Mark C. Mastin — Page 2

USGS2008

Modeling Water Temperature in the Yakima River, Washington, from Roza Diversion Dam to Prosser Dam, 2005-06

A mechanistic water-temperature model was constructed by the U.S. Geological Survey for use by the Bureau of Reclamation for studying the effect of potential water management decisions on water temperature in the Yakima River between Roza and Prosser, Washington. Flow and water temperature data for model input were obtained from the Bureau of Reclamation Hydromet database and from measurements collected by the U.S. Geological Survey during field trips in autumn 2005. Shading data for the model were collected by the U.S. Geological Survey in autumn 2006. The model was calibrated with data collected from April 1 through October 31, 2005, and tested with data collected from April 1 through October 31, 2006. Sensitivity analysis results showed that for the parameters tested, daily maximum water temperature was most sensitive to changes in air temperature and solar radiation. Root mean squared error for the five sites used for model calibration ranged from 1.3 to 1.9 degrees Celsius (?C) and mean error ranged from ?1.3 to 1.6?C. The root mean squared error for the five sites used for testing simulation ranged from 1.6 to 2.2?C and mean error ranged from 0.1 to 1.3?C. The accuracy of the stream temperatures estimated by the model is limited by four errors (model error, data error, parameter error, and user error).

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2008

Effects of Potential Future Warming on Runoff in the Yakima River Basin, Washington

The Bureau of Reclamation has implemented a long-term planning study of potential water-storage alternatives in the Yakima River Basin, which includes planning for climate change effects on available water resources in the basin. Previously constructed watershed models for the Yakima River Basin were used to simulate changes in unregulated streamflow under two warmer climate scenarios, one representing a 1 degree C increase in the annual air temperature over current conditions (plus one scenario) and one representing a 2 degree C increase in the annual air temperature over current conditions (plus two scenario). Simulations were done for water years 1981 through 2005 and the results were compared to simulated unregulated runoff for the same period using recorded daily precipitation, and minimum and maximum air temperatures (base conditions). Precipitation was not altered for the two warmer climate change scenarios. Simulated annual runoff for the plus one and plus two scenarios decreased modestly from the base conditions, but the seasonal distribution and the general pattern of runoff proved to be highly sensitive to temperature changes throughout the basin. Seasonally increased runoff was simulated during the late autumn and winter months for both the plus one and plus two scenarios compared to base conditions. Comparisons at six principal regulatory locations in the basin showed that the maximum percentage increases in runoff over the base conditions during December to March varied from 24 to 48 percent for the plus one scenario and 59 to 94 percent for the plus two scenario. During late spring and summer months, significantly decreased runoff was simulated at these sites for both scenarios compared to base conditions. Simulated maximum decreases in runoff occurred during June and July, and the changes ranged from -22 to -51 percent for the plus one scenario and -44 to -76 percent for the plus two scenario. Differences in total annual runoff at these sites ranged from -1.4 to -3.9 percent for the plus one scenario and from -2.5 to -8.2 percent for the plus two scenario. The percent change of the monthly mean runoff for both scenarios from the base conditions at many points in the basin will be used in a water-management model developed by the Bureau of Reclamation to assess various storage alternatives.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2002

Fifty-year flood-inundation maps for Catacamas, Honduras

After the devastating floods caused by Hurricane Mitch in 1998, maps of the areas and depths of the 50-year-flood inundation at 15 municipalities in Honduras were prepared as a tool for agencies involved in reconstruction and planning. This report, which is one in a series of 15, presents maps of areas in the municipality of Catacamas that would be inundated by a 50-year-flood of Rio Catacamas. Geographic Information System (GIS) coverages of the flood inundation are available on a computer in the municipality of Catacamas as part of the Municipal GIS project and on the Internet at the Flood Hazard Mapping Web page (http://mitchnts1.cr.usgs.gov/projects/ floodhazard.html). These coverages allow users to view the flood inundation in much more detail than is possible using the maps in this report. Water-surface elevations for a 50-year-flood on Rio Catacamas at Catacamas were estimated using HEC-RAS, a one-dimensional, steady-flow, step-backwater computer program. The channel and floodplain cross sections used in HEC-RAS were developed from an airborne light-detection-and-ranging (LIDAR) topographic survey of the area. The 50-year-flood discharge for Rio Catacamas at Catacamas, 216 cubic meters per second, was estimated using a regression equation that relates the 50-year-flood discharge to drainage area and mean annual precipitation because there are no long-term stream-gaging stations on the river from which to estimate the discharge. The drainage area and mean annual precipitation estimated for Rio Catacamas at Catacamas are 45.4 square kilometers and 1,773 millimeters, respectively.

Catacamas↗

USGS2002

Fifty-year flood-inundation maps for Choloma, Honduras

After the devastating floods caused by Hurricane Mitch in 1998, maps of the areas and depths of the 50-year-flood inundation at 15 municipalities in Honduras were prepared as a tool for agencies involved in reconstruction and planning. This report, which is one in a series of 15, presents maps of areas in the municipality of Choloma that would be inundated by a 50-year flood of Rio Choloma. Geographic Information System (GIS) coverages of the flood inundation are available on a computer in the municipality of Choloma as part of the in the Municipal GIS project and on the Internet at the Flood Hazard Mapping Web page (http://mitchnts1.cr.usgs.gov/projects/floodhazard.html). These coverages allow users to view the flood inundation in much more detail than is possible using the maps in this report. Water-surface elevations for a 50-year-flood on Rio Choloma at Choloma were determined using HEC-RAS, a one-dimensional, steady-flow, step-backwater computer program. The channel and floodplain cross sections used in HEC-RAS were developed from an airborne light detection and ranging (LIDAR) topographic survey of the area. There are no nearby long-term stream-gaging stations on Rio Choloma; therefore, the 50-year-flood discharge for Rio Choloma, 370 cubic meters per second, was estimated using a regression equation that relates the 50-year-flood discharge to drainage area and mean annual precipitation. The drainage area and mean annual precipitation estimated for Rio Choloma at Choloma are 89.5 square kilometers and 2,164 millimeters, respectively.

Choloma↗

USGS2002

Fifty-year flood-inundation maps for Choluteca, Honduras

After the devastating floods caused by Hurricane Mitch in 1998, maps of the areas and depths of 50-year-flood inundation at 15 municipalities in Honduras were prepared as a tool for agencies involved in reconstruction and planning. This report, which is one in a series of 15, presents maps of areas in the municipality of Choluteca that would be inundated by 50-year floods on Rio Choluteca and Rio Iztoca. Geographic Information System (GIS) coverages of the flood inundation are available on a computer in the municipality of Choluteca as part of the Municipal GIS project and on the Internet at the Flood Hazard Mapping Web page (http://mitchnts1.cr.usgs.gov/projects/floodhazard.html). These coverages allow users to view the flood inundation in much more detail than is possible using the maps in this report. Water-surface elevations for 50-year-floods on Rio Choluteca and Rio Iztoca at Choluteca were estimated using HEC-RAS, a one-dimensional, steady-flow, step-backwater computer program. The channel and floodplain cross sections used in HEC-RAS were developed from an airborne light-detection-and-ranging (LIDAR) topographic survey of the area. The estimated 50-year-flood discharge for Rio Choluteca at Choluteca is 4,620 cubic meters per second, which is the drainage-area-adjusted weighted-average of two independently estimated 50-year-flood discharges for the gaging station Rio Choluteca en Puente Choluteca. One discharge, 4,913 cubic meters per second, was estimated from a frequency analysis of the 17 years of peak discharge record for the gage, and the other, 2,650 cubic meters per second, was estimated from a regression equation that relates the 50-year-flood discharge to drainage area and mean annual precipitation. The weighted-average of the two discharges at the gage is 4,530 cubic meters per second. The 50-year-flood discharge for the study area reach of Rio Choluteca was estimated by multiplying the weighted discharge at the gage by the ratio of the drainage areas upstream from the two locations. The 50-year-flood discharge for Rio Iztoca, which was estimated from the regression equation, is 430 cubic meters per second.

Choluteca↗

USGS2002

Fifty-year flood-inundation maps for Comayagua, Hondura

After the devastating floods caused by Hurricane Mitch in 1998, maps of the areas and depths of the 50-year-flood inundation at 15 municipalities in Honduras were prepared as a tool for agencies involved in reconstruction and planning. This report, which is one in a series of 15, presents maps of areas in the municipality of Comayagua that would be inundated by 50-year floods on Rio Humuya and Rio Majada. Geographic Information System (GIS) coverages of the flood inundation are available on a computer in the municipality of Comayagua as part of the Municipal GIS project and on the Internet at the Flood Hazard Mapping Web page (http://mitchnts1.cr.usgs.gov/projects/floodhazard.html). These coverages allow users to view the flood inundation in much more detail than is possible using the maps in this report. Water-surface elevations for 50-year-floods on Rio Humuya and Rio Majada at Comayagua were estimated using HEC-RAS, a one-dimensional, steady-flow, step-backwater computer program. The channel and floodplain cross sections used in HEC-RAS were developed from an airborne light-detection-and-ranging (LIDAR) topographic survey of the area. The 50-year-flood discharge for Rio Humuya at Comayagua, 1,400 cubic meters per second, was estimated using a regression equation that relates the 50-year-flood discharge to drainage area and mean annual precipitation. The reasonableness of the regression discharge was evaluated by comparing it with drainage-area-adjusted 50-year-flood discharges estimated for three long-term Rio Humuya stream-gaging stations. The drainage-area-adjusted 50-year-flood discharges estimated from the gage records ranged from 946 to 1,365 cubic meters per second. Because the regression equation discharge agrees closely with the high end of the range of discharges estimated from the gaging-station records, it was used for the hydraulic modeling to ensure that the resulting 50-year-flood water-surface elevations would not be underestimated. The 50-year-flood discharge for Rio Majada at Comayagua (230 cubic meters per second) was estimated using the regression equation because there are no long-term gaging-stations on this river from which to estimate the discharge.

Comayagua↗

USGS2002

Fifty-year flood-inundation maps for El Progreso, Honduras

After the devastating floods caused by Hurricane Mitch in 1998, maps of the areas and depths of the 50-year-flood inundation at 15 municipalities in Honduras were prepared as a tool for agencies involved in reconstruction and planning. This report, which is one in a series of 15, presents maps of areas in the municipality of El Progreso that would be inundated by a 50-year flood of Rio Pelo. Geographic Information System (GIS) coverages of the flood inundation are available on a computer in the municipality of El Progreso as part of the Municipal GIS project and on the Internet at the Flood Hazard Mapping Web page (http://mitchnts1.cr.usgs.gov/projects/floodhazard.html). These coverages allow users to view the flood inundation in much more detail than is possible using the maps in this report. Water-surface elevations for a 50-year-flood on Rio Pelo at El Progreso were estimated using HEC-RAS, a one-dimensional, steady-flow, step-backwater computer program. The channel and floodplain cross sections used in HEC-RAS were developed from an airborne light-detection-and-ranging (LIDAR) topographic survey of the area. There are no nearby long-term stream-gaging stations on Rio Pelo; therefore, the 50-year-flood discharge for Rio Pelo, 235 cubic meters per second, was estimated using a regression equation that relates the 50-year-flood discharge to drainage area and mean annual precipitation. The drainage area and mean annual precipitation estimated for Rio Pelo at El Progreso are 47.4 square kilometers and 1,920 millimeters, respectively.

El Progreso↗

USGS2002

Fifty-year flood-inundation maps for La Lima, Honduras

After the devastating floods caused by Hurricane Mitch in 1998, maps of the areas and depths of the 50-year-flood inundation at 15 municipalities in Honduras were prepared as a tool for agencies involved in reconstruction and planning. This report, which is one in a series of 15, presents maps of areas in the municipality of La Lima that would be inundated by Rio Chamelecon with a discharge of 500 cubic meters per second, the approximate capacity of the river channel through the city of La Lima. The 50-year flood (2,400 cubic meters per second), the original design flow to be mapped, would inundate the entire area surveyed for this municipality. Because water-surface elevations of the 50-year flood could not be mapped properly without substantially expanding the area of the survey, the available data were used instead to estimate the channel capacity of Rio Chamelecon in La Lima by trial-and-error runs of different flows in a numerical model and to estimate the increase in height of levees needed to contain flows of 1,000 and 2,400 cubic meters per second. Geographic Information System (GIS) coverages of the flood inundation are available on a computer in the municipality of La Lima as part of the Municipal GIS project and on the Internet at the Flood Hazard Mapping Web page (http://mitchnts1.cr.usgs.gov/projects/floodhazard.html). These coverages allow users to view the flood inundation in much more detail than is possible using the maps in this report. Water-surface elevations for various discharges on Rio Chamelecon at La Lima were determined using HEC-RAS, a one-dimensional, steady-flow, step-backwater computer program. The channel and floodplain cross sections used in HEC-RAS were developed from an airborne light-detection-and-ranging (LIDAR) topographic survey of the area and ground surveys at three bridges. Top-of-levee or top-of-channel-bank elevations and locations at the cross sections were critical to estimating the channel capacity of Rio Chamelecon. These elevations and locations are provided along with the water-surface elevations for the 500-cubic-meter-per-second flow of Rio Chamelecon. Also, water-surface elevations of the 1,000 and 2,400 cubic-meter-per-second flows are provided, assuming that the existing levees are raised to contained the flows.

La Lima↗

USGS2002

Fifty-Year Flood-Inundation Maps for Santa Rosa de Aguan, Honduras

After the devastating floods caused by Hurricane Mitch in 1998, maps of the areas and depths of the 50-year-flood inundation at 15 municipalities in Honduras were prepared as a tool for agencies involved in reconstruction and planning. This report, which is one in a series of 15, presents maps of areas in the coastal municipality of Santa Rosa de Aguan that are prone to oceanic storm-surge flooding and wave action. The 50-year flood on the Rio Aguan (4,270 cubic meters per second), would inundate most of the area surveyed for this municipality and beyond. Therefore a detailed numerical hydraulic model was not developed for this municipality as it was for the others. The 50-year storm surge would likely produce higher water levels than the 50-year flood on the river during normal astronomical tides. The elevation of the 50-year storm surge was estimated to be 4.35 meters above normal sea level, based on hurricane probabilities and published storm-surge elevations associated with various hurricane categories. Flood-inundation maps, including areas of wave-action hazard and a color-shaded elevation map, were created from the available data and the estimated 50-year storm tide. Geographic Information System (GIS) coverages of the hazard areas are available on a computer in the municipality of Santa Rosa de Aguan as part of the Municipal GIS project and on the Internet at the Flood Hazard Mapping Data Web page (http://mitchnts1.cr.usgs.gov/projects/floodhazard.html). These coverages allow users to view the maps in much more detail than is possible using the maps in this report.

Santa Rosa de Aguan↗

USGS2002

Fifty-year flood-inundation maps for Siguatepeque, Honduras

After the devastating floods caused by Hurricane Mitch in 1998, maps of the areas and depths of the 50-year-flood inundation at 15 municipalities in Honduras were prepared as a tool for agencies involved in reconstruction and planning. This report, which is one in a series of 15, presents maps of areas in the municipality of Siguatepeque that would be inundated by 50-year floods on Rio Selguapa, Rio Guique, Rio Celan, Rio Calan, and Quebrada Chalantuma. Geographic Information System (GIS) coverages of the flood inundation are available on a computer in the municipality of Siguatepeque as part of the Municipal GIS project and on the Internet at the Flood Hazard Mapping Web page (http://mitchnts1.cr.usgs.gov/projects/floodhazard.html). These coverages allow users to view the flood inundation in much more detail than is possible using the maps in this report. Water-surface elevations for 50-year-floods on each of the streams studied were computed using HEC-RAS, a one-dimensional, steady-flow, step-backwater computer program. The channel and floodplain cross sections used in HEC-RAS were developed from an airborne light-detection-and-ranging (LIDAR) topographic survey of the area and ground surveys at six bridges. There are no nearby long-term stream-gaging stations on any of the streams studied; therefore, the 50-year-flood discharges were estimated using a regression equation that relates the 50-year-flood discharge to drainage area and mean annual precipitation. The 50-year-flood discharges estimated for Rio Selguapa, Rio Guique, Rio Celan, Rio Calan, and Quebrada Chalantuma are 323, 168, 161, 146, and 90 cubic meters per second, respectively.

Siguatepeque↗

USGS2002

Fifty-year flood-inundation maps for Sonaguera, Honduras

After the devastating floods caused by Hurricane Mitch in 1998, maps of the areas and depths of the 50-year-flood inundation at 15 municipalities in Honduras were prepared as a tool for agencies involved in reconstruction and planning. This report, which is one in a series of 15, presents maps of areas in the municipality of Sonaguera that would be inundated by a 50-year flood of Rio Sonaguera and its tributary, Rio Juan Lazaro. Geographic Information System (GIS) coverages of the flood inundation are available on a computer in the municipality of Sonaguera as part of the Municipal GIS project and on the Internet at the Flood Hazard Mapping Web page (http://mitchnts1.cr.usgs.gov/projects/floodhazard.html). These coverages allow users to view the flood inundation in much more detail than is possible using the maps in this report. Water-surface elevations for an estimated 50-year-flood on Rio Sonaguera and Rio Juan Lazaro at Sonaguera were determined using HEC-RAS, a one-dimensional, steady-flow, step-backwater computer program. The channel and floodplain cross sections used in HEC-RAS were developed from an airborne light-detection-and-ranging (LIDAR) topographic survey of the area and a ground survey at the bridge. There are no nearby long-term stream-gaging stations on Rio Sonaguera or Rio Juan Lazaro; therefore, the 50-year-flood discharge for Rio Sonaguera above the confluence with Rio Juan Lazaro, 194 cubic meters per second; for Rio Juan Lazaro at its mouth, 168 cubic meters per second, and for Rio Sonaguera at the downstream end of the study area, 282 cubic meters per second; were estimated using a regression equation that relates the 50-year-flood discharge to drainage area and mean annual precipitation.

Sonaguera↗

USGS2002

Fifty-year flood-inundation maps for Tocoa, Honduras

After the devastating floods caused by Hurricane Mitch in 1998, maps of the areas and depths of the 50-year-flood inundation at 15 municipalities in Honduras were prepared as a tool for agencies involved in reconstruction and planning. This report, which is one in a series of 15, presents maps of areas in the municipality of Tocoa that would be inundated by a 50-year flood of Rio Tocoa. Geographic Information System (GIS) coverages of the flood inundation are available on a computer in the municipality of Tocoa as part of the Municipal GIS project and on the Internet at the Flood Hazard Mapping Web page (http://mitchnts1.cr.usgs.gov/projects/floodhazard.html). These coverages allow users to view the flood inundation in much more detail than is possible using the maps in this report. Water-surface elevations for an estimated 50-year-flood on Rio Tocoa at Tocoa were estimated using HEC-RAS, a one-dimensional, steady-flow, step-backwater computer program. The channel and floodplain cross sections used in HEC-RAS were developed from an airborne light-detection-and-ranging (LIDAR) topographic survey of the area and a ground survey at one bridge. There are no nearby long-term stream-gaging stations on Rio Tocoa; therefore, the 50-year-flood discharge for Rio Tocoa, 552 cubic meters per second, was estimated using a regression equation that relates the 50-year-flood discharge to drainage area and mean annual precipitation. The drainage area and mean annual precipitation estimated for Rio Tocoa at Tocoa are 204 square kilometers and 1,987 millimeters, respectively. It was assumed that a portion of the 50-year flood, 200 cubic meters per second, would escape the main channel and flow down a side channel before re-entering the main channel again near the lower end of the study area.

Tocoa↗

USGS2002

Documentation of Precipitation Runoff Modeling System modules for the Modular Modeling System modified for the Watershed and River Systems Management Program

A decision support system is being developed by the U.S. Geological Survey and the U.S. Bureau of Reclamation as part of a long-term project, the Watershed and River Systems Management Program. The goal of the program is to apply the decision support system to U.S. Bureau of Reclamation projects in the western United States. An important component of the decision support system is the physical hydrology modeling, which consists of watershed models using the U.S. Geological Survey's Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System within the Modular Modeling System. To construct models and to enhance the tools for the application of the decision support system, selected Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System modules were modified or developed. These modules are documented in this report.

Open-File Report↗