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Michelle A. Stern

Publications and source records attributed to Michelle A. Stern.

18 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2026

The flip side of destructive wildfires: A water supply buffer to climate change

Wet to dry climate extremes in California have directly or indirectly impacted droughts, wildfires, and floods, resulting in costly damage. Reservoirs in California were built to store snowpack into the summer and provide multiple benefits in the state: they offer municipal and agricultural water resources during the dry season and prevent flooding downstream. The upper Feather River watershed, which drains 9300 square kilometers (km 2 ) into Lake Oroville, provides water to over 27 million people and 3000 km 2 of farmland. The North Complex Fire in 2020 and the Dixie and Sugar Fires in 2021 burned over 50% of the watershed, and their long-term impact on the upper Feather River water supply was previously unknown. This study quantified post-wildfire (postfire) changes in plant water use, soil moisture, and streamflow due to changes in vegetation using a physically based water balance model. Long-term trends revealed decreases in annual precipitation and mid- to high-elevation snowpack in this watershed from 1981 to 2020. Due to changes in vegetation, annual postfire streamflow at Feather River at Oroville increased by 22%, 32%, and 16% while summer baseflows increased by 5%, 12%, and 2% in water years (WYs) 2022 through 2024, respectively. Larger increases in streamflow occurred during WY 2023, an extremely wet year relative to the other years, highlighting the challenges in quantifying and managing hydrologic systems with naturally high interannual variability. Seasonal soil moisture increased by up to 34% depending on the location, predominantly in fall and summer postfire. Despite observed historical decreases in precipitation and snowpack, changes in vegetation due to wildfires or other disturbances may increase water availability, and continued management of mixed-conifer forests (i.e. thinning and controlled burns) may help offset future reduced precipitation and snowpack and therefore increase water supply resilience.

Callfiornia↗
USGS2026

Widespread occurrence of Magnéli phases in wildland-urban interface fire ashes

The increasing activity of wildland–urban interface (WUI) fires has raised concerns regarding the potential environmental and human health impacts of residual ash remaining after burning. In this study, we investigated the concentration and speciation of titanium in WUI fire ash. Total titanium concentrations in WUI fire ash ranged from 0.53 to 80 g kg –1 . Synchrotron-based macro- and microscale X-ray absorption near-edge structure (XANES and μXANES, respectively) spectroscopy were used to quantify the relative abundance of major Ti phases in the fire ash, and the results were corroborated by high resolution-transmission electron microscopy (HR-TEM) measurements. Rutile (α-TiO 2 ), anatase (β-TiO 2 ), ilmenite (FeTiO 3 ), and titanium(III) oxide (Ti 2 O 3 ) were detected in all 20 ashes investigated by XANES and accounted for 0.26–0.83, 0.19–0.83, 0.33, and 0.17–0.72 of the spectral weight, respectively. Deeper analysis by μXANES of one sample demonstrated that Ti-bearing particles occurred as a mixture of rutile (α-TiO 2 ), anatase (β-TiO 2 ), ilmenite (FeTiO 3 ), and titanium(III) oxide Ti 2 O 3, with the absence of a pure Ti 2 O 3 phase. The presence of Ti 2 O 3 in the WUI fire ash is ascribed to the reduction of rutile and anatase to Magnéli titania (Ti n O 2 n– 1 , n = 4–9), which is estimated to be the dominant phase of titanium in the 20 WUI fire ashes investigated by XANES. The occurrence of Magnéli titania was corroborated by HR-TEM. Our findings demonstrate the impact of WUI fires on titanium speciation; fires convert titanium dioxides (e.g., rutile and anatase) to reduced titanium phases (e.g., Magnéli titania). Based on HR-TEM analyses, most of the titanium-bearing particles were less than 500 nm in size. Magnéli particles have been shown to be more toxic than rutile and anatase and have been linked to reduced lung function. Therefore, this study provides critical insights into the pollution characteristics and potential health risks of WUI fire ashes and associated particles, which are currently poorly understood.

California↗
USGS2026

Assessing natural recharge in Indian Wells Valley, California: A Basin Characterization Model case study

The communities in Indian Wells Valley (IWV), in the northern Mojave Desert in California, rely on groundwater for domestic and agricultural use. Mountain front recharge from the surrounding Sierra Nevada is the main source of natural recharge to the valley. Increased urbanization, agricultural development, and groundwater pumping during recent decades put IWV in a state of critical overdraft. The U.S. Geological Survey Basin Characterization Model, version 8 (BCMv8) was used to evaluate historical and future climate and hydrologic conditions in IWV. The BCMv8 estimated natural recharge in IWV at 10.7 million cubic meters (Mm 3 ) per year for the period from 1981 to 2010. Future patterns of water balance variables using three future climate scenarios, hot-wet, hot-dry, and warm-moderately wet, were calculated for mid-century (2040–69) and end-of-century (2070–99) periods. Results for both wet models projected an increase in recharge in both periods, whereas the hot-dry model projected a decrease in recharge in both periods. All models reported a large increase in seasonal variability in recharge, indicating more future availability and frequent occurrences of drought years. All climate scenarios projected an increase in climatic water deficit in both periods. These increases in irrigation demand and variability of water supply highlight the importance of strategic management planning for the sustainability of water resources in IWV.

California↗
USGS2024

Fine-scale surficial soil moisture mapping using UAS-based L-band remote sensing in a mixed oak-grassland landscape

Soil moisture maps provide quantitative information that, along with climate and energy balance, is critical to integrate with hydrologic processes for characterizing landscape conditions. However, soil moisture maps are difficult to produce for natural landscapes because of vegetation cover and complex topography. Satellite-based L-band microwave sensors are commonly used to develop spatial soil moisture data products, but most existing L-band satellites provide only coarse scale (one to tens of kilometers grid size), information that is unsuitable for measuring soil moisture variation at hillslope or watershed-scales. L-band sensors are typically deployed on satellite platforms and aircraft but have been too large to deploy on small uncrewed aircraft systems (UAS). There is a need for greater spatial resolution and development of effective measures of soil moisture across a variety of natural vegetation types. To address these challenges, a novel UAS-based L-band radiometer system was evaluated that has recently been tested in agricultural settings. In this study, L-band UAS was used to map soil moisture at 3–50-m (m) resolution in a 13 square kilometer (km 2 ) mixed grassland-forested landscape in Sonoma County, California. The results represent the first application of this technology in a natural landscape with complex topography and vegetation. The L-band inversion of the radiative transfer model produced soil moisture maps with an average unbiased root mean squared error (ubRMSE) of 0.07 m 3 /m 3 and a bias of 0.02 m 3 /m 3 . Improved fine-scale soil moisture maps developed using UAS-based systems may be used to help inform wildfire risk, improve hydrologic models, streamflow forecasting, and early detection of landslides.

California↗
USGS2022

Discovery and potential ramifications of reduced iron-bearing nanoparticles — Magnetite, wüstite, and zero-valent iron — In wildland–urban interface fire ashes

The increase in fires at the wildland–urban interface has raised concerns about the potential environmental impact of ash remaining after burning. Here, we examined the concentrations and speciation of iron-bearing nanoparticles in wildland–urban interface ash. Total iron concentrations in ash varied between 4 and 66 mg g −1 . Synchrotron X-ray absorption near-edge structure (XANES) spectroscopy of bulk ash samples was used to quantify the relative abundance of major Fe phases, which were corroborated by transmission electron microscopy measurements. Maghemite (γ-(Fe 3+ ) 2 O 3 ) and magnetite (γ-Fe 2+ (Fe 3+ ) 2 O 4 ) were detected in most ashes and accounted for 0–90 and 0–81% of the spectral weight, respectively. Ferrihydrite (amorphous Fe( III )–hydroxide, (Fe 3+ ) 5 HO 8 ·4H 2 O), goethite (α-Fe 3+ OOH), and hematite (α-Fe 3+ 2 O 3 ) were identified less frequently in ashes than maghemite and magnetite and accounted for 0–65, 0–54, and 0–50% of spectral weight, respectively. Other iron phases identified in ashes include wüstite (Fe 2+ O), zerovalent iron, FeS, FeCl 2 , FeCl 3 , FeSO 4 , Fe 2 (SO 4 ) 3 , and Fe(NO 3 ) 3 . Our findings demonstrate the impact of fires at the wildland–urban interface on iron speciation; that is, fires can convert iron oxides ( e.g. , maghemite, hematite, and goethite) to reduced iron phases such as magnetite, wüstite, and zerovalent iron. Magnetite concentrations ( e.g. , up to 25 mg g −1 ) decreased from black to gray to white ashes. Based on transmission electron microscopy (TEM) analyses, most of the magnetite nanoparticles were less than 500 nm in size, although larger particles were identified. Magnetite nanoparticles have been linked to neurodegenerative diseases as well as climate change. This study provides important information for understanding the potential environmental impacts of fires at the wildland–urban interface, which are currently poorly understood.

Environmental Science Nano↗
USGS2022

Selecting the optimal fine-scale historical climate data for assessing current and future hydrological conditions

High-resolution historical climate grids are readily available and frequently used as inputs for a wide range of regional management and risk assessments, including water supply, ecological processes, and as baseline for climate change impact studies that compare them to future projected conditions. Because historical gridded climates are produced using various methods, their portrayal of landscape conditions differ, which becomes a source of uncertainty when they are applied to subsequent analyses. Here we tested the range of values from five gridded climate datasets. We compared their values to observations from 1231 weather stations, first using each dataset’s native scale, and then after each was rescaled to 270-m resolution. We inputted the downscaled grids to a mechanistic hydrology model and assessed the spatial results of six hydrological variables across California, in 10 ecoregions and 11 large watersheds in the Sierra Nevada. PRISM was most accurate for precipitation, ClimateNA for maximum temperature, and TopoWx for minimum temperature. The single most accurate dataset overall was PRISM due to the best performance for precipitation and low air temperature errors. Hydrological differences ranged up to 70% of the average monthly streamflow with an average of 35% disagreement for all months derived from different historical climate maps. Large differences in minimum air temperature data produced differences in modeled actual evapotranspiration, snowpack, and streamflow. Areas with the highest variability in climate data, including the Sierra Nevada and Klamath Mountains ecoregions, also had the largest spread for snow water equivalent, recharge, and runoff.

Journal of Hydrometeorology↗
USGS2021

A basin-scale approach to estimating recharge in the desert: Anza-Cahuilla groundwater basin, CA

The Anza-Cahuilla groundwater basin located mainly in the semi-arid headwaters of the Santa Margarita River watershed in southern California is the principle source of groundwater for a rural disadvantaged community and two Native American Tribes, the Ramona Band of Cahuilla and the Cahuilla. Groundwater in the study area is derived entirely from precipitation and managing groundwater sustainably requires an accurate assessment of the water balance components, yet long-term estimates do not exist. Demand for groundwater in the region has increased and groundwater quality has decreased due to population growth and increased irrigated cropland. To characterize monthly long-term natural recharge and runoff estimates, a physically-based water balance model (Basin Characterization Model) was locally calibrated and validated using nearby streamgages and published estimates of climatic and hydrologic variables. The average modeled annual recharge and runoff from 1981 to 2010 was 5.4 × 10 6 and 1.2 × 10 7 m 3 , respectively, for the study area. Recharge and runoff do not reliably occur in large amounts every year and recharge rarely occurs in the groundwater basin footprint. These long-term estimates can be used by water managers, stakeholders, and Native American Tribes to develop plans for sustainable management of future water resources, and as inputs to a three-dimensional groundwater model.

California↗
USGS2021

Amplified impact of climate change on fine-sediment delivery to a subsiding coast, Humboldt Bay, California

In Humboldt Bay, tectonic subsidence exacerbates sea-level rise (SLR). To build surface elevations and to keep pace with SLR, the sediment demand created by subsidence and SLR must be balanced by an adequate sediment supply. This study used an ensemble of plausible future scenarios to predict potential climate change impacts on suspended-sediment discharge (Q ss ) from fluvial sources. Streamflow was simulated using a deterministic water-balance model, and Q ss was computed using statistical sediment-transport models. Changes relative to a baseline period (1981–2010) were used to assess climate impacts. For local basins that discharge directly to the bay, the ensemble means projected increases in Q ss of 27% for the mid-century (2040–2069) and 58% for the end-of-century (2070–2099). For the Eel River, a regional sediment source that discharges sediment-laden plumes to the coastal margin, the ensemble means projected increases in Q ss of 53% for the mid-century and 99% for the end-of-century. Climate projections of increased precipitation and streamflow produced amplified increases in the regional sediment supply that may partially or wholly mitigate sediment demand caused by the combined effects of subsidence and SLR. This finding has important implications for coastal resiliency. Coastal regions with an increasing sediment supply may be more resilient to SLR. In a broader context, an increasing sediment supply from fluvial sources has global relevance for communities threatened by SLR that are increasingly building resiliency to SLR using sediment-based solutions that include regional sediment management, beneficial reuse strategies, and marsh restoration.

California↗
USGS2021

The basin characterization model—A regional water balance software package

This report documents the computer software package, Basin Characterization Model, version 8 (BCMv8)—a monthly, gridded, regional water-balance model—and provides detailed operational instructions and example applications. After several years of many applications and uses of a previous version, CA-BCM, published in 2014, the BCMv8 was refined to improve the accuracy of the water-balance components, particularly the recharge estimate, which is the most difficult to accurately assess. The improvement of the various water-balance components targeted the actual evapotranspiration component, which, in turn, reduced the uncertainty of the recharge estimate. The improvement of this component was enabled by the availability of a national, gridded actual-evapotranspiration product from the U.S. Geological Survey that was unique in its scope to combine remotely sensed spatial variability and ground-based long-term water-balance constraints. This dataset provided the ability to assess monthly actual evapotranspiration for 62 vegetation types and to perform regional calibration in watersheds throughout California with the objective of closing the water balance using improved estimates for each component. The refinements, including vegetation-specific evapotranspiration, enabled the development of applications that could explore various aspects of landscape disturbance, such as wildfire, forest management, or urbanization. The improvements to BCMv8 also provided the ability to assess long-term sustainability of water resources under a variety of management applications or future climate projections.

California↗
USGS2020

The future of sediment transport and streamflow under a changing climate and the implications for long-term resilience of the San Francisco Bay-Delta

Sedimentation and turbidity have effects on habitat suitability in the San Francisco Bay‐Delta (Bay‐Delta), concerning key species in the bay as well as the ability of the delta marshes to keep pace with sea level rise. A daily rainfall runoff and transport model of the Sacramento River Basin of northern California was developed to simulate streamflow and suspended sediment transport to the Bay‐Delta for the next century (water years, WY2010–2099). The model was calibrated to historical streamflow and sediment data and applied using 10 Global Climate Models with two representative concentration pathways (RCP) each for WY1980–2099 from the IPCC 5th Assessment Report. Results indicate average increases in peak streamflow of +58% and +66% for the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 ensembles, respectively, by mid‐century and +62 and +96% by end‐of‐century. Sediment loads increased by +39% and +69% by end‐of‐century. Suspended sediment concentrations (SSC) increased on average by +4.6% and +6.7% for RCP 4.5 and 8.5, respectively, by end‐of‐century. Individual scenario results varied, and statistically significant increasing trends of sediment loads to the Bay‐Delta were found for the RCP 4.5 and 8.5 ensembles and five individual scenarios. Increased suspended sediment loads may have negative effects such as contaminant transport but also have positive effects that help protect against sea level rise, increase turbidity and fish habitat, and sustain wetland habitats in the Bay‐Delta.

California↗
USGS2020

PFHydro: A new watershed-scale model for post-fire runoff simulation

Runoff increases after wildfires that burn vegetation and create a condition of soil-water repellence (SWR). A new post-fire watershed hydrological model, PFHydro, was created to explicitly simulate vegetation interception and SWR effects for four burn severity categories: high, medium, low severity and unburned. The model was applied to simulate post-fire runoff from the Upper Cache Creek Watershed in California, USA. Nash–Sutcliffe modeling efficiency (NSE) was used to assess model performance. The NSE was 0.80 and 0.88 for pre-fire water years (WY) 2000 and 2015, respectively. NSE was 0.88 and 0.93 for WYs 2016 (first year post-fire) and 2017 respectively. The simulated percentage of surface runoff in total runoff of WY 2016 was about six times that of pre-fire WY 2000 and three times that of WY 2015. The modeling results suggest that SWR is an important factor for post-fire runoff generation. The model was successful at simulating SWR behavior.

California↗
USGS2019

A multi-scale soil moisture monitoring strategy for California: Design and validation

A multi‐scale soil moisture monitoring strategy for California was designed to inform water resource management. The proposed workflow classifies soil moisture response units (SMRUs) using publicly available datasets that represent soil, vegetation, climate, and hydrology variables, which control soil water storage. The SMRUs were classified, using principal component analysis and unsupervised K‐means clustering within a geographic information system, and validated, using summary statistics derived from measured soil moisture time series. Validation stations, located in the Sierra Nevada, include transect of sites that cross the rain‐to‐snow transition and a cluster of sites located at similar elevations in a snow‐dominated watershed. The SMRUs capture unique responses to varying climate conditions characterized by statistical measures of central tendency, dispersion, and extremes. A topographic position index and landform classification is the final step in the workflow to guide the optimal placement of soil moisture sensors at the local‐scale. The proposed workflow is highly flexible and can be implemented over a range of spatial scales and input datasets can be customized. Our approach captures a range of soil moisture responses to climate across California and can be used to design and optimize soil moisture monitoring strategies to support runoff forecasts for water supply management or to assess landscape conditions for forest and rangeland management.

California↗
USGS2019

Characterization of hydrology and sediment transport following drought and wildfire in Cache Creek, California

The worst drought in California in over 1,200 years occurred between 2012-2017 (Griffin, 2014), depleting surface water and groundwater supply and drying out the soils past wilting point. In the summer of 2015, the Jerusalem and Rocky fires burned roughly 40,000 acres within the Cache Creek watershed. To fully characterize the post-fire effects in the Cache Creek watershed, an hourly model of streamflow and sediment transport was developed using the Hydrological Simulation Program – FORTRAN (HSPF). This model requires air temperature, precipitation, and potential evapotranspiration as climate inputs. Hourly station data are sparse in the area and may not capture the variability of elevation and local climatology patterns within the watershed. A technique used previously to spatially-interpolate daily-climate station data has improved the characterization of local and regional climate patterns on a daily scale in areas with sparse data (Flint et al., 2014). This technique was extended to hourly observed data to produce spatially-varying climate inputs for the Cache Creek hydrologic model to run as a continuous multi-year simulation with hourly time steps. Monthly PRISM grids were used in a two-step scaling method with climate Gradient and Inverse Distance Squared (GIDS) maps (Nalder and Wein, 1998) to develop daily grids, then the daily grids were used to scale hourly climate GIDS maps. This method captures the temporal variability at each climate station yet preserves the regional monthly spatial structure of the PRISM data. Hydrologic calibration used data from water year 2015, and validation used the same parameters for water year 2016. The model was run through water year 2017 to characterize the effects of wildfire on hydrology and sediment transport. For final simulations, the model was run at an hourly time step from June 2014 through September 2017 to ensure a model initiation period of 4 months prior to the target simulation period used for analysis. Sediment parameters were initially set using the existing Sacramento River Basin model for this sub-watershed area and then iteratively adjusted in the calibration process. To simulate a fire across the landscape, sediment parameters for water years 2016-17 were further modified for burned sub-basins to represent post-fire vegetation and soils in 2016, then partial recovery in 2017. Results were inconclusive for drought and wildfire effects on runoff. Modeled peak flows generally underpredicted observed peak flows; however, the modeled storm volumes were only slightly under or over the observed storm volumes. Sediment transport was sensitive to the watershed disturbances and R^2 values for daily mean suspended concentrations (SSC) and sediment discharge were 0.70 and 0.75, respectively. Simulated hourly values correlated less strongly with observed instantaneous SSC and sediment discharge (R^2 values of 0.56 and 0.46, respectively).

California↗
USGS2018

Soil moisture datasets at five sites in the central Sierra Nevada and northern Coast Ranges, California

In situ soil moisture datasets are important inputs used to calibrate and validate watershed, regional, or statewide modeled and satellite-based soil moisture estimates. The soil moisture dataset presented in this report includes hourly time series of the following: soil temperature, volumetric water content, water potential, and total soil water content. Data were collected by the U.S. Geological Survey at five locations in California: three sites in the central Sierra Nevada and two sites in the northern Coast Ranges. This report provides a description of each of the study areas, procedures and equipment used, processing steps, and time series data from each site in the form of comma-separated values (.csv) tables.

California↗
USGS2018

Increasing soil organic carbon to mitigate greenhouse gases and increase climate resiliency for California

Rising air temperatures are projected to continue to drive up urban, agricultural, and rangeland water use, straining both surface and groundwater resources. Scientific studies have shown that managing farms, ranches, and public lands to increase soil carbon can increase soil waterholding capacity and increase hydrologic benefits such as increased baseflows and aquifer recharge, reduced flooding and erosion, and reduced climate-related water deficits. Coincident improvements in forage and crop yields are also indicated, while simultaneously sequestering carbon, reducing atmospheric greenhouse gases and mitigating climate change. This study was developed to consider the multiple benefits of increasing the organic matter content of soils across California’s working lands. Study results indicate that a one-time ¼” application of compost to rangelands can lead to carbon sequestration rates in soils that are maximized after approximately 15 years, and more than offset greenhouse gas emissions stimulated by the compost addition for at least five decades longer. Modeled increases in total soil organic matter of 3% enhanced hydrologic benefits across 97% of working lands, and reduced climate change impacts. Economic valuation indicated all benefits increasing over time, demonstrating a large potential for the California carbon market to support incentives in regionalizing the impacts in the coming decades. Socioeconomic and related land use pressures pose barriers to implementing management practices to increase soil organic matter by driving conversion of rangeland to urban or to more greenhouse-gas emission intensive agriculture. Results can be effectively used with land use change scenarios to identify where on California’s working lands hydrologic benefits of soil organic matter enhancement coincide with development risk, highlighting counties in California in which there may be resilience to climate change when strategic soil management and land conservation are combined.

California↗
USGS2017

Geothermal implications of a refined composition-age geologic map for the volcanic terrains of southeast Oregon, northeast California, and southwest Idaho, USA

Sufficient temperatures to generate steam likely exist under most of the dominantly volcanic terrains of southeast Oregon, northeast California, and southeast Idaho, USA, but finding sufficient permeability to allow efficient advective heat exchange is an outstanding challenge. A new thematic interpretation of existing state-level geologic maps provides an updated and refined distribution of the composition and age of geologic units for the purposes of assessing the implications for measurement and development of geothermal resources. This interpretation has been developed to better understand geothermal and hydrologic resources of the region. Comparison of the new geologic categories with available hydrologic data shows that younger volcanogenic terrains tend to have higher primary permeability than older terrains. Decrease in primary permeability with age is attributable to weathering and hydrothermal alteration of volcanogenic deposits to pore-filling clays and deposition of secondary deposits (e.g., zeolites). Spring density as a function of geology and precipitation can be used to infer groundwater flow path length within the upper aquifers. Beneath the upper aquifers, we postulate that, due to accelerated hydrothermal alteration at temperatures ~>30 °C, primary permeability at depths of geothermal interest will be limited, and that secondary permeability is a more viable target for hydrothermal fluid withdrawal. Because open fractures resulting from tensile stresses will affect all geologic layers, regions with a significant amount of groundwater flow through shallow, structurally controlled secondary permeability may overlay zones of deep secondary permeability. Regardless of whether the shallow permeability is connected with the deep permeability, shallow groundwater flow can mask the presence of deep hydrothermal flow, resulting in blind geothermal systems. Ideally, hydraulic connectivity between shallow and deep secondary permeability is limited, so that shallow groundwater does not cool potential geothermal reservoirs.

Conference Paper↗
USGS2016

Characterizing changes in streamflow and sediment supply in the Sacramento River Basin, California, using hydrological simulation program—FORTRAN (HSPF)

A daily watershed model of the Sacramento River Basin of northern California was developed to simulate streamflow and suspended sediment transport to the San Francisco Bay-Delta. To compensate for sparse data, a unique combination of model inputs was developed, including meteorological variables, potential evapotranspiration, and parameters defining hydraulic geometry. A slight decreasing trend of sediment loads and concentrations was statistically significant in the lowest 50% of flows, supporting the observed historical sediment decline. Historical changes in climate, including seasonality and decline of snowpack, contribute to changes in streamflow, and are a significant component describing the mechanisms responsible for the decline in sediment. Several wet and dry hypothetical climate change scenarios with temperature changes of 1.5 °C and 4.5 °C were applied to the base historical conditions to assess the model sensitivity of streamflow and sediment to changes in climate. Of the scenarios evaluated, sediment discharge for the Sacramento River Basin increased the most with increased storm magnitude and frequency and decreased the most with increases in air temperature, regardless of changes in precipitation. The model will be used to develop projections of potential hydrologic and sediment trends to the Bay-Delta in response to potential future climate scenarios, which will help assess the hydrological and ecological health of the Bay-Delta into the next century.

California↗