosemite national parks in California, USA. Fire had occurred in the burned plots from 6 yr to 28 yr before our survey. After accounting for differences in individual tree diameter, common conifer species found in the burned plots had significantly reduced probability of mortality compared to unburned plots during the drought. Stand density (stems ha -1 ) was significantly lower in burned versus unburned sites, supporting the idea that reduced competition may be responsible for the differential drought mortality response. At the time of writing, we are not sure if burned stands will maintain lower tree mortality probabilities in the face of the continued, severe drought of 2015. Future work should aim to better identify drought response mechanisms and how these may vary across other forest types and regions, particularly in other areas experiencing severe drought in the Sierra Nevada and on the Colorado Plateau.

California↗
USGS2016

Why do trees die? Characterizing the drivers of background tree mortality

The drivers of background tree mortality rates—the typical low rates of tree mortality found in forests in the absence of acute stresses like drought—are central to our understanding of forest dynamics, the effects of ongoing environmental changes on forests, and the causes and consequences of geographical gradients in the nature and strength of biotic interactions. To shed light on factors contributing to background tree mortality, we analyzed detailed pathological data from 200,668 tree-years of observation and 3,729 individual tree deaths, recorded over a 13-yr period in a network of old-growth forest plots in California's Sierra Nevada mountain range. We found that: (1) Biotic mortality factors (mostly insects and pathogens) dominated (58%), particularly in larger trees (86%). Bark beetles were the most prevalent (40%), even though there were no outbreaks during the study period; in contrast, the contribution of defoliators was negligible. (2) Relative occurrences of broad classes of mortality factors (biotic, 58%; suppression, 51%; and mechanical, 25%) are similar among tree taxa, but may vary with tree size and growth rate. (3) We found little evidence of distinct groups of mortality factors that predictably occur together on trees. Our results have at least three sets of implications. First, rather than being driven by abiotic factors such as lightning or windstorms, the “ambient” or “random” background mortality that many forest models presume to be independent of tree growth rate is instead dominated by biotic agents of tree mortality, with potentially critical implications for forecasting future mortality. Mechanistic models of background mortality, even for healthy, rapidly growing trees, must therefore include the insects and pathogens that kill trees. Second, the biotic agents of tree mortality, instead of occurring in a few predictable combinations, may generally act opportunistically and with a relatively large degree of independence from one another. Finally, beyond the current emphasis on folivory and leaf defenses, studies of broad-scale gradients in the nature and strength of biotic interactions should also include biotic attacks on, and defenses of, tree stems and roots.

Ecology↗
USGS2016

Montane Forests

This long-anticipated reference and sourcebook for California&rsquo;s remarkable ecological abundance provides an integrated assessment of each major ecosystem type&mdash;its distribution, structure, function, and management. A comprehensive synthesis of our knowledge about this biologically diverse state, Ecosystems of California covers the state from oceans to mountaintops using multiple lenses: past and present, flora and fauna, aquatic and terrestrial, natural and managed. Each chapter evaluates natural processes for a specific ecosystem, describes drivers of change, and discusses how that ecosystem may be altered in the future. This book also explores the drivers of California&rsquo;s ecological patterns and the history of the state&rsquo;s various ecosystems, outlining how the challenges of climate change and invasive species and opportunities for regulation and stewardship could potentially affect the state&rsquo;s ecosystems. The text explicitly incorporates both human impacts and conservation and restoration efforts and shows how ecosystems support human well-being. Edited by two esteemed ecosystem ecologists and with overviews by leading experts on each ecosystem, this definitive work will be indispensable for natural resource management and conservation professionals as well as for undergraduate or graduate students of California&rsquo;s environment and curious naturalists.

Book chapter↗
USGS2015

Increasing elevation of fire in the Sierra Nevada and implications for forest change

Fire in high-elevation forest ecosystems can have severe impacts on forest structure, function and biodiversity. Using a 105-year data set, we found increasing elevation extent of fires in the Sierra Nevada, and pose five hypotheses to explain this pattern. Beyond the recognized pattern of increasing fire frequency in the Sierra Nevada since the late 20th century, we find that the upper elevation extent of those fires has also been increasing. Factors such as fire season climate and fuel build up are recognized potential drivers of changes in fire regimes. Patterns of warming climate and increasing stand density are consistent with both the direction and magnitude of increasing elevation of wildfire. Reduction in high elevation wildfire suppression and increasing ignition frequencies may also contribute to the observed pattern. Historical biases in fire reporting are recognized, but not likely to explain the observed patterns. The four plausible mechanistic hypotheses (changes in fire management, climate, fuels, ignitions) are not mutually exclusive, and likely have synergistic interactions that may explain the observed changes. Irrespective of mechanism, the observed pattern of increasing occurrence of fire in these subalpine forests may have significant impacts on their resilience to changing climatic conditions.

California↗
USGS2015

Tree mortality from drought, insects, and their interactions in a changing climate

Climate change is expected to drive increased tree mortality through drought, heat stress, and insect attacks, with manifold impacts on forest ecosystems. Yet, climate-induced tree mortality and biotic disturbance agents are largely absent from process-based ecosystem models. Using data sets from the western USA and associated studies, we present a framework for determining the relative contribution of drought stress, insect attack, and their interactions, which is critical for modeling mortality in future climates. We outline a simple approach that identifies the mechanisms associated with two guilds of insects &ndash; bark beetles and defoliators &ndash; which are responsible for substantial tree mortality. We then discuss cross-biome patterns of insect-driven tree mortality and draw upon available evidence contrasting the prevalence of insect outbreaks in temperate and tropical regions. We conclude with an overview of tools and promising avenues to address major challenges. Ultimately, a multitrophic approach that captures tree physiology, insect populations, and tree&ndash;insect interactions will better inform projections of forest ecosystem responses to climate change.

New Phytologist↗
USGS2015

Temperate forest health in an era of emerging megadisturbance

Although disturbances such as fire and native insects can contribute to natural dynamics of forest health, exceptional droughts, directly and in combination with other disturbance factors, are pushing some temperate forests beyond thresholds of sustainability. Interactions from increasing temperatures, drought, native insects and pathogens, and uncharacteristically severe wildfire are resulting in forest mortality beyond the levels of 20th-century experience. Additional anthropogenic stressors, such as atmospheric pollution and invasive species, further weaken trees in some regions. Although continuing climate change will likely drive many areas of temperate forest toward large-scale transformations, management actions can help ease transitions and minimize losses of socially valued ecosystem services.

Science↗
USGS2015

Improving estimates of tree mortality probability using potential growth rate

Tree growth rate is frequently used to estimate mortality probability. Yet, growth metrics can vary in form, and the justification for using one over another is rarely clear. We tested whether a growth index (GI) that scales the realized diameter growth rate against the potential diameter growth rate (PDGR) would give better estimates of mortality probability than other measures. We also tested whether PDGR, being a function of tree size, might better correlate with the baseline mortality probability than direct measurements of size such as diameter or basal area. Using a long-term dataset from the Sierra Nevada, California, U.S.A., as well as existing species-specific estimates of PDGR, we developed growth&ndash;mortality models for four common species. For three of the four species, models that included GI, PDGR, or a combination of GI and PDGR were substantially better than models without them. For the fourth species, the models including GI and PDGR performed roughly as well as a model that included only the diameter growth rate. Our results suggest that using PDGR can improve our ability to estimate tree survival probability. However, in the absence of PDGR estimates, the diameter growth rate was the best empirical predictor of mortality, in contrast to assumptions often made in the literature.

California↗
USGS2015

Making the transition to the third era of natural resources management

We are entering the third era of National Park Service (NPS) natural resources management&mdash; an era defined by rapid and unprecedented global changes. This third era promises to overturn not only some of our most fundamental assumptions about parks and protected areas, but also many of the ideals we currently hold dear. A common initial reaction to the diverse challenges of this transition is to feel overwhelmed and adrift; I have certainly had such feelings myself. But these feelings carry the risk of reducing our effectiveness as resource stewards right when we can least afford to be less effective: during a transition that is demanding us to be particularly clear-headed and far-seeing. Here I briefly examine some of the challenges of this new era, focusing on those that can most often elicit feelings of discouragement. When we examine the challenges individually, they begin to lose some of their ability to cast gloom&mdash;especially when we consider them in the light of lessons from an earlier fundamental transition in NPS natural resources management, beginning a half-century ago. My perspective is shaped by my 35 years as a place-based scientist stationed in a large national park (Sequoia and Kings Canyon), and by my passion for national parks in general. While the discussion that follows is most relevant to large national parks set aside primarily for their natural features, several of the ideas are also relevant to other park units.

The George Wright Forum↗
USGS2013

Climatic correlates of tree mortality in water- and energy-limited forests

Recent increases in tree mortality rates across the western USA are correlated with increasing temperatures, but mechanisms remain unresolved. Specifically, increasing mortality could predominantly be a consequence of temperature-induced increases in either (1) drought stress, or (2) the effectiveness of tree-killing insects and pathogens. Using long-term data from California’s Sierra Nevada mountain range, we found that in water-limited (low-elevation) forests mortality was unambiguously best modeled by climatic water deficit, consistent with the first mechanism. In energy-limited (high-elevation) forests deficit models were only equivocally better than temperature models, suggesting that the second mechanism is increasingly important in these forests. We could not distinguish between models predicting mortality using absolute versus relative changes in water deficit, and these two model types led to different forecasts of mortality vulnerability under future climate scenarios. Our results provide evidence for differing climatic controls of tree mortality in water- and energy-limited forests, while highlighting the need for an improved understanding of tree mortality processes.

California↗
USGS2013

A natural resource condition assessment for Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks: Appendix 22: climatic change

Climate is a master controller of the structure, composition, and function of biotic communities, affecting them both directly, through physiological effects, and indirectly, by mediating biotic interactions and by influencing disturbance regimes. Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Park’s (SEKI’s) dramatic elevational changes in biotic communities -- from warm mediterranean to cold alpine -- are but one manifestation of climate’s overarching importance in shaping SEKI’s landscape. Yet humans are now altering the global climate, with measurable effects on ecosystems (IPCC 2007). Over the last few decades across the western United States, human-induced climatic changes have likely contributed to observed declines in fraction of precipitation falling as snow and snowpack water content (Mote et al. 2005, Knowles et al. 2006), advance in spring snowmelt (Stewart et al. 2005, Barnett et al. 2008), and consequent increase in area burned in wildfires (Westerling et al. 2006). In the Sierra Nevada, warming temperatures have likely contributed to observed glacial recession (Basagic 2008), uphill migration of small mammals (Moritz et al. 2008), and increasing tree mortality rates (van Mantgem and Stephenson 2007, van Mantgem et al. 2009). More substantial changes can be expected for the future (e.g., IPCC 2007). Given the central importance of climate and climatic changes, we sought to describe long-term trends in temperature and precipitation at SEKI. Time and budget constraints limited us to analyses of mean annual temperature and mean annual precipitation, using readily-available data. If funds become available in the future, further analyses will be needed to analyze trends by season, trends in daily minimum and maximum temperatures, and so on. We chose to analyze data from individual weather stations rather than use interpolated climatic data from sources such as PRISM (http://www.prism.oregonstate.edu/). In topographically complex mountainous regions with few weather stations, like SEKI, the addition or subtraction of even a single weather station through time has the potential to significantly bias trends in interpolated data. In particular, this analysis was motivated by our questioning of some PRISM results presented in Appendix 1 (Landscape Context) that compared temperature averages between two 30-year periods of the 20th Century. Figures 6 and 11 of Appendix 1 indicate that recent (1971-2000) temperatures in northern Kings Canyon National Park averaged some 2° C cooler than those of 1911-1940. This would represent a truly profound and persistent cooling, and seems to be at odds both with the glacial retreats observed in the area over the century (Basagic 2008), and with the reported PRISM warming of nearly 2° C just to the west of the cooling (see Figs. 6 and 11 in Appendix 1). We suspect that the extreme localized Kings Canyon cooling reported by PRISM is an artifact of sparsely-distributed weather stations in the region being added and discontinued over the span of the 20th Century. For example, data from the Western Regional Climate Center (http://www.wrcc.dri.edu/coopmap/) suggest that for the period 1911 through 1924 PRISM must interpolate northern Kings Canyon temperatures based on a few low-elevation stations -- separated by hundreds of kilometers -- in Nevada and California’s San Joaquin Valley. In contrast, by 1970 PRISM interpolations will be dominated by closer, higher-elevation stations (see this report). The single weather station closest to northern Kings Canyon that has a temperature record at least partly spanning Appendix 1’s two 30-year time periods -- the Independence station, with a relatively continuous temperature record starting in 1925 -- shows a modest warming, not a cooling, between 1925-1940 and 1971-2000, further casting doubt on the Kings Canyon cooling shown in Figs. 6 and 11 of Appendix 1. If funds become available, it will be useful to more formally analyze potential PRISM biases in long-term SEKI climatic trends. Until then, the analyses of individual weather station records presented here (effectively an analysis of source data that PRISM uses) are meant to provide a robust summary of climatic changes in SEKI.

California↗
USGS2013

A natural resource condition assessment for Sequoia and Kings Canyon National Parks: Appendix 11a: giant sequoias

For natural resource managers in the southern Sierra Nevada, giant sequoia requires very little introduction. It receives great attention as an icon of western forests and as a common namesake with the areas where it occurs. While it is a single component of a very complex system, its attention in this assessment and in general is well deserved. Giant sequoia is one of the few "destination species" that attracts a wide swath of the public by nature of it simply being present. It draws people, who otherwise may not travel, to a natural environment. The result is an expansion of the public’s sense of natural resource stewardship. Because park managers could not achieve their mission without public support, this fostering role of giant sequoia is critical for park natural resources and is important for natural resources in general. Despite its social relevance and physical size, we re-emphasize here that the giant sequoia resource is a relatively small component of the ecosystems of the southern Sierra Nevada. As is the case with all of the resources assessed in the NRCA, we focus on giant sequoia with the understanding that other resources will be considered simultaneously when evaluating management decisions that impact giant sequoia. While we attempt to explicitly address the interaction of giant sequoia with other resources and stressors, we also realize that ultimately managers will integrate much more information than is presented here when making decisions that influence giant sequoia. The autecology and management issues surrounding giant sequoia have been thoroughly reviewed elsewhere (Harvey et al. 1980, Aune 1994, Stephenson 1996). Stephenson (1996), in particular, should be reviewed when considering any management decisions that potentially impact giant sequoia. For those who may not be familiar with giant sequoia ecology, a summary of basic information is provided in a table below. In some parts of this assessment, we reproduce text from Stephenson’s review because it is still relatively current for addressing some of the stressors. Numerous recent studies reported since 1996 have confirmed and expanded the understanding of giant sequoia, especially in areas related to ecophysiology and the effectiveness of restoration treatments. These recent studies are integrated into this assessment. Additionally, much unpublished work has been done that is useful for establishing baselines and evaluating trends. This work is presented in detail in order to expand upon previous work and to inform the final assessments. Instead of providing an introductory description of giant sequoia distribution and the various landowners who manage groves, we refer readers to the more recent descriptions provided by Stephenson (1996) and Willard (2000). Some of the relevant points from these descriptions with respect to giant sequoia within SEKI and Giant Sequoia National Monument (GSNM) include: - Of the native giant sequoia grove area in SEKI and GSNM approximately 38% is within SEKI and 62% is within GSNM. - 35 of the groves that make up the entire population are all or partially managed by SEKI and 33 are managed by GSNM. - As we have done above, reviewers addressing giant sequoia widely recognize its transcendence beyond an ecologically important species to one with considerable added cultural value.

California↗
USGS2011

Climate-induced tree mortality: Earth system consequences

One of the greatest uncertainties in global environmental change is predicting changes in feedbacks between the biosphere and the Earth system. Terrestrial ecosystems and, in particular, forests exert strong controls on the global carbon cycle and influence regional hydrology and climatology directly through water and surface energy budgets [ Bonan , 2008; Chapin et al. , 2008]. According to new research, tree mortality associated with elevated temperatures and drought has the potential to rapidly alter forest ecosystems, potentially affecting feedbacks to the Earth system [ Allen et al. , 2010]. Several lines of recent research demonstrate how tree mortality rates in forests may be sensitive to climate change—particularly warming and drying. This emerging consequence of global change has important effects on Earth system processes (Figure 1).

Eos, Transactions, American Geophysical Union↗
USGS2011

Long-term effects of prescribed fire on mixed conifer forest structure in the Sierra Nevada, California

The capacity of prescribed fire to restore forest conditions is often judged by changes in forest structure within a few years following burning. However, prescribed fire might have longer-term effects on forest structure, potentially changing treatment assessments. We examined annual changes in forest structure in five 1 ha old-growth plots immediately before prescribed fire and up to eight years after fire at Sequoia National Park, California. Fire-induced declines in stem density (67% average decrease at eight years post-fire) were nonlinear, taking up to eight years to reach a presumed asymptote. Declines in live stem biomass were also nonlinear, but smaller in magnitude (32% average decrease at eight years post-fire) as most large trees survived the fires. The preferential survival of large trees following fire resulted in significant shifts in stem diameter distributions. Mortality rates remained significantly above background rates up to six years after the fires. Prescribed fire did not have a large influence on the representation of dominant species. Fire-caused mortality appeared to be spatially random, and therefore did not generally alter heterogeneous tree spatial patterns. Our results suggest that prescribed fire can bring about substantial changes to forest structure in old-growth mixed conifer forests in the Sierra Nevada, but that long-term observations are needed to fully describe some measures of fire effects.

California↗
USGS2011

Comment on "Changes in climatic water balance drive downhill shifts in plant species' optimum elevations"

Crimmins et al . (Reports, 21 January 2011, p. 324) attributed an apparent downward elevational shift of California plant species to a precipitation-induced decline in climatic water deficit. We show that the authors miscalculated deficit, that the apparent decline in species’ elevations is likely a consequence of geographic biases, and that unlike temperature changes, precipitation changes should not be expected to cause coordinated directional shifts in species’ elevations.

California↗
USGS2011

Causes and implications of the correlation between forest productivity and tree mortality rates

At global and regional scales, tree mortality rates are positively correlated with forest net primary productivity (NPP). Yet causes of the correlation are unknown, in spite of potentially profound implications for our understanding of environmental controls of forest structure and dynamics and, more generally, our understanding of broad-scale environmental controls of population dynamics and ecosystem processes. Here we seek to shed light on the causes of geographic patterns in tree mortality rates, and we consider some implications of the positive correlation between mortality rates and NPP. To reach these ends, we present seven hypotheses potentially explaining the correlation, develop an approach to help distinguish among the hypotheses, and apply the approach in a case study comparing a tropical and temperate forest. Based on our case study and literature synthesis, we conclude that no single mechanism controls geographic patterns of tree mortality rates. At least four different mechanisms may be at play, with the dominant mechanisms depending on whether the underlying productivity gradients are caused by climate or soil fertility. Two of the mechanisms are consequences of environmental selection for certain combinations of life-history traits, reflecting trade-offs between growth and defense (along edaphic productivity gradients) and between reproduction and persistence (as manifested in the adult tree stature continuum along climatic and edaphic gradients). The remaining two mechanisms are consequences of environmental influences on the nature and strength of ecological interactions: competition (along edaphic gradients) and pressure from plant enemies (along climatic gradients). For only one of these four mechanisms, competition, can high mortality rates be considered to be a relatively direct consequence of high NPP. The remaining mechanisms force us to adopt a different view of causality, in which tree growth rates and probability of mortality can vary with at least a degree of independence along productivity gradients. In many cases, rather than being a direct cause of high mortality rates, NPP may remain high in spite of high mortality rates. The independent influence of plant enemies and other factors helps explain why forest biomass can show little correlation, or even negative correlation, with forest NPP.

Ecological Monographs↗
USGS2010

Responding to climate change: A toolbox of management strategies: Chapter 11

Climate change and its effects are writ large across the landscape and in the natural and cultural heritage of parks and wilderness. They always have been and always will be. The sculpted walls of Yosemite National Park and the jagged scenery of the Sierra Nevada wilderness would not be as spectacular if periods of glaciation had not been followed by periods of deglaciation. High biodiversity in forests of the Great Smoky Mountains reflects a legacy of climate change, migrating species, and isolated climatic refugia. Fossils unearthed at Dinosaur National Monument reflect a time when the climate was very different than it is today, as do ruins left by peoples who practiced agriculture in places in the American Southwest where food production is not possible today. Over eons, climate change has molded the diversity of life and landscape in areas now protected as parks and wilderness.

Book chapter↗
USGS2010

Shifting environmental foundations: The unprecedented and unpredictable future: Chapter 4

As described in Chapter 2, protected area managers have been directed, through statutes and agency policy, to preserve natural conditions in parks and wilderness. Although preserving naturalness has always been a challenge for managers, there has never been much question about whether this is the right thing to do. But given what is known now about the pace and magnitude of ongoing global changes, the appropriateness of naturalness as a management goal must be reexamined. A host of anthropogenic environmental stressors are reshaping ecosystems, including those protected in parks and wilderness. Pollution is now ubiquitous worldwide, and invasive species are common in most landscapes. Habitats have become highly fragmented, and climatic changes are dramatically altering the abiotic conditions in which biota live. Given these changes, some attempts to restore and maintain naturalness may at best be ineffective; at worst, they could waste precious resources and even contribute to loss of some of the values that managers are trying to protect.

Book chapter↗