Geology topics

Michael W. Hamburger

Publications and source records attributed to Michael W. Hamburger.

6 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2016

USGS approach to real-time estimation of earthquake-triggered ground failure - Results of 2015 workshop

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards and Landslide Hazards Programs are developing plans to add quantitative hazard assessments of earthquake-triggered landsliding and liquefaction to existing real-time earthquake products (ShakeMap, ShakeCast, PAGER) using open and readily available methodologies and products. To date, prototype global statistical models have been developed and are being refined, improved, and tested. These models are a good foundation, but much work remains to achieve robust and defensible models that meet the needs of end users. In order to establish an implementation plan and identify research priorities, the USGS convened a workshop in Golden, Colorado, in October 2015. This document summarizes current (as of early 2016) capabilities, research and operational priorities, and plans for further studies that were established at this workshop. Specific priorities established during the meeting include (1) developing a suite of alternative models; (2) making use of higher resolution and higher quality data where possible; (3) incorporating newer global and regional datasets and inventories; (4) reducing barriers to accessing inventory datasets; (5) developing methods for using inconsistent or incomplete datasets in aggregate; (6) developing standardized model testing and evaluation methods; (7) improving ShakeMap shaking estimates, particularly as relevant to ground failure, such as including topographic amplification and accounting for spatial variability; and (8) developing vulnerability functions for loss estimates.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2014

Development of a globally applicable model for near real-time prediction of seismically induced landslides

Substantial effort has been invested to understand where seismically induced landslides may occur in the future, as they are a costly and frequently fatal threat in mountainous regions. The goal of this work is to develop a statistical model for estimating the spatial distribution of landslides in near real-time around the globe for use in conjunction with the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Prompt Assessment of Global Earthquakes for Response ( PAGER ) system. This model uses standardized outputs of ground shaking from the USGS ShakeMap Atlas 2.0 to develop an empirical landslide probability model, combining shaking estimates with broadly available landslide susceptibility proxies, i.e., topographic slope, surface geology, and climate parameters. We focus on four earthquakes for which digitally mapped landslide inventories and well-constrained ShakeMaps are available. The resulting database is used to build a predictive model of the probability of landslide occurrence. The landslide database includes the Guatemala (1976), Northridge (1994), Chi-Chi (1999), and Wenchuan (2008) earthquakes. Performance of the regression model is assessed using statistical goodness-of-fit metrics and a qualitative review to determine which combination of the proxies provides both the optimum prediction of landslide-affected areas and minimizes the false alarms in non-landslide zones. Combined with near real-time ShakeMaps , these models can be used to make generalized predictions of whether or not landslides are likely to occur (and if so, where) for earthquakes around the globe, and eventually to inform loss estimates within the framework of the PAGER system.

Engineering Geology↗

USGS2014

Advancing geodesy in the U.S. Midcontinent: workshop report

The workshop on “Advancing Geodesy in the U.S. Midcontinent” was held from October 31 to November 1, 2012, at Northwestern University in Evanston, Illinois. The workshop included 28 participants from academia, government, and private-sector organizations that are involved in research on geodesy and earthquake hazards in the seismically active areas of the U.S. midcontinent (the region of relatively undeformed crust roughly between the Great Plains and Appalachian Mountains). The workshop was intended to provide guidance to the U.S. Geological Survey’s internal and external Earthquake Hazards research programs in the U.S. midcontinent. The 2012 workshop was developed as a follow-up to the “Workshop on New Madrid Geodesy and Understanding Intraplate Earthquakes,” held in Norwood, Massachusetts, in March 2011. The goal of the 2012 workshop was to provide specific recommendations to the U.S. Geological Survey on priorities for infrastructure and research investments related to geodesy in the U.S. midcontinent.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2013

Seismicity of the Earth 1900-2012 Philippine Sea plate and vicinity

The complex tectonics surrounding the Philippine Islands are dominated by the interactions of the Pacific, Sunda, and Eurasia plates with the Philippine Sea plate (PSP). The latter is unique because it is almost exclusively surrounded by zones of plate convergence. At its eastern and southeastern edges, the Pacific plate is subducted beneath the PSP at the Izu-Bonin, Mariana, and Yap trenches. Here, the subduction zone exhibits high rates of seismic activity to depths of over 600 km, though no great earthquakes (M>8.0) have been observed, likely because of weak coupling along the plate interface. In the northeast, the PSP subducts beneath Japan and the eastern margin of the Eurasia plate at the Nankai and Ryukyu trenches, extending westward to Taiwan. The Nankai portion of this subduction zone has hosted some of the largest earthquakes along the margins of the PSP, including a pair of Mw8.1 megathrust events in 1944 and 1946. Along its western margin, the convergence of the PSP and the Sunda plate is responsible for a broad and active plate boundary system extending along both sides of the Philippine Islands chain. The region is characterized by opposite-facing subduction systems on the east and west sides of the islands, and the archipelago is cut by a major transform structure: the Philippine Fault. Subduction of the Philippine Sea plate occurs at the eastern margin of the islands along the Philippine Trench and its northern extension, the East Luzon Trough. On the west side of Luzon, the Sunda Plate subducts eastward along a series of trenches, including the Manila Trench in the north, the smaller Negros Trench in the central Philippines, and the Sulu and Cotabato trenches in the south. Twentieth and early twentyfirst century seismic activity along the boundaries of the Philippine Sea plate has produced seven great (M>8.0) earthquakes and 250 large (M>7) events. Among the most destructive events were the 1923 Kanto, the 1948 Fukui, and the 1995 Kobe, Japan, earthquakes; the 1935 and the 1999 Chi-Chi, Taiwan, earthquakes; and the 1976 M7.6 Moro Gulf and 1990 M7.6 Luzon, Philippines, earthquakes.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2011

Don't forget about the Christchurch earthquake: Lessons learned from this disaster

In the aftermath of the devastating magnitude-9.0 earthquake and tsunami that struck the Tohoku region of Japan on March 11, attention quickly turned away from a much smaller, but also highly destructive earthquake that struck the city of Christchurch, New Zealand, just a few weeks earlier, on Feb. 22. Both events are stark reminders of human vulnerability to natural disasters and provide a harsh reality check: Even technologically advanced countries with modern building codes are not immune from earthquake disasters. The Christchurch earthquake carried an additional message: Urban devastation can be triggered even by moderate-sized earthquakes.

Christchurch↗

USGS2006

The changing shapes of active volcanoes: History, evolution, and future challenges for volcano geodesy

At the very heart of volcanology lies the search for the 'plumbing systems' that form the inner workings of Earth’s active volcanoes. By their very nature, however, the magmatic reservoirs and conduits that underlie these active volcanic systems are elusive; mostly they are observable only through circumstantial evidence, using indirect, and often ambiguous, surficial measurements. Of course, we can infer much about these systems from geologic investigation of materials brought to the surface by eruptions and of the exposed roots of ancient volcanoes. But how can we study the magmatic processes that are occurring beneath Earth’s active volcanoes? What are the geometry, scale, physical, and chemical characteristics of magma reservoirs? Can we infer the dynamics of magma transport? Can we use this information to better forecast the future behavior of volcanoes? These questions comprise some of the most fundamental, recurring themes of modern research in volcanology. The field of volcano geodesy is uniquely situated to provide critical observational constraints on these problems. For the past decade, armed with a new array of technological innovations, equipped with powerful computers, and prepared with new analytical tools, volcano geodesists have been poised to make significant advances in our fundamental understanding of the behavior of active volcanic systems. The purpose of this volume is to highlight some of these recent advances, particularly in the collection and interpretation of geodetic data from actively deforming volcanoes. The 18 papers that follow report on new geodetic data that offer valuable insights into eruptive activity and magma transport; they present new models and modeling strategies that have the potential to greatly increase understanding of magmatic, hydrothermal, and volcano-tectonic processes; and they describe innovative techniques for collecting geodetic measurements from remote, poorly accessible, or hazardous volcanoes. To provide a proper context for these studies, we offer a short review of the evolution of volcano geodesy, as well as a case study that highlights recent advances in the field by comparing the geodetic response to recent eruptive episodes at Mount St. Helens. Finally, we point out a few areas that continue to challenge the volcano geodesy community, some of which are addressed by the papers that follow and which undoubtedly will be the focus of future research for years to come.

Journal of Volcanology and Geothermal Research↗