Geology topics

Mathew Barlow

Publications and source records attributed to Mathew Barlow.

6 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2017

A physical model for extreme drought over southwest Asia

The socioeconomic difficulties of southwest Asia, defined as the area bound by the domain 25°N–40°N and 40°E–70°E, are exacerbated by extreme precipitation deficits during the November–April rainy season. The precipitation deficits during many southwest Asia droughts have been examined in terms of the forcing by climate variability originating over the Pacific Ocean as a result of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific decadal variability (PDV), and the long-term warming of Pacific (LT) sea surface temperatures (SST). Here we examine how the most extreme November–April southwest Asia droughts relate to global SSTs and the associated large-scale atmospheric circulation anomalies and analyze the specific atmospheric forcing mechanisms responsible for changes in regional southwest Asian precipitation. The driest November–April seasons during 1948–2012 over southwest Asia are forced by subsidence and reductions of moisture fluxes as a result of the interaction of the mean flow with anomalous zonally symmetric high pressure throughout the Northern Hemisphere. The anomalous zonally symmetric high pressure throughout the Northern Hemisphere occurs simultaneously with cool central and eastern Pacific SST anomalies associated with La Niña and the negative phase of PDV and a warm west Pacific Ocean caused in part by the long-term warming of the west Pacific Ocean.

Book chapter↗

USGS2015

The forcing of southwestern Asia teleconnections by low-frequency sea surface temperature variability during boreal winter

Southwestern Asia, defined here as the domain bounded by 20°–40°N and 40°–70°E, which includes the nations of Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, and Pakistan, is a water-stressed and semiarid region that receives roughly 75% of its annual rainfall during November–April. The November–April climate of southwestern Asia is strongly influenced by tropical Indo-Pacific variability on intraseasonal and interannual time scales, much of which can be attributed to sea surface temperature (SST) variations. The influences of lower-frequency SST variability on southwestern Asia climate during November–April Pacific decadal SST (PDSST) variability and the long-term trend in SST (LTSST) is examined. The U.S. Climate Variability and Predictability Program (CLIVAR) Drought Working Group forced global atmospheric climate models with PDSST and LTSST patterns, identified using empirical orthogonal functions, to show the steady atmospheric response to these modes of decadal to multidecadal SST variability. During November–April, LTSST forces an anticyclone over southwestern Asia, which results in reduced precipitation and increases in surface temperature. The precipitation and tropospheric circulation influences of LTSST are corroborated by independent observed precipitation and circulation datasets during 1901–2004. The decadal variations of southwestern Asia precipitation may be forced by PDSST variability, with two of the three models indicating that the cold phase of PDSST forces an anticyclone and precipitation reductions. However, there are intermodel circulation variations to PDSST that influence subregional precipitation patterns over the Middle East, southwestern Asia, and subtropical Asia. Changes in wintertime temperature and precipitation over southwestern Asia forced by LTSST and PDSST imply important changes to the land surface hydrology during the spring and summer.

Journal of Climate↗

USGS2014

La Niña diversity and Northwest Indian Ocean Rim teleconnections

The differences in tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) expressions of El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events of the same phase have been linked with different global atmospheric circulation patterns. This study examines the dynamical forcing of precipitation during October–December (OND) and March–May (MAM) over East Africa and during December–March (DJFM) over Central-Southwest Asia for 1950–2010 associated with four tropical Pacific SST patterns characteristic of La Niña events, the cold phase of ENSO. The self-organizing map method along with a statistical distinguishability test was used to isolate La Niña events, and seasonal precipitation forcing was investigated in terms of the tropical overturning circulation and thermodynamic and moisture budgets. Recent La Niña events with strong opposing SST anomalies between the central and western Pacific Ocean (phases 3 and 4), force the strongest global circulation modifications and drought over the Northwest Indian Ocean Rim. Over East Africa during MAM and OND, subsidence is forced by an enhanced tropical overturning circulation and precipitation reductions are exacerbated by increases in moisture flux divergence. Over Central-Southwest Asia during DJFM, the thermodynamic forcing of subsidence is primarily responsible for precipitation reductions, with moisture flux divergence acting as a secondary mechanism to reduce precipitation. Eastern Pacific La Niña events in the absence of west Pacific SST anomalies (phases 1 and 2), are associated with weaker global teleconnections, particularly over the Indian Ocean Rim. The weak regional teleconnections result in statistically insignificant precipitation modifications over East Africa and Central-Southwest Asia.

Climate Dynamics↗

USGS2014

Disruptions of El Niño–Southern Oscillation teleconnections by the Madden–Julian Oscillation

The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the leading mode of interannual variability, with global impacts on weather and climate that have seasonal predictability. Research on the link between interannual ENSO variability and the leading mode of intraseasonal variability, the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO), has focused mainly on the role of MJO initiating or terminating ENSO. We use observational analysis and modeling to show that the MJO has an important simultaneous link to ENSO: strong MJO activity significantly weakens the atmospheric branch of ENSO. For weak MJO conditions relative to strong MJO conditions, the average magnitude of ENSO-associated tropical precipitation anomalies increases by 63%, and the strength of hemispheric teleconnections increases by 58%. Since the MJO has predictability beyond three weeks, the relationships shown here suggest that there may be subseasonal predictability of the ENSO teleconnections to continental circulation and precipitation.

Geophysical Research Letters↗

USGS2013

The regional forcing of Northern hemisphere drought during recent warm tropical west Pacific Ocean La Niña events

Northern Hemisphere circulations differ considerably between individual El Niño-Southern Oscillation events due to internal atmospheric variability and variation in the zonal location of sea surface temperature forcing over the tropical Pacific Ocean. This study examines the similarities between recent Northern Hemisphere droughts associated with La Niña events and anomalously warm tropical west Pacific sea surface temperatures during 1988–1989, 1998–2000, 2007–2008 and 2010–2011 in terms of the hemispheric-scale circulations and the regional forcing of precipitation over North America and Asia during the cold season of November through April. The continental precipitation reductions associated with recent central Pacific La Niña events were most severe over North America, eastern Africa, the Middle East and southwest Asia. High pressure dominated the entire Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes and weakened and displaced storm tracks northward over North America into central Canada. Regionally over North America and Asia, the position of anomalous circulations within the zonal band of mid-latitude high pressure varied between each La Niña event. Over the northwestern and southeastern United States and southern Asia, the interactions of anomalous circulations resulted in consistent regional temperature advection, which was subsequently balanced by similar precipitation-modifying vertical motions. Over the central and northeastern United States, the spatial variation of anomalous circulations resulted in modest inter-seasonal temperature advection variations, which were balanced by varying vertical motion and precipitation patterns. Over the Middle East and eastern Africa, the divergence of moisture and the advection of dry air due to anomalous circulations enhanced each of the droughts.

Climate Dynamics↗

USGS2008

Warming of the Indian Ocean threatens eastern and southern African food security but could be mitigated by agricultural development

Since 1980, the number of undernourished people in eastern and southern Africa has more than doubled. Rural development stalled and rural poverty expanded during the 1990s. Population growth remains very high, and declining per-capita agricultural capacity retards progress toward Millennium Development goals. Analyses of in situ station data and satellite observations of precipitation have identified another problematic trend: main growing-season rainfall receipts have diminished by ???15% in food-insecure countries clustered along the western rim of the Indian Ocean. Occurring during the main growing seasons in poor countries dependent on rain-fed agriculture, these declines are societally dangerous. Will they persist or intensify? Tracing moisture deficits upstream to an anthropogenically warming Indian Ocean leads us to conclude that further rainfall declines are likely. We present analyses suggesting that warming in the central Indian Ocean disrupts onshore moisture transports, reducing continental rainfall. Thus, late 20th-century anthropogenic Indian Ocean warming has probably already produced societally dangerous climate change by creating drought and social disruption in some of the world's most fragile food economies. We quantify the potential impacts of the observed precipitation and agricultural capacity trends by modeling 'millions of undernourished people' as a function of rainfall, population, cultivated area, seed, and fertilizer use. Persistence of current tendencies may result in a 50% increase in undernourished people by 2030. On the other hand, modest increases in per-capita agricultural productivity could more than offset the observed precipitation declines. Investing in agricultural development can help mitigate climate change while decreasing rural poverty and vulnerability. ?? 2008 by The National Academy of Sciences of the USA.

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of↗