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Mark D. Petersen

Publications and source records attributed to Mark D. Petersen.

81 records · Page 5Linked to original sources
USGS2008

Spatial seismicity rates and maximum magnitudes for background earthquakes

The background seismicity model is included to account for M 5.0 - 6.5 earthquakes on faults and for random M 5.0 ? 7.0 earthquakes that do not occur on faults included in the model (as in earlier models of Frankel et al., 1996, 2002 and Petersen et al., 1996). We include four different classes of earthquake sources in the California background seismicity model: (1) gridded (smoothed) seismicity, (2) regional background zones, (3) special fault zone models, and (4) shear zones (also referred to as C zones). The gridded (smoothed) seismicity model, the regional background zone model, and the special fault zones use a declustered earthquake catalog for calculation of earthquake rates. Earthquake rates in shear zones are estimated from the geodetically determined rate of deformation across an area of high strain rate. We use a truncated exponential (Gutenberg-Richter, 1944) magnitude-frequency distribution to account for earthquakes in the background models.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2008

Cascadia Subduction Zone

The geometry and recurrence times of large earthquakes associated with the Cascadia Subduction Zone (CSZ) were discussed and debated at a March 28-29, 2006 Pacific Northwest workshop for the USGS National Seismic Hazard Maps. The CSZ is modeled from Cape Mendocino in California to Vancouver Island in British Columbia. We include the same geometry and weighting scheme as was used in the 2002 model (Frankel and others, 2002) based on thermal constraints (Fig. 1; Fluck and others, 1997 and a reexamination by Wang et al., 2003, Fig. 11, eastern edge of intermediate shading). This scheme includes four possibilities for the lower (eastern) limit of seismic rupture: the base of elastic zone (weight 0.1), the base of transition zone (weight 0.2), the midpoint of the transition zone (weight 0.2), and a model with a long north-south segment at 123.8? W in the southern and central portions of the CSZ, with a dogleg to the northwest in the northern portion of the zone (weight 0.5). The latter model was derived from the approximate average longitude of the contour of the 30 km depth of the CSZ as modeled by Fluck et al. (1997). A global study of the maximum depth of thrust earthquakes on subduction zones by Tichelaar and Ruff (1993) indicated maximum depths of about 40 km for most of the subduction zones studied, although the Mexican subduction zone had a maximum depth of about 25 km (R. LaForge, pers. comm., 2006). The recent inversion of GPS data by McCaffrey et al. (2007) shows a significant amount of coupling (a coupling factor of 0.2-0.3) as far east as 123.8? West in some portions of the CSZ. Both of these lines of evidence lend support to the model with a north-south segment at 123.8? W.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2008

Comments on potential geologic and seismic hazards affecting proposed liquefied natural gas site in Santa Monica Bay, California

In a letter to the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) dated March 25, 2008, Representative Jane Harman (California 36th district) requested advice on geologic hazards that should be considered in the review of a proposed liquefied natural gas (LNG) facility off the California coast in Santa Monica Bay. In 2004, the USGS responded to a similar request from Representative Lois Capps, regarding two proposed LNG facilities offshore Ventura County, Calif., with a report summarizing potential geologic and seismic hazards (Ross and others, 2004). The proposed LNG Deepwater Port (DWP) facility includes single point moorings (SPMs) and 35 miles of underwater pipelines. The DWP submersible buoys, manifolds, and risers would be situated on the floor of the southern Santa Monica Basin, in 3,000 feet of water, about 23 miles offshore of the Palos Verdes Peninsula. Twin 24-inch diameter pipelines would extend northeastward from the buoys across the basin floor, up the basin slope and across the continental shelf, skirting north around the Santa Monica submarine canyon. Figure 1 provides locations of the project and geologic features. Acronyms are defined in table 1. This facility is being proposed in a region of known geologic hazards that arise from both the potential for strong earthquakes and geologic processes related to sediment transport and accumulation in the offshore environment. The probability of a damaging earthquake (considered here as magnitude 6.5 or greater) in the next 30 years within about 30 miles (50 km) of the proposed pipeline ranges from 16% at the pipeline's offshore end to 48% where it nears land (Petersen, 2008). Earthquakes of this magnitude are capable of producing strong shaking, surface fault offsets, liquefaction phenomena, landslides, underwater turbidity currents and debris flow avalanches, and tsunamis. As part of the DWP license application for the Woodside Natural Gas proposal in Santa Monica Bay (known as the OceanWay Secure Energy Project), Fugro West, Inc., had already prepared a document discussing geologic hazards in the area, titled 'Exhibit B Topic Report 6 - Geological Resources' (Fugro West, Inc., 2007); hereafter, this will be called the 'Geological Resources document'. The USGS agreed to evaluate the information in the Geological Resources document regarding (1) proximity of active faults to the proposed project, (2) potential magnitude of seismic events from nearby faults, (3) thoroughness of the assessment of earthquake hazards in general, (4) potential hazards from ground rupture and strong shaking, (5) potential hazards from tsunamis, and (6) other geologic hazards including landslides and debris flows. Because two new earthquake probability reports were scheduled to be released in mid-April, 2008, by the USGS and the California Geological Survey (CGS), the USGS suggested a 6-month review period to enable a thorough incorporation of this new information. Twenty-seven scientists from the USGS and the CGS reviewed various sections of the Geological Resources document. This report outlines our major conclusions. The appendix is a longer list of comments by these reviewers, grouped by section of the Geological Resources document. Before discussing our reviews, we first provide a brief overview of geologic hazards in the proposed site area. This report is a snapshot in time and any future work in the area will need to take into account ongoing research efforts. For example, USGS scientists collected seismic reflection data in the spring of 2008 to study the structure and seismic potential of several faults in the area. Their interpretations (Conrad and others, 2008a and 2008b) are too preliminary to be included in this report, but their final results, along with other researchers' studies in the project area, should be considered in any future work on the Deepwater Port project.

California↗
USGS2007

Revision of Time-Independent Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Maps for Alaska

We present here time-independent probabilistic seismic hazard maps of Alaska and the Aleutians for peak ground acceleration (PGA) and 0.1, 0.2, 0.3, 0.5, 1.0 and 2.0 second spectral acceleration at probability levels of 2 percent in 50 years (annual probability of 0.000404), 5 percent in 50 years (annual probability of 0.001026) and 10 percent in 50 years (annual probability of 0.0021). These maps represent a revision of existing maps based on newly obtained data and assumptions reflecting best current judgments about methodology and approach. These maps have been prepared following the procedures and assumptions made in the preparation of the 2002 National Seismic Hazard Maps for the lower 48 States. A significant improvement relative to the 2002 methodology is the ability to include variable slip rate along a fault where appropriate. These maps incorporate new data, the responses to comments received at workshops held in Fairbanks and Anchorage, Alaska, in May, 2005, and comments received after draft maps were posted on the National Seismic Hazard Mapping Web Site. These maps will be proposed for adoption in future revisions to the International Building Code. In this documentation we describe the maps and in particular explain and justify changes that have been made relative to the 1999 maps. We are also preparing a series of experimental maps of time-dependent hazard that will be described in future documents.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2006

Comparison of the historical record of earthquake hazard with seismic-hazard models for New Zealand and the continental United States

We compare the historical record of earthquake hazard experienced at 78 towns and cities (sites) distributed across New Zealand and the continental United States with the hazard estimated from the national probabilistic seismic-hazard (PSH) models for the two countries. The two PSH models are constructed with similar methodologies and data. Our comparisons show a tendency for the PSH models to slightly exceed the historical hazard in New Zealand and westernmost continental United States interplate regions, but show lower hazard than that of the historical record in the continental United States intraplate region. Factors such as non-Poissonian behavior, parameterization of active fault data in the PSH calculations, and uncertainties in estimation of ground-motion levels from historical felt intensity data for the interplate regions may have led to the higher-than-historical levels of hazard at the interplate sites. In contrast, the less-than-historical hazard for the remaining continental United States (intraplate) sites may be largely due to site conditions not having been considered at the intraplate sites, and uncertainties in correlating ground-motion levels to historical felt intensities. The study also highlights the importance of evaluating PSH models at more than one region, because the conclusions reached on the basis of a solely interplate or intraplate study would be very different.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗
USGS2005

Seismic-hazard maps for the conterminous United States

This publication consists of six map sheets (titles and text included in this document, below), geospatial datasets, and metadata. The geospatial datasets consist of ArcInfo export files for the seismic-hazard point and polygon data shown on the sheets. Probabilistic seismic-hazard maps were prepared for the conterminous United States portraying peak horizontal acceleration and horizontal spectral response acceleration for 0.2- and 1.0-second periods with probabilities of exceedance of 10 percent in 50 years and 2 percent in 50 years. All of the maps were prepared by combining the hazard derived from spatially smoothed historic seismicity with the hazard from fault-specific sources. The acceleration values contoured are the random horizontal component. The reference site condition is firm rock, defined as having an average shear-wave velocity of 760 m/sec in the top 30 meters corresponding to the boundary between NEHRP (National Earthquake Hazards Reduction program) site classes B and C. This data set represents the results of calculations of hazard curves for a grid of points with a spacing of 0.05 degrees in latitude and longitude. The points were contoured to produce the final representation of the seismic hazard.

Scientific Investigations Map↗
USGS2003

The Mw 7.7 Bhuj earthquake: Global lessons for earthquake hazard in intra-plate regions

The Mw 7.7 Bhuj earthquake occurred in the Kachchh District of the State of Gujarat, India on 26 January 2001, and was one of the most damaging intraplate earthquakes ever recorded. This earthquake is in many ways similar to the three great New Madrid earthquakes that occurred in the central United States in 1811-1812, An Indo-US team is studying the similarities and differences of these sequences in order to learn lessons for earthquake hazard in intraplate regions. Herein we present some preliminary conclusions from that study. Both the Kutch and New Madrid regions have rift type geotectonic setting. In both regions the strain rates are of the order of 10-9/yr and attenuation of seismic waves as inferred from observations of intensity and liquefaction are low. These strain rates predict recurrence intervals for Bhuj or New Madrid sized earthquakes of several thousand years or more. In contrast, intervals estimated from paleoseismic studies and from other independent data are significantly shorter, probably hundreds of years. All these observations together may suggest that earthquakes relax high ambient stresses that are locally concentrated by rheologic heterogeneities, rather than loading by plate-tectonic forces. The latter model generally underlies basic assumptions made in earthquake hazard assessment, that the long-term average rate of energy released by earthquakes is determined by the tectonic loading rate, which thus implies an inherent average periodicity of earthquake occurrence. Interpreting the observations in terms of the former model therefore may require re-examining the basic assumptions of hazard assessment.

Gujarat↗