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USGS2014

Improving groundwater predictions utilizing seasonal precipitation forecasts from general circulation models forced with sea surface temperature forecasts

Recent studies have found a significant association between climatic variability and basin hydroclimatology, particularly groundwater levels, over the southeast United States. The research reported in this paper evaluates the potential in developing 6-month-ahead groundwater-level forecasts based on the precipitation forecasts from ECHAM 4.5 General Circulation Model Forced with Sea Surface Temperature forecasts. Ten groundwater wells and nine streamgauges from the USGS Groundwater Climate Response Network and Hydro-Climatic Data Network were selected to represent groundwater and surface water flows, respectively, having minimal anthropogenic influences within the Flint River Basin in Georgia, United States. The writers employ two low-dimensional models [principle component regression (PCR) and canonical correlation analysis (CCA)] for predicting groundwater and streamflow at both seasonal and monthly timescales. Three modeling schemes are considered at the beginning of January to predict winter (January, February, and March) and spring (April, May, and June) streamflow and groundwater for the selected sites within the Flint River Basin. The first scheme (model 1) is a null model and is developed using PCR for every streamflow and groundwater site using previous 3-month observations (October, November, and December) available at that particular site as predictors. Modeling schemes 2 and 3 are developed using PCR and CCA, respectively, to evaluate the role of precipitation forecasts in improving monthly and seasonal groundwater predictions. Modeling scheme 3, which employs a CCA approach, is developed for each site by considering observed groundwater levels from nearby sites as predictands. The performance of these three schemes is evaluated using two metrics (correlation coefficient and relative RMS error) by developing groundwater-level forecasts based on leave-five-out cross-validation. Results from the research reported in this paper show that using precipitation forecasts in climate models improves the ability to predict the interannual variability of winter and spring streamflow and groundwater levels over the basin. However, significant conditional bias exists in all the three modeling schemes, which indicates the need to consider improved modeling schemes as well as the availability of longer time-series of observed hydroclimatic information over the basin.

Georgia↗

USGS2011

Fluctuations in groundwater levels related to regional and local withdrawals in the fractured-bedrock groundwater system in northern Wake County, North Carolina, March 2008-February 2009

A study of dewatering of the fractured-bedrock aquifer in a localized area of east-central North Carolina was conducted from March 2008 through February 2009 to gain an understanding of why some privately owned wells and monitoring wells were intermittently dry. Although the study itself was localized in nature, the resulting water-resources data and information produced from the study will help enable resource managers to make sound water-supply and water-use decisions in similar crystalline-rock aquifer setting in parts of the Piedmont and Blue Ridge Physiographic Provinces. In June 2005, homeowners in a subdivision of approximately 11 homes on lots approximately 1 to 2 acres in size in an unincorporated area of Wake County, North Carolina, reported extremely low water pressure and temporarily dry wells during a brief period. This area of the State, which is in the Piedmont Physiographic Province, is undergoing rapid growth and development. Similar well conditions were reported again in July 2007. In an effort to evaluate aquifer conditions in the area of intermittent water loss, a study was begun in March 2008 to measure and monitor water levels and groundwater use. During the study period from March 2008 through February 2009, regular dewatering of the fractured-bedrock aquifer was documented with water levels in many wells ranging between 100 and 200 feet below land surface. Prior to this period, water levels from the 1980s through the late 1990s were reported to range from 15 to 50 feet below land surface. The study area includes three community wells and more than 30 private wells within a 2,000-foot radius of the dewatered private wells. Although groundwater levels were low, recovery was observed during periods of heavy rainfall, most likely a result of decreased withdrawals owing to less demand for irrigation purposes. Similar areal patterns of low groundwater levels were delineated during nine water-level measurement periods from March 2008 through February 2009. Correlation of groundwater-level distribution patterns with orientations of geologic structures obtained from surficial mapping, borehole geophysical measurements, and interpretation of fracture traces suggests two dominant trends striking north-south and N. 65 degrees W. A variation in overall response to groundwater withdrawals was noted in the continuous groundwater-level records for the monitored observation wells and dewatered private wells. The largest overall declines during the study period were observed in an observation well in which the water-level declined as much as 247 feet from mid-July through early August 2008, during a period of heavy usage. A private well had a water-level decline of about 94 feet during the same monitoring period. The large declines recorded in the observation well and the private well indicated a substantial temporary loss of storage in the fractured-bedrock aquifer near the wells, thus reducing the amount of water available to shallow wells in the area (those wells with total depths of about 300 feet), and resulting in temporary well failures until such time as the aquifer recovered.

North Carolina↗