Geology topics

Michelle Staudinger

Publications and source records attributed to Michelle Staudinger.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2024

A regional synthesis of climate data to inform the 2025 State Wildlife Action Plans in the Northeast U.S.

The State Wildlife Action Plans (SWAPs) are proactive planning documents, known as “comprehensive wildlife conservation strategies,” that assess the health of each state’s wildlife and habitats, identify current management and conservation challenges, and outline needed actions to conserve natural resources over the long term. SWAPs are revised every 10 years, with the last revision in 2015 and the next revision anticipated in 2025. State managers have a long history of managing for threats such as land-use change, pollution, and harvest. However, they have expressed a lack of expertise and capacity to keep pace with the rapid advances in climate science and noted that much of the information available is not scaled to meet their needs; thus making the prospect of integrating climate information into SWAPs a daunting task. (Johnson, 2018; Yocum et al., 2021; Blandford, 2022). This report, led by the Northeast Climate Adaptation Science Center (NE CASC), directly addresses SWAP climate science data needs through a Northeast regional synthesis across four key areas of climate science: 1) observed and projected climate changes, 2) species responses to climate change, 3) climate vulnerabilities and risks, and 4) scale-specific adaptation strategies and actions. In addition, case studies of climate adaptation efforts and climate threat to-action narratives provide illustrative examples of how climate change frameworks and tools are being operationalized in decision-making processes related to Regional Species of Greatest Conservation Need (RSGCN) and their habitats across the region. Lists of recent climate resources were also synthesized into extensive data tables to provide SWAP writing teams with a comprehensive platform of information to support content development (AFWA 2022).

Connecticut, Delaware, Maine, Maryland, Massachuse↗

USGS2024

Historical insights, current challenges: Tracking marine biodiversity in an urban harbor ecosystem in the face of climate change

The Boston Harbor Islands is the only coastal drumlin archipelago in the USA, featuring a distinctive and uncommon geological intertidal habitat known as mixed coarse substrate, which supports a range of coastal species and ecological processes. Recently designated as one of America’s 11 most endangered historic places due to climate change impacts, coastal adaptation and restoration efforts are crucial to their preservation. Such efforts can benefit from historic and current knowledge of endemic and emergent biodiversity. To investigate broad trends in coastal biodiversity, we compiled an inventory of marine coastal macroalgae, macroinvertebrates, fish, mammals, and shorebirds observed in the harbor since 1861. Records span 159 years, consisting of 451 unique taxa from 19 phyla. Analysis of average taxonomic distinctness (AvTD) revealed increases in diversity towards the end of the twentieth and early twenty-first century, likely associated with improved water quality (dissolved oxygen; AvTD > 85, p = 0.01) due to harbor restoration in the 1980s. Macroinvertebrates comprised 50% of the records, making this the most diverse taxonomic group in the time series. A significant increase of non-indigenous species, primarily macroinvertebrates and macroalgae, was observed over the last 20 years near human infrastructure and across multiple islands, a consequence of global change and characteristic of most urban harbors. The mixed coarse intertidal habitat, which makes up > 70% of Boston Harbor’s inner islands and supports high macroinvertebrate and macroalgal diversity (47% of species records), is not routinely monitored; our findings serve as a foundational resource for climate adaptation projects and decision-making.

Massachusetts↗

USGS2023

Ten best practices for effective phenological research

The number and diversity of phenological studies has increased rapidly in recent years. Innovative experiments, field studies, citizen science projects, and analyses of newly available historical data are contributing insights that advance our understanding of ecological and evolutionary responses to the environment, particularly climate change. However, many phenological data sets have peculiarities that are not immediately obvious and can lead to mistakes in analyses and interpretation of results. This paper aims to help researchers, especially those new to the field of phenology, understand challenges and practices that are crucial for effective studies. For example, researchers may fail to account for sampling biases in phenological data, struggle to choose or design a volunteer data collection strategy that adequately fits their project’s needs, or combine data sets in inappropriate ways. We describe ten best practices for designing studies of plant and animal phenology, evaluating data quality, and analyzing data. Practices include accounting for common biases in data, using effective citizen or community science methods, and employing appropriate data when investigating phenological mismatches. We present these best practices to help researchers entering the field take full advantage of the wealth of available data and approaches to advance our understanding of phenology and its implications for ecology.

International Journal of Biometeorology↗

USGS2023

Forage fish species prefer habitat within designated offshore wind energy areas on the US Northeast Shelf ecosystem

As the world develops sources of renewable energy, there is an intensifying interest in offshore wind energy production. The Northeast U.S. Continental Shelf (NES) ecosystem has favorable wind dynamics, with active development of wind energy. In this study, we present species distribution models that consider both occupancy and biomass responses for a broad spectrum of fish and macroinvertebrate taxa ( n = 177). Building upon prior analyses, habitat was differentiated into overall and core habitats based on statistical distributions of habitat scores. Overall habitat was used to show each species' regional distribution based on fishery-independent survey captures between 1976 and 2019, whereas core habitat represented where the focus of the species' abundance was located as a subset of overall habitat. Wind energy developments may modify the water column in ways that impact lower-trophic-level productivity; therefore, added attention was given to the response of forage species. Over 20% of species showed preferential use of putative and potential wind development areas, including a disproportionate number of forage taxa. Principal usage varied by season, with forage species like Atlantic Menhaden Brevoortia tyrannus and Atlantic Mackerel Scomber scombrus preferentially using the lease areas in spring and Round Herring Etrumeus teres and longfin inshore squid Doryteuthis pealeii using lease areas in autumn. For species with relatively low usage of the lease areas, there was a tendency for the usage related to overall habitat to be lower than usage for core habitat; in contrast, for species with high usage of the lease areas, that usage was higher for overall habitat than for core habitat. The area of habitat tended to have positive trends across species, with these positive trends being disproportionately higher among forage taxa. These results frame the importance of wind lease areas for species in the NES, particularly forage taxa that fulfill many important ecological functions.

Marine and Coastal Fisheries: Dynamics, Management↗

USGS2023

Vulnerability of estuarine systems in the contiguous United States to water quality change under future climate and land-use

Changes in climate and land-use and land-cover (LULC) are expected to influence surface water runoff and nutrient characteristics of estuarine watersheds, but the extent to which estuaries are vulnerable to altered nutrient loading under future conditions is poorly understood. The present work aims to address this gap through the development of a new vulnerability assessment framework that accounts for (a) estuarine exposure to projected changes in total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) loads as a function of LULC and climate change under several scenarios, (b) sensitivity, and (c) adaptive capacity. The framework was applied to 112 estuaries and their contributing watersheds across the contiguous U.S., specifically to look at regional variability in estuarine vulnerability to nutrient loading. Study findings revealed that the largest increases in estuarine nutrient loads are expected in the North and South Atlantic regions and eastern Gulf of Mexico, while the lowest increases are expected in the North and South Pacific regions and the western Gulf of Mexico. However, the North Atlantic and the South Pacific had the highest adaptive capacity, which could potentially counteract the effects of LULC and climate change on nutrient loads. Strong variation in predicted estuarine nutrient loads was observed as a function of climate model projections, while projected LULC changes were more consistently associated with elevated loads. Our findings illustrate the benefits of integrating natural and socio-ecological factors to identify opportunities to develop adaptation plans and policies to mitigate ecological degradation in vitally important estuaries.

Earth's Future↗

USGS2023

Final report: A novel monitoring framework to assess intertidal biodiversity in mixed coarse substrate habitats across the Boston Harbor Islands

The Boston Harbor Islands National Recreation Area (BOHA) is at high risk to the impacts of sea-level rise (SLR) and erosion from coastal storms. In June 2021, the National Trust for Historic Preservation listed the islands as one of America’s 11 Most Endangered Historic Places due to climate change. BOHA partners have been working to find climate adaptive solutions to protect and sustain critical ecological and cultural resources on the islands. A range of coastal adaptation efforts are currently under consideration including increased shoreline armoring and nature-based adaptation solutions. Any action taken in the coastal zone will require an assessment of environmental and ecological communities that could potentially be impacted by disturbance caused by restoration or adaptation projects. The primary goals of the initial phase of this project were to: 1) synthesize occurrence and distribution records of biodiversity living in and using mixed coarse substrate habitats of the intertidal zone of the Boston Harbor Islands; and 2) identify and compile potential methods to develop a standard and repeatable monitoring protocol to track changes (natural or anthropogenic) in intertidal biodiversity over time and across locations; and 3) conduct preliminary site scoping of target islands to identify locations for collecting new baseline data. A biodiversity inventory list was compiled, showing a total of 451 unique species were observed in BOHA between 1861-2020. Of this list, 55 species (invertebrates: 47; algae: 8) were considered nonindigenous species; a watchlist was also developed to help BOHA partners identify potential future invaders that could colonize and impact intertidal communities due to ongoing climate change or disturbance events. Native species observed in BOHA were evaluated using existing conservation frameworks and climate vulnerability information to prioritize species at greatest risk from anthropogenic and environmental stressors for future actions. Lastly, site scoping activities during 2021 identified three types of sites for future intertidal monitoring initiatives: (1) sites with relatively high biodiversity and foundational species, (2) erosional sites near cultural areas of importance to NPS, and (3) sites with generic (common across islands) biodiversity. Overall results are anticipated to help the NPS and BOHA partners identify a suite of species and sites for future monitoring given anticipated adaptation projects and ongoing changes due to SLR, coastal storms and other stressors.

Massachusetts↗

USGS2023

Variation in isotopic niche partitioning between adult roseate and common terns in the Northwest Atlantic

Co-occurring species with similar resource requirements often partition ecological niches at different spatial and temporal scales. In the Northwest Atlantic (NWA), federally endangered roseate terns Sterna dougallii nest almost exclusively in coastal island colonies alongside common terns S. hirundo . Roseate terns are prey specialists compared to common terns, which are opportunistic generalists; however, the 2 species forage on similar resources during the breeding season. The degree to which these species overlap in their adult foraging ecologies is not well understood. We compared the isotopic niches of nesting adult roseate and common terns by analyzing stable carbon (δ 13 C) and nitrogen (δ 15 N) isotopes in eggshell membrane tissues collected in 2018 and 2019 from 10 colonies that span their NWA breeding range. Our aim was to characterize interspecific patterns in δ 13 C and δ 15 N values, isotopic niche breadth, and isotope niche overlap. We additionally examined interannual and subregional differences between ‘cold-water’ colonies in the Gulf of Maine and ‘warm-water’ colonies in Southern New England and Long Island Sound. At the range-wide scale, there was a high degree of overlap in the overall isotopic niches of the 2 species; however, more variable patterns were observed at the colony scale, ranging from nearly complete overlap to complete separation. The isotopic niches of roseate terns were generally narrower than those of common terns, consistent with their respective specialist/generalist tendencies. While the influence of isotopic baselines limits our interpretation of interannual and subregional differences, isotopic niche breadths and overlap suggest consistency of relative foraging ecologies across these scales.

Connecticut, Maine, Massachusetts, New Hampshire, ↗

USGS2023

A pilot biodiversity inventory and monitoring protocol in support of coastal adaptation projects in tidal and nearshore subtidal habitats of Boston Harbor Islands

The Boston Harbor Islands National Recreation Area (BOHA) is at high risk to the impacts of sealevel rise (SLR) and erosion from coastal storms. In June 2021, the National Trust for Historic Preservation listed the islands as one of America’s 11 Most Endangered Historic Places due to climate change. BOHA partners have been working to find climate adaptive solutions to protect and sustain critical ecological and cultural resources on the islands. A range of coastal adaptation efforts are currently under consideration including increased shoreline armoring and nature-based adaptation solutions. Any action taken in the coastal zone will require an assessment of environmental and ecological communities that could potentially be impacted by disturbance caused by restoration or adaptation projects. The primary goals of the initial phase of this project were to: 1) synthesize occurrence and distribution records of biodiversity living in and using mixed coarse substrate habitats of the intertidal zone of the Boston Harbor Islands; and 2) identify and compile potential methods to develop a standard and repeatable monitoring protocol to track changes (natural or anthropogenic) in intertidal biodiversity over time and across locations; and 3) conduct preliminary site scoping of target islands to identify locations for collecting new baseline data. A biodiversity inventory list was compiled, showing a total of 451 unique species were observed in BOHA between 1861-2020. Of this list, 55 species (invertebrates: 47; algae: 8) were considered nonindigenous species; a watchlist was also developed to help BOHA partners identify potential future invaders that could colonize and impact intertidal communities due to ongoing climate change or disturbance events. Native species observed in BOHA were evaluated using existing conservation frameworks and climate vulnerability information to prioritize species at greatest risk from anthropogenic and environmental stressors for future actions. Lastly, site scoping activities during 2021 identified three types of sites for future intertidal monitoring initiatives: (1) sites with relatively high biodiversity and foundational species, (2) erosional sites near cultural areas of importance to NPS, and (3) sites with generic (common across islands) biodiversity. Overall results are anticipated to help the NPS and BOHA partners identify a suite of species and sites for future monitoring given anticipated adaptation projects and ongoing changes due to SLR, coastal storms and other stressors.

Massachusetts↗

USGS2022

Decadal-scale phenology and seasonal climate drivers of migratory baleen whales in a rapidly warming marine ecosystem

Species' response to rapid climate change can be measured through shifts in timing of recurring biological events, known as phenology. The Gulf of Maine is one of the most rapidly warming regions of the ocean, and thus an ideal system to study phenological and biological responses to climate change. A better understanding of climate-induced changes in phenology is needed to effectively and adaptively manage human-wildlife conflicts. Using data from a 20+ year marine mammal observation program, we tested the hypothesis that the phenology of large whale habitat use in Cape Cod Bay has changed and is related to regional-scale shifts in the thermal onset of spring. We used a multi-season occupancy model to measure phenological shifts and evaluate trends in the date of peak habitat use for North Atlantic right ( Eubalaena glacialis ), humpback ( Megaptera novaeangliae ), and fin ( Balaenoptera physalus ) whales. The date of peak habitat use shifted by +18.1 days (0.90 days/year) for right whales and +19.1 days (0.96 days/year) for humpback whales. We then evaluated interannual variability in peak habitat use relative to thermal spring transition dates (STD), and hypothesized that right whales, as planktivorous specialist feeders, would exhibit a stronger response to thermal phenology than fin and humpback whales, which are more generalist piscivorous feeders. There was a significant negative effect of western region STD on right whale habitat use, and a significant positive effect of eastern region STD on fin whale habitat use indicating differential responses to spatial seasonal conditions. Protections for threatened and endangered whales have been designed to align with expected phenology of habitat use. Our results show that whales are becoming mismatched with static seasonal management measures through shifts in their timing of habitat use, and they suggest that effective management strategies may need to alter protections as species adapt to climate change.

Massachusetts↗

USGS2022

The North American Freshwater Migratory Fish Database (NAFMFD): Characterizing the migratory life histories of freshwater fishes of Canada, the United States and Mexico

Aim Migratory freshwater fishes are those that must access discrete habitats to complete their life cycles. Freshwater fish migrations occur around the world and provide numerous ecosystem services for humans and natural systems; however, many migratory species are in decline globally. A limiting factor to successfully conserve freshwater migratory fishes is that the migratory life histories of many species are unknown or only partially described. To provide researchers with critical and comprehensive information to conserve migratory fishes, we developed the North American Freshwater Migratory Fish Database (NAFMFD). Location Canada, Mexico and the United States. Taxon Freshwater fish. Methods To develop this database, we assigned migratory status, pattern and behaviour to a comprehensive list of freshwater fish species found throughout North America. We assembled the database which included assignments (i.e. migratory status, pattern and behaviour) as well as the sources used to make the assignments. Researchers and managers from across North America reviewed the database for completeness and accuracy on the migratory life histories of fishes. Results The database synthesizes current knowledge of migratory status, pattern and behaviour of native and non-native freshwater fishes throughout North America, including 1250 species representing 79 families and 325 genera. Results showcase the diversity of migratory life histories of freshwater fishes on the continent, including that at least 25% of North American freshwater fishes are migratory, 23% are non-migratory and 44% have undetermined migratory status. Main conclusions NAFMFD improves the quality of migratory data accessible to researchers, which supports a more holistic understanding of the threats encountered by migratory fishes, including habitat fragmentation. The approach we used in developing NAFMFD can provide guidance for developing similar databases in other regions. Collectively, our work offers new insights into the range of freshwater fish migratory life histories, stimulating a need to better understand this diversity globally.

Journal of Biogeography↗

USGS2022

Phenological variation in spring migration timing of adult alewife (Alosa pseudoharengus) in coastal Massachusetts

The timing of biological events in plants and animals, such as migration and reproduction, is shifting due to climate change. Anadromous fishes are particularly susceptible to these shifts as they are subject to strong seasonal cycles when transitioning between marine and freshwater habitats to spawn. We used linear models to determine the extent of phenological shifts in adult Alewife Alosa pseudoharengus as they migrated from ocean to freshwater environments during spring to spawn at 12 sites along the northeastern USA. We also evaluated broadscale oceanic and atmospheric drivers that trigger their movements from offshore to inland habitats, including sea surface temperature, North Atlantic Oscillation index, and Gulf Stream index. Run timing metrics of initiation, median (an indicator of peak run timing), end, and duration were found to vary among sites. Although most sites showed negligible shifts towards earlier timing, statistically significant changes were detected in three systems. Overall, winter sea surface temperature, spring and fall transition dates, and annual run size were the strongest predictors of run initiation and median dates, while a combination of within-season and seasonal-lag effects influenced run end and duration timing. Disparate results observed across the 12 spawning runs suggest that regional environmental processes were not consistent drivers of phenology and local environmental and ecological conditions may be more important. Additional years of data to extend time series and monitoring of Alewife timing and movements in nearshore habitats may provide important information about staging behaviors just before adults transition between ocean and freshwater habitats.

Massachusetts↗

USGS2022

Interspecific and local variation in Tern chick diets across nesting colonies in the Gulf of Maine

The Gulf of Maine, USA is home to four colonial co-nesting tern species: Least Tern ( Sternula antillarum ), Common Tern ( Sterna hirundo ), Arctic Tern ( Sterna paradisaea ), and the federally endangered Roseate Tern ( Sterna dougallii ). Over three decades of visual observations of chick provisioning were compiled for a comparative dietary study in the region, including the first detailed descriptions of Least and Roseate Tern chick diets. Three prey groups comprised the majority of chick diets among tern species between 1986–2017: hake ( Urophycis spp. or Enchelyopus cimbrius ) 28–37% frequency of occurrence (FO), sand lance ( Ammodytes americanus or A. dubius ) 8–22% FO, and herring ( Clupea spp . or Alosa spp.) 3–30% FO. Dietary contributions varied across species and islands. At two inshore colonies, Common Tern diets contained higher amounts of sand lance (30–42% FO), while offshore islands contained lesser amounts (5–9% FO). Overall dietary diversity (H′) was similar between Common (H′ = 1.57) and Arctic Terns (H′ = 1.74) and notably lower in Roseate (H′ = 1.24) and Least Terns (H′ = 1.37), whose diets were primarily piscivorous. The degree of dietary plasticity and general feeding ecology provided by baseline dietary information can inform holistic assessments of risk to ongoing and future disturbances from fishing and climate change.

Maine↗

USGS2022

Pre-breeding foraging ecology of three tern species nesting in the Gulf of Maine

A variety of seabird species migrate annually from wintering grounds in the Southern Hemisphere to the Gulf of Maine, USA to breed and raise their young. Post-migration, adult seabirds depend on the spatio-temporal match of reliable food resources to replenish energy reserves before breeding. However, the conditions during this critical window of time are becoming increasingly uncertain given the magnitude and pace at which climate change is impacting the Gulf of Maine region. We investigated the pre-breeding foraging ecology of Arctic Terns ( Sterna paradisaea ), Common Terns ( S. hirundo ), and the federally endangered Roseate Tern ( S. dougallii ) by analyzing stable carbon (δ 13 C) and nitrogen (δ 15 N) isotopes in eggshell tissues collected from seven islands in the Gulf of Maine from 2016 to 2018. Results show at the interspecific level, adult foraging patterns are consistent with expectations based on chick diets. At interisland and interannual scales, variation in isotopic values and niche breadths suggest foraging habits are highly localized. Although uncertainty remains, interannual trends also suggest warmer ocean conditions are either affecting tern foraging behaviors and/or prey resource availability during the late spring and early summer. Overall, results provide new information on adult tern foraging ecology in an important breeding area experiencing rapid environmental change.

Maine↗

USGS2021

How does climate change affect emergent properties of aquatic ecosystems?

Emergent properties of ecosystems are community attributes, such as structure and function, that arise from connections and interactions (e.g., predator–prey, competition) among populations, species, or assemblages that, when viewed together, provide a holistic representation that is more than the sum of its individual parts. Climate change is altering emergent properties of aquatic ecosystems through component responses, a combination of shifts in species range, phenology, distribution, and productivity, which lead to novel ecosystems that have no historical analog. The reshuffling, restructuring, and rewiring of aquatic ecosystems due to climate impacts are of high concern for natural resource management and conservation as these changes can lead to species extinctions and reductions in ecosystem services. Overall, we found that substantial progress has been made to advance our understanding of how climate change is affecting emergent properties of aquatic ecosystems. However, responses are incredibly complex, and high uncertainty remains for how systems will reorganize and function over the coming decades. This cross‐system perspective summarizes the state of knowledge of climate‐driven emergent properties in aquatic habitats with case studies that highlight mechanisms of change, observed or anticipated outcomes, as well as insights into confounding non‐climate effects, research tools, and management approaches to advance the field.

Fisheries↗

USGS2021

Daily patterns of river herring (Alosa spp.) spawning migrations: Environmental drivers and variation among coastal streams in Massachusetts

The timing of life history events in many plants and animals depends on the seasonal fluctuations of specific environmental conditions. Climate change is altering environmental regimes and disrupting natural cycles and patterns across communities. Anadromous fishes that migrate between marine and freshwater habitats to spawn are particularly sensitive to shifting environmental conditions and thus are vulnerable to the effects of climate change. However, for many anadromous fish species the specific environmental mechanisms driving migration and spawning patterns are not well understood. In this study, we investigated the upstream spawning migrations of river herring Alosa spp. in 12 coastal Massachusetts streams. By analyzing long-term data sets (8–28 years) of daily fish counts, we determined the local influence of environmental factors on daily migration patterns and compared seasonal run dynamics and environmental regimes among streams. Our results suggest that water temperature was the most consistent predictor of both daily river herring presence–absence and abundance during migration. We found inconsistent effects of streamflow and lunar phase, likely due to the anthropogenic manipulation of flow and connectivity in different systems. Geographic patterns in run dynamics and thermal regimes suggest that the more northerly runs in this region are relatively vulnerable to climate change due to migration occurring later in the spring season, at warmer water temperatures that approach thermal maxima, and during a narrower temporal window compared to southern runs. The phenology of river herring and their reliance on seasonal temperature patterns indicate that populations of these species may benefit from management practices that reduce within-stream anthropogenic water temperature manipulations and maintain coolwater thermal refugia.

Massachusetts↗

USGS2021

Assessing the impact of an online climate science community: The Early Career Climate Forum

Online science communities can serve as powerful platforms for advancing scientific knowledge, capacity, and outreach by increasing collaboration and information sharing among geographically distant peers, practitioners, and the public. Here, we examine the value and role of the Early Career Climate Forum (ECCF), a climate-focused online science community that is based in the United States and is dedicated to training and providing support to the next generation of climate scientists. In a survey of community users and contributors, we find that the ECCF played a unique role in providing users access to career resources as well as climate-related research and insights. Respondents also indicated that the ECCF provides them with a strong sense of community and a sense of hope for the future of climate science research. These findings highlight the importance of online science communities in shaping and supporting the next generation of scientists and practitioners working at the science–management interface on climate change issues.

Weather, Climate and Society↗

USGS2021

Climate impacts on the Gulf of Maine ecosystem: A review of observed and expected changes in 2050 from rising temperatures

The Gulf of Maine has recently experienced its warmest 5-year period (2015–2020) in the instrumental record. This warming was associated with a decline in the signature subarctic zooplankton species, Calanus finmarchicus . The temperature changes have also led to impacts on commercial species such as Atlantic cod ( Gadus morhua ) and American lobster ( Homarus americanus ) and protected species including Atlantic puffins ( Fratercula arctica ) and northern right whales ( Eubalaena glacialis ). The recent period also saw a decline in Atlantic herring ( Clupea harengus ) recruitment and an increase in novel harmful algal species, although these have not been attributed to the recent warming. Here, we use an ensemble of numerical ocean models to characterize expected ocean conditions in the middle of this century. Under the high CO 2 emissions scenario (RCP8.5), the average temperature in the Gulf of Maine is expected to increase 1.1°C to 2.4°C relative to the 1976–2005 average. Surface salinity is expected to decrease, leading to enhanced water column stratification. These physical changes are likely to lead to additional declines in subarctic species including C. finmarchicus , American lobster, and Atlantic cod and an increase in temperate species. The ecosystem changes have already impacted human communities through altered delivery of ecosystem services derived from the marine environment. Continued warming is expected to lead to a loss of heritage, changes in culture, and the necessity for adaptation.

Maine, Massachusetts, New Brunswick, New Hampshire↗

USGS2020

How and why is the timing and occurrence of seasonal migrants in the Gulf of Maine changing due to climate?

Plants and animals undergo certain recurring life-cycle events, such as migrations between summer and winter habitats or the annual blooming of plants. Known as phenology, the timing of these events is very sensitive to changes in climate (and changes in one species’ phenology can impact entire food webs and ecosystems). Shifts in phenology have been described as a “fingerprint” of the temporal and spatial responses of wildlife to climate change impacts. Thus, phenology provides one of the strongest indicators of the adaptive capacity of organisms (or the ability of organisms to cope with future environmental conditions). In this study, researchers are exploring how the timing and occurrence of a number of highly migratory marine animals is changing due to a series of climatic and ecological shifts. First, using existing long-term historical data series, they will determine the direction and magnitude of how migration, abundance, or other phenological factors have changed for marine mammals, sea turtles, and fishes that migrate into the Gulf of Maine on a seasonal basis. Because marine animals are inherently difficult to detect, the team will apply dynamic occupancy models to evaluate seasonal migration patterns and habitat use across multiple habitats in the Gulf of Maine region. The project team will also synthesize regional information on a key, ecologically-important prey fish, sandlance, whose timing and abundance is a strong predictor of the occurrence and behavior of predator species targeted in this study as well as a range of other regional fish and wildlife of conservation and management concern. Results from this component of the project will identify coastal fish and wildlife species that are relatively more or less able to adapt and thus potentially vulnerable to climate change; determine the likely primary drivers of those changes; and identify data gaps and future monitoring needs. Ultimately, this information will be available and useful for regional coastal management and adaptation decisions that will allow managers to effectively plan for the future. In a second component of the project, researchers will focus specifically on changes in migration patterns of the endangered North Atlantic right whale. While shifts in the distribution and time of recurring life events are adaptive responses that may help species cope with climate impacts, they can also lead to changes in how species interact with humans. The North Atlantic right whale is one of the most endangered whale species on the planet. In the North Atlantic Ocean, ship strikes and entanglements with commercial fishing gear represent fatal threats to right whales. Recent reports suggest that North Atlantic right whale migration patterns have changed. Many researchers posit that shifts in migration are responsible for recent increases in the overlap between right whales and human activities, especially fishing. To help understand how changes in right whale movements and behaviors may overlap with ship traffic, and thus put the animals at risk of encountering vessels, we will combine right whale habitat models with ship traffic maps. The end result will be a set of maps identifying risk levels.

Gulf of Maine↗