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Geology topics

Mark J. Henderson

Publications and source records attributed to Mark J. Henderson.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2026

Melanoma and other melanistic lesions in brown bullhead Ameiurus nebulosus from waterbodies in the northeastern United States and Canada: Identification of risk factors

Melanistic lesions, including non-raised black areas due to proliferations of melanocytes and melanomacrophages in the dermis and epidermis, as well as raised black areas consistent with melanoma, are described in brown bullhead (BBH) Ameiurus nebulosus from three water bodies in the northeastern United States and Quebec, Canada. First observed in the Vermont portion of Lake Memphremagog, Vermont, USA and Quebec, Canada, the prevalence of melanistic lesions during 2014–2020 was greater than 30% in BBH 200 mm and longer. In 2023, seven sites throughout the lake were assessed, and prevalence ranged from 18% to 42%. In Hermon Pond, Maine, the prevalence was 29% in 2024, and in Village Pond, New Hampshire, lesions occurred in 22% of BBH in 2025. Compared to skin from visibly normal BBH, skin with melanistic lesions had significantly higher concentrations of seven metals, including arsenic, a known carcinogen and zinc. Lesions associated with oxidative damage, such as the accumulation of ceroid/lipofuscin, were also observed in the gill, spleen and kidney tissue of both affected and visibly normal BBH. The progression of lesions, observed by histopathology, ranged from inflammation, signs of oxidative damage, proliferation and necrosis of club cells, and the presence of melanomacrophages and melanocytes in the epidermis to invasive melanoma and suggests chronic exposure of BBH to environmental initiators and promoters of carcinogenesis.

New Hampshire, New York, Quebec, Vermont↗
USGS2025

A comparison of deep-sea coral and sponge species distribution models and the impact of ocean currents in the Southern California Bight

Deep-sea corals and sponges (DSCS) are signature taxa of deep-water habitats, but ecological mechanisms that drive their geographic distributions can be difficult to uncover due to the challenges of surveying deep-water ecosystems and limited oceanographic data. A comparison of species distribution models was made for three DSCS ( Antipathes dendochristos, Plumarella longispina, and an unidentified sponge morphotype known as Porifera #2), two of which are associated with young-of-the-year and adult rockfish taxa ( Sebastes spp.). Models were built using generalized additive models (GAMs) that accounted for spatial autocorrelation. These models were compared to Maxent models, a commonly used method. All models utilized bathymetrically derived variables (including depth, slope, and Bathymetric Position Index) and output from a coupled physical-biogeochemical ocean model (including current direction and magnitude, food abundance, and dissolved oxygen). Direction of benthic ocean currents played an important role in predictions, pointing to large-scale ecological processes that may determine presence of DSCS. GAMs outperformed Maxent models and predicted more ecologically interpretable patterns. Additionally we quantified the predicted amount of suitable habitat that is currently located within some protected areas of the Southern California Bight and show that many hot spots occur outside protected areas. Given the importance of DSCS for multiple demersal fish species of commercial or conservation concerns, this research provides valuable information that natural resource managers can use as a tool in the Southern California Bight.

California↗
USGS2024

Modeling regional occupancy of fishes using acoustic telemetry: A model comparison framework applied to lake trout

Acoustic telemetry is a common tool used in fisheries management to estimate fish space use (i.e., occupancy) from a local habitat scale to entire systems. Numerous analytical models have been developed to estimate different aspects of fish movement from telemetry datasets, yet evaluations of model performance and comparisons among models are limited. Here, we develop a framework to evaluate model estimates of regional occupancy in large and fragmented systems using an acoustic receiver array in Lake Champlain. We simulated the tracks of 100 acoustically tagged fish using a random walk function and created detection events based on receiver positions and distance-based detection probability. Regional occupancy for the simulated data was estimated by six movement models that ranged in analytical complexity, and results were compared to the true distributions for each simulated track to evaluate model error. The six movement models included: (1) a basic residency index using detections alone; (2) a residency index using last-observation-carried-forward; (3) a centers of activity model; (4) linear and non-linear interpolations (i.e., least-cost paths); and (5 and 6) two dynamic Brownian bridge movement models generated using separate packages in R. We developed a model selection process to compare model performance and select the optimal analysis based on simulation error. This process showed significant differences in model performance among the six movement models based on model error. Overall, the model generating least-cost paths using linear and non-linear interpolations consistently provided the most accurate regional occupancy estimates. Based on these simulation results, we applied this model to a case study that evaluated patterns in the regional distribution of stocked lake trout ( Salvelinus namaycush ) in Lake Champlain, which demonstrated distinct regional occupancy of two stocked lake trout groups. These results demonstrate potential for large variability in interpretation of acoustic telemetry data for describing regional fish distribution dependent on the analytical method used.

New York, Vermont↗
USGS2024

It's about time: A multistate semicontinuous time mark–recapture model to evaluate seasonal survival and movement rates of juvenile Coho Salmon in a small coastal watershed

Objective Many mark–recapture models assume that releases and recaptures are discrete events, and researchers often aggregate continuous recapture data (e.g., passive integrated transponder [PIT] detections) into coarse temporal scales to satisfy this assumption. This temporal discretization could result in parameter biases by ignoring the individual heterogeneity in the time susceptible to mortality after recapture and the conditions experienced (e.g., temperature and predation risk) before and after recapture. Our objectives were to (1) estimate the amount of bias in survival and emigration rates due to different temporal discretization durations when recapture events occur continuously and (2) apply this semicontinuous model to estimate rates of early emigration and overwinter survival for Coho Salmon Oncorhynchus kisutch in a coastal California watershed. Methods We developed a semicontinuous time multistate mark–recapture model to separately estimated emigration and survival rates throughout the year. We used weekly time-varying occasions paired with discrete spatial states and conducted extensive simulation trials to explore potential model bias. We then applied the model to an existing 4-year dataset of Coho Salmon PIT tag detections. Result Our simulations indicated that that the amount of bias in survival and movement rates decreased as the temporal discretization duration decreased. The confidence interval of the bias estimates included zero with a duration of 8 days, indicating that this duration was sufficiently short to model movement and survival. Results from our Coho Salmon analysis suggest that overwinter survival rate ranged from 0.72 to 0.83, which is higher than previous estimates for Coho Salmon in this region. We estimate that a substantial proportion of smaller juveniles (0.21–0.28 annually) move to downstream nonnatal rearing habitats before the spring smolt migration. Conclusion Our semicontinuous modeling approach can be implemented relatively easily and used to analyze continuous detection data to accurately estimate survival and movement rates. Our analysis of Coho Salmon PIT tag detections implies that previous low estimates of apparent overwinter survival of Coho Salmon were partially due to high movement rates to alternative rearing locations. This contrasts with conclusions from the previous research that suggested that overwinter survival was a major limiting factor for population recovery and implies that species recovery may be improved by considering multiple emigration patterns in the design of future research, monitoring, and restoration projects.

California↗
USGS2023

Prey ration, temperature, and predator species influence digestion rates of prey DNA inferred from qPCR and metabarcoding

Diet analysis is a vital tool for understanding trophic interactions and is frequently used to inform conservation and management. Molecular approaches can identify diet items that are impossible to distinguish using more traditional visual-based methods. Yet, our understanding of how different variables, such as predator species or prey ration size, influence molecular diet analysis is still incomplete. Here, we conducted a large feeding trial to assess the impact that ration size, predator species, and temperature had on digestion rates estimated with visual identification, qPCR, and metabarcoding. Our trial was conducted by feeding two rations of Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) to two piscivorous fish species (largemouth bass [ Micropterus salmoides ] and channel catfish [ Ictalurus punctatus ]) held at two different temperatures (15.5 and 18.5°C) and sacrificed at regular intervals up to 120 h from the time of ingestion to quantify the prey contents remaining in the digestive tract. We found that ration size, temperature, and predator species all influenced digestion rate, with some indication that ration size had the largest influence. DNA-based analyses were able to identify salmon smolt prey in predator gut samples for much longer than visual analysis (~12 h for visual analysis vs. ~72 h for molecular analyses). Our study provides evidence that modelling the persistence of prey DNA in predator guts for molecular diet analyses may be feasible using a small set of controlling variables for many fish systems.

Molecular Ecology Resources↗
USGS2023

Toward absolute abundance for conservation applications: Estimating the number of contributors via microhaplotype genotyping of mixed-DNA sample

Molecular methods including metabarcoding and quantitative polymerase chain reaction have shown promise for estimating species abundance by quantifying the concentration of genetic material in field samples. However, the relationship between specimen abundance and detectable concentrations of genetic material is often variable in practice. DNA mixture analysis represents an alternative approach to quantify specimen abundance based on the presence of unique alleles in a sample. The DNA mixture approach provides novel opportunities to inform ecology and conservation by estimating the absolute abundance of target taxa through molecular methods; yet, the challenges associated with genotyping many highly variable markers in mixed-DNA samples have prevented its widespread use. To advance molecular approaches for abundance estimation, we explored the utility of microhaplotypes for DNA mixture analysis by applying a 125-marker panel to 1179 Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) smolts from the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta, California, USA. We assessed the accuracy of DNA mixture analysis through a combination of mock mixtures containing DNA from up to 20 smolts and a trophic ecological application enumerating smolts in predator diets. Mock DNA mixtures of up to 10 smolts could reliably be resolved using microhaplotypes, and increasing the panel size would likely facilitate the identification of more individuals. However, while analysis of predator gastrointestinal tract contents indicated DNA mixture analysis could discern the presence of multiple prey items, poor and variable DNA quality prevented accurate genotyping and abundance estimation. Our results indicate that DNA mixture analysis can perform well with high-quality DNA, but methodological improvements in genotyping degraded DNA are necessary before this approach can be used on marginal-quality samples.

California↗
USGS2023

Estimates of predator densities using mobile DIDSON surveys: Implications for survival of Central Valley Chinook Salmon

The Sacramento–San Joaquin Delta (hereafter, “the Delta”) is one of the estuaries with the most invasive species in the world, and nonnative predators may be a major factor in the observed decline of Central Valley Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha over recent decades. In order for managers to take actions that might reduce predation-related mortality for these ecologically, culturally, and economically valuable fish, it is important to understand the factors influencing the distribution and abundance of piscivores in the Delta. In this study, we used a dual-frequency identification sonar (i.e., DIDSON) to conduct mobile surveys to quantify the abundances of piscivores in the Delta. We then used these data to identify the habitat features that are correlated with the abundance of piscivores. Prior to conducting the surveys, we used DIDSON data from captured fish to develop an algorithm to distinguish piscivores from nonpiscivores with high confidence (98% accuracy). A generalized linear mixed-effects model fit to these survey data indicated that predator abundances were most associated with areas of increased submerged aquatic vegetation patches, and channels that are straighter, with increased bathymetric complexity. When applied to the entire survey area, this model was successfully able to predict known areas of high predator densities. These results indicate that one approach to reduce predator densities in key locations throughout the Delta, and improve juvenile salmonid outmigration survival, is to reduce the extent of invasive submerged aquatic vegetation. Because experimental predator removals have been largely ineffective in the Delta, efforts to manipulate habitat to discourage nonnative predator recruitment and favor native species recruitment may provide a more effective solution to improve salmonid survival rates.

California↗
USGS2023

Vulnerability to climate change of managed stocks in the California Current large marine ecosystem

Introduction: Understanding how abundance, productivity and distribution of individual species may respond to climate change is a critical first step towards anticipating alterations in marine ecosystem structure and function, as well as developing strategies to adapt to the full range of potential changes. Methods: This study applies the NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) Fisheries Climate Vulnerability Assessment method to 64 federally-managed species in the California Current Large Marine Ecosystem to assess their vulnerability to climate change, where vulnerability is a function of a species’ exposure to environmental change and its biological sensitivity to a set of environmental conditions, which includes components of its resiliency and adaptive capacity to respond to these new conditions. Results: Overall, two-thirds of the species were judged to have Moderate or greater vulnerability to climate change, and only one species was anticipated to have a positive response. Species classified as Highly or Very Highly vulnerable share one or more characteristics including: 1) having complex life histories that utilize a wide range of freshwater and marine habitats; 2) having habitat specialization, particularly for areas that are likely to experience increased hypoxia; 3) having long lifespans and low population growth rates; and/or 4) being of high commercial value combined with impacts from non-climate stressors such as anthropogenic habitat degradation. Species with Low or Moderate vulnerability are either habitat generalists, occupy deep-water habitats or are highly mobile and likely to shift their ranges. Discussion: As climate-related changes intensify, this work provides key information for both scientists and managers as they address the long-term sustainability of fisheries in the region. This information can inform near-term advice for prioritizing species-level data collection and research on climate impacts, help managers to determine when and where a precautionary approach might be warranted, in harvest or other management decisions, and help identify habitats or life history stages that might be especially effective to protect or restore.

California, Oregon, Washington↗
USGS2023

A life cycle model for evaluating estuary residency and restoration potential in Chinook salmon

Understanding the spatial and temporal habitat use of a population is a necessary step for recovery planning. For Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ), variation in their migration and habitat use complicate predicting how restoring habitats could impact total recruitment. To evaluate how juvenile life history variation affects a population’s response to potential restoration, we developed a stage-structured model for a Chinook salmon population in a northern California river with a seasonally closed estuary. We modeled the timing of juvenile migration and estuarine use as a function of freshwater conditions and fish abundance. We used the model to evaluate the sensitivity of the population to different estuary and freshwater restoration scenarios that could affect population parameters at different life stages. The population’s run size increased most in response to freshwater restoration that enhanced spawning productivity (egg and fry survival), followed by spawner capacity. In contrast, estuary restoration scenarios affected only a subset of Chinook salmon (average 15%), and as a result, did not have a large impact on the total recruitment of a cohort. Under current condition, estuary rearing fish were over six times less likely to survive than fish that migrate to the ocean in the spring or early summer before estuary closure. Because estuary residents experienced low survival in the estuary and in the ocean, improvements to both estuary survival and growth would be needed to increase their total survival. When life cycle monitoring data is available, life cycle models such as ours generate predictions at scales relevant to conservation and are an advantageous approach to managing and conserving anadromous salmon that use multiple habitats throughout their life cycle.

California↗
USGS2021

From site to system: Approaches for producing system-wide estimates of fish habitat in large rivers

Worldwide, many productive rivers are dam-regulated and rely on flow management strategies that must balance support of ecological processes with human water use. One component of evaluating this balance is to understand ecological consequences of alternative flow management strategies, which has often been accomplished by coupling population dynamics models with models that relate streamflow to habitat availability and quality. Numerous methods assign habitat availability to locations within a river basin: These include fine-scale field-measured values that are extrapolated to other locations within the basin having similar physical characteristics or equation-driven values created by functions of model-predicted values of physical characteristics. The array of options for creating habitat models is evolving rapidly as high-resolution remote-sensing data becomes more accessible and computational capacity improves. Our objective was to identify trade-offs among approaches that assign habitat relationships to large rivers and to create a decision support tool to supplement choices of extent and granularity. Using a selection of case studies that represent a breadth of scales and diverse trade-offs, we demonstrate the need for a transparent process of data evaluation and assessment to determine the appropriate fit for model scope or context that best supports management needs and recognize sources of uncertainty. The structured approach proposed here aims at improving future model development and refine population dynamics models that inform the management of rivers.

River Research and Applications↗
USGS2021

Reduced recruitment of Chinook salmon in a leveed bar-built estuary

Estuaries are commonly touted as nurseries for salmonids, providing numerous advantages for smolts prior to ocean entry. In bar-built estuaries, sandbars form at the mouth of rivers during periods of low stream flow, closing access to the ocean and preventing outmigration. We evaluated how summer residency in a leveed bar-built estuary affects the growth, survival, and recruitment of a Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) population. We performed a mark–recapture study on outmigrants to determine juvenile estuary abundance, growth, and survival. We used returning adult scales and otoliths to determine the relative proportion of summer estuary residents in spawning adults. Juveniles in the estuary grew less after mouth closure, and ultimately summer estuary residents had lower smolt-to-adult survival and contributed disproportionately less to the spawning population than juveniles that reared in the ocean their first summer. Mouth closure may lower food availability and deteriorate estuary conditions by reducing marine prey influx and estuary circulation. This research demonstrates the complexity of estuary dynamics and function as salmonid nurseries, particularly when considering the extensive modification of estuaries.

California↗
USGS2020

Deep-sea coral and sponge taxa increase demersal fish diversity and the probability of fish presence

Fishes are known to use deep-sea coral and sponge (DSCS) species as habitat, but it is uncertain whether this relationship is facultative (circumstantial and not restricted to a particular function) or obligate (necessary to sustain fish populations). To explore whether DSCS provide essential habitats for demersal fishes, we analyzed 10 years of submersible survey video transect data, documenting the locations and abundance of DSCS and demersal fishes in the Southern California Bight (SCB). We first classified the different habitats in which fishes and DSCS taxa occurred using cluster analysis, which revealed four distinct DSCS assemblages based on depth and substratum. We then used logistic regression and gradient forest analysis to identify the ecological correlates most associated with the presence of rockfish taxa ( Sebastes spp.) and biodiversity. After accounting for spatial autocorrelation, the factors most related to the presence of rockfishes were depth, coral height, and the abundance of a few key DSCS taxa. Of particular interest, we found that young-of-the-year rockfishes were more likely to be present in locations with taller coral and increased densities of Plumarella longispina , Lophelia pertusa , and two sponge taxa. This suggests these DSCS taxa may serve as important rearing habitat for rockfishes. Similarly, the gradient forest analysis found the most important ecological correlates for fish biodiversity were depth, coral cover, coral height, and a subset of DSCS taxa. Of the 10 top-ranked DSCS taxa in the gradient forest (out of 39 potential DSCS taxa), 6 also were associated with increased probability of fish presence in the logistic regression. The weight of evidence from these multiple analytical methods suggests that this subset of DSCS taxa are important fish habitats. In this paper we describe methods to characterize demersal communities and highlight which DSCS taxa provide habitat to demersal fishes, which is valuable information to fisheries agencies tasked to manage these fishes and their essential habitats.

California↗
USGS2020

Fish predation on a landscape scale

Predator–prey dynamics can have landscape-level impacts on ecosystems, and yet, spatial patterns and environmental predictors of predator–prey dynamics are often investigated at discrete locations, limiting our understanding of the broader impacts. At these broader scales, landscapes often contain multiple complex and heterogeneous habitats, requiring a spatially representative sampling design. This challenge is especially pronounced in California’s Sacramento–San Joaquin River Delta, where managers require information on the landscape-scale impacts of non-native fish predators on multiple imperiled native prey fish populations. We quantified relative predation risk in the southern half of the Delta (South Delta) in 2017 using floating baited tethers that record the exact time and location of predation events. We selected 20 study sites using a generalized random tessellation stratified survey design, which allowed us to infer relationships between key environmental covariates and predation across a broader spatial scale than previous studies. Covariates included distance-to-nearest predators, water temperature, turbidity, depth, bottom slope, bottom roughness, water velocity, and distance-to-nearest riverbank and nearest aquatic vegetation bed. Model selection determined the covariates that best predicted relative predation risk: water temperature, time of day, mean predator distance, and river bottom roughness. Using this model, we estimated predation risk for the South Delta landscape at a 1-day and 1-km resolution. This effort identified hot spots of predation risk and allowed us to generate predicted survival for migrating fish transiting the South Delta. This methodology can be applied to other systems to evaluate spatio-temporal dynamics in predation risk, and their biotic and abiotic predictors.

California↗
USGS2020

Good practices for species distribution modeling of deep-sea corals and sponges for resource management: Data collection, analysis, validation, and communication

Resource managers in the United States and worldwide are tasked with identifying and mitigating trade-offs between human activities in the deep sea (e.g., fishing, energy development, and mining) and their impacts on habitat-forming invertebrates, including deep-sea corals and sponges (DSCS). Related management decisions require information about where DSCS occur and in what densities. Species distribution modeling (SDM) provides a cost-effective means of identifying potential DSCS habitat over large areas to inform these management decisions and data collection. Here we describe good practices for DSCS SDM, especially in the context of data collection and management applications. Managers typically need information regarding DSCS encounter probabilities, densities, and sizes, defined at sub-regional to basin-wide scales and validated using subsequent, targeted data collections. To realistically achieve these goals, we suggest analysts: 1) integrate available data sources in SDMs including fine-scale visual sampling and broad-scale resource surveys (e.g., fisheries trawl surveys); and 2) include environmental predictor variables representing multiple spatial scales, model residual spatial autocorrelation, and quantify prediction uncertainty. When possible, models fitted to presence-absence and density data are preferred over models fitted only to presence data, which are difficult to validate and can confound estimated probability of occurrence or density with sampling effort. Ensembles of models can provide robust predictions, while multi-species models leverage information across taxa and facilitate community inference. To facilitate the use of models by managers, predictions should be expressed in units that are widely understood and validated at an appropriate spatial scale using a sampling design that provides strong statistical inference. We present three case studies for the Pacific Ocean that illustrate good practices with respect to data collection, modeling, and validation; these case studies demonstrate it is possible to implement our good practices in real-world settings.

Frontiers in Marine Science↗
USGS2020

Outmigration survival of wild Chinook salmon smolts through the Sacramento River during historic drought and high water conditions

Populations of wild spring-run Chinook salmon in California’s Central Valley, once numbering in the millions, have dramatically declined to record low numbers. Dam construction, habitat degradation, and altered flow regimes have all contributed to depress populations, which currently persist in only a few tributaries to the Sacramento River. Mill Creek (Tehama County) continues to support these threatened fish, and contains some of the most pristine spawning and rearing habitat available in the Central Valley. Despite this pristine habitat, the number of Chinook salmon returning to spawn has declined to record low numbers, likely due to poor outmigration survival rates. From 2013-2017, 334 smolts were captured and acoustic tagged while out-migrating from Mill Creek, allowing for movement and survival rates to be tracked over 250 kilometers through the Sacramento River. During this study California experienced both a historic drought and record rainfall, resulting in dramatic fluctuations in year-to-year river flow and water temperature. Cumulative survival of tagged smolts from Mill Creek through the Sacramento River was 9.5% (±1.6) during the study, with relatively low survival during historic drought conditions in 2015 (4.9% ± 1.6) followed by increased survival during high flows in 2017 (42.3% ± 9.1). Survival in Mill Creek and the Sacramento River was modeled over a range of flow values, which indicated that higher flows in each region result in increased survival rates. Survival estimates gathered in this study can help focus management and restoration actions over a relatively long migration corridor to specific regions of low survival, and provide guidance for management actions in the Sacramento River aimed at restoring populations of threatened Central Valley spring-run Chinook salmon.

California↗
USGS2019

Estimating spatial–temporal differences in Chinook salmon outmigration survival with habitat- and predation-related covariates

Low survival rates of Chinook salmon ( Oncorhynchus tshawytscha ) smolts in California’s Central Valley have been attributed to multiple biological and physical factors, but it is not clear which factors have the largest impact. We used 5 years of acoustic telemetry data for 1709 late-fall Chinook salmon smolts to evaluate the effect of habitat- and predation-related covariates on outmigration survival through the Sacramento River. Using a Cormack–Jolly–Seber mark–recapture model, we estimated survival rates both as a function of covariates (covariate model) and as a function of river location and release year (spatial–temporal model). Our covariate model was overwhelmingly supported as the preferred model based on model selection criteria, suggesting the covariates adequately replicated spatial and temporal patterns in smolt survival. The covariates in the selected model included individual fish covariates, habitat-specific covariates, and temporally variable physical conditions. The most important covariate affecting salmon survival was flow. We describe the importance of these parameters in the context of juvenile salmon predation risk and suggest that additional research on predator distribution and density could improve model estimates.

California↗
USGS2019

Changes in adult Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) survival within the lower Columbia River amid increasing pinniped abundance

Significant effort towards conservation has contributed to the recovery of historically depleted pinniped populations world-wide. However, in several locations where pinnipeds have increased, they have been blamed for preventing the recovery of commercially valuable fish species through predation. Prompted by increasing pinniped abundance within the Columbia River (CR) USA, over a six year period, we used Passive Integrated Transponder tags to measure the survival of adult spring-run Chinook salmon (Oncorhynchus tshawytscha) through the estuary and lower CR to Bonneville Dam (Rkm 234). We estimated 51 751 - 224 705 salmon died annually from sources other than harvest. Mixed-effects logistic regression modelling identified pinniped predation as the most likely source. The odds of survival was estimated to decrease by 32% (95% CI: 6%-51% decrease) for every additional 467 sea lions, and to increase by 32% (95% CI: 8%-61% increase) for every increase of 1.5 in the log of American shad (Alosa sapidissima), a potential prey item for sea lions. A third covariate was the adipose clip status of the fish, indicating whether it was eligible for harvest.

Oregon, Washington↗