Geology topics

Michael L. Jones

Publications and source records attributed to Michael L. Jones.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

USGS2014

The effect of adjusting model inputs to achieve mass balance on time-dynamic simulations in a food-web model of Lake Huron

Ecopath with Ecosim (EwE) is a widely used modeling tool in fishery research and management. Ecopath requires a mass-balanced snapshot of a food web at a particular point in time, which Ecosim then uses to simulate changes in biomass over time. Initial inputs to Ecopath, including estimates for biomasses, production to biomass ratios, consumption to biomass ratios, and diets, rarely produce mass balance, and thus ad hoc changes to inputs are required to balance the model. There has been little previous research of whether ad hoc changes to achieve mass balance affect Ecosim simulations. We constructed an EwE model for the offshore community of Lake Huron, and balanced the model using four contrasting but realistic methods. The four balancing methods were based on two contrasting approaches; in the first approach, production of unbalanced groups was increased by increasing either biomass or the production to biomass ratio, while in the second approach, consumption of predators on unbalanced groups was decreased by decreasing either biomass or the consumption to biomass ratio. We compared six simulation scenarios based on three alternative assumptions about the extent to which mortality rates of prey can change in response to changes in predator biomass (i.e., vulnerabilities) under perturbations to either fishing mortality or environmental production. Changes in simulated biomass values over time were used in a principal components analysis to assess the comparative effect of balancing method, vulnerabilities, and perturbation types. Vulnerabilities explained the most variation in biomass, followed by the type of perturbation. Choice of balancing method explained little of the overall variation in biomass. Under scenarios where changes in predator biomass caused large changes in mortality rates of prey (i.e., high vulnerabilities), variation in biomass was greater than when changes in predator biomass caused only small changes in mortality rates of prey (i.e., low vulnerabilities), and was amplified when environmental production was increased. When standardized to mean changes in biomass within each scenario, scenarios when vulnerabilities were low and when fishing mortality was increased explained the most variation in biomass. Our findings suggested that approaches to balancing Ecopath models have relatively little effect on changes in biomass over time, especially when compared to assumptions about how mortality rates of prey change in response to changes in predator biomass. We concluded that when constructing food-web models using EwE, determining the effect of changes in predator biomass on mortality rates of prey should be prioritized over determining the best way to balance the model.

Lake Huron↗

USGS2014

Foraging and predation risk for larval cisco (Coregonus artedi) in Lake Superior: A modelling synthesis of empirical survey data

The relative importance of predation and food availability as contributors to larval cisco ( Coregonus artedi ) mortality in Lake Superior were investigated using a visual foraging model to evaluate potential predation pressure by rainbow smelt ( Osmerus mordax ) and a bioenergetic model to evaluate potential starvation risk. The models were informed by observations of rainbow smelt, larval cisco, and zooplankton abundance at three Lake Superior locations during the period of spring larval cisco emergence and surface-oriented foraging. Predation risk was highest at Black Bay, ON, where average rainbow smelt densities in the uppermost 10 m of the water column were >1000 ha −1 . Turbid conditions at the Twin Ports, WI-MN, affected larval cisco predation risk because rainbow smelt remained suspended in the upper water column during daylight, placing them alongside larval cisco during both day and night hours. Predation risk was low at Cornucopia, WI, owing to low smelt densities (<400 ha −1 ) and deep light penetration, which kept rainbow smelt near the lakebed and far from larvae during daylight. In situ zooplankton density estimates were low compared to the values used to develop the larval coregonid bioenergetics model, leading to predictions of negative growth rates for 10 mm larvae at all three locations. The model predicted that 15 mm larvae were capable of attaining positive growth at Cornucopia and the Twin Ports where low water temperatures (2–6 °C) decreased their metabolic costs. Larval prey resources were highest at Black Bay but warmer water temperatures there offset the benefit of increased prey availability. A sensitivity analysis performed on the rainbow smelt visual foraging model showed that it was relatively insensitive, while the coregonid bioenergetics model showed that the absolute growth rate predictions were highly sensitive to input parameters (i.e., 20% parameter perturbation led to order of magnitude differences in model estimates). Our modelling indicated that rainbow smelt predation may limit larval cisco survival at Black Bay and to a lesser extent at Twin Ports, and that starvation may be a major source of mortality at all three locations. The framework we describe has the potential to further our understanding of the relative importance of starvation and predation on larval fish survivorship, provided information on prey resources available to larvae are measured at sufficiently fine spatial scales and the models provide a realistic depiction of the dynamic processes that the larvae experience.

Lake Superior↗

USGS2014

Survival and metamorphosis of low-density populations of larval sea lampreys (Petromyzon marinus) in streams following lampricide treatment

Sea lamprey Petromyzon marinus control in the Great Lakes primarily involves application of lampricides to streams where larval production occurs to kill larvae prior to their metamorphosing and entering the lakes as parasites (juveniles). Because lampricides are not 100% effective, larvae that survive treatment maymetamorphose before streams are again treated. Larvae that survive treatment have not beenwidely studied, so their dynamics are notwell understood.Wetagged and released larvae in six Great Lake tributaries following lampricide treatment and estimated vital demographic rates using multistate tag-recovery models. Model-averaged larval survivals ranged from 56.8 to 57.6%. Model-averaged adult recovery rates, which were the product of juvenile survivals and adult capture probabilities, ranged from 6.8 to 9.3%. Using stochastic simulations, we estimated production of juvenile sea lampreys from a hypothetical population of treatment survivors under different growth conditions based on parameter estimates from this research. For fast-growing populations, juvenile production peaked 2 years after treatment. For slow-growing populations, juvenile production was approximately one-third that of fast-growing populations,with production not peaking until 4 years after treatment. Our results suggest that dynamics (i.e., survival, metamorphosis) of residual larval populations are very similar to those of untreated larval populations. Consequently, residual populations do not necessarily warrant special consideration for the purpose of sea lamprey control and can be ranked for treatment along with other populations. Consecutive lampricide treatments, which are under evaluation by the sea lamprey control program, would bemost effective for reducing juvenile production in large, fast-growing populations.

Michigan, Ontario, Wisconsin↗

USGS2014

A multispecies statistical age-structured model to assess predator-prey balance: application to an intensively managed Lake Michigan pelagic fish community

Using a Bayesian model fitting approach, we developed a multispecies statistical catch-at-age model to assess trade-offs between predatory demands and prey productivities, focusing on the Lake Michigan pelagic fish community. We assessed these trade-offs in terms of predation mortalities and productivities of alewife (Alosa pseudoharengus) and rainbow smelt (Osmerus mordax) and functional responses of salmonines. Our predation mortality estimates suggest that salmonine consumption has been a major driver of historical fluctuations in prey abundance, with sharp declines in alewife abundance in the 1980s and 2000s coinciding with estimated increases in predation mortalities. While Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) were food limited during periods of low alewife abundance, other salmonines appeared to maintain a (near) maximum per-predator consumption across all observed prey densities, suggesting that feedback mechanisms are unlikely to help maintain a balance between predator consumption and prey productivity in Lake Michigan. This study demonstrates that a multispecies modeling approach that combines stock assessment methods with explicit consideration of predator–prey interactions could provide the basis for tactical decision-making from a broader ecosystem perspective.

Lake Michigan↗

USGS2014

Estimating reach-specific fish movement probabilities in rivers with a Bayesian state-space model: application to sea lamprey passage and capture at dams

Improved methods are needed to evaluate barriers and traps for control and assessment of invasive sea lamprey ( Petromyzon marinus ) in the Great Lakes. A Bayesian state-space model provided reach-specific probabilities of movement, including trap capture and dam passage, for 148 acoustic tagged invasive sea lamprey in the lower Cheboygan River, Michigan, a tributary to Lake Huron. Reach-specific movement probabilities were combined to obtain estimates of spatial distribution and abundance needed to evaluate a barrier and trap complex for sea lamprey control and assessment. Of an estimated 21 828 – 29 300 adult sea lampreys in the river, 0%–2%, or 0–514 untagged lampreys, could have passed upstream of the dam, and 46%–61% were caught in the trap. Although no tagged lampreys passed above the dam (0/148), our sample size was not sufficient to consider the lock and dam a complete barrier to sea lamprey. Results also showed that existing traps are in good locations because 83%–96% of the population was vulnerable to existing traps. However, only 52%–69% of lampreys vulnerable to traps were caught, suggesting that traps can be improved. The approach used in this study was a novel use of Bayesian state-space models that may have broader applications, including evaluation of barriers for other invasive species (e.g., Asian carp ( Hypophthalmichthys spp.)) and fish passage structures for other diadromous fishes.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences↗

USGS2013

A spatial age-structured model for describing sea lamprey ( Petromyzon marinus ) population dynamics

The control of invasive sea lampreys ( Petromyzon marinus ) presents large scale management challenges in the Laurentian Great Lakes. No modeling approach has been developed that describes spatial dynamics of lamprey populations. We developed and validated a spatial and age-structured model and applied it to a sea lamprey population in a large river in the Great Lakes basin. We considered 75 discrete spatial areas, included a stock-recruitment function, spatial recruitment patterns, natural mortality, chemical treatment mortality, and larval metamorphosis. Recruitment was variable, and an upstream shift in recruitment location was observed over time. From 1993–2011 recruitment, larval abundance, and the abundance of metamorphosing individuals decreased by 80, 84, and 86%, respectively. The model successfully identified areas of high larval abundance and showed that areas of low larval density contribute significantly to the population. Estimated treatment mortality was less than expected but had a large population-level impact. The results and general approach of this work have applications for sea lamprey control throughout the Great Lakes and for the restoration and conservation of native lamprey species globally.

Great Lakes↗

USGS2012

Unintended consequences and trade-offs of fish passage

We synthesized evidence for unintended consequences and trade-offs associated with the passage of fishes. Provisioning of fish passageways at dams and dam removals are being carried out increasingly as resource managers seek ways to reduce fragmentation of migratory fish populations and restore biodiversity and nature-like ecosystem services in tributaries altered by dams. The benefits of provisioning upstream passage are highlighted widely. Possible unwanted consequences and trade-offs of upstream passage are coming to light, but remain poorly examined and underappreciated. Unintended consequences arise when passage of native and desirable introduced fishes is delayed, undone (fallback), results in patterns of movement and habitat use that reduce Darwinian fitness (e.g. ecological traps), or is highly selective taxonomically and numerically. Trade-offs arise when passage decisions intended to benefit native species interfere with management decisions intended to control the unwanted spread of non-native fishes and aquatic invertebrates, or genes, diseases and contaminants carried by hatchery and wild fishes. These consequences and trade-offs will vary in importance from system to system and can result in large economic and environmental costs. For some river systems, decisions about how to manage fish passage involve substantial risks and could benefit from use of a formal, structured process that allows transparent, objective and, where possible, quantitative evaluation of these risks. Such a process can also facilitate the design of an adaptive framework that provides valuable insights into future decisions.

Fish and Fisheries↗

USGS2011

Reassessment of the predatory effects of rainbow smelt on ciscoes in Lake Superior

Evidence from small lakes suggests that predation on larval ciscoes Coregonus artedi by nonnative rainbow smelt Osmerus mordax can lead to cisco suppression or extirpation. However, evidence from larger lakes has led to equivocal conclusions. In this study, we examine the potential predation effects of rainbow smelt in two adjacent but contrasting embayments in Lake Superior (Thunder and Black bays, Ontario). During May 2006, we sampled the ichthyoplankton, pelagic fish communities, and diet composition of rainbow smelt in both bays. Using acoustics and midwater trawling, we estimated rainbow smelt densities to be 476 ± 34/ha (mean ± SE) in Thunder Bay and 3,435 ± 460/ha in Black Bay. We used a bioenergetics model to estimate the proportion of cisco larvae consumed by rainbow smelt. Our results suggest that predation by rainbow smelt accounts for 15–52% and 37–100% of the mortality of larval ciscoes in Thunder and Black bays, respectively, depending on the predator feeding rate and the scale of predator–prey overlap. We also examined the sensitivity of past conclusions (based on 1974 field collections) to assumptions of temporal overlap between rainbow smelt and larval ciscoes and estimates of rainbow smelt abundance derived from bottom trawl samples. After adjusting these parameters to reflect current understanding, we found that the previous predation estimates may have been conservative. We conclude that rainbow smelt may have been a more important contributor to the demise and slow recovery of ciscoes in Lake Superior than previously thought.

Lake Superior↗

USGS2010

Spatial and temporal dynamics of lake whitefish (Coregonus clupeaformis) health indicators: linking individual-based indicators to a management-relevant endpoint

We examined the spatial and temporal dynamics of health indicators in four lake whitefish ( Coregonus clupeaformis ) stocks located in northern lakes Michigan and Huron from 2003 to 2006. The specific objectives were to (1) quantify spatial and temporal variability in health indicators; (2) examine relationships among nutritional indicators and stock-specific spatial and temporal dynamics of pathogen prevalence and intensity of infection; and (3) examine relationships between indicators measured on individual fish and stock-specific estimates of natural mortality. The percent of the total variation attributed to spatial and temporal sources varied greatly depending on the health indicator examined. The most notable pattern was a downward trend in the concentration of highly unsaturated fatty acids (HUFAs), observed in all stocks, in the polar lipid fraction of lake whitefish dorsal muscle tissue over the three study years. Variation among stocks and years for some indicators were correlated with the prevalence and intensity of the swimbladder nematode Cystidicola farionis , suggesting that our measures of fish health were related, at some level, with disease dynamics. We did not find relationships between spatial patterns in fish health indicators and estimates of natural mortality rates for the stocks. Our research highlights the complexity of the interactions between fish nutritional status, disease dynamics, and natural mortality in wild fish populations. Additional research that identifies thresholds of health indicators, below (or above) which survival may be reduced, will greatly help in understanding the relationship between indicators measured on individual fish and potential population-level effects.

Michigan↗

USGS2009

Adaptations in a hierarchical food web of southeastern Lake Michigan

Two issues in ecological network theory are: (1) how to construct an ecological network model and (2) how do entire networks (as opposed to individual species) adapt to changing conditions? We present a novel method for constructing an ecological network model for the food web of southeastern Lake Michigan (USA) and we identify changes in key system properties that are large relative to their uncertainty as this ecological network adapts from one time point to a second time point in response to multiple perturbations. To construct our food web for southeastern Lake Michigan, we followed the list of seven recommendations outlined in Cohen et al. [Cohen, J.E., et al., 1993. Improving food webs. Ecology 74, 252–258] for improving food webs. We explored two inter-related extensions of hierarchical system theory with our food web; the first one was that subsystems react to perturbations independently in the short-term and the second one was that a system's properties change at a slower rate than its subsystems’ properties. We used Shannon's equations to provide quantitative versions of the basic food web properties: number of prey, number of predators, number of feeding links, and connectance (or density). We then compared these properties between the two time-periods by developing distributions of each property for each time period that took uncertainty about the property into account. We compared these distributions, and concluded that non-overlapping distributions indicated changes in these properties that were large relative to their uncertainty. Two subsystems were identified within our food web system structure ( p < 0.001). One subsystem had more non-overlapping distributions in food web properties between Time 1 and Time 2 than the other subsystem. The overall system had all overlapping distributions in food web properties between Time 1 and Time 2. These results supported both extensions of hierarchical systems theory. Interestingly, the subsystem with more non-overlapping distributions in food web properties was the subsystem that contained primarily benthic taxa, contrary to expectations that the identified major perturbations (lower phosphorous inputs and invasive species) would more greatly affect the subsystem containing primarily pelagic taxa. Future food-web research should employ rigorous statistical analysis and incorporate uncertainty in food web properties for a better understanding of how ecological networks adapt.

Lake Michigan↗

USGS2009

A biophysical model of Lake Erie walleye ( Sander vitreus ) explains interannual variations in recruitment

We used a three-dimensional coupled hydrodynamic-ecological model to investigate how lake currents can affect walleye ( Sander vitreus ) recruitment in western Lake Erie. Four years were selected based on a fall recruitment index: two high recruitment years (i.e., 1996 and 1999) and two low recruitment years (i.e., 1995 and 1998). During the low recruitment years, the model predicted that (i) walleye spawning grounds experienced destructive bottom currents capable of dislodging eggs from suitable habitats (reefs) to unsuitable habitats (i.e., muddy bottom), and (ii) the majority of newly hatched larvae were transported away from the known suitable nursery grounds at the start of their first feeding. Conversely, during two high recruitment years, predicted bottom currents at the spawning grounds were relatively weak, and the predicted movement of newly hatched larvae was toward suitable nursery grounds. Thus, low disturbance-based egg mortality and a temporal and spatial match between walleye first feeding larvae and their food resources were predicted for the two high recruitment years, and high egg mortality plus a mismatch of larvae with their food resources was predicted for the two low recruitment years. In general, mild westerly or southwesterly winds during the spawning-nursery period should favour walleye recruitment in the lake.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences↗

USGS2006

Forecasting effects of climate change on Great Lakes fisheries: models that link habitat supply to population dynamics can help

Future changes to climate in the Great Lakes may have important consequences for fisheries. Evidence suggests that Great Lakes air and water temperatures have risen and the duration of ice cover has lessened during the past century. Global circulation models (GCMs) suggest future warming and increases in precipitation in the region. We present new evidence that water temperatures have risen in Lake Erie, particularly during summer and winter in the period 19652000. GCM forecasts coupled with physical models suggest lower annual runoff, less ice cover, and lower lake levels in the future, but the certainty of these forecasts is low. Assessment of the likely effects of climate change on fish stocks will require an integrative approach that considers several components of habitat rather than water temperature alone. We recommend using mechanistic models that couple habitat conditions to population demographics to explore integrated effects of climate-caused habitat change and illustrate this approach with a model for Lake Erie walleye ( Sander vitreum ). We show that the combined effect on walleye populations of plausible changes in temperature, river hydrology, lake levels, and light penetration can be quite different from that which would be expected based on consideration of only a single factor.

Canadian Journal of Fisheries and Aquatic Sciences↗

USGS2003

Compensatory mechanisms in Great Lakes sea lamprey populations: implications for alternative control strategies

Compensatory mechanisms are demographic processes that tend to increase population growth rates at lower population density. These processes will tend to reduce the effectiveness of actions that use controls on reproductive success to suppress sea lamprey ( Petromyzon marinus ), an economically important pest in the Great Lakes. Historical evidence for compensatory mechanisms in sea lamprey populations was reviewed, and revealed: (1) strong evidence for shifts in sex ratios as sea lamprey abundance was reduced in the early years of the control program; (2) weak and equivocal evidence for increased growth rates of sea lamprey cohorts re-colonizing streams following a lampricide treatment; and (3) suggestions of other compensatory processes, such as earlier ages at metamorphosis, but with little empirical evidence. Larval size distribution data for cohorts in the first and second years following a lampricide treatment (26 pairs of cohorts in 20 streams) was analyzed and did not indicate a consistent pattern of more rapid growth of the first colonizing cohort (only 11 of 33 cases). To test for compensation between spawning and age-1 in sea lamprey populations, data were analyzed for 49 stream-years for which spawning female abundance was known and age-1 abundance was estimated in the following year. A fit of these data to a Ricker stock-recruitment function showed evidence for compensation, measured as reduced survival to age 1 at higher abundance of spawning females. More obvious, however, was a large amount of density-independent variation in survival, which tends to mask evidence for compensatory survival. The results were applied to a simple model that simulates sea lamprey populations and their control in a hypothetical lake. Control strategies that targeted reproductive success performed far less well than comparable strategies that targeted larval populations, because density-independent recruitment variation leads to occasional strong year classes even when spawner abundance is reduced to low levels through alternative control. It is concluded that further study of recruitment variation in lamprey populations is critical to rationalizing alternative controls that target reproductive success, and that recruitment variation needs to be incorporated into models used to evaluate sea lamprey control options.

Journal of Great Lakes Research↗

USGS2003

Relative contributions of sampling effort, measuring, and weighing to precision of larval sea lamprey biomass estimates

We developed two weight-length models from 231 populations of larval sea lampreys (Petromyzon marinus) collected from tributaries of the Great Lakes: Lake Ontario (21), Lake Erie (6), Lake Huron (67), Lake Michigan (76), and Lake Superior (61). Both models were mixed models, which used population as a random effect and additional environmental factors as fixed effects. We resampled weights and lengths 1,000 times from data collected in each of 14 other populations not used to develop the models, obtaining a weight and length distribution from reach resampling. To test model performance, we applied the two weight-length models to the resampled length distributions and calculated the predicted mean weights. We also calculated the observed mean weight for each resampling and for each of the original 14 data sets. When the average of predicted means was compared to means from the original data in each stream, inclusion of environmental factors did not consistently improve the performance of the weight-length model. We estimated the variance associated with measures of abundance and mean weight for each of the 14 selected populations and determined that a conservative estimate of the proportional contribution to variance associated with estimating abundance accounted for 32% to 95% of the variance (mean = 66%). Variability in the biomass estimate appears more affected by variability in estimating abundance than in converting length to weight. Hence, efforts to improve the precision of biomass estimates would be aided most by reducing the variability associated with estimating abundance.

Journal of Great Lakes Research↗

USGS2003

Selecting Great Lakes streams for lampricide treatment based on larval sea lamprey surveys

The Empiric Stream Treatment Ranking (ESTR) system is a data-driven, model-based, decision tool for selecting Great Lakes streams for treatment with lampricide, based on estimates from larval sea lamprey ( Petromyzon marinus ) surveys conducted throughout the basin. The 2000 ESTR system was described and applied to larval assessment surveys conducted from 1996 to 1999. A comparative analysis of stream survey and selection data was conducted and improvements to the stream selection process were recommended. Streams were selected for treatment based on treatment cost, predicted treatment effectiveness, and the projected number of juvenile sea lampreys produced. On average, lampricide treatments were applied annually to 49 streams with 1,075 ha of larval habitat, killing 15 million larval and 514,000 juvenile sea lampreys at a total cost of $5.3 million, and marginal and mean costs of $85 and $10 per juvenile killed. The numbers of juvenile sea lampreys killed for given treatment costs showed a pattern of diminishing returns with increasing investment. Of the streams selected for treatment, those with > 14 ha of larval habitat targeted 73% of the juvenile sea lampreys for 60% of the treatment cost. Suggested improvements to the ESTR system were to improve accuracy and precision of model estimates, account for uncertainty in estimates, include all potentially productive streams in the process (not just those surveyed in the current year), consider the value of all larvae killed during treatment (not just those predicted to metamorphose the following year), use lake-specific estimates of damage, and establish formal suppression targets.

Journal of Great Lakes Research↗

USGS2003

Estimating parasitic sea lamprey abundance in Lake Huron from heterogenous data sources

The Great Lakes Fishery Commission uses time series of transformer, parasitic, and spawning population estimates to evaluate the effectiveness of its sea lamprey ( Petromyzon marinus ) control program. This study used an inverse variance weighting method to integrate Lake Huron sea lamprey population estimates derived from two estimation procedures: 1) prediction of the lake-wide spawning population from a regression model based on stream size and, 2) whole-lake mark and recapture estimates. In addition, we used a re-sampling procedure to evaluate the effect of trading off sampling effort between the regression and mark-recapture models. Population estimates derived from the regression model ranged from 132,000 to 377,000 while mark-recapture estimates of marked recently metamorphosed juveniles and parasitic sea lampreys ranged from 536,000 to 634,000 and 484,000 to 1,608,000, respectively. The precision of the estimates varied greatly among estimation procedures and years. The integrated estimate of the mark-recapture and spawner regression procedures ranged from 252,000 to 702,000 transformers. The re-sampling procedure indicated that the regression model is more sensitive to reduction in sampling effort than the mark-recapture model. Reliance on either the regression or mark-recapture model alone could produce misleading estimates of abundance of sea lampreys and the effect of the control program on sea lamprey abundance. These analyses indicate that the precision of the lakewide population estimate can be maximized by re-allocating sampling effort from marking sea lampreys to trapping additional streams.

Journal of Great Lakes Research↗

USGS2003

Assessing assessment: Can the expected effects of the St. Marys River sea lamprey control strategy be detected?

In 1997 the Great Lakes Fishery Commission approved a 5-year (1998 to 2002) control strategy to reduce sea lamprey ( Petromyzon marinus ) production in the St. Marys River, the primary source of parasitic sea lampreys in northern Lake Huron. An assessment plan was developed to measure the success of the control strategy and decide on subsequent control efforts. The expected effects of the St. Marys River control strategy are described, the assessments in place to measure these effects are outlined, and the ability of these assessments to detect the expected effects are quantified. Several expected changes were predicted to be detectable: abundance of parasitic-phase sea lampreys and annual mortality of lake trout ( Salvelinus namaycush ) by 2001, abundance of spawning-phase sea lampreys by 2002, and relative return rates of lake trout and sea lamprey wounding rates on lake trout by 2005. Designing an effective assessment program to quantify the consequences of fishery management actions is a critical, but often overlooked ingredient of sound fisheries management.

Journal of Great Lakes Research↗

USGS1995

Limitations to lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) rehabilitation in the Great Lakes imposed by biotic interactions occurring at early life stages

We examine evidence that biotic factors, particularly predation, may be limiting early survival of wild lake trout (Salvelinus namaycush) juveniles in many areas of the Great Lakes. The Great Lakes contain numerous potential predators of lake trout eggs and fry, some of which are recent invaders, and most of which were probably absent when lake trout most recently re-invaded the Great Lakes after the last ice age. Simple quantitative models of predation suggest that plausible assumptions about prey densities, predator feeding rates, and duration of exposure of predator to prey can lead to very high estimates of predation mortality, in some instances approaching 100%. Indirect evidence from inter-Great Lake comparisons and inland lake examples also suggest that biotic factors may impede successful lake trout colonization. Our synthesis of the evidence leads to recommendations for research to better define field feeding rates of lake trout egg and fry predators and comparative studies of densities of potential egg and fry predators on lake trout spawning reefs. Management options should be designed to provide useful information as well as achieve short-term goals. From a management standpoint we recommend that: newly constructed lake trout reefs should be placed well away from concentrations of potential predators; offshore spawning reefs should be stocked; salmonine stocking, nutrient abatement, and commercial harvest of alewives should all be considered as options to enhance survival of young lake trout; hatchery lake trout should not be stocked at sites where wild lake trout are showing signs of recovery; and exotic species expansions or introductions must be curtailed to maintain or improve on our recent successes in lake trout rehabilitation.

Journal of Great Lakes Research↗