Geology topics

Michael M. Bailey

Publications and source records attributed to Michael M. Bailey.

5 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2021

What have we lost? Modeling dam impacts on American shad populations through their native range

American shad ( Alosa sapidissima ) are native to the east coast of North America from the St. Johns River, Florida, to the St. Lawrence River region in Canada. Since the 1800s, dams have reduced access to spawning habitat. To assess the impact of dams, we estimated the historically accessed spawning habitat in coastal rivers (485,618 river segments with 21,113 current dams) based on (i) width, (ii) distance from seawater, and (iii) slope (to exclude natural barriers to migration) combined with local knowledge. Estimated habitat available prior to dam construction (2,752 km 2 ) was 41% greater than current fully accessible habitat (1,639 km 2 ). River-specific population models were developed using habitat estimates and latitudinally appropriate life history parameters (e.g., size at age, maturity, iteroparity). Estimated coast-wide annual production potential was 69.1 million spawners compared with a dammed scenario (41.8 million spawners). Even with optimistic fish passage performance assumed for all dams (even if passage is completely absent), the dam-imposed deficit was alleviated by fewer than 3 million spawners. We estimate that in rivers modeled without dams, 98,000 metric tons of marine sourced biomass and nutrients were annually delivered, 60% of which was retained through carcasses, gametes and metabolic waste. Damming is estimated to have reduced this by more than one third. Based on our results, dams represent a significant and acute constraint to the population and, with other human impacts, reduce the fishery potential and ecological services attributed to the species.

Frontiers in Marine Science↗

USGS2021

Climate change may cause shifts in growth and instantaneous natural mortality of American Shad throughout their native range

American Shad Alosa sapidissima is an anadromous species with populations ranging along the U.S. Atlantic coast. Past American Shad stock assessments have been data limited and estimating system-specific growth parameters or instantaneous natural mortality ( M ) was not possible. This precluded system-specific stock assessment and management due to reliance on these parameters for estimating other population dynamics (such as yield per recruit). Furthermore, climate-informed biological reference points remain a largely unaddressed need in American Shad stock assessment. Population abundance estimates of American Shad and other species often rely heavily on M derived from von Bertalanffy growth function (VBGF) parameters. Therefore, we developed Bayesian hierarchical models to estimate coastwide, regional, and system-specific VBGF parameters and M using data collected from 1982 to 2017. We tested predictive performance of models that included effects of various climate variables on VBGF parameters within these models. System-specific models were better supported than regional or coast-wide models. Mean asymptotic length ( L ∞ ) decreased with increasing mean annual sea surface temperature (SST) and degree days (DD) experienced by fish during their lifetime. Although uncertain, K (Brody growth coefficient) decreased over the same range of lifetime SST and DD. Assuming no adaptation, we projected changes in VBGF parameters and M through 2099 using modeled SST from two climate projection scenarios (Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5). We predicted reduced growth under both scenarios, and M was projected to increase by about 0.10. It is unclear how reduced growth and increased mortality may influence population productivity or life history adaptation in the future, but our results may inform stock assessment models to assess those trade-offs.

Transactions of the American Fisheries Society↗

USGS2014

Movements and demography of spawning American Shad in the Penobscot River, Maine, prior to dam removal

We conducted a baseline study to better understand the migratory movements and age and spawning histories of American Shad Alosa sapidissima in the Penobscot River, Maine. The Penobscot River is currently undergoing a major dam removal project that is focused on restoring migratory connectivity and recovering diadromous fish populations including American Shad. This study addresses key data gaps for a previously unstudied native population of shad prior to restoration. A combination of radio- ( n = 70) and acoustic telemetry ( n = 14) was used to investigate the movements of migratory adult fish in 2010 and 2011. Scale-based analyses were used to assess spawner age and iteroparity. Radiotelemetry results indicated that few tagged fish (5–8%) approached the head-of-tide dam. Tagged fish exhibited three general patterns of movement in the accessible freshwater river habitat: use of the upper river reach, the lower river reach, or both. Mean freshwater residence time ranged from 9.1 to 14.0 d. Congregating fish were observed at two sites in the upper river reach and spawning activity was observed. Freshwater survival and survival to the estuary were at least 71%. This observed high survival was consistent with the estimated age and spawning histories of tracked fish, which indicated that 75–95% of the sampled fish were repeat spawners. Estimated age of adult migrants ranged from age 4 to age 9. Postspawning acoustic-tagged American Shad exhibited a series of prolonged upstream and downstream reversals upon entering the lower estuary. These movements have been previously unreported, and suggest that estuarine residency after spawning is important to osmoregulatory acclimatization for re-entry into salt water and the resumption of postspawning feeding activity.

Transactions of the American Fisheries Society↗

USGS2014

Multibeam sonar (DIDSON) assessment of American shad ( Alosa sapidissima ) approaching a hydroelectric dam

We investigated the fish community approaching the Veazie Dam on the Penobscot River, Maine, prior to implementation of a major dam removal and river restoration project. Multibeam sonar (dual-frequency identification sonar, DIDSON) surveys were conducted continuously at the fishway entrance from May to July in 2011. A 5% subsample of DIDSON data contained 43 793 fish targets, the majority of which were of Excellent (15.7%) or Good (73.01%) observation quality. Excellent quality DIDSON targets ( n = 6876) were apportioned by species using a Bayesian mixture model based on four known fork length distributions (river herring (alewife, Alosa psuedoharengus , and blueback herring, Alosa aestivalis ), American shad, Alosa sapidissima ) and two size classes (one sea-winter and multi-sea-winter) of Atlantic salmon ( Salmo salar ). 76.2% of targets were assigned to the American shad distribution; Atlantic salmon accounted for 15.64%, and river herring 8.16% of observed targets. Shad-sized (99.0%) and salmon-sized (99.3%) targets approached the fishway almost exclusively during the day, whereas river herring-sized targets were observed both during the day (51.1%) and at night (48.9%). This approach demonstrates how multibeam sonar imaging can be used to evaluate community composition and species-specific movement patterns in systems where there is little overlap in the length distributions of target species.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences↗

USGS2013

To stock or not to stock? Assessing restoration potential of a remnant American shad spawning run with hatchery supplementation

Hatchery supplementation has been widely used as a restoration technique for American Shad Alosa sapidissima on the East Coast of the USA, but results have been equivocal. In the Penobscot River, Maine, dam removals and other improvements to fish passage will likely reestablish access to the majority of this species’ historic spawning habitat. Additional efforts being considered include the stocking of larval American Shad. The decision about whether to stock a river system undergoing restoration should be made after evaluating the probability of natural recolonization and examining the costs and benefits of potentially accelerating recovery using a stocking program. However, appropriate evaluation can be confounded by a dearth of information about the starting population size and age structure of the remnant American Shad spawning run in the river. We used the Penobscot River as a case study to assess the theoretical sensitivity of recovery time to either scenario (stocking or not) by building a deterministic model of an American Shad population. This model is based on the best available estimates of size at age, fecundity, rate of iteroparity, and recruitment. Density dependence was imposed, such that the population reached a plateau at an arbitrary recovery goal of 633,000 spawning adults. Stocking had a strong accelerating effect on the time to modeled recovery (as measured by the time to reach 50% of the recovery goal) in the base model, but stocking had diminishing effects with larger population sizes. There is a diminishing return to stocking when the starting population is modestly increased. With a low starting population (a spawning run of 1,000), supplementation with 12 million larvae annually accelerated modeled recovery by 12 years. Only a 2-year acceleration was observed if the starting population was 15,000. Such a heuristic model may aid managers in assessing the costs and benefits of stocking by incorporating a structured decision framework.

North American Journal of Fisheries Management↗