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Geology topics

M.C. Runge

Publications and source records attributed to M.C. Runge.

24 records · Page 2Linked to original sources
USGS2004

The importance of environmental variability and management control error to optimal harvest policies

State-dependent strategies (SDSs) are the most general form of harvest policy because they allow the harvest rate to depend, without constraint, on the state of the system. State-dependent strategies that provide an optimal harvest rate for any system state can be calculated, and stochasticity can be appropriately accommodated in this optimization. Stochasticity poses 2 challenges to harvest policies: (1) the population will never be at the equilibrium state; and (2) stochasticity induces uncertainty about future states. We investigated the effects of 2 types of stochasticity, environmental variability and management control error, on SDS harvest policies for a white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ) model, and contrasted these with a harvest policy based on maximum sustainable yield (MSY). Increasing stochasticity resulted in more conservative SDSs; that is, higher population densities were required to support the same harvest rate, but these effects were generally small. As stochastic effects increased, SDSs performed much better than MSY. Both deterministic and stochastic SDSs maintained maximum mean annual harvest yield (AHY) and optimal equilibrium population size (Neq) in a stochastic environment, whereas an MSY policy could not. We suggest 3 rules of thumb for harvest management of long-lived vertebrates in stochastic systems: (1) an SDS is advantageous over an MSY policy, (2) using an SDS rather than an MSY is more important than whether a deterministic or stochastic SDS is used, and (3) for SDSs, rankings of the variability in management outcomes (e.g., harvest yield) resulting from parameter stochasticity can be predicted by rankings of the deterministic elasticities.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗
USGS2004

Exploitation

Explore the source record for details and available documents.

Book chapter↗
USGS2002

Ecological and evolutionary traps

Organisms often rely on environmental cues to make behavioral and life-history decisions. However, in environments that have been altered suddenly by humans, formerly reliable cues might no longer be associated with adaptive outcomes. In such cases, organisms can become 'trapped' by their evolutionary responses to the cues and experience reduced survival or reproduction. Ecological traps occur when organisms make poor habitat choices based on cues that correlated formerly with habitat quality. Ecological traps are part of a broader phenomenon, evolutionary traps, involving a dissociation between cues that organisms use to make any behavioral or life-history decision and outcomes normally associated with that decision. A trap can lead to extinction if a population falls below a critical size threshold before adaptation to the novel environment occurs. Conservation and management protocols must be designed in light of, rather than in spite of, the behavioral mechanisms and evolutionary history of populations and species to avoid 'trapping' them.

Trends in Ecology and Evolution↗
USGS2002

The importance of functional form in optimal control solutions of problems in population dynamics

Optimal control theory is finding increased application in both theoretical and applied ecology, and it is a central element of adaptive resource management. One of the steps in an adaptive management process is to develop alternative models of system dynamics, models that are all reasonable in light of available data, but that differ substantially in their implications for optimal control of the resource. We explored how the form of the recruitment and survival functions in a general population model for ducks affected the patterns in the optimal harvest strategy, using a combination of analytical, numerical, and simulation techniques. We compared three relationships between recruitment and population density (linear, exponential, and hyperbolic) and three relationships between survival during the nonharvest season and population density (constant, logistic, and one related to the compensatory harvest mortality hypothesis). We found that the form of the component functions had a dramatic influence on the optimal harvest strategy and the ultimate equilibrium state of the system. For instance, while it is commonly assumed that a compensatory hypothesis leads to higher optimal harvest rates than an additive hypothesis, we found this to depend on the form of the recruitment function, in part because of differences in the optimal steady-state population density. This work has strong direct consequences for those developing alternative models to describe harvested systems, but it is relevant to a larger class of problems applying optimal control at the population level. Often, different functional forms will not be statistically distinguishable in the range of the data. Nevertheless, differences between the functions outside the range of the data can have an important impact on the optimal harvest strategy. Thus, development of alternative models by identifying a single functional form, then choosing different parameter combinations from extremes on the likelihood profile may end up producing alternatives that do not differ as importantly as if different functional forms had been used. We recommend that biological knowledge be used to bracket a range of possible functional forms, and robustness of conclusions be checked over this range.

Ecology↗
USGS2002

Demography of a population collapse: The Northern Idaho ground squirrel (Spermophilus brunneus brunneus)

We studied the demography of a population of Northern Idaho ground squirrels ( Spermophilus brunneus brunneus ) in Adams Co., Idaho. The population was completely censused yearly from 1987 to 1999, during which time it declined from 272 to 10 animals. The finite population growth rate, based on a Leslie matrix model of average life-history parameters, was only 0.72 (i.e., significantly <1.0). Growth rate was more sensitive to proportional changes in juvenile female survival than to any other single life-history parameter. Comparisons with self-sustaining populations of closely related ground squirrel species revealed that juvenile survival and breeding rates of yearling females were anomalously low. We believe that the ultimate cause of the population's collapse was inadequacy of food resources, particularly seeds, due to drying of the habitat and changes in plant species composition, likely the result of fire suppression and grazing. No 'rescue' by immigration occurred, probably because S. b. brunneus seldom disperse long distances and fire suppression has allowed conifers to encroach on inhabited meadows, shrinking them and closing dispersal routes. The proximate cause of the population's collapse was mortality of older breeding females, which reduced the mean age of breeders. Younger females had lower average pregnancy rates and litter sizes. To place our results in context we developed a new, general classification of anthropogenic population declines, based on whether they are caused by changes in the means of the life-history parameters (blatant disturbances), their variances (inappropriate variations), or the correlations among them (evolutionary traps). Many S. b. brunneus populations have disappeared in recent years, apparently due to blatant disturbances, especially loss of habitat and changes in food-plant composition, resulting in inadequate prehibernation nutrition and starvation overwinter. In addition, our study population may have been caught in an evolutionary trap, because the vegetational cues that could potentially enable the animals to adjust reproduction to the anticipated food supply no longer correlate with availability of fat-laden seeds.

Idaho↗