Geology topics

Manuela M.P. Huso

Publications and source records attributed to Manuela M.P. Huso.

7 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2015

Estimating wind-turbine-caused bird and bat fatality when zero carcasses are observed

Many wind-power facilities in the United States have established effective monitoring programs to determine turbine-caused fatality rates of birds and bats, but estimating the number of fatalities of rare species poses special difficulties. The loss of even small numbers of individuals may adversely affect fragile populations, but typically, few (if any) carcasses are observed during monitoring. If monitoring design results in only a small proportion of carcasses detected, then finding zero carcasses may give little assurance that the number of actual fatalities is small. Fatality monitoring at wind-power facilities commonly involves conducting experiments to estimate the probability ( g ) an individual will be observed, accounting for the possibilities that it falls in an unsearched area, is scavenged prior to detection, or remains undetected even when present. When g < 1, the total carcass count ( X ) underestimates the total number of fatalities ( M ). Total counts can be 0 when M is small or when M is large and g ≪1. Distinguishing these two cases is critical when estimating fatality of a rare species. Observing no individuals during searches may erroneously be interpreted as evidence of absence. We present an approach that uses Bayes' theorem to construct a posterior distribution for M , i.e., P ( M | X , ĝ ), reflecting the observed carcass count and previously estimated g . From this distribution, we calculate two values important to conservation: the probability that M is below a predetermined limit and the upper bound ( M * ) of the 100(1 − α)% credible interval for M . We investigate the dependence of M * on α, g , and the prior distribution of M , asking what value of g is required to attain a desired M * for a given α. We found that when g < ~0.15, M * was clearly influenced by the mean and variance of ĝ and the choice of prior distribution for M , but the influence of these factors is minimal when g > ~0.45. Further, we develop extensions for temporal replication that can inform prior distributions of M and methods for combining information across several areas or time periods. We apply the method to data collected at a wind-power facility where scheduled searches yielded X = 0 raptor carcasses

Ecological Applications↗

USGS2015

Behavior of the Hawaiian Hawaiian Hoary Bat (Lasiurus cinereus semotus) at wind turbines and its distribution across the North Ko'olau Mountains, O'ahu

We studied the landscape distribution of endemic Hawaiian hoary bats (Lasiurus cinereus semotus ) on the north Ko‘olau Mountains of O‘ahu, Hawai‘i, from May 2013 to May 2014, while simultaneously studying their behavior at wind turbines within the broader landscape. This research aimed to assess the risk that wind turbines pose to bats on the island and integrated a variety of methods, including acoustic monitoring, thermal videography, and fatality searches.Our findings indicate that hoary bats were acoustically cryptic and occurred sparsely in the region. Overall site occupancy rate was 55% during the 1-year period of acoustic monitoring at 23 sites, and there was only an 8% chance of acoustically detecting a bat on a given night if it was present. We detected bats less frequently in windward northern parts of the study area and at windy, lower-elevation sites with rough terrain. Bats were detected more frequently in leeward southern parts of the study area and at wind-sheltered, higher-elevation sites with flat ridgetops. Acoustic detections were consistently low from October through February and increased at most sites to peak in April through August. However, meteorological conditions were not found to be associated with the acoustic prevalence of bats on a night-to-night basis. We observed more than three thousand events involving bats during six months of nightly video surveillance at four wind turbines. Video monitoring revealed several links to weather at the local scale, despite acoustic detections not clearly relating to weather in our broader landscape analysis. Video demonstrated bats occurring near turbines more often on nights with little rain, warmer temperatures, moderate wind speeds, low humidity, and the low but rising barometric pressures indicative of fair weather and improved foraging conditions. Video monitoring also demonstrated that the presence of bats near turbines strongly correlates with insect presence. We detected bats on video rather infrequently, averaging only one to two passes per hour. Most detections were brief (median = 4.0 sec) and involved single bats (97%), with the amount of time during which bats were observed totaling to only 0.10% of the video analyzed (about 3.8 hours of 3,847 total hours). Bats frequently foraged in the airspace near turbines. These results differ from a recent similar study on the mainland (continental North America) and may indicate that Hawaiian hoary bats spend less time closely approaching wind turbines and show less interest in them than their more-migratory mainland conspecifics. We speculate that the Hawaiian hoary bats we observed were locally resident and frequenting high-quality habitat near familiar structures. In contrast, hoary bats observed at wind facilities on the mainland appear to approach and investigate unfamiliar landscape structures that they mistake for trees as they migrate long distances. Consequently, Hawaiian hoary bats may be less susceptible to fatality at wind turbines on a per-encounter basis than hoary bats in North America. Only one bat carcass was found at the four turbines searched daily for six months. The relatively high probability of finding carcasses provided strong assurance that few carcasses were likely missed—there was less than a 10% chance that total fatality at the four turbines monitored for half a year exceeded three bats.

Hawaii↗

USGS2014

A comment on "bats killed in large numbers at United States wind energy facilities"

Widespread reports of bat fatalities caused by wind turbines have raised concerns about the impacts of wind power development. Reliable estimates of the total number killed and the potential effects on populations are needed, but it is crucial that they be based on sound data. In a recent BioScience article, Hayes (2013) estimated that over 600,000 bats were killed at wind turbines in the United States in 2012. The scientific errors in the analysis are numerous, with the two most serious being that the included sites constituted a convenience sample, not a representative sample, and that the individual site estimates are derived from such different methodologies that they are inherently not comparable. This estimate is almost certainly inaccurate, but whether the actual number is much smaller, much larger, or about the same is uncertain. An accurate estimate of total bat fatality is not currently possible, given the shortcomings of the available data.

BioScience↗

USGS2014

Accounting for unsearched areas in estimating wind turbine-caused fatality

With wind energy production expanding rapidly, concerns about turbine-induced bird and bat fatality have grown and the demand for accurate estimation of fatality is increasing. Estimation typically involves counting carcasses observed below turbines and adjusting counts by estimated detection probabilities. Three primary sources of imperfect detection are 1) carcasses fall into unsearched areas, 2) carcasses are removed or destroyed before sampling, and 3) carcasses present in the searched area are missed by observers. Search plots large enough to comprise 100% of turbine-induced fatality are expensive to search and may nonetheless contain areas unsearchable because of dangerous terrain or impenetrable brush. We evaluated models relating carcass density to distance from the turbine to estimate the proportion of carcasses expected to fall in searched areas and evaluated the statistical cost of restricting searches to areas near turbines where carcass density is highest and search conditions optimal. We compared 5 estimators differing in assumptions about the relationship of carcass density to distance from the turbine. We tested them on 6 different carcass dispersion scenarios at each of 3 sites under 2 different search regimes. We found that even simple distance-based carcass-density models were more effective at reducing bias than was a 5-fold expansion of the search area. Estimators incorporating fitted rather than assumed models were least biased, even under restricted searches. Accurate estimates of fatality at wind-power facilities will allow critical comparisons of rates among turbines, sites, and regions and contribute to our understanding of the potential environmental impact of this technology.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS2013

Evaluating the effectiveness of an ultrasonic acoustic deterrent for reducing bat fatalities at wind turbines

Large numbers of bats are killed by wind turbines worldwide and minimizing fatalities is critically important to bat conservation and acceptance of wind energy development. We implemented a 2-year study testing the effectiveness of an ultrasonic acoustic deterrent for reducing bat fatalities at a wind energy facility in Pennsylvania. We randomly selected control and treatment turbines that were searched daily in summer and fall 2009 and 2010. Estimates of fatality, corrected for field biases, were compared between treatment and control turbines. In 2009, we estimated 21–51% fewer bats were killed per treatment turbine than per control turbine. In 2010, we determined an approximate 9% inherent difference between treatment and control turbines and when factored into our analysis, variation increased and between 2% more and 64% fewer bats were killed per treatment turbine relative to control turbines. We estimated twice as many hoary bats were killed per control turbine than treatment turbine, and nearly twice as many silver-haired bats in 2009. In 2010, although we estimated nearly twice as many hoary bats and nearly 4 times as many silver-haired bats killed per control turbine than at treatment turbines during the treatment period, these only represented an approximate 20% increase in fatality relative to the pre-treatment period for these species when accounting for inherent differences between turbine sets. Our findings suggest broadband ultrasound broadcasts may reduce bat fatalities by discouraging bats from approaching sound sources. However, effectiveness of ultrasonic deterrents is limited by distance and area ultrasound can be broadcast, in part due to rapid attenuation in humid conditions. We caution that an operational deterrent device is not yet available and further modifications and experimentation are needed. Future efforts must also evaluate cost-effectiveness of deterrents in relation to curtailment strategies to allow a cost-benefit analysis for mitigating bat fatalities.

Pennsylvania↗

USGS2013

A comment on "Novel scavenger removal trials increase wind turbine-caused avian fatality estimates"

In a recent paper, Smallwood et al. (2010) conducted a study to compare their “novel” approach to conducting carcass removal trials with what they term the “conventional” approach and to evaluate the effects of the different methods on estimated avian fatality at a wind power facility in California. A quick glance at Table 3 that succinctly summarizes their results and provides estimated fatality rates and 80% confidence intervals calculated using the 2 methods reveals a surprising result. The confidence intervals of all of their estimates and most of the conventional estimates extend below 0. These results imply that wind turbines may have the capacity to create live birds. But a more likely interpretation is that a serious error occurred in the calculation of either the average fatality rate or its standard error or both. Further evaluation of their methods reveals that the scientific basis for concluding that “many estimates of scavenger removal rates prior to [their] study were likely biased low due to scavenger swamping” and “previously reported estimates of avian fatality rates … should be adjusted upwards” was not evident in their analysis and results. Their comparison to conventional approaches was not applicable, their statistical models were questionable, and the conclusions they drew were unsupported.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗

USGS2013

Management, morphological, and environmental factors influencing Douglas-fir bark furrows in the Oregon Coast Range

Many land managers in the Pacific Northwest have the goal of increasing late-successional forest structures. Despite the documented importance of Douglas-fir tree bark structure in forested ecosystems, little is known about factors influencing bark development and how foresters can manage development. This study investigated the relative importance of tree size, growth, environmental factors, and thinning on Douglas-fir bark furrow characteristics in the Oregon Coast Range. Bark furrow depth, area, and bark roughness were measured for Douglas-fir trees in young heavily thinned and unthinned sites and compared to older reference sites. We tested models for relationships between bark furrow response and thinning, tree diameter, diameter growth, and environmental factors. Separately, we compared bark responses measured on trees used by bark-foraging birds with trees with no observed usage. Tree diameter and diameter growth were the most important variables in predicting bark characteristics in young trees. Measured environmental variables were not strongly related to bark characteristics. Bark furrow characteristics in old trees were influenced by tree diameter and surrounding tree densities. Young trees used by bark foragers did not have different bark characteristics than unused trees. Efforts to enhance Douglas-fir bark characteristics should emphasize retention of larger diameter trees' growth enhancement.

Oregon↗