Geology topics

Michael L. Casazza

Publications and source records attributed to Michael L. Casazza.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2026

Impact of fog on California waterfowl flight activity: Historical and modern insights into effects post-Clean Air Act

Since establishment of the Clean Air Act in the early 1970s, occurrence of the dense ‘Tule Fog’, historically prevalent throughout winter across California’s Central Valley, has substantially reduced. At the same time, waterfowl body masses have generally increased. Flight is metabolically expensive, and fog visually and navigationally impairs birds in flight, likely causing them to remain aloft for longer than usual periods. If less fog results in less flight and reduced energy expenditure, then fewer winter Tule fog events could contribute to increased body masses of California waterfowl since the mid-1980’s. Therefore, we aimed to assess the relationship between waterfowl flight and fog occurrence/density with historic (1991–93) and modern (2015–23) waterfowl tracking data in the Central Valley of California (CCV). Historic tracking data showed that the probability of flight increased with increasing fog density. Birds were significantly more likely to fly in fog than when there was no fog and most likely to fly in heavy fog . Modern data showed similar responses to fog with flight occurring significantly more during dawn fog events. This relationship between improved waterfowl body mass and fewer fog events may provide an opportunity to redirect scarce funding to focus on other population requirements such as improving habitats for nesting, molting and brood rearing that are currently lacking. Unanticipated benefits of the Clean Air Act should stand as a strong recommendation to maintaining this Act into the future.

California↗

USGS2026

Waterfowl move less in heterogeneous and human-populated landscapes, with implications for spread of avian influenza viruses

Animal movements contribute to the spread of infectious diseases and are driven in part by environmental conditions. We investigated the links among the environment, animal movement, and infectious disease dynamics in waterfowl, which are among the primary wildlife hosts of avian influenza viruses. By combining telemetry data on 4606 individuals from 26 waterfowl species with data on land cover, weather, and vegetation, we found that waterfowl moved less in areas of higher land cover heterogeneity and higher human population density. Moreover, predicted waterfowl movement distances were weakly but positively correlated with distances between detections of H5N1 highly pathogenic avian influenza in wild waterfowl, suggesting that environmental conditions might contribute to the spread of this disease via their effects on bird movements. By considering wildlife movements alongside other drivers of infectious disease dynamics, such as livestock production and human mobility, we move closer to predicting outbreaks and informing interventions.

Ecology Letters↗

USGS2026

Interacting effects of human presence and landscape modification on birds and mammals

Sustainable human–wildlife coexistence requires a mechanistic understanding of the many ways that humans affect animals. However, progress is hampered by the lack of accessible data measuring the dynamic presence of people. Here, we leverage mobile-device data to disentangle how human presence and landscape modification differentially influence the use of geographic and environmental space for 37 mammal and bird species across the United States. Human presence affected more than 65% of species, with substantial variation across species. For ~60% of species that responded to human activities, the effects were interdependent—animals tended to react more strongly to human presence in less modified habitats. Our results demonstrate that human presence and landscape modification have complex combined effects on wildlife, which need to be considered for effective management.

Science↗

USGS2025

Flooded wetland availability for breeding waterfowl in a Mediterranean climate: Mapping 38 years of historical data in Suisun Marsh, California

Most managed wetlands in California are ephemeral and are purposefully flooded during the fall and winter for over-wintering waterfowl and are dry during the spring and summer waterfowl breeding season. Only semi-permanent and permanent wetlands remain flooded through the critical summer brood-rearing period for ducklings. We examined flooded wetland availability for breeding waterfowl in the brackish Suisun Marsh (California, USA) annually during the spring (April 27–May 17, during peak nesting) and summer (June 17–July 7, during peak duckling brood rearing), for a 38-year period using Landsat satellite imagery and spectral mixture analysis. Flooded wetland area increased 43% in spring and 48% in summer from 1984 to 2021 but varied among years (spring: 37.6–88.6 km 2 ; summer: 17.7–57.5 km 2 ). This increase in flooded wetland area over the past four decades was due to just a few sites, with only 24% (spring) and 15% (summer) of the 198 land-owner parcels increasing in flooded area. Flooded wetland area in the spring was unrelated to annual precipitation between October and April (range: 25–104 cm) or spring precipitation between January and April (range: 8-65 cm), whereas flooded wetland area in the summer was weakly correlated to both annual and spring precipitation. Flooded wetland area in spring and summer was also weakly correlated with the median daily outflow from the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta between March 15 and June 15, which corresponds to a critical period of wetland water management for breeding waterfowl. Our results indicate that spring and summer flooded wetland habitat for breeding waterfowl has slightly increased over the past four decades, varies annually, and is mostly dependent on local wetland management practices rather than on precipitation or Delta outflows. Managing habitats as semi-permanent wetlands would increase flooded wetland habitat in the spring and summer and provide habitat for nesting hens and ducklings.

California↗

USGS2025

Precipitation timing mediates life-stage and population-level associations with climate for an indicator species

Global climate change is contributing to declines in biodiversity, although changes vary across geographic regions and species. The iconic greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus; sage-grouse) is central to conservation within the North American sagebrush ecosystem, yet its vulnerability to climate effects remains poorly understood. We used hierarchical models to explore weather and climatic influences on sage-grouse across nearly four decades, focusing first on pattern (population change), then process (demographic life stage). We quantified eight indicators of temperature and/or moisture conditions across time lags of 0–1.5 years leading up to current year breeding activities. Sage-grouse population growth tended to increase following above-average growing season precipitation. Precipitation or drought timing influenced whether process effects were positive or negative. More summer and/or fall moisture corresponded with increases in subsequent year brood and adult survival, while concurrent seasonal drought led to reductions in nest survival. Positive concurrent spring drought associations with adult and brood survival were largely outweighed by positive prior year moisture effects. Density-dependence and indirect effects of precipitation through vegetation and forage resource pathways likely contributed to nuanced responses across life stages. Our research improves mechanistic understanding of this indicator species’ sensitivity to climatic factors, while reinforcing the importance of large-scale conservation initiatives for sagebrush ecosystems.

Scientific Reports↗

USGS2025

Host responses and viral traits interact to shape the impacts of climate warming on highly pathogenic avian influenza in migratory waterfowl

Emerging infectious diseases pose threats to wildlife populations, as exemplified by recent outbreaks of avian influenza viruses in wild birds. Climate change can affect infection dynamics in wildlife through direct effects on pathogens (e.g., environmental decay rates) and changes to host ecology, including shifting migration patterns. Here, we adapt an existing mechanistic model that couples migration and infection to study how traits of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) viruses contribute to HPAI outcomes in migratory waterfowl, then apply this model to explore potential impacts of climate change on HPAI dynamics. We find that the simulated impacts of HPAI on the host population under baseline climate conditions varied from no impact to 100% mortality, depending on viral traits. In most cases, traits related to transmission (i.e., contact rates, shedding rates) were more important for HPAI establishment probability, infection prevalence, and mortality than were other viral traits (e.g., environmental temperature sensitivity, cross-protective immunity). We then simulated the effects of climate change (i.e., altered temperature regimes) on HPAI dynamics both via viral environmental decay and via changes in bird migration phenology. In these simulations, we found that a 9-day advancement in spring migration timing increased the duration of HPAI outbreaks by increasing time birds spent at their breeding grounds, leading to higher mortality and fewer infections. In contrast, increased viral decay in warmer years had a smaller, but opposite impact. These patterns depended on the primary transmission mode of HPAI (i.e., direct vs. environmental) and its sensitivity to environmental temperatures. Together, these results suggest that climate change is likely to increase the impacts of HPAI on waterfowl populations if HPAI relies strongly on direct transmission and birds advance their spring migration. Further integrating host-viral co-evolution and other climatic changes (e.g., salinity, humidity) could provide more precise predictions of how HPAI dynamics could change in the future.

Alaska, California, Oregon↗

USGS2025

Potential impacts of 2.3.4.4b highly pathogenic H5N1 avian influenza virus infection on Snow Goose (Anser caerulescens) movement ecology

While wild waterfowl are known reservoirs of avian influenza viruses and facilitate the movement of these viruses, there are notable differences in the response to infection across species. This study explored differential responses to infection with highly pathogenic avian influenza in Snow Geese ( Anser caerulescens ) located in the California Central Valley. Though H5 antibody prevalence was high across years among birds sampled in the winter (75% in both years via hemagglutination inhibition), these values were even higher among birds sampled in summer that failed to migrate (i.e., August 2023 = 100% and August 2024 = 93% via hemagglutination inhibition). Birds that failed to migrate were also generally lighter than birds sampled in the winter and presented notable damage to cerebrum and cerebellum. In December 2022, a single individual positive for infection with H5N1 at the time of sampling indicated reduced movement during the 14 days following sampling but completed spring migration comparably with uninfected conspecifics. However, while no birds were actively infected during sampling and marking in 2023, two marked geese departed for migration late and one did not migrate at all. Additional banded birds marked in August have been reencountered in scenarios ranging from hunter harvest at a different site over a year later to found dead shortly after banding. Our data indicate that Snow Geese infected with HPAI have the potential to express variable outcomes following infection with highly pathogenic H5N1, ranging from rapid recovery within a migratory season to death. These data also suggest that the abnormal failure of some Snow Geese to migrate from the Central Valley is likely driven by HPAI infection.

California↗

USGS2025

Integrating multiple indices of habitat quality to inform habitat management for a sagebrush indicator species

Robust science is needed to inform national resource management and policy decisions. Predictive species habitat maps are frequently employed in conservation decision-making but are often based on a single metric representing habitat quality. We outlined a framework that combines multiple spatially explicit indices of potential habitat quality that could be used to identify and prioritize habitat management areas, using the greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ; hereafter sage-grouse) as an example species. Due to large-scale changes in sagebrush ecosystems, sage-grouse have suffered significant population declines in recent decades and have become key to land management plans throughout the western United States, where comprehensive habitat maps are crucial to effective conservation efforts. We evaluated habitat selection and survival patterns of sage-grouse across six distinct annual life stages and seasons to generate predictive habitat map surfaces, mapped the distribution of current occupancy, and combined maps of potential selection and survival patterns with space use and occupancy indices to delineate example habitat management categories. Our approach facilitates identification of priority areas to target for habitat preservation and areas where anthropogenic impacts could occur with likely minimal impact to the species. Overall, by combining indices representing selection, survival, and current occupancy, we provide a framework to allow for a flexible and targeted management approach that could be adapted to a wide variety of species.

California, Nevada↗

USGS2024

Examining inter-regional and intra-seasonal differences in wintering waterfowl landscape associations among Pacific and Atlantic flyways

The Central Valley of California (CVC) and Mid-Atlantic (MA) in the U.S. are both critical sites for nationwide food security, and many waterfowl species annually, especially during the winter, providing feeding and roosting locations for a variety of species. Mapping waterfowl distributions, using NEXRAD, may aid in the adaptive management of important waterfowl habitat and allow various government agencies to better understand the interface between wild and domestic birds and commercial agricultural practices. We used 9 years (2014–2023) of data from the US NEXRAD network to model winter waterfowl relative abundance in the CVC and MA as a function of weather, temporal period, environmental conditions, and landcover characteristics using boosted regression tree modelling. We were able to quantify the variability in effect size of 28 different covariates across space and time within two geographic regions which are critical to nationwide waterfowl management and host a high density of nationally important commercial agriculture. In general, weather, geographic (distance to features), and landcover condition (wetness index) predictors had the strongest relative effect on predicting wintering waterfowl relative abundance in both regions, while effects of land cover composition were more regionally and temporally specific. Increased daily mean temperature was a major predictor of increasing relative waterfowl abundance in both regions throughout the winter. Increasing precipitation had differing effects within regions, increasing relative waterfowl abundance in the MA, while decreasing in general within the CVC. Increasing relative waterfowl abundance in the CVC are strongly tied to the flooding of the landscape and rice availability, whereas waterfowl in the MA, where water is less limiting, are generally governed by waste grain availability and emergent wetland on the landscape. Waterfowl relative abundance in the MA was generally higher nearer to the Atlantic coast and lakes, while in the CVC they were higher nearer to lakes. Our findings promote a better understanding of spatial associations of waterfowl to landscape features and may aid in conservation and biosecurity management protocols.

California, Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, North ↗

USGS2024

Imperiled Great Basin terminal lakes: Synthesizing ecological and hydrological science gaps and research needs for waterbird conservation

Terminal lakes are declining globally because of human water demands, drought, and climate change. Through literature synthesis and feedback from the resource and conservation community, we review the state of research for terminal lakes in the Great Basin of the United States, which support millions of waterbirds annually, to prioritize ecological and hydrologic information needs. From an ecological perspective, research priorities include measuring the underlying differences in waterbird resource selection and distribution, migratory connectivity, abiotic factors that interact with prey densities to affect prey availability, and waterbird fitness or demography. Integrated links between water availability, water quality, and food webs are lacking in the literature. Scarce water availability data hinder the current knowledge of water extraction and evapotranspiration rates. Research that can address these priorities would help advance our understanding of how the Great Basin terminal lakes function as an interrelated system and support conservation efforts to reverse the decline of these critical lakes.

California, Nevada, Oregon, Utah↗

USGS2024

Linking resource selection to population performance spatially to identify species' habitat across broad scales: An example of greater sage-grouse in a distinct population segment

Management decisions often focus on the habitat selection of marked individuals without considering the contribution to demographic performance in selected habitats. Because habitat selection is not always adaptive, understanding the spatial relationship between habitat selection and demographic performance is critical to management decisions. Mapping both habitat selection and demographic performance for species of conservation concern can help guide population-scale conservation efforts. We demonstrate a quantitative approach to differentiate areas supporting selection and survival at large spatial extents. As a case study, we applied this approach to greater sage-grouse ( Centrocercus urophasianus ; hereafter, sage-grouse), an indicator species for sagebrush ecosystems. We evaluated both habitat selection and survival across multiple reproductive life stages (nesting, brood-rearing) in the Bi-State Distinct Population Segment, a genetically distinct and geographically isolated population of sage-grouse on the southwestern edge of the species' range. Our approach allowed us to identify both mismatches between selection and survival and trade-offs between reproductive life stages. These findings suggest resource demands vary across time, with predation risk being a dominant driver of habitat selection during nesting and early brood-rearing periods when chicks are smaller and flightless, whereas access to forage resources becomes more important during late brood rearing when resources become increasingly limited. Moving beyond identifying and managing habitat solely based on species occupancy or use by incorporating demographic measures allows managers to tailor actions to their specific goals; for example, protections of areas that support high selection and high survival and restoration actions focused on increasing survival in areas of high selection and low survival.

California, Nevada↗

USGS2024

Surveying waterfowl broods in wetlands using aerial drones

Effective waterfowl management relies on the collection of relevant demographic data to inform land management decisions; however, some types of data are difficult to obtain. For waterfowl, brood surveys are difficult to conduct because wetland habitats often obscure ducklings from being visually assessed. Here, we used Unoccupied Aerial Systems (UAS) to assess what wetland habitat characteristics influenced brood abundance in Suisun Marsh, California, USA. Using a thermal imaging camera, we surveyed 17 wetland units encompassing 332 ha of flooded area on seven waterfowl hunting clubs during the waterfowl breeding season. Additionally, using a combination of multispectral imagery collected from the UAS flights and LiDAR data from the previous year, we mapped habitat composition within each unit to relate to brood observation counts. From June 3-7, 2019, we identified 113 individual broods comprised of 827 ducklings. We found a positive relationship between the number of broods observed and the proportion of the unit that was flooded. We also found a positive relationship between the number of broods observed and the area of effective habitat, a metric of flooded habitat within a specific distance of flooded vegetation. Brood surveys using UAS could complement the traditional Breeding Population Survey and provide local managers with fine-scale and timely information regarding shifts in brood abundance in the region.

California↗

USGS2024

Body mass changes of dabbling and diving ducks wintering in California

Bird body mass is often used as an index of body condition and fluctuates throughout the year in response to environmental conditions and avian life-history events. We examined the body mass of 59,572 ducks representing 13 species (7 dabbling duck species and 6 diving duck species) harvested within the 3 regions of the Central Valley in California, USA (Sacramento Valley, Suisun Marsh, San Joaquin Valley). Data collection occurred in winter during 5 hunting seasons (2014–2015, 2015–2016, 2017–2018, 2018–2019, 2019–2020). For all species, age, and sex classes, the body mass of dabbling ducks varied temporally and was lowest at the end of the hunting season in late January, declining from the beginning of the hunting season in mid-October (northern pintail [ Anas acuta ]: −11.4% to −20.4%; northern shoveler [ Spatula clypeata ]: −3.5% to −17.3%; cinnamon teal [ Anas cyanoptera ]: −5.0% to −17.1%; American wigeon [ Mareca americana ]: −6.9% to −12.2%; American green-winged teal [ Anas carolinensis ]: −5.9% to −11.9%; mallard [ Anas platyrhynchos ]: −1.8% to −9.6%; gadwall [ Mareca strepera ]: −2.2% to −8.4%). As expected, adults (after hatch-year) were heavier than immature (hatch-year) birds (within males: 0.6–8.6%; within females: 0.1–6.6%) and males were heavier than females (within adults: 3.1–38.6%; within immatures: 5.4–33.5%) at the end of the hunting season in all species. Within dabbling duck species, body masses did not differ among regions at the beginning of the hunting season but were heavier in the Sacramento Valley (0.5–14.4%) than other areas by the end of the hunting season. In contrast, body masses of diving ducks did not vary substantially during the hunting season or among regions. Diving ducks demonstrated inconsistent changes in mass from the beginning to the end of the season (lesser scaup [ Aythya affinis ]: 3.4% to 12.3%; canvasback [ Aythya valisineria ]: 5.1% to 6.1%; bufflehead [ Bucephala albeola ]: −3.2% to 1.6%; ring-necked duck [ Aythya collaris ]: −4.9% to 2.6%; common goldeneye [ Bucephala clangula ]: −3.2% to −2.4%; ruddy duck [ Oxyura jamaicensis ]: −16.5% to 5.5%). The substantial temporal and spatial differences in dabbling duck body masses suggest that habitat quality (as measured by caloric value of the available food) or quantity may decline during winter and varies regionally within California's Central Valley.

California↗

USGS2024

Mitigating risk: Predicting H5N1 avian influenza spread with an empirical model of bird movement

Understanding timing and distribution of virus spread is critical to global commercial and wildlife biosecurity management. A highly pathogenic avian influenza virus (HPAIv) global panzootic, affecting ~600 bird and mammal species globally and over 83 million birds across North America (Dec 2023), poses a serious global threat to animals and public health. We combined a large, long-term waterfowl GPS tracking dataset (16 species) with on-ground disease surveillance data (county-level HPAIv detections) to create a novel empirical model that evaluated spatiotemporal exposure and predicted future spread and potential arrival of HPAIv via GPS tracked migratory waterfowl through 2022. Our model was effective for wild waterfowl, but predictions lagged HPAIv detections in poultry facilities and among some highly impacted non-migratory species. Our results offer critical advance warning for applied biosecurity management and planning and demonstrate the importance and utility of extensive multi-species tracking to highlight potential high-risk disease spread locations and more effectively manage outbreaks.

Transboundary and Emerging Diseases↗

USGS2024

Status of greater sage-grouse in the Bi-State Distinct Population Segment—An evaluation of population trends, habitat selection, and efficacy of conservation actions

Preface This study was completed to provide timely scientific information regarding greater sage-grouse population trends, habitat selection, and the efficacy of previous conservation actions implemented to benefit the Bi-State Distinct Population Segment (DPS). Specifically, we provide these analyses to inform the current (2024) status review and pending listing decision for the DPS being undertaken by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. These findings provide updated, detailed, and comprehensive information regarding the status of a geographically isolated and genetically distinct population of a species of high conservation concern and their habitat. Importantly, this report also provides information on the efficacy of previously implemented conservation actions targeting the Bi-State DPS in a framework that is transferable throughout the species’ range.

California, Nevada↗

USGS2024

Duckling survival increased with availability of flooded wetland habitat and decreased with salinity concentrations in a brackish marsh

Waterfowl population recruitment is sensitive to duckling survival. We quantified predator types and survival rates for Anas platyrhynchos (Mallard) and Mareca strepera (Gadwall) ducklings in one of the largest brackish water marshes in western North America (Suisun Marsh, California) using 556 radio-tagged ducklings from 284 broods tracked during the 2016 to 2019 breeding seasons. Overall, 78% of ducklings died and 84% of mortalities occurred < 7 days after hatch. After hatching in upland fields, survival was greater for broods that hatched closer to flooded wetlands; broods had a ≥ 75% chance of surviving the move from the nest to water when nests were located ≤ 140 m from the nearest wetland and ≤ 50% chance of surviving when nests were located ≥ 970 m from the nearest wetland. Predation accounted for 91% of mortalities and was attributed to mammals (27.6%), birds (22.0%), snakes (4.4%), and unknown predators (46.0%). Anas platyrhynchos survival to fledging (54 days) was only 3.2% and 0.9% during 2 drier years and 11.7% and 16.7% during 2 wetter years. Mareca strepera survival to fledging was 9.4% to 11.2% among years. Daily survival rates for ducklings generally increased with the amount of flooded wetlands within 0.5 km ( A. platyrhynchos ) and 1.0 km ( M. strepera ) of the nest at hatch. Additionally, survival rates increased with duckling age and body mass at hatch for both species and decreased with hatch date for A. platyrhynchos but not M. strepera , which may be partially due to the earlier onset of A. platyrhynchos nesting. For ducklings that survived the initial move to water, survival rates were negatively correlated with salinity and this effect was more pronounced for younger ducklings. Anas platyrhynchos survival to 7 days post hatch decreased by 9.1% (wetter year) to 31.4% (drier year) when ducklings were in 12 ppt water (99th quantile of cumulative salinity concentrations experienced by ducklings) versus 0.5 ppt water. Mareca strepera survival to 7 days decreased by 7.4% when ducklings were in 12 ppt vs. 0.5 ppt water. Our results suggest that maintaining a network of low salinity wetlands within 1 km of upland nesting sites would likely improve duckling survival rates, especially during the critical 7-day period after hatch.

California↗

USGS2024

Potential use of poultry farms by wild waterfowl in California's Central Valley varies across space, times of day, and species: implications for influenza transmission risk

Interactions between wildlife and livestock can lead to cross-species disease transmission, which incurs economic costs and threatens wildlife conservation. Wild waterfowl are natural hosts of avian influenza viruses (AIVs), are often abundant near poultry farms, and have been linked to outbreaks of AIVs in poultry. Interspecific and seasonal variation in waterfowl movement and habitat use means that the risk of disease transmission between wild birds and poultry inevitably varies across species, space, and time. Here, we used GPS telemetry data from 10 waterfowl species in and near California's Central Valley, a region where both wild waterfowl and domestic poultry are abundant, to study selection of poultry farms by waterfowl across diel, seasonal, and annual cycles. We found that waterfowl selected for wetlands, open water, protected areas, and croplands, which meant that they generally avoided habitats that were likely to be used for poultry farming. These selection patterns were linked to species' ecology and diel behavioral patterns, such that avoidance of poultry habitats was stronger for local or partial migrants than for long-distance migrants, and stronger during daytime than at night. We then combined these habitat selection results with data on poultry farm locations to map risk of waterfowl–poultry contact across the Central Valley. Average selection strength at poultry farms was low, suggesting that current placement of poultry farms is generally effective for limiting risk of contact with wild birds. When we combined these habitat selection results with data on species' abundances and AIV infection prevalence, we found dramatic variation in potential AIV transmission risk among species. These results could be used to prioritize surveillance and biosecurity efforts for regions and times of relatively high risk. More generally, these results highlight that fine-scale movement data can help identify interspecific, seasonal, and diel patterns in animal behaviors that affect wildlife and poultry health.

California↗

USGS2024

Geese migrating over the Pacific Ocean select altitudes coinciding with offshore wind turbine blades

Renewable energy facilities are a key part of mitigating climate change, but can pose threats to wild birds and bats, most often through collisions with infrastructure. Understanding collision risk and the factors affecting it can help minimize impacts on wild populations. For wind turbines, flight altitude is a major factor influencing collision risk, and altitude-selection analyses can evaluate when and why animals fly at certain altitudes under certain conditions. We used GPS tags to track Pacific Flyway geese (Pacific greater white-fronted goose, tule greater white-fronted goose and lesser snow goose) on transoceanic migrations between Alaska and the Pacific Coast of the contiguous United States, an area where offshore windfarm development is beginning. We evaluated how geographic and environmental covariates affected (1) whether birds were at rest on the water versus in flight (binomial model) and (2) altitude selection when in flight (similar to a step-selection framework). We then used a Monte Carlo simulation to predict the probability of flying at each altitude under various conditions, considering both the fly/rest decision and altitude selection. In both spring and fall, geese showed strong selection for altitudes within the expected rotor-swept zone (20–200 m asl), with 56% of locations expected to be within the rotor-swept zone under mean daylight conditions and 28% at night. This indicates a high possibility that migrating geese may be at risk of collision when passing through windfarms. Although there was some variation across subspecies, geese were most likely to be within the rotor-swept zone with little wind or light tailwinds, low clouds, little to no precipitation and moderate to cool air temperatures. Geese were unlikely to be in the rotor-swept zone at night, when most individuals were at rest on the water. Synthesis and applications . These results could be used to inform windfarm management, including decisions to shut down turbines when collision risk is high. The altitude-selection framework we demonstrate could facilitate further study of other bird species to develop a holistic view of how windfarms in this area could affect the migratory bird community as a whole.

Journal of Applied Ecology↗