Geology topics

Michael C. Duniway

Publications and source records attributed to Michael C. Duniway.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2026

Core microbiomes as a potential fingerprinting method of Western USA dust sources

Introduction: Changing frequency and intensity of dust emissions impacts ecosystems and human health. Dust carries microbes, nutrients, heavy metals, and other materials that may change environmental biogeochemistry at deposition sites. Identifying dust sources provides key information on where and when mitigation strategies should be employed. However, commonly used geochemical or isotopic tracers are often not capable of distinguishing between geographic regions. Methods: We explored whether soil bacterial communities may provide distinct fingerprints of dust sources in the western United States. We identified bacterial core communities of dust from ten locations monitored by the National Wind Erosion Research Network (NWERN) with varied land use (cropland, rangeland, and playa), and compared communities to location, soil, and regional characteristics. Samples were collected monthly from Modified Wilson and Cooke (MWAC) samplers, composited by season (spring, summer, and fall), and analyzed using 16S rRNA sequencing. Results: We found distinct bacterial core communities that reflected dust source characteristics. In order of importance, precipitation levels ( p = 0.0001), location ( p = 0.0001), soil texture ( p = 0.0001), seasonality ( p = 0.0001), and elevation (p = 0.0002) were correlated with bacterial community composition. Discussion: Distinct bacterial core communities were associated with site characteristics such as biocrusts, playas, and military base proximity. Our results suggest that the use of core microbiomes may offer a fingerprinting method to identify dust source regions.

Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, North Dakota, Oklaho↗

USGS2026

Southeastern Utah Federal lands science needs survey

Evidence-based scientific information can help support defensible decision making in the management of public lands. This report sought to identify current (2024–25) Federal agency research needs in southeastern Utah and to synthesize common management challenges and questions across jurisdictional boundaries. We implemented a science needs assessment focused on lands managed by the Bureau of Land Management (BLM), U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service (FS), and National Park Service (NPS) in southeastern Utah—the area delineated by BLM’s Canyon Country District Office, portions of the FS Manti-La Sal National Forest, and Southeast Utah Group NPS units. U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) researchers met with and surveyed BLM, NPS, and FS staff in 2024 and 2025 to understand their science needs and preferred modes of information delivery. The USGS’s approach may be unrepresentative in terms of which topic areas were addressed, but the responses nevertheless highlight challenges and high-priority research areas that could contribute positively to agency decision making. Common management challenges and areas where additional research could be beneficial to land managers include the effects of climate change, recreation effects and visitor behavior, hydrology and hydrologic changes due to anthropogenic pressures, and the capacity for inventory and monitoring across essentially all resource types. Research on site-specific restoration techniques and their outcomes was also a common theme. In this report we discuss ways in which researchers can increase the extent to which their work could be actionable for resource managers and provide suggestions for potential priority research areas for the study region.

Utah↗

USGS2026

Alternative approaches to dryland reclamation enhance vegetation cover and soil stability at a former uranium mine

Introduction Conventional reclamation methods to recover dryland ecosystems after mineral extraction often have low success. Alternative reclamation techniques may help overcome the many challenges to establishing persistent native vegetation and stable soils. Objectives Compare conventional reclamation approaches that focus primarily on soil stabilization to alternative approaches that may improve native ecosystem restoration at the Kanab North Mine in northern Arizona. Methods In a fully crossed experiment, conventional seed mix (native and non-native species) and seeding methods (drill-seeding) were compared to alternative practices, including a native-only seed mix, connectivity modifiers (ConMods) with hand seeding, and a biocrust inoculation. Restoration metrics like plant establishment, species composition, soil surface cover and stability, biocrust establishment, and near-surface wind-driven sediment were monitored over the first 5 years post-reclamation. Results While all restoration metrics improved with time, compared to traditional methods, ConMods increased total, graminoid, and native plant species cover, and the native-only seed mix increased woody, native, and perennial species cover. Biocrust inoculation increased late-successional biocrust development, but biocrusts only persisted over 5 years in combination with ConMods. Soil stability increased in all treatments, but both ConMods and biocrust inoculation increased stability compared to traditional practices. Conclusion Overall, alternative approaches to reclamation tested here (ConMods, native seed, and biocrust inoculation) were more effective than traditional practices at increasing total plant cover, facilitating biocrust establishment, and promoting soil stability after uranium mine reclamation.

Arizona↗

USGS2026

Building resilience in dryland ecosystems: A climate adaptation strategy menu for pinyon–juniper woodlands

Pinyon–juniper (PJ) woodlands, one of the most extensive mature and old-growth woodland types in the Western United States, provide critical ecological, cultural, and economic benefits but face increasing threats from climate change, altered disturbance regimes, invasive species, and pests. We developed the PJ Woodland Climate Adaptation Management Menu, a decision support tool designed to guide adaptive, climate-informed management of PJ ecosystems, particularly within the Colorado Plateau ecoregion. The menu was created through an iterative, collaborative process involving literature review, integration of strategies from existing adaptation frameworks, and extensive input from scientists, land managers, and community partners during workshops and focus groups. The menu links specific, evidence-based approaches to each of six broad strategies, including soliciting community input, mitigating disturbance, enhancing and maintaining biodiversity, conserving ecotones, timing actions for optimal outcomes, and accepting climate-driven changes when appropriate. It is intended for use with the Adaptation Workbook to help managers connect local goals and climate vulnerabilities to tailored management tactics. Hypothetical scenarios demonstrate the menu’s application to contrasting PJ woodland conditions, from die-off events to old-growth maintenance. Lessons learned during development underscore the value of early stakeholder engagement, cross-sector collaboration, and balancing diverse ecological objectives. This menu offers a flexible, transferable framework to strengthen climate resilience in PJ woodlands and serves as a model that could improve adaptation planning in other dryland forest ecosystems.

Forests↗

USGS2026

A picture is worth a thousand plants: Using historic and repeat photography to quantify long-term change in drylands on the Colorado Plateau

This study analyzes over a century of plant community change on the Colorado Plateau (CP) using repeat photography (1910–2016) and various GIS (Geographic Information Systems) data. We examined 338 repeat photo pairs across three dominant vegetation communities: CP Blackbrush-Mormon-tea Shrubland (CP Blackbrush), Inter-Mountain Basins Semi-Desert Grassland and Big Sagebrush Shrubland (IM grasslands) and CP Pinyon-Juniper Woodland/Shrubland (PJ Woodland). Vegetation changes, including plant counts, plant size, patch shifts, patch size and live plant cover, were evaluated against photo pair time span and spatial covariates, including climate, topography, soil characteristics and land-use history using logistic regression. Responses varied significantly by community type, driven by interacting factors such as time since domestic grazing cessation, climate conditions, and geomorphic setting. CP Blackbrush and IM grasslands showed recovery with longer time since grazing cessation, with increases in plant numbers, patch size, and cover. PJ Woodlands showed mixed, context dependent responses. All communities exhibited increased growth on alluvial landforms, likely from deeper soils and better water availability. Human disturbances lead to a higher probability of patch shifts in CP Blackbrush and IM grasslands. These findings underscore utility of long-term datasets for understanding dryland ecosystem dynamics and highlight how land-use history, climate and geomorphology can inform conservation efforts on dryland ecosystems.

Colorado, Utah↗

USGS2026

Vegetation cover and composition in environments surrounding uranium mines in the Grand Canyon ecosystem, Northern Arizona

Mining uranium from breccia-pipe deposits in the greater Grand Canyon region has occurred since the mid-1900s. However, possible ecosystem contamination with harmful levels of radionuclides may have occurred due to mining activities in the 21st century. In response, a 20-year Federal moratorium on new mining claims in the Grand Canyon watershed was initiated in 2012, to allow time to evaluate the potential effects of uranium exploration and mining on human health, wildlife, and water resources. This moratorium, nor the 2023 designation of the “Baaj Nwaavjo I’tah Kukveni–Ancestral Footprints of the Grand Canyon National Monument,” precludes operation or development of mining claims predating 2012. Vegetation is a core ecosystem component that may be affected by uranium mining (for instance, through uptake and storage of radionuclides from the air or soil) or may act as a vector of exposure to wildlife, livestock, and humans (for instance, via their consumption of contaminated plant tissues). To provide baseline information about the plant communities associated with uranium mines in the Grand Canyon region, the U.S. Geological Survey surveyed an approximately 200-meter-wide buffer surrounding four breccia-pipe deposits, each in a unique stage of mine development, and at one reference area (a livestock water tank) that underwent ground disturbance but contains no mineral deposits. We sectioned the buffer zones into 0.65–4.52 hectare plots, within which we (1) inventoried all plant species, (2) measured percent cover of plant species, plant functional groups, and ground surface types (dark cyanobacteria, lichen, moss, bedrock, rock, embedded litter, duff, plant bases, and bare soil) using line-point intercept, and (3) measured length and frequency of gaps between perennial plant canopies using canopy gap intercept. We found that plant composition at the mines and the reference area differed from one another but were all characteristic of expected regional vegetation patterns. We provide this data summary as potential baseline information for future research and management efforts.

Arizona↗

USGS2026

Vulnerability of different Colorado Plateau land types to drivers of change

Public lands are challenged by a range of pressures—changing climate, increasing visitation, resource extraction—and their effects can span spatial scales, often crossing land management jurisdictional boundaries. Research approaches which explicitly span jurisdictions can support strategies to contend with regional pressures. We assess management-relevant drivers of change—aridification, livestock grazing, invasive species, surface disturbance, and fire—across a patchwork of land management units and agencies on the Colorado Plateau, focusing on southeastern Utah, USA. We use vulnerability analysis, first evaluating exposure to drivers across the landscape, then quantifying sensitivity to each driver across different land types, defined by mapped Ecological Site Groups, a system for classifying landscapes according to physical factors including climate, soils, and topographic setting. We address the questions: 1) how are drivers spatially distributed across the study region; and, 2) based on exposure and sensitivity, are certain land types more vulnerable to these drivers? We find that the study region has high exposure and sensitivity—and thus high vulnerability—to aridification and grazing, but low exposure and vulnerability to other drivers. Although more sensitive land types were not generally more exposed, identifying which areas are most sensitive can guide adaptive measures, like where new uses or disturbances would be least harmful and which areas could be prioritized for restoration. The method we demonstrate is a flexible tool for assessing landscape-scale impacts, is built on nationally available datasets, and can be tailored to different datasets and sensitivity metrics.

Utah↗

USGS2026

Assessing pinyon-juniper mortality across Southeast Utah Group National Parks

Pinyon-Juniper (PJ) communities that include woodlands, savannas, and closed canopy forests, cover an extensive area of 100 million acres across the western U.S. and are critically important for providing a wide range of resources for humans and habitat for plants and animals, including numerous endemic and imperiled species such as the pinyon jay (Hartsell et al. 2019). Despite their importance, pinyon and juniper trees have experienced recent dieback events due to drought, aridification, and insect outbreaks (Fig. 1). For example, the 2002 – 2003 drought that covered much of the southwestern U.S. resulted in widespread pinyon mortality (Breshears et al. 2005), and more recently the 2017 – 2018 drought caused juniper dieback on the Colorado Plateau (Campbell et al. 2020), including Southeastern Utah Group (SEUG) parks. We used funding from CNHA and protocols jointly developed by the USGS and NPS SEUG to assess tree structure and condition in the field, and then scaled up evaluation of dieback using aerial and satellite imagery across Arches and Canyonlands National Parks and Natural Bridges National Monument.

Utah↗

USGS2025

Sentinel-2 based estimates of rangeland fractional cover and canopy gap class for the western United States

Rangelands are extensive ecosystems, providing important ecosystem services while undergoing continuous change. As a result, improved monitoring technologies can help better characterize vegetation change. Satellite remote sensing has proven effective in this regard, tracking vegetation dynamics at broad and fine scales. We leveraged the spatial, spectral, and temporal resolution of Sentinel-2 satellites to estimate fractional cover and canopy gap across rangelands of the western United States. We produced annual, 10 m spatial resolution estimates of fractional cover and canopy gap size class for years 2018 to 2024. Fractional cover estimates include that of common plant functional types (annual forb and grass, bareground, littler, perennial forb and grass, shrub, tree) and select genera (including invasive annual grass species, pinyon-juniper species, and sagebrush species); canopy gap size classes include gap sizes 25 to 50, 51 to 100, 101 to 200, and greater than 200 cm. We make these data available as Cloud Optimized GeoTIFFs, organized as 75 × 75 km tiles covering the 17 western states of the United States.

western United States↗

USGS2025

Season, wind speed, and seasonal rain are major drivers of a regional aeolian sediment transport model

Wind erosion and sediment transport continue to increase in many parts of the world, leading to decreased soil quality, accelerated snow-melt, respiratory diseases, and traffic accidents. The processes that control sediment transport are well understood at small scales of mm to m but are less well understood at larger scales of km to hundreds of km. Here we test four approaches aimed at improving the variance explained in sediment transport measured in a network of 52 horizontal sediment flux collecting devices located on the Colorado Plateau, USA. First, switching from a regression tree to random forest statistical analysis increased the variance in sediment transport explained from 58% to 91%. Soil moisture as a single variable explained 52% of variation in sediment flux, but had a negligible effect on a random forest model with season (Winter, Spring, Summer), wind speed, and seasonal total precipitation. Similarly, adding four years of new data to an existing five-year dataset or adding measurements of soil roughness and grazing failed to improve variance explained. By explaining 91% of the variance in sediment transport, our model provides baseline model for understanding sediment transport on the landscape scale. Dust flux networks in new regions would likely need to collect at least 300-500 samples to describe variation in sediment transport values using random forest analyses of the effects of season, wind speed, seasonal rain and vegetation type.

Colorado, Utah↗

USGS2025

Mapping ecological states in the upper Colorado River basin: Implications for fire management

Spatially explicit information on ecosystem dynamics that offers a mechanistic understanding of ecological processes can benefit environmental management. Broad-scale maps based on state-and-transition models provide valuable insight into transitions among ecological states resulting from specific drivers within areas sharing similar climatic and edaphic characteristics ecological sites (ES). We aimed to quantify ecological dynamics of two ES groups in the Upper Colorado River Basin from 1986 to 2022 through annual maps of ecological states and assess potential drivers of observed state change. This region comprises important sagebrush shrublands and pinyon-juniper woodlands affected by non-native annual grass invasion, wildfires, and drought-induced tree mortality. Using field-based and remote sensing data, we modeled vegetation states using random forest models and mapped the states annually from 1986 to 2022. To demonstrate the utility of the state maps for monitoring and management, we used this time series of maps to investigate the influences of fire and drought on state occurrence. Our findings revealed a statistically significant increase in states invaded by non-native annual species (Invaded state), which replaced Grassland and Shrubland states, while Shrubland states decreased significantly, transitioning to invaded and Woodland states. Invaded states had the highest likelihood of burning, followed by Woodlands. Drought was associated with increased area of Grassland and Bare states, but with decreased area of invaded and Shrubland states. These results indicate an accelerating fire cycle is potentially leading to ongoing regional environmental degradation. Despite increasing drought conditions during the study period, the invaded states continued to increase in area, indicating additional underlying mechanisms. Our reproducible, broad-scale, ecologically-driven state mapping process enhances understanding of how drought, fire, and invasion by non-native plants can transform semiarid landscapes of the western USA.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming↗

USGS2025

Soil moisture partitioning between under canopy and interspace environments in shrublands of the northern Chihuahuan Desert

Soil moisture is a key link between hydrologic and ecologic processes in desert shrublands. Understanding how soil moisture is spatially distributed in desert shrublands provides valuable insights into how shrubs use and impact limiting water resources, and how shrublands may respond to future meteorological and climate change. Our goals were to determine how soil moisture is partitioned between soil volumes under canopies and in the bare soil interspaces across multiple desert shrublands, and to evaluate the roles of physical soil properties, shrub-type characteristics, meteorology, and measurement resolution in influencing and observing variation in soil moisture partitioning. Utilizing two long-term soil moisture datasets (monthly resolution, 30 years, whole soil profile measurements; and 30 min resolution, 10 years, 10–30 cm measurements), we compared soil moisture partitioning across nine northern Chihuahuan Desert shrubland sites (three sites dominated by creosotebush [ Larrea tridentata ], three by honey mesquite [ Prosopis glandulosa ], and three by tarbush [ Flourensia cernua ]) in the Jornada Basin, southern New Mexico, USA. Over 30 years, monthly, whole profile data showed that soil moisture in mesquite shrublands was consistently higher in bare soil interspaces compared to under canopies, whereas soil moisture under and between shrubs was more similar in creosotebush and tarbush shrublands. Physical soil properties were linked as explanatory variables of long-term soil moisture partitioning (monthly whole profile dataset), whereas 30-minute data showed that shorter-term periods of higher precipitation promoted greater near surface soil moisture (10–30 cm) in bare soil interspaces that was not captured at monthly time steps. Thus, although the long-term average partitioning of soil moisture in these shrublands is strongly controlled by soil physical properties, soil moisture partitioning varies at shorter timescales (daily to weekly) in response to precipitation events. Moreover, shrub-type characteristics influenced soil moisture partitioning, with dense and tall mesquite shrubs having lower under canopy soil moisture than tarbush, and root architecture potentially influencing partitioning across creosotebush sites. These results illustrate diversity in soil moisture partitioning both between and within shrublands of the northern Chihuahuan Desert, and elucidate how physical soil properties, shrub-type characteristics, and meteorological variation interact to shape their soil moisture dynamics.

New Mexico↗

USGS2025

Optimizing the effectiveness of connectivity modifiers to reduce dryland degradation

Dryland degradation from unsustainable land use and increasing aridity often manifests as bare, interconnected areas that facilitate the loss or redistribution of resources (soil, seeds, and nutrients) through wind and run-off. Physical structures like branches and stick bundles, which disrupt these pathways and retain resources, are crucial for rehabilitation and restoration. Connectivity modifiers or ConMods, which are galvanized mesh structures that mimic low stature vegetation, are tools specifically designed to interrupt connected pathways and help reinforce overall site stability. Yet, how to effectively and consistently use ConMods to achieve site stability has not been thoroughly tested. Here, we used the Aeolian EROsion model to investigate the combined effects of ConMod height, porosity, and spacing on simulated horizontal sediment flux, a key indicator of site stability. We assessed ConMod performance as percent reduction in predicted sediment flux versus a bare, unvegetated 10,000 m 2 area for a range of horizontal sediment flux. Additionally, in a field experiment, ConMods increased litter retention by up to 15.6 mm compared to bare ground plots, demonstrating their potential to enhance both soil stabilization and resource retention. These findings underscore the potential of ConMods as flexible, cost-effective tools that interrupt positive feedbacks to degradation and provide measurable benchmarks for restoration success.

Utah↗

USGS2025

Flexible phenology of a C4 grass linked to resiliency to seasonal and multiyear drought events in the American southwest

Rising temperatures are predicted to further limit dryland water availability as droughts become more intense and frequent and seasonal precipitation patterns shift. Vegetation drought stress may increase mortality and cause declines and delays in phenological events, thereby impacting species' capacity to persist and recover from extreme drought conditions. We compare phenological responses of two common dryland perennial grass species, Achnatherum hymenoides (C 3 ) and Pleuraphis jamesii (C 4 ), to 4 years of experimentally imposed precipitation drought treatments (cool season, warm season, ambient), followed by 2 years of recovery on the Colorado Plateau, United States of America. Tagged individual grasses from both species were monitored biweekly and assessed for phenological metrics and mortality. The C 3 grass exhibited less phenological flexibility to both seasonal and interannual drought conditions and experienced high rates of mortality, thus reducing resiliency. Conversely, the C 4 grass showed more phenological plasticity during imposed drought treatments, with treatment effects diminishing in the two-year recovery period during a severe ambient drought. Synthesis: Results suggest that plant photosynthetic strategies may impact plant resistance and resiliency to drought. Here, C 3 grass populations may decline, potentially shifting cool dryland ecosystems into a system comprised predominantly of warm-season adapted species.

Utah↗

USGS2025

Mapping predicted ecological states at landscape scales using remote sensing data and machine learning

Dryland ecosystems, covering 45% of the Earth's land and supporting over one-third of the global population, face significant threats from land degradation and ecological state change. Managing these ecosystems is complex, and science-based frameworks like Ecological Site Descriptions and state-and-transition models are essential tools for guiding decisions to support ecological health while maintaining stakeholder values such as grazing, wildlife, and recreation. However, alignment of these frameworks with smaller scale soil survey maps limits their applicability to broader ecological processes. Here, we extend these frameworks to larger landscapes with a machine learning approach that integrates large-scale, high-resolution vegetation data with identified ecological states from a data-driven state-and-transition model developed for a landscape-scale Ecological Site Group. A “global” model, which used combined inputs from multiple remotely sensed datasets, outperformed individual dataset models based on evaluation with independent data. Ecological state maps generated through this approach broaden the utility of state-and-transition models across Ecological Site Groups, providing a more spatially robust tool for land management at watershed and larger landscape scales. These methods, and the associated ecological state maps, can help meet critical needs for improved land condition assessments that support development of resource management plans and help identify priority areas for restoration and conservation.

Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Utah, Wyoming↗

USGS2025

Optimizing sampling across transect-based methods improves the power of agroecological monitoring data

Transect-based monitoring has long been a valuable tool in ecosystem monitoring to measure multiple ecosystem attributes. The line-point intercept (LPI), vegetation height, and canopy gap intercept methods comprise a set of core methods, which provide indicators of ecosystem condition. However, users often struggle to design a sampling strategy that optimizes the ability to detect ecological change using transect-based methods. We assessed the sensitivity of each of these core methods to transect length, number, and sampling interval in 1-ha plots to determine: (1) minimum sampling required to describe ecosystem characteristics and detect change; and (2) optimal transect length and number to make recommendations for future analyses and monitoring efforts. We used data from 13 National Wind Erosion Research Network locations, including five LTAR sites, spanning the western United States, which included 151 plot sampling events over time across five biomes. We found that longer and increased replicates of transects were more important for reducing sampling error than increased sample intensity along fewer transects per plot. For all methods and indicators across biomes plots, three 100-m transects reduced sampling error such that indicator estimates fell within a 95% confidence interval of ±5% for canopy gap intercept and LPI-total foliar cover, ±5 cm for height, and ±2 species for LPI-species counts. For the same criteria at 80% confidence intervals, two 100-m transects are needed. Site-scale inference was strongly affected by sample design, consequently our understanding of ecological dynamics may be influenced by sampling decisions.

western United States↗

USGS2025

Quantifying regional ecological dynamics using agency monitoring data, ecological site descriptions, and ecological site groups

Information about what ecological conditions are likely, causes or drivers of degradation, and potential management actions to restore degraded lands may support land conservation and restoration decisions. State-and-transition models (STMs) describe persistent plant and ecological conditions that are possible (the “state”) within a given abiotic setting and drivers or actions that can cause shifts between states (the “transitions”). These primarily conceptual models are widely used to inform resource and conservation decisions. Data-driven STMs have been developed for some lands, but not at regional or national scales. Here, we demonstrate a new repeatable workflow for developing data-driven STMs in the United States (US). The approach leverages predictive maps of Ecological Site Groups (ESGs), extensive field-based Federal monitoring databases, information from Ecological Site Description (ESD) STMs, soil erosion models, remotely sensed productivity, and other available spatial information (fire, land protection, and drought) to provide context and descriptions of the data-driven states, including likely drivers of transitions. Results of this workflow applied to one dryland ESG in the Upper Colorado River Basin in the southwestern US suggest that an Invaded state (16% of 1352 plots) and some occurrences of a Grassland state (30% of plots) are in a degraded or at-risk condition with reduced ecosystem services. The most common drivers of state transitions in the associated ESDs ( n = 26) are related to livestock grazing and fire. The Invaded state in the ESG has evidence of degraded habitat quality and accelerated run-off while the Grassland state occurrences show reduced richness, productivity, and elevated erosion risk by wind. Areas subject to wildfire and with lower protection status had greater probability of Invaded state occurrence, generally supporting drivers in ESDs. The workflow presented here can serve as a template for describing ecological dynamics at regional scales, and support prioritization of land for conservation and climate adaptation activities.

Rangeland Ecology & Management↗

USGS2025

Shifts in suitability of pinyon-juniper communities: A climate adaptation framework for range-wide management of arid woodland resources

Pinyon-juniper (PJ) woodlands are a diverse ecosystem type providing a wealth of ecosystem services across western North America. Managing PJ woodlands in the 21st century entails balancing multiple conservation objectives, and resource managers and policy-makers working to sustain PJ woodlands need spatially explicit information about current PJ woodland conditions and how they may be impacted in coming decades in the context of wildfire risk and changing climate. Here, we address knowledge gaps and provide information that improves the long-term value of conservation and restoration actions in PJ woodlands. To this end, we merged projections of future environmental suitability for nine PJ species with wildfire risk and locations of mature and old-growth (MOG) woodlands to assess spatial variation in PJ woodlands with differing threats and management opportunities. We identified potential climate refugia with enduring high community suitability and low burn probability (3 % of study area ) that may persist with relatively little management. We found promising locations of PJ-MOG forest type with high future suitability (12 % of areas) that could be prioritized for fire risk reduction to maintain high-value woodlands. Despite a 38 % mean community suitability decline under future climate conditions, some locations (7 % of areas) may act as climate refugia where future climate conditions can support current PJ woodland composition and structure. We conclude by demonstrating how this information can be integrated into a conceptual framework to help prioritize conservation and climate adaptation in PJ woodlands.

western North America↗