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Mark L. Wildhaber

Publications and source records attributed to Mark L. Wildhaber.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

Exploring genetic variation and population structure in a threatened species, Noturus placidus, with whole-genome sequence data

The Neosho madtom ( Noturus placidus ) is a small catfish, generally less than 3 inches in length, unique to the Neosho-Spring River system within the Arkansas River Basin. It was federally listed as threatened in 1990, largely due to habitat loss. For conservation efforts, we generated whole-genome sequence data from 10 Neosho madtom individuals originating from 3 geographically separated populations to evaluate genetic diversity and population structure. A Neosho madtom genome was de novo assembled, and genome size and content were assessed. Single nucleotide polymorphisms were assessed from de Bruijn graphs, and via reference alignment with both the channel catfish ( Ictalurus punctatus) reference genome and Neosho madtom reference genome. Principal component analysis and structure analysis indicated weak population structure, suggesting fish from the 3 locations represent a single population. Using a novel method, genome-wide conservation and divergence between the Neosho madtom, channel catfish, and zebrafish ( Danio rerio ) was assessed by pairwise contig alignment, which demonstrated that genes important to embryonic development frequently had conserved sequences. This research in a threatened species with no previously published genomic resources provides novel genetic information to guide current and future conservation efforts and demonstrates that using whole-genome sequencing provides detailed information of population structure and demography using only a limited number of rare and valuable samples.

Arkansas, Kansas, Missouri, Oklahoma↗

Migration and energetics model predicts delayed migration and likely starvation in oiled waterbirds

Oil spills can inflict mortality and injury on bird populations; many of these deaths involve starvation resulting from thermoregulatory costs incurred by oiling of birds’ feathers. However, the fates and responses of sublethally oiled birds are poorly known. Due to this knowledge gap and the potential for birds to die far from the spill site, resource risk and injury assessors need tools to make informed estimates for delayed deaths and lost reproductive capacity in these birds. Focusing on the thermoregulatory cost of oiled feathers, we present a model addressing one facet of the effects of sublethal oiling on birds. Using mallard-like ducks as a model organism, we combined values from previous laboratory studies of oiled birds with a modified version of an existing temperature-influenced avian migration energetics model. Using this model, we examined the potential effects of oiling on general migration patterns, changes in energetic gains required to compensate for oiling, and starvation. We assessed all metrics across multiple oiling severities; we assessed starvation across both oiling severity and body condition. Median estimates for delays in spring migration were one to two months for trace and lightly oiled birds, and we predicted arrested spring migration in moderately oiled birds. Median estimates of required increases in energetic gains to offset costs of increased thermoregulation ranged from 20.3% to 88.6% depending on severity of oiling. We predicted starvation within four weeks for most combinations of oiling severity and body condition at the median predicted minimum wintering temperature of unoiled birds (-4.9°C). However, at the average winter temperature of the southernmost model latitude (10.8°C), we predicted only moderately oiled birds in less-than-excellent body condition had the potential to starve within a four-week time frame. Due to the potential for even trace oiling to delay spring migration and decrease body condition, the thermoregulatory costs of sublethal oiling during spring migration could reduce a bird's reproductive capacity. Future research integrating this initial energetics-based model into a spatially explicit, population scale migration model could provide additional insight into the potential effects of sublethal oiling on reproduction and survival. Such an integrated model could strengthen risk predictions and injury assessments for birds subjected to sublethal oiling.

Ecological Modelling↗

Enumerating white-tailed deer using unmanned aerial vehicles

The white‐tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ) is an ecologically important species in forests of North America. Effective management of forests requires accurate, precise estimates of deer population abundance to plan and justify management actions. Spotlight surveys in combination with distance sampling are a common method of estimating deer population abundance; however, spotlight surveys are known to have serious drawbacks such as high costs and sampling biases. Therefore, we tested the effectiveness of enumerating deer from unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) flights, conducted 1 and 6 March 2018, to develop population and density estimates in 2 United States National Parks: Harpers Ferry National Historic Park (HAFE) and Monocacy National Battlefield (MONO). Concurrent spotlight surveys at MONO enabled us to compare estimates obtained by the 2 methods. Deer density estimates by 4 observers of UAV‐obtained thermal imagery from HAFE were 94.5 ± 3.9 deer/km 2 . Concurrent UAV and spotlight surveys at MONO found 19.7 ± 0.5 deer/km 2 and 6.4 ± 4.9 deer/km 2 , respectively; suggesting that spotlight surveys may significantly underestimate deer densities. Despite the logistical challenges to UAV operation, our findings demonstrate that UAVs will become an invaluable tool for wildlife management as technology improves. © 2021 The Wildlife Society. This article has been contributed to by US Government employees and their work is in the public domain in the USA.

Maryland, West Virginia↗

Effectiveness of a distance sampling from roads program for white-tailed deer in the National Capital Region parks

We evaluated the effectiveness of a distance sampling from roads program for estimating population sizes of white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) from 2001 to 2015 in parks of the National Capital Region (NCR), National Parks Service. Distance sampling is a method for estimating the density of organisms using a distribution of distances to observed individuals. Re-analysis of survey data for 9 of 11 NCR parks found that although the original park analyses likely estimated deer densities correctly, the uncertainties (coefficients of variation or CV) of the original estimates were likely underestimated. Power analyses based on the current analysis methods showed that survey effort at some parks was likely insufficient to reach the NCR target of a 20% CV. We simulated 7 different types of deer populations and 3 survey designs to assess how violations of the assumptions of distance sampling might have impacted population estimates. A significant interaction between survey type and population type explained most of the variation in population estimates across simulations. Simulation results suggested that (1) non-road surveys were more robust to bias in seven deer population distributions than were road surveys, (2) effectiveness of each of 3 survey types was dependent on the way deer were distributed across the landscape, and (3) non-road surveys produced unbiased estimates of populations affected by roads, whereas, road surveys did not. Based on this study, we recommend revisions of the NCR distance sampling program, including additional sampling effort for some parks and suggest alternative survey strategies to ameliorate potential assumption violations of distance sampling.

Maryland, Virginia↗

Efficient mammal biodiversity surveys for ecological restoration monitoring

Efficient biodiversity surveys are critical for successful restoration monitoring and management. We studied the effect of varying sampling effort on the observed species richness of surveys of small mammals (trapping transects), bats (passive acoustic detection), and medium to large mammals (trail cameras). Field studies provided mammalian biodiversity data for 4 bottomland hardwood restoration sites in northeastern Indiana. Subsampled data were used to simulate monitoring surveys with a range of levels of effort. We then used hierarchical Bayesian nonlinear mixed models to analyze how different components of sampling effort affected observed species richness, a key monitoring outcome. We found that observed small mammal richness increased with the increased number of transects in a survey, while observed bat and medium to large mammal richness increased with the increased duration of sampling. Variation between sites was important for the observed richness of small mammals and bats but not for medium to large mammals. The key driver of richness observed in simulated surveys was related to the spatial scale at which target fauna interact with the habitat, with decreasing richness accompanied by a greater spatial scale of animal–habitat interactions. Our findings suggest taxon-specific recommendations for efficiently quantifying the mammalian diversity of managed sites.

Indiana↗

Use of real-time dust monitoring and surface condition to evaluate success of unpaved road treatments

Fugitive dust from unpaved roads creates human health hazards, degrades road surfaces, and increases the cost of road maintenance. As a result, many different chemical treatments are applied to unpaved roads in an attempt to control dust and stabilize the wearing course. However, investigations of the effectiveness of these treatments have often been poorly planned or executed. The objective of this study was to use a combination of real-time dust monitoring and objective road condition evaluations to assess the success of two chemical treatments for a period of 19?months post-application, to provide quantitative information in support of road management decisions. Dust production from road sections treated with calcium chloride-based durablend-C™ or the synthetic fluid EnviroKleen® was monitored on five dates using a vehicle-mounted particulate matter meter. Both products reduced dust by up to 99% relative to an untreated control section during the monitoring period, and quantitative data from the meter were consistent with qualitative observations of dust conditions. Linear models of dust production indicated that road treatment and humidity explained 69% of the variation in dust over time. Road sections treated with either product developed less rutting and fewer potholes than the untreated control. Overall, the combination of real-time dust monitoring and surface condition evaluation was an effective approach for generating quantitative data on endpoints of interest to road managers.

Missouri↗

Population viability analyses for three Macrhybopsis spp. of the Lower Missouri River

Recent declines in three species of chubs that inhabit the lower Missouri River (shoal chub M. hyostoma , sicklefin chub M. meeki and sturgeon chub M. gelida ) have become a concern in the management of their own populations and the endangered pallid sturgeon ( Scaphirhynchus albus ) that feeds on them. These chub populations encounter threats from fish predation and habitat loss. With the recent advancements in the understanding of the reproductive life history of these species, their declines have prompted development of population models and population viability analyses. For each species, we developed an age‐structured population matrix model with hierarchical stochasticity, which partitions parameter total variance into sampling and temporal components. Using these models, we found population growth rate of all three chub species decreased when stochasticity was added to the model. While examining sensitivity, we found individual fish growth, as measured by length‐at‐age, to impact population growth rate and depending on the species, could be up to four times more influential than overall survival, the next most sensitive parameter. Current survival rates have large temporal variance; more research into accuracy and factors that influence survival rates is needed.

Journal of Applied Ichthyology↗

Potential responses of the Lower Missouri River Shovelnose Sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus platorynchus) population to a commercial fishing ban

We developed an age‐structured population matrix model to perform population viability analysis for Lower Missouri River (LMR) shovelnose sturgeon ( Scaphirhynchus platorynchus ). We investigated potential effects of the commercial fishing moratorium put in place to help protect the similar‐appearing pallid sturgeon ( S. albus ). The model applies different components of total variance in life history parameters at different levels: sampling variance (parameter uncertainty) between model iterations; temporal variance (temporal environmental fluctuations) between time steps within iterations; and individual variance (individual differences) within each time‐step. The model predicted annual rates of population increase of 1.96% under historic fishing and 2.67% with removal of historic fishing. We identified combinations of fishing and harvest size restrictions that would permit a sustainable harvest of shovelnose sturgeon. Overall, the ban on commercial fishing of shovelnose sturgeon in the LMR due to similarity of appearance to pallid sturgeon should help the LMR shovelnose sturgeon population begin to rebound while decreasing any negative effects it may have had on pallid sturgeon populations.

Lower Missouri River basin↗

Reproductive strategy, spawning induction, spawning temperatures and early life history of captive sicklefin chub Macrhybopsis meeki

Macrhybopsis reproduction and propagule traits were studied in the laboratory using two temperature regimes and three hormone treatments to determine which methods produced the most spawns. Only sicklefin chub Macrhybopsis meeki spawned successfully although sturgeon chub Macrhybopsis gelida released unfertilized eggs. All temperature and hormone treatments produced M. meeki spawns, but two treatments had similar success rates at 44 and 43%, consisting of a constant daily temperature with no hormone added, or daily temperature fluctuations with hormone added to the water. Spawns consisted of multiple successful demersal circular swimming spawning embraces interspersed with circular swims without embraces. The most spawns observed for one female was four and on average, 327 eggs were collected after each spawn. The water-hardened eggs were semi-buoyant and non-adhesive, the first confirmation of this type of reproductive guild in the Missouri River Macrhybopsis sp. From spawn, larvae swam vertically until 123 accumulated degree days (° D) and 167° D for consumption of first food. Using average water speed and laboratory development time, the predicted drift distance for eggs and larvae could be 468–592 km in the lower Missouri River. Results from this study determined the reproductive biology and early life history of Macrhybopsis spp. and provided insight into their population dynamics in the Missouri River.

Journal of Fish Biology↗

A fully-stochasticized, age-structured population model for population viability analysis of fish: Lower Missouri River endangered pallid sturgeon example

We develop a fully-stochasticized, age-structured population model suitable for population viability analysis (PVA) of fish and demonstrate its use with the endangered pallid sturgeon ( Scaphirhynchus albus ) of the Lower Missouri River as an example. The model incorporates three levels of variance: parameter variance (uncertainty about the value of a parameter itself) applied at the iteration level, temporal variance (uncertainty caused by random environmental fluctuations over time) applied at the time-step level, and implicit individual variance (uncertainty caused by differences between individuals) applied within the time-step level. We found that population dynamics were most sensitive to survival rates, particularly age-2+ survival, and to fecundity-at-length. The inclusion of variance (unpartitioned or partitioned), stocking, or both generally decreased the influence of individual parameters on population growth rate. The partitioning of variance into parameter and temporal components had a strong influence on the importance of individual parameters, uncertainty of model predictions, and quasiextinction risk (i.e., pallid sturgeon population size falling below 50 age-1+ individuals). Our findings show that appropriately applying variance in PVA is important when evaluating the relative importance of parameters, and reinforce the need for better and more precise estimates of crucial life-history parameters for pallid sturgeon.

Lower Missouri River↗

Was everything bigger in Texas? Characterization and trends of a land-based recreational shark fishery

Although current assessments of shark population trends involve both fishery-independent and fishery-dependent data, the latter are generally limited to commercial landings that may neglect nearshore coastal habitats. Texas has supported the longest organized land-based recreational shark fishery in the United States, yet no studies have used this “non-traditional” data source to characterize the catch composition or trends in this multidecadal fishery. We analyzed catch records from two distinct periods straddling heavy commercial exploitation of sharks in the Gulf of Mexico (historical period = 1973–1986; modern period = 2008–2015) to highlight and make available the current status and historical trends in Texas’ land-based shark fishery. Catch records describing large coastal species (>1,800 mm stretched total length [STL]) were examined using multivariate techniques to assess catch seasonality and potential temporal shifts in species composition. These fishery-dependent data revealed consistent seasonality that was independent of the data set examined, although distinct shark assemblages were evident between the two periods. Similarity percentage analysis suggested decreased contributions of Lemon Shark Negaprion brevirostris over time and a general shift toward the dominance of Bull Shark Carcharhinus leucas and Blacktip Shark C. limbatus . Comparisons of mean STL for species captured in historical and modern periods further identified significant decreases for both Bull Sharks and Lemon Sharks. Size structure analysis showed a distinct paucity of landed individuals over 2,000 mm STL in recent years. Although inherent biases in reporting and potential gear-related inconsistencies undoubtedly influenced this fishery-dependent data set, the patterns in our findings documented potential declines in the size and occurrence of select large coastal shark species off Texas, consistent with declines reported in the Gulf of Mexico. Future management efforts should consider the use of non-traditional fishery-dependent data sources, such as land-based records, as data streams in stock assessments.

Texas↗

A stochastic bioenergetics model based approach to translating large river flow and temperature in to fish population responses: The pallid sturgeon example

In managing fish populations, especially at-risk species, realistic mathematical models are needed to help predict population response to potential management actions in the context of environmental conditions and changing climate while effectively incorporating the stochastic nature of real world conditions. We provide a key component of such a model for the endangered pallid sturgeon ( Scaphirhynchus albus ) in the form of an individual-based bioenergetics model influenced not only by temperature but also by flow. This component is based on modification of a known individual-based bioenergetics model through incorporation of: the observed ontogenetic shift in pallid sturgeon diet from marcroinvertebrates to fish; the energetic costs of swimming under flowing-water conditions; and stochasticity. We provide an assessment of how differences in environmental conditions could potentially alter pallid sturgeon growth estimates, using observed temperature and velocity from channelized portions of the Lower Missouri River mainstem. We do this using separate relationships between the proportion of maximum consumption and fork length and swimming cost standard error estimates for fish captured above and below the Kansas River in the Lower Missouri River. Critical to our matching observed growth in the field with predicted growth based on observed environmental conditions was a two-step shift in diet from macroinvertebrates to fish.

Missouri River↗

Visual Basic, Excel-based fish population modeling tool - The pallid sturgeon example

The model presented in this report is a spreadsheet-based model using Visual Basic for Applications within Microsoft Excel ( http://dx.doi.org/10.5066/F7057D0Z ) prepared in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers and U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service. It uses the same model structure and, initially, parameters as used by Wildhaber and others (2015) for pallid sturgeon. The difference between the model structure used for this report and that used by Wildhaber and others (2015) is that variance is not partitioned. For the model of this report, all variance is applied at the iteration and time-step levels of the model. Wildhaber and others (2015) partition variance into parameter variance (uncertainty about the value of a parameter itself) applied at the iteration level and temporal variance (uncertainty caused by random environmental fluctuations with time) applied at the time-step level. They included implicit individual variance (uncertainty caused by differences between individuals) within the time-step level. The interface developed for the model of this report is designed to allow the user the flexibility to change population model structure and parameter values and uncertainty separately for every component of the model. This flexibility makes the modeling tool potentially applicable to any fish species; however, the flexibility inherent in this modeling tool makes it possible for the user to obtain spurious outputs. The value and reliability of the model outputs are only as good as the model inputs. Using this modeling tool with improper or inaccurate parameter values, or for species for which the structure of the model is inappropriate, could lead to untenable management decisions. By facilitating fish population modeling, this modeling tool allows the user to evaluate a range of management options and implications. The goal of this modeling tool is to be a user-friendly modeling tool for developing fish population models useful to natural resource managers to inform their decision-making processes; however, as with all population models, caution is needed, and a full understanding of the limitations of a model and the veracity of user-supplied parameters should always be considered when using such model output in the management of any species.

Open-File Report↗

Ecological requirements for pallid sturgeon reproduction and recruitment in the Missouri River—Annual report 2013

The Comprehensive Sturgeon Research Project is a multiyear, multiagency collaborative research framework developed to provide information to support pallid sturgeon recovery and Missouri River management decisions. The project strategy integrates field and laboratory studies of pallid sturgeon reproductive ecology, early life history, habitat requirements, and physiology. The project scope of work is developed annually with collaborating research partners and in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Missouri River Recovery—Integrated Science Program. The research consists of several interdependent and complementary tasks that engage multiple disciplines. The research tasks in the 2013 scope of work emphasized understanding reproductive migrations and spawning of adult pallid sturgeon, and hatch and drift of free embryos and larvae. These tasks were addressed in four study sections located in three hydrologically and geomorphologically distinct parts of the Missouri River Basin: the Upper Missouri River downstream from Fort Peck Dam, including downstream reaches of the Milk River, the Lower Yellowstone River, and the Lower Missouri River downstream from Gavins Point Dam. The research is designed to inform management decisions related to channel re-engineering, flow modification, and pallid sturgeon population augmentation on the Missouri River, and throughout the range of the species. Research and progress made through this project are reported to the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers annually. This annual report details the research effort and progress made by the Comprehensive Sturgeon Research Project during 2013.

Missouri River Basin↗

Ecological requirements for pallid sturgeon reproduction and recruitment in the Missouri River—A synthesis of science, 2005 to 2012

This report is intended to synthesize the state of the scientific understanding of pallid sturgeon ecological requirements to provide recommendations for future science directions and context for Missouri River restoration and management decisions. Recruitment of pallid sturgeon has been low to non-existent throughout its range. Emerging understanding of the genetic structure of pallid sturgeon populations sets a broad framework for species and river management decisions, including decisions about managing the future genetic diversity of the species, but also decisions about where and what type of river restoration actions will be effective for subpopulations of this highly migratory species. Adult pallid sturgeon may migrate hundreds of kilometers (km) to spawn and their progeny may disperse even greater distances downstream as drifting free embryos. As a result of their complex life history pallid sturgeon naturally exploit a wide range of habitats during their life cycles. The construction of dams and reservoirs has fragmented habitats and may have shifted Missouri River subpopulations downstream. Research has not identified one primary biological or ecological constraint that appears to limit populations of the pallid sturgeon. With the present (2013) state of knowledge many life stages and life-stage transitions cannot be ruled out as contributing to recruitment failure. Biological opinions in 2000 (and amended in 2003) presented the dominant hypotheses for recruitment failure that existed at that time. Emphasis was on the role of the flow regime, specifically spring flow pulses (“spring rises”), to condition spawning substrate and cue reproductive aggregations and migrations, and on low flows and additional slow, shallow-water area to serve as rearing habitat for age-0 to juvenile pallid sturgeon. Studies on spawning habitat dynamics have documented that habitat patches selected for spawning by fish in the Lower Missouri River (Missouri River downstream from Gavins Point Dam to the confluence with the Mississippi River) are dominantly on outside, revetted bends in the deepest, fastest, and most turbulent water. Studies in more natural habitat on the Yellowstone River have documented spawning in convergent flow in the middle of the channel on discrete patches of gravel within a sand-dominated channel, an arrangement that may be more effective in attracting aggregations of reproductive fish compared to the nearly continuous revetment on the Lower Missouri River. Pallid sturgeon spawn in the spring and early summer during periods of increasing day length. Water temperature consistently exerts a threshold effect for spawning at 16–18 °C. In addition, the role of water temperature is indicated by pauses and reversals in upstream migrations that have been associated with cold weather fronts that create a transient decrease in water temperature. From 2005 to 2012 on the Lower Missouri River, no obvious relations between flow pulses and fish movements and spawning behaviors have been apparent. However, pallid sturgeon tracking at the Upper Missouri–Yellowstone confluence indicates that in most years, most telemetered pallid sturgeon migrate out of the Missouri River and into the Yellowstone River in the June–July timeframe in association with the spring pulse. This pattern was disrupted in 2011 when a high flow pulse with warm temperatures and high turbidity emanated from the Milk River, followed by record releases from Fort Peck Dam, and 36–39 percent of the telemetered population migrated up the Upper Missouri. This result supports the hypothesis that sufficiently large flow pulses may trigger migration and aggregation but it is not clear that functional pulses are within reservoir management authorities. Notably, a pallid sturgeon free embryo was captured on the Upper Missouri River in 2011 and another single, genetically confirmed embryo was captured on the Yellowstone River in 2012. Research on free-embryo drift has indicated the potential for hundreds of miles of downstream dispersal. Lack of distance to accommodate the extended downstream dispersal period of free embryos on the Upper Missouri and Yellowstone Rivers is the predominant hypothesis for recruitment failure in the upper basin. Long drift distances in the Lower Missouri River may be responsible for shifting Lower Missouri River sub-populations further into the Middle Mississippi River. Physical understanding of drift processes indicates that mean velocities could be slowed through decreased discharges or increased channel hydraulic radius (width and topographic diversity) to reduce free-embryo dispersal distances. In addition, the probability that free embryos are transported into and retained in channel-margin habitats is theoretically amenable to channel re-engineering that would increase cross-channel secondary currents in bends or channel expansions. Considerable uncertainty persists, however, about whether extended drift of Lower Missouri River larvae is responsible for recruitment failure. If drift distance is limiting, it is important to discern whether it would be advisable to retain larvae within the Missouri River, and where along the river restoration projects should be placed to optimize survival and growth of age-0 and juvenile sturgeon. Longitudinal differences in female pallid sturgeon fecundity lend support to the hypothesis that recruitment failure may be due, in part, to fish having insufficient nutrition to produce the numbers of gametes needed for the population to grow, perhaps because of simultaneous declines in prey-fish populations and their habitats. Establishing a chain of causality from habitat decline, to prey-fish populations, to sturgeon diets, to sturgeon fecundity, and to pallid sturgeon population growth presents a considerable scientific challenge. In addition to the dominant hypotheses relating pallid sturgeon populations to changes in flow regime and channel morphology, other factors have been identified that might be sources of stress and contribute to recruitment failure. Among these are water quality and contaminants. Ambient water-quality monitoring on the Missouri River has demonstrated summer episodes when dissolved oxygen dips below 5 milligrams per liter, a threshold that may be stressful especially to age-0 and juvenile sturgeon. Documented cases of intersex in shovelnose and pallid sturgeon indicate that agricultural and municipal sources of endocrine disrupting chemicals also may have a role in pallid sturgeon recruitment failure. Scientific understanding of the ecological requirements of pallid sturgeon has increased almost exponentially in the last two decades, and efforts are now turning from understanding fundamental biology of the species to quantifying how population dynamics relate to potential management actions. Progress in developing the science needed to inform management actions on the Missouri River may benefit from continuation of monitoring of reproductive cycles, reproductive movements, growth, and survival of telemetry tagged adults, increased emphasis on focused, complementary field and laboratory studies of factors influencing early life history, implementation of studies to resolve the role of food limitations in growth, survival, and reproductive condition, and implementation of studies designed specifically to parameterize models linking management to populations.

Missouri River↗

Hierarchical stochastic modeling of large river ecosystems and fish growth across spatio-temporal scales and climate models: the Missouri River endangered pallid sturgeon example

We present a hierarchical series of spatially decreasing and temporally increasing models to evaluate the uncertainty in the atmosphere – ocean global climate model (AOGCM) and the regional climate model (RCM) relative to the uncertainty in the somatic growth of the endangered pallid sturgeon (Scaphirhynchus albus). For effects on fish populations of riverine ecosystems, cli- mate output simulated by coarse-resolution AOGCMs and RCMs must be downscaled to basins to river hydrology to population response. One needs to transfer the information from these climate simulations down to the individual scale in a way that minimizes extrapolation and can account for spatio-temporal variability in the intervening stages. The goal is a framework to determine whether, given uncertainties in the climate models and the biological response, meaningful inference can still be made. The non-linear downscaling of climate information to the river scale requires that one realistically account for spatial and temporal variability across scale. Our down- scaling procedure includes the use of fixed/calibrated hydrological flow and temperature models coupled with a stochastically parameterized sturgeon bioenergetics model. We show that, although there is a large amount of uncertainty associated with both the climate model output and the fish growth process, one can establish significant differences in fish growth distributions between models, and between future and current climates for a given model.

Missouri River basin↗

Population trends, bend use relative to available habitat and within-river-bend habitat use of eight indicator species of Missouri and Lower Kansas River benthic fishes: 15 years after baseline assessment

A baseline assessment of the Missouri River fish community and species-specific habitat use patterns conducted from 1996 to 1998 provided the first comprehensive analysis of Missouri River benthic fish population trends and habitat use in the Missouri and Lower Yellowstone rivers, exclusive of reservoirs, and provided the foundation for the present Pallid Sturgeon Population Assessment Program (PSPAP). Data used in such studies are frequently zero inflated. To address this issue, the zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) model was applied. This follow-up study is based on PSPAP data collected up to 15 years later along with new understanding of how habitat characteristics among and within bends affect habitat use of fish species targeted by PSPAP, including pallid sturgeon. This work demonstrated that a large-scale, large-river, PSPAP-type monitoring program can be an effective tool for assessing population trends and habitat usage of large-river fish species. Using multiple gears, PSPAP was effective in monitoring shovelnose and pallid sturgeons, sicklefin, shoal and sturgeon chubs, sand shiner, blue sucker and sauger. For all species, the relationship between environmental variables and relative abundance differed, somewhat, among river segments suggesting the importance of the overall conditions of Upper and Middle Missouri River and Lower Missouri and Kansas rivers on the habitat usage patterns exhibited. Shoal and sicklefin chubs exhibited many similar habitat usage patterns; blue sucker and shovelnose sturgeon also shared similar responses. For pallid sturgeon, the primary focus of PSPAP, relative abundance tended to increase in Upper and Middle Missouri River paralleling stocking efforts, whereas no evidence of an increasing relative abundance was found in the Lower Missouri River despite stocking.

Kansas River, Missouri River↗