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Natalie R. Wilson

Publications and source records attributed to Natalie R. Wilson.

12 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2026

Satellite time series analysis to quantify changing climax ciénegas using a state and transition model approach

Ciénegas are rare wetlands in arid landscapes of the North American Southwest, historically providing critical ecological and hydrological functions but increasingly threatened by changing climate and land use pressures. This study quantifies changes in ciénega condition and floodplain dynamics using a state-and-transition model (STM) informed by expert knowledge and remote sensing. Key factors include woody plant encroachment, water availability, and soil aggradation. We mapped 31 ciénegas with high-resolution imagery and analyzed Landsat data (1985–2023) to assess vegetation health and moisture using the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and Normalized Difference Infrared Index (NDII). Results show substantial interannual variability in phenology, water stress, and soil moisture, with regional drying and elevation strongly influencing ciénega resilience. We classified ciénegas into three functional states—healthy, desiccated, and dormant—and mapped their 2023 condition. Trend analyses indicate most ciénegas exhibit greening despite drought, though localized variability underscores the need for site-specific management. None are in a stable climax (reference) state; rather, they transition among states in response to external drivers. Increasing woody plant cover and surface drying, likely linked to declining regional water tables, favor deep-rooted species over wetland grasses—a pattern mirrored in adjacent control plots. Spatially explicit analysis revealed intra-ciénega variability often masked by aggregated data, highlighting the importance of high-resolution monitoring. Seasonal and long-term trends provide context for understanding ciénega dynamics, including degradation and restoration pathways. This study emphasizes the importance of groundwater conservation and demonstrates how remote sensing supports long-term monitoring. The STM framework offers a practical tool for adaptive management to sustain freshwater resources in arid environments.

Arizona, New Mexico↗
USGS2026

Los Planes watershed vegetation monitoring: Standard operating procedures

This is a description of survey procedures for short term vegetation monitoring at Natural Infrastructure in Dryland Stream (NIDS) structure sites and control sites a ranch in the Los Planes, La Paz, Baja California Sur. This study design was modified from USGS Short Term Vegetation Response Study (Wilson et al. 2021) with the goal to quantify changes in species abundance/cover, structure, and composition. The Society of Ecological Restoration identifies 3 major ecosystem attributes of importance when assessing restoration projects, such as the installation of NIDS (Society for Ecological Restoration International Science & Policy Working Group 2004; Ruiz-Jaen and Mitchell Aide 2005). These attributes are vegetation structure, diversity, and ecological processes. Our protocol can be used to directly quantify vegetation structure and diversity and by collecting data over several years we can indirectly assess the ecohydrological processes associated with NIDS (Norman, Lal, et al. 2022).

Baja California Sur↗
USGS2025

“Leaky weirs” capture alluvial deposition and enhance seasonal mountain-front recharge in dryland streams

“Leaky weirs” are rock structures installed in dryland streams, which are anchored into exposed bedrock, loosely cemented, and designed to allow water to slowly pass through. They are being tested at a ranch in southeastern Arizona, USA, to restore and conserve the historic range and desert wetlands. Data are collected to assess how leaky weirs impact surface water, subsurface water, and groundwater recharge—including stream discharge, timing, and depth of infiltration, and groundwater elevations. Three adjacent watersheds, two with outlets just below leaky weirs and one with leaky weirs farther upstream, were instrumented with water-level loggers, wildlife cameras, and crest stage instruments with temperature sensors in the soil. As most groundwater recharge is assumed to be focused along the mountain fronts in this region, mountain-block recharge is also evaluated to differentiate between the two using isotope analyses. Finally, a single, late-season flood event is scrutinized to consider the leaky weir effect on all monitored components in the water budget. Results indicated groundwater flow is primarily from the mountains to the east via older, regional mountain-block recharge. However, the development of shallow alluvial aquifers is supported by the leaky weirs, that slow flows, capture permeable sediments, and allow infiltration, thus enhancing mountain-front recharge. In turn, these new pockets of water help support the restoration of historic wetlands. Sediment accumulates where leaky weirs are installed, reducing flashy peak flows, and resulting in a series of infiltration ponds along the channel that support vegetation during growing seasons and recharge the shallow aquifer during non-growing seasons.

Arizona↗
USGS2022

Five year analyses of vegetation response to restoration using rock detention structures in southeastern Arizona, United States

Rock detention structures (RDS) are used in restoration of riparian areas around the world. The purpose of this study was to analyze the effect of RDS installation on vegetation in terms of species abundance and composition. We present the results from 5 years of annual vegetation sampling which focused on short term non-woody vegetation response within the riparian channel at 3 restoration sites across southeastern Arizona. We examined the potential ways that RDS can preserve native species, encourage wetland species, and/or introduce nonnative species using a Control-Impact-Paired-Series study design. Species composition and frequency were measured within quadrats and zones on an annual basis. Multivariate bootstrap analyses were performed, including Bray-Curtis dissimilarity index and non-metric multidimensional scaling ordination. We found that response to RDS was variable and could be related to the level of degradation or proximity to groundwater. The non-degraded site did not show a response to RDS and the severely degraded site showed a slight increase in vegetation frequency, but the moderately degraded site experienced a significant increase. At the moderately degraded site, located between two historic ciénegas (desert wetlands), species composition shifted and nonnative species invaded, dominating the vegetation increase at this location. At the severely degraded site, pre-existing wetland species frequency increased in response to the installation of RDS. These findings extend the understanding of RDS effects on vegetation, provide scenarios to help land and water resource managers understand potential outcomes, and can assist in optimizing success for restoration projects.

Arizona↗
USGS2021

Editorial: Combining the science and practice of restoration ecology-Case studies of a grassroots binational restoration collaborative in the Madrean Archipelago Ecoregion (2014- 2019)

The Sky Island Restoration Collaborative (SIRC) is a growing partnership between government agencies, nonprofit organizations, and private landowners in southeast Arizona, the United States, and northern Sonora, Mexico. Starting in 2014 as an experiment to cultivate restoration efforts by connecting people across vocations and nations, SIRC has evolved over 5 years into a flourishing landscape-restoration initiative. The group is founded on the concept of developing a restoration economy, where ecological and socioeconomic benefits are interconnected and complimentary. The variety of ideas, people, field sites, administration, and organizations promote learning and increase project success through iterative adaptive management, transparency, and sharing. The collaborative seeks to make restoration self-sustaining and improve quality of life for citizens living along the US-Mexico border. Research and experiments are developed between scientists and practitioners to test hypotheses, qualify procedures, and quantify impacts on shared projects. Simultaneously, partners encourage and facilitate connecting more people to the landscape—via volunteerism, internships, training, and mentoring. Through this history, SIRC’s evolution is pioneering the integration of community and ecological restoration to protect biodiversity in the Madrean Archipelago Ecoregion. This editorial introduces SIRC as a unique opportunity for scientists and practitioners looking to engage in binational partnerships and segues into this special journal issue we have assembled that relates new findings in the field of restoration ecology.

Arizona, New Mexico↗
USGS2019

Modelling development of riparian ranchlands using ecosystem services at the Aravaipa Watershed, SE Arizona

This paper describes how subdivision and development of rangelands within a remote and celebrated semiarid watershed near the US-Mexico border might affect multiple ecohydrological services provided, such as recharge of the aquifer, water and sediment yield, water quality, flow rates and downstream cultural and natural resources. Specifically, we apply an uncalibrated watershed model and land-change forecasting scenario to consider the potential effects of converting rangelands to housing developments and document potential changes in hydrological ecosystem services. A new method to incorporate weather data in watershed modelling is introduced. Results of introducing residential development in this fragile arid environment portray changes in the water budget, including increases in surface-water runoff, water yield, and total sediment loading. Our findings also predict slight reductions in lateral soil water, a component of the water budget that is increasingly becoming recognized as critical to maintaining water availability in arid regions. We discuss how the proposed development on shrub/scrub rangelands could threaten to sever imperative ecohydrological interactions and impact multiple ecosystem services. This research highlights rangeland management issues important for the protection of open-space, economic valuation of rangeland ecosystem services, conservation easements, and incentives to develop markets for these.

Arizona↗
USGS2019

Modeling riparian restoration impacts on the hydrologic cycle at the Babacomari Ranch, SE Arizona, USA

This paper describes coupling field experiments with surface and groundwater modeling to investigate rangelands of SE Arizona, USA using erosion-control structures to augment shallow and deep aquifer recharge. We collected field data to describe the physical and hydrological properties before and after gabions (caged riprap) were installed in an ephemeral channel. The modular finite-difference flow model is applied to simulate the amount of increase needed to raise groundwater levels. We used the average increase in infiltration measured in the field and projected on site, assuming all infiltration becomes recharge, to estimate how many gabions would be needed to increase recharge in the larger watershed. A watershed model was then applied and calibrated with discharge and 3D terrain measurements, to simulate flow volumes. Findings were coupled to extrapolate simulations and quantify long-term impacts of riparian restoration. Projected scenarios demonstrate how erosion-control structures could impact all components of the annual water budget. Results support the potential of watershed-wide gabion installation to increase total aquifer recharge, with models portraying increased subsurface connectivity and accentuated lateral flow contributions.

Arizona↗
USGS2018

Urban growth and landscape connectivity threats assessment at Saguaro National Park, Arizona, USA

Urban and exurban expansion results in habitat and biodiversity loss globally. We hypothesize that a coupled-model approach could connect urban planning for future cities with landscape ecology to consider wildland habitat connectivity. Our work combines urban growth simulations with models of wildlife corridors to examine how species will be impacted by development to test this hypothesis. We leverage a land use change model (SLEUTH) with structural and functional landscape-connectivity modeling techniques to ascertain the spatial extent and locations of connectivity related threats to a national park in southern Arizona, USA, and describe how protected areas might be impacted by urban expansion. Results of projected growth significantly altered structural connectivity (80%) when compared to current (baseline) corridor conditions. Moreover, projected growth impacted functional connectivity differently amongst species, indicating resilience of some species and near-complete displacement of others. We propose that implementing a geospatial-design-based model will allow for a better understanding of the impacts management decisions have on wildlife populations. The application provides the potential to understand both human and environmental impacts of land-system dynamics, critical for long-term sustainability.

Arizona↗
USGS2018

Analysis of vegetation recovery surrounding a restored wetland using the normalized difference infrared index (NDII) and normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI)

Watershed restoration efforts seek to rejuvenate vegetation, biological diversity, and land productivity at Cienega San Bernardino, an important wetland in southeastern Arizona and northern Sonora, Mexico. Rock detention and earthen berm structures were built on the Cienega San Bernardino over the course of four decades, beginning in 1984 and continuing to the present. Previous research findings show that restoration supports and even increases vegetation health despite ongoing drought conditions in this arid watershed. However, the extent of restoration impacts is still unknown despite qualitative observations of improvement in surrounding vegetation amount and vigor. We analyzed spatial and temporal trends in vegetation greenness and soil moisture by applying the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) and normalized difference infrared index (NDII) to one dry summer season Landsat path/row from 1984 to 2016. The study area was divided into zones and spectral data for each zone was analyzed and compared with precipitation record using statistical measures including linear regression, Mann– Kendall test, and linear correlation. NDVI and NDII performed differently due to the presence of continued grazing and the effects of grazing on canopy cover; NDVI was better able to track changes in vegetation in areas without grazing while NDII was better at tracking changes in areas with continued grazing. Restoration impacts display higher greenness and vegetation water content levels, greater increases in greenness and water content through time, and a decoupling of vegetation greenness and water content from spring precipitation when compared to control sites in nearby tributary and upland areas. Our results confirm the potential of erosion control structures to affect areas up to 5 km downstream of restoration sites over time and to affect 1 km upstream of the sites.

Cuenca Los Ojos, San Bernardino National Wildlife ↗
USGS2018

Remote sensing analysis of vegetation at the San Carlos Apache Reservation, Arizona and surrounding area

Mapping of vegetation types is of great importance to the San Carlos Apache Tribe and their management of forestry and fire fuels. Various remote sensing techniques were applied to classify multitemporal Landsat 8 satellite data, vegetation index, and digital elevation model data. A multitiered unsupervised classification generated over 900 classes that were then recoded to one of the 16 generalized vegetation/land cover classes using the Southwest Regional Gap Analysis Project (SWReGAP) map as a guide. A supervised classification was also run using field data collected in the SWReGAP project and our field campaign. Field data were gathered and accuracy assessments were generated to compare outputs. Our hypothesis was that a resulting map would update and potentially improve upon the vegetation/land cover class distributions of the older SWReGAP map over the 24,000 km 2 study area. The estimated overall accuracies ranged between 43% and 75%, depending on which method and field dataset were used. The findings demonstrate the complexity of vegetation mapping, the importance of recent, high-quality-field data, and the potential for misleading results when insufficient field data are collected.

Arizona↗
USGS2016

Comparison of remote sensing indices for monitoring of desert cienegas

This research considers the applicability of different vegetation indices at 30 m resolution for mapping and monitoring desert wetland (cienega) health and spatial extent through time at Cienega Creek in southeastern Arizona, USA. Multiple stressors including the risk of decadal-scale drought, the effects of current and predicted global warming, and continued anthropogenic pressures threaten aquatic habitats in the southwest and cienegas are recognized as important sites for conservation and restoration efforts. However, cienegas present a challenge to satellite-imagery based analysis due to their small size and mixed surface cover of open water, exposed soils, and vegetation. We created time series of five well-known vegetation indices using annual Landsat Thematic Mapper (TM) images retrieved during the April–June dry season, from 1984 to 2011 to map landscape-level distribution of wetlands and monitor the temporal dynamics of individual sites. Indices included the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), the Soil-Adjusted Vegetation Index (SAVI), the Normalized Difference Water Index (NDWI), and the Normalized Difference Infrared Index (NDII). One topographic index, the Topographic Wetness Index (TWI), was analyzed to examine the utility of topography in mapping distribution of cienegas. Our results indicate that the NDII, calculated using Landsat TM band 5, outperforms the other indices at differentiating cienegas from riparian and upland sites, and was the best means to analyze change. As such, it offers a critical baseline for future studies that seek to extend the analysis of cienegas to other regions and time scales, and has broader applicability to the remote sensing of wetland features in arid landscapes.

Arizona↗