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Michael Poland

Publications and source records attributed to Michael Poland.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2026

Getting the story straight: Common misconceptions around volcanoes and eruptions with case studies of recent events

The ability to rapidly disseminate scientific knowledge across the world has never been greater. This is paralleled by the ability of rumors to spread equally far and fast. Popular misconceptions can take root and, without correction, take on the appearance of facts. Commonly misunderstood topics include those with attention-grabbing phrasing (e.g. “Pacific Ring of Fire”, “supervolcanoes”, or “mega-tsunamis”), the intersection of volcanic research with high-profile science topics (climate or human health), aspirational science goals (eruption forecasts), and basic terminology (volcanic ash versus smoke, or magma “chambers”). In this paper, we describe eighteen misconceptions grouped in six themes (seismology, volcanoes and climate, systems and structures, volcanic hazards, timescales, photographs and footage) commonly encountered by volcanologists who are actively engaging with the public and media both during and between eruptions. Each misconception description is accompanied by takeaway points and summaries of recent research to assist the reader with the information necessary to describe the issues. Finally, we present seven case studies where incorrect information was widely shared and counteracted at well-known volcanoes and recent eruptions at Mount Agung (Bali, Indonesia), Mount Etna (Sicily, Italy), Kīlauea (Hawaii, U.S.A.), Tajogaite (La Palma, Spain), La Soufrière (St. Vincent), Taal Volcano (Philippines), and Yellowstone caldera (U.S.A.). This work is intended to help both volcanologists and non-specialists get the story straight, and to effectively communicate processes and scales of volcanism and volcanic hazards, impacts, and risks.

Journal of Applied Volcanology↗
USGS2026

Steps toward a satellite-based global volcano monitoring and early warning system: From pilot to demonstrator to GVEWERS

The consequences of volcanic eruptions span a broad range. Large explosive eruptions that recur every several hundred to thousands of years can impact global climate, but even small eruptions of a magnitude that takes place multiple times each year someplace on Earth can have devastating effects given the large number of people who live near volcanoes. Ground-based monitoring is inadequate or lacking at many of the world’s active volcanoes, but satellite observations can fill important gaps and provide operational awareness of volcanic unrest and eruptions. The need for satellite monitoring of volcanoes has been articulated in numerous international agreements, and for some datasets, like thermal and ultraviolet imagery, daily or sub-daily monitoring has been incorporated into operational volcano surveillance. Utilization of high-resolution synthetic aperture radar (SAR) and optical datasets, however, has lagged. Since 2014, the Committee on Earth Observing Satellites (CEOS) has sponsored a series of projects designed to enhance access to, and utilization of, high-resolution SAR and optical satellite imagery for volcano monitoring. The efforts have culminated in the development of the Global Volcano Early Warning and Eruption Response from Space (GVEWERS) initiative—a global and sustainable program intended to support volcano hazards assessment and mitigation. GVEWERS builds on lessons learned from a decade of CEOS volcano projects while also providing a foundation for continuing to improve the accessibility and exploitation of satellite data for better anticipating and responding to hazardous volcanic eruptions.

Bulletin of Volcanology↗
USGS2026

What a difference a day makes: When and where are daily satellite observations of morphology and deformation needed during volcanic eruptions and unrest?

Daily high-spatial-resolution satellite imagery at active volcanoes could be used to anticipate eruptions and save lives, but is only rarely available or used in real time. Specifically, daily repeat coverage of ground deformation, topography, and surface morphology at volcanoes is now possible using high-spatial resolution optical and radar imagery (< 10 m/pixel). However, multiple satellites are needed—either constellations of four or more sibling satellites or a “virtual constellation” using several different types of satellites. As part of the Global Volcano Early Warning and Eruption Response from Space (G-VEWERS) project of the Committee on Earth Observation Satellites (CEOS), we review case studies at both erupting and restless volcanoes to identify scenarios where near-daily radar (both backscatter images and interferometric products) or optical data captured noteworthy changes, including Merapi and Mount Agung, Indonesia; La Soufrière, St. Vincent; Colima, Mexico; Kīlauea, Hawaiʻi; and Fagradalsfjall, Iceland. Finally, we consider the resources needed to scale this globally. There are 40–50 volcanoes erupting at any given time, but currently only about 10% have daily imaging at high-spatial-resolution. The allocations of high-spatial-resolution imagery available through G-VEWERS and other open datasets (~10,000 scenes/year) are < 60% of what is needed (~17,000 scenes/year) for daily imaging of all restless and erupting volcanoes. We therefore propose criteria to prioritize where daily satellite high-spatial-resolution observations may be useful continuously or under emergency conditions based on the threat and the type of volcano/eruption.

Bulletin of Volcanology↗
USGS2026

Between quiescence and crisis: Hawaiian Volcano Observatory communication and response strategies on the Island of Hawaiʻi

Over the past two centuries, eruptions of Mauna Loa volcano have damaged infrastructure and destroyed several communities on the Island of Hawaiʻi. Future eruptions will impact existing population centers and critical infrastructure, which continue to grow each year. The U.S. Geological Survey Hawaiian Volcano Observatory has developed and practiced methods to promote eruption preparedness in communities on the Island of Hawaiʻi, particularly over the past three decades during which Mauna Loa was quiescent while Kīlauea volcano erupted frequently. Here, we summarize the observatory’s efforts to increase awareness of hazards associated with Hawaiian volcanoes and describe how lessons learned during responses to past volcanic crises on Kīlauea were applied prior to and during the 2022 Mauna Loa eruption, highlighting new response communication challenges encountered during the event. Additionally, we identify potential avenues for future communication/outreach on the Island of Hawaiʻi, such as expanding efforts in communities located in high-hazard areas and striving to be more culturally and linguistically inclusive in our communication techniques.

Hawaii↗
USGS2026

Detecting volcanic deformation in Hawaii using trustworthy multimodal deep learning techniques

Monitoring volcanoes involves a variety of data sources and methods to maintain complete continuity of coverage. Global navigation satellite system (GNSS) and interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) are commonly used complementary methods to assess the deformation state of a volcano as magma migrates beneath the surface. The amount of data these methods produce, however, is growing rapidly beyond human analysis capabilities and is becoming difficult to manage. Here, we create a novel multimodal deep learning framework to ingest InSAR and GNSS data simultaneously and classify the deformation state of the system. We apply this methodology to Mauna Loa, Hawai‘i given its wealth of InSAR and GNSS data as well as its propensity to deform on multiple timescales. Our model performs with high accuracy and is able to identify both slow and fast deformation from 2015 to 2023. The multimodal nature of our model also allows us to identify the presence of atmospheric noise in InSAR data. Furthermore, we employ explainability algorithms to show that our model is making decisions for the right reasons and to connect complex black-box machine learning mappings to current real-world geodetic interpretations of the Mauna Loa magmatic system.

Hawaii↗
USGS2026

Rupture into slow-slip fault regime during the 2018 Mw 6.9 Island of Hawaiʻi earthquake is followed by modest postseismic slip

On 4 May 2018, a M w 6.9 earthquake occurred on the south flank of Kīlauea, in the midst of an historic event that included a voluminous eruption from Kīlauea’s lower East Rift zone and caldera collapse at its summit. The earthquake was a consequence of both short‐ and long‐term stress buildup due to magmatic activity associated with the eruption and steady flank motion, respectively, and it revealed features of Kīlauea’s décollement fault that can inform understanding of future earthquake activity. We used geodetic data to determine the distributions of slip during the coseismic and postseismic periods and compared these with areas of known fault slip during past earthquakes and slow‐slip events (SSEs). The 2018 earthquake ruptured into an area of the décollement fault that was active during quasi‐regular SSEs that occurred in the two decades prior to 2018 but that have not been observed since. The coseismic slip model indicates that the amount of motion on the décollement fault was several times greater than what typically occurred during SSEs, suggesting that it may take decades for the fault to rebuild stress to the point at which SSEs will occur again. Postseismic afterslip also occurred in an area of the fault known to experience slow slip; however, unlike at other creeping faults, postseismic afterslip was rapid, being largely over within 2–3 days. The rapid nature and small magnitude of the postseismic afterslip may be due to the lack of a viscoelastic relaxation component, which is possibly a result of the shallow dip of the décollement fault not transferring stress efficiently into the lower crust.

Hawaii↗
USGS2025

The Hawaiian Volcanoes Supersite: Open data for the benefit of science and society

The Hawaiian Volcanoes Supersite was established in 2008 with the goal of making large amounts of volcano monitoring data, especially satellite measurements, freely available at a site of international interest, scientific importance, and impactful natural hazards. The location was chosen because of the long history of volcanological research and innovation on the Island of Hawaiʻi, as well as the need for monitoring, assessing, and mitigating volcanic hazards for the local population. Ground-based data are provided by the U.S. Geological Survey Hawaiian Volcano Observatory, and several national space agencies have contributed thousands of satellite synthetic aperture radar and other data that would have otherwise required special grants or commercial purchase. Since the Hawaiian Volcanoes Supersite was initiated, the vast quantity of open space-based data has resulted in the development of new applications and methodologies, successful responses to volcanic crises, and research that has informed monitoring and hazards mitigation activities. While there remain opportunities for additional coordination among supersite users and for synergistic studies that make use of the full spectrum of available ground- and space-based data, the Hawaiian Volcanoes Supersite has achieved its goals of stimulating basic research to better understand Hawaiian volcanism and aiding in responses to hazardous geologic processes. The effort serves as a model for the benefits of open, low-latency, and comprehensive satellite data applied to disaster risk management and reduction, meeting a vision that has been laid out repeatedly in international agreements and accords.

Hawaii↗
USGS2025

The first instrumentally detected hydrothermal explosion in Yellowstone National Park

Hydrothermal explosions are one of the geological hazards most likely to impact people in Yellowstone National Park, but their frequency is poorly known. Infrasound and seismic sensors identified an explosion in Norris Geyser Basin on 15 April 2024, at 14:56 MDT (20:56 UTC)—the first instrumentally detected hydrothermal explosion in the Yellowstone region. The event affected an area tens of meters across, resulting in fractured ground, a shallow explosion crater, and a field of ejecta. There were no immediate geophysical precursors, but in the preceding years elevated discharge of thermal water altered the color, temperature, and level of a nearby small lake. Expanded seismo-acoustic monitoring in Yellowstone National Park could be useful for detecting small hydrothermal explosions and constraining their frequency, magnitude, energy release, and locations—information that could be used to better assess and mitigate hazards for the millions of people that visit the park each year.

Wyoming↗
USGS2024

Remote sensing of volcano deformation and surface change

Volcanic unrest and eruptions are associated with surface deformation and landscape change that can be detected, characterized, and tracked via remote sensing measurements. Subsurface processes, including magma accumulation, withdrawal, and transport, can cause displacements at the surface that are best tracked at subaerial volcanoes with interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) and Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) measurements, although non-volcanic activity, like hydrothermal and tectonic sources, can complicate interpretations. Surface change is often associated with the emplacement of volcanic deposits, which modify the landscape and can experience post-emplacement deformation or morphological changes over time. Measurement of surface topography at volcanoes via remote means is a particularly important capability, given the control that topography exerts on many volcanic hazards and the potential for topographic change measurements to provide information about eruption rates. A much broader set of tools is available to investigate surface change at volcanoes, including not only InSAR and GNSS, but also synthetic aperture radar amplitude data, visible imagery, and lidar, acquired from airborne, ground-based, and satellite platforms. These data can also be used to identify instability of volcanic flanks and even have potential for use in detecting airborne ash plumes. Although hidden from traditional airborne and space-based remote sensing, deformation and surface change associated with submarine volcanism can be investigated with pressure sensors and bathymetric measurements—the below-water remote sensing analogs of GNSS and InSAR, respectively.

Book chapter↗
USGS2023

Lessons learned from the 2022 CONVERSE Monogenetic Volcanism Response Scenario exercise

When volcanic unrest occurs, the scientific community can advance fundamental understanding of volcanic systems, but only with coordination before, during, and after the event across academic and governmental agencies. To develop a coordinated response plan, the Community Network for Volcanic Eruption Response (CONVERSE) orchestrated a scenario exercise centered around a hypothetical volcanic crisis in Arizona’s San Francisco Volcanic Field (SFVF). The exercise ran virtually from February 4 to March 4, 2022. Over 60 scientists from both academic and governmental spheres participated. The scenario exercise was assessed for its effectiveness in supporting collaborative production of knowledge, catalyzing transdisciplinary collaboration, supporting researcher confidence, and fostering a culture of inclusion within the volcanology community. This identified a need to support early career researchers through community and allyship. Overall, the 2022 CONVERSE exercise demonstrated how a fully remote, extended scenario can be authentically implemented and help broaden participation within the volcano science community.

Arizona↗
USGS2023

Officially social: Developing a social media crisis communication strategy for USGS Volcanoes during the 2018 Kīlauea eruption

The USGS Volcano Science Center has a long history of science and crisis communication about volcanoes and their eruptions. Centered mainly on websites, email notifications, traditional media, and in-person interaction in the past, our toolkit has expanded in the last decade to include social media channels. This medium has allowed us to communicate with both long-standing and new audiences in new ways. In the process, social media communication has further developed trust in USGS researchers. In particular, the nearly 4-month-long 2018 eruption of Kīlauea volcano in the State of Hawaii necessitated the rapid development of a communication strategy that more deeply incorporated web and social media (Facebook and Twitter) channels to share critical eruption information. This was the first major volcanic eruption response where the USGS used official social media accounts as a significant form of public communication and outreach. These timely and conversive interactions furthered engagement with residents and reinforced the USGS as an authoritative and approachable voice on the eruption with U.S. and international audiences. In many cases, USGS Volcanoes' social media channels were also sampled directly by media outlets looking to provide current information, particularly by local reporters and citizen journalists. This helped disseminate scientific information directly to those who needed it and removed pressure from observatory scientists to respond to media requests. In short, the conversational tone and engaged and inquisitive online audience allowed the USGS Volcanoes' social media channels to act as a virtual community meeting, which nurtured a nearly continuous educational environment for both directly affected and distant members of the public. We present the history and details of this strategy here in hopes that it will benefit volcano observatories and other official agencies and crisis communicators.

Hawaii↗
USGS2023

Rapid pre-explosion increase in dome extrusion rate at La Soufrière, St. Vincent quantified from synthetic aperture radar backscatter

The extrusion rate of a lava dome is a critical parameter for monitoring silicic eruptions and forecasting their development. Satellite radar backscatter can provide unique information about dome growth during a volcanic eruption when other datasets (e.g., optical, thermal, ground-based measurements, etc.) may be limited. Here, we present an approach for estimating volcanic topography from individual backscatter images. Using data from multiple SAR sensors we apply the method to the dome growth during the 2021 eruption at La Soufrière, St. Vincent. We measure an average extrusion rate of 1.8 m 3 s −1 between December 2020 and March 2021 before an acceleration in extrusion rate to 17.5 m 3 s −1 in the 2 days prior to the explosive eruption on 9 April 2021. We estimate a final dome volume of 19.4 million m 3 , extrapolated from the SAR sensors, with approximately 15% of the total extruded volume emplaced in the last 2 days. A possible explanation for the acceleration in extrusion rate could be the combined emptying of a conduit and reservoir of older material before the ascent of gas-rich magma in April 2021.

La Soufrière, Saint Vincent↗
USGS2022

Optimizing satellite resources for the global assessment and mitigation of volcanic hazards—Suggestions from the USGS Powell Center Volcano Remote Sensing Working Group

A significant number of the world’s approximately 1,400 subaerial volcanoes with Holocene eruptions are unmonitored by ground-based sensors yet constitute a potential hazard to nearby residents and infrastructure, as well as air travel and global commerce. Data from an international constellation of more than 60 current satellite instruments provide a cost-effective means of tracking activity and potentially forecasting hazards at volcanoes around the world. These data span the electromagnetic spectrum: ultraviolet, optical, infrared, and microwave (synthetic aperture radar). They can measure volcanic thermal and gas emissions, ground displacement, and surface and topographic change, providing information that addresses one of the grand challenges in volcanology—to overcome our incomplete understanding of the relation between volcanic unrest and eruption, which is currently based on only a few well-studied volcanoes. Although the potential of volcano remote sensing has been recognized for decades, there are many hurdles to clear before remote sensing data can be used fully by all volcano observatories. These include: (1) the limited temporal and spatial coverage of active volcanoes by satellites and the delayed distribution of those data; (2) the lack of background data acquired at all volcanoes; and (3) limited access to, and utilization of, remote sensing data in some areas owing to a lack of expertise, licensing, user-friendly formats, data access portals, or computational infrastructure. While remote sensing data will never replace ground-based monitoring, a joint observation strategy provides a powerful means of assessing volcanic activity before, during, and after hazardous eruptions, especially given the unique spatial, temporal, and spectral perspective provided by remote measurements. A coordinated international remote sensing observation strategy for volcanoes—similar to one used by the cryosphere community—along with a volcano space task group to maximize the utility of satellite data for volcano monitoring would be highly beneficial. Such a vision could facilitate (1) global coordination of satellite observations (as done for polar regions) for background monitoring and eruption response, (2) open data that can be rapidly distributed during crises, (3) communication tools and forums for discussion of satellite data, (4) integrated ground and satellite databases of unrest, and (5) global capacity building.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2022

Synthetic aperture radar volcanic flow maps (SAR VFMs): A simple method for rapid identification and mapping of volcanic mass flows

Volcanic mass flows, including lava, pyroclastic density currents, and lahars, account for the bulk of fatalities and infrastructure damage caused by volcanic eruptions. Mapping these flows soon after their emplacement is vital to understanding their impact and to forecasting the likely behavior of potential future flows. Synthetic aperture radar (SAR) can provide useful information about surface properties and changes regardless of environmental conditions or time of day, but no individual SAR product can unambiguously detect and map surface mass flows in all conditions. Combining SAR products, however, can capitalize on the strengths and compensate for the weaknesses of individual data types. SAR volcanic flow maps (SAR VFMs) merge cross-polarized amplitude imagery from two different dates with interferometric coherence spanning those dates. The combination of amplitude change with coherence provides a means of detecting volcanic mass flows regardless of surface conditions, and data collected by satellite provide the spatial coverage needed to detect changes over broad areas. Application to eruptions of Kīlauea (Hawaiʻi), Nyiragongo (Democratic Republic of Congo), Sinabung (Indonesia), and Fuego (Guatemala) demonstrate the value of SAR VFMs for monitoring hazardous volcanic activity, and the importance of acquiring cross-polarized satellite SAR imagery for volcano applications. The ever-growing number of public and private satellite SAR missions will provide for improved temporal resolution in SAR VFMs in the future, and the technique may be suitable for automated analysis that is capable of timely identification of changes due to volcanic activity, even in areas that are otherwise unmonitored.

Hawaii↗
USGS2022

Volcano geodesy using InSAR in 2020: The past and next decades

The study of volcano deformation has grown significantly through they year 2020 since the development of interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) in the 1990s. This relatively new data source, which provides evidence of changes in subsurface magma storage and pressure without the need for ground-based equipment, has matured during the past decade. It now provides a means to address previously inaccessible questions and offers input to increasingly complex models of magmatic processes. Here, we review how technological advances in InSAR during 2010-2020 have facilitated our ability to monitor and interpret volcanic processes, primarily through rapid and accurate observations of the changing surfaces at active volcanoes worldwide. Specifically, we examine how current systems achieve excellent resolution in time and space, provide global coverage, and generate products that are easy to use by non-specialists—factors that have often limited the practical study of volcanoes using radar measurements. We also look to the future, offering our perspective about how advancements in technology and data management in the decade to come will increase the value and accessibility of InSAR applied to the geodetic study of volcanoes and monitoring of hazardous volcanic processes. New developments will include the launch of additional satellites by both public space agencies and private companies, as well as implementation of algorithms for exploiting the growing volumes of data. To meet their full potential, these efforts will require coordination between data users and data providers so that the relevant imagery is acquired, made available to volcanologists in a timely fashion, and utilized to assess and mitigate volcanic hazards.

Bulletin of Volcanology↗
USGS2022

Rainfall an unlikely trigger of Kilauea’s 2018 rift eruption

If volcanic eruptions could be forecast from the occurrence of some external process, it might be possible to better mitigate risk and protect lives and livelihoods. Farquharson and Amelung 1 suggested that the 2018 lower East Rift Zone (ERZ) eruption of Kīlauea Volcano—the most destructive eruption in Hawai‘i in at least 200 years 2 —was triggered by extreme precipitation, which caused increased pore pressure that resulted in mechanical weakening of the volcano. Here we argue that Kīlauea’s 2018 eruption was instead caused by significant pre-eruptive pressurization, that pre-eruptive rainfall was not extreme, and that there is no significant correlation between rain and eruptions at Kīlauea. Understanding the causal mechanisms of volcanic eruptions is vital for hazard assessment and mitigation, and misattribution may compromise monitoring, preparedness, communication and response efforts.

Hawaii↗
USGS2021

Volcano geodesy: A critical tool for assessing the state of volcanoes and their potential for hazardous eruptive activity

Since the beginning of the 20th century, volcano geodesy has evolved from time- and personnel-intensive methods for collecting discrete measurements to automated and/or remote tools that provide data with exceptional spatiotemporal resolution. By acknowledging and overcoming limitations related to data collection and interpretation, geodesy becomes a powerful tool for forecasting the onset and tracking the evolution of volcanic eruptions. In addition, geodetic data can be used for novel applications, such as mapping surface and topographic change due to the emplacement of volcanic deposits, detecting volcanic plumes, and constraining the properties of magmatic systems. These collective capabilities provide critical support for understanding magmatic processes at erupting volcanoes, while also offering important baseline data in advance of potential volcanic unrest. Future developments in volcano geodesy will involve not just new technology, but also advanced modeling and automated analysis methods that will provide a new understanding of the volcanic activity.

Book chapter↗