Geology topics

M. Lisowski

Publications and source records attributed to M. Lisowski.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2012

Coseismic displacements: 1992 Landers, California, earthquake

The rupture associated with the 1992 Landers earthquake ( M s = 7.5) extended along the west edge of a 60 × 50 km trilateration network that had been surveyed two months before the earthquake and was resurveyed a month after it. The coseismic displacement field within the network was calculated from the changes observed in the trilateration network supplemented by the displacements measured at four GPS stations and other less timely trilateration measurements. Stations near the rupture were displaced by as much as 3 m. The observed changes are reproduced reasonably well by dislocation modeling in which the Landers rupture is represented by 8 vertical fault segments, each extending from the surface to 9 km depth. Two additional segments represent the Big Bear and Eureka Peak faults. The average modeled right-lateral slip on the Landers rupture is about 5 m. However, the residuals for the best-fit slip distribution are about four times greater than expected from measurement error. Given that uncertainty, a broad range of slip models furnish acceptable fits to the data. The large residuals are attributed to inelastic deformation (principally sympathetic slip on numerous unmodeled faults) within the fault blocks assumed to be elastic in the model.

Geophysical Research Letters↗

USGS2012

Historic creep rate and potential for seismic slip along the Hayward Fault, California

The Hayward fault is considered the most likely source of one or more major earthquakes in the San Francisco Bay area in the next few decades. Historically, at least one, and probably two, major earthquakes (about M 6.8) occurred along the Hayward fault, one in 1836 and another in 1868. Little is known about the 1836 event, but the 1868 earthquake was accompanied by a surface rupture that extended as much as 41 km along the southern part of the fault. Although the amount of surface slip in 1868 is uncertain, right slip (including afterslip) reached at least several centimeters, and possibly several decimeters in places. This paper documents the spatial variation of creep rate along the Hayward fault since the 1868 earthquake. Creep (aseismic fault slip) occurs over at least 66 km and may extend over the fault's entire 82-km length, of which about 13 km lies underwater. Creep rate seems nearly constant over decades, but short-term variations occur. We derive creep rate mainly from our own systematic surveying of offset cultural features (curbs, fences, and buildings). On each feature we solve directly for accumulated creep by using multiple linear regression. Creep rate mostly falls in the range of 3.5–6.5 mm/yr; but systematic variation occurs along strike. Fault segments with distinctly higher and lower rates generally correspond to parts of the fault most salient from the overall average alinement of the fault. Most distinctive is a 4-km-long section near the south end of the fault that creeps at about 9 mm/yr. Such a high rate has occurred there at least since the 1920s and probably since the 1868 earthquake, as indicated by an offset railroad track built in 1869. We suggest that this 9 mm/yr slip rate may approach the long-term or deep slip rate that controls average recurrence interval between major earthquakes. If so, assuming an elastic rebound model, the potential for slip in large earthquakes below the surficial creeping zone is now &sim;1.1 m in the southern (1868) segment of the fault and ≥ 1.4 m in the northern (1836?) segment. Subtracting surface creep rates from a long-term slip rate of 9 mm/yr gives present potential for surface slip in large earthquakes of up to 0.8 m, with an average of 0.6 m in the northern segment and 0.4 m in the southern segment. We present a simple hypothesis for rupture potential that is compatible with historic creep rate, microseismicity distribution, and geodetic data. If seismic rupture occurs on segments 41 km long by 10 km deep (7 km fully locked, 3 km creeping), today's potential for seismic moment release is 1.4 × 10 19 and 1.1 × 10 19 N m for both 1836? and 1868 segments, respectively, and 2.5 × 10 19 N m for both segments jointly. Converting moment to magnitude gives M L 6.8 in the northern segment, M L 6.7 in the southern segment, and M L 7.0 for simultaneous rupture of both.

California↗

USGS2012

Inferred depth of creep on the Hayward Fault, central California

A relation between creep rate at the surface trace of a fault, the depth to the bottom of the creeping zone, and the rate of stress accumulation on the fault is derived from Weertman's 1964 friction model of slip on a fault. A 5 ± 1 km depth for the creeping zone on the Hayward fault is estimated from the measured creep rate (5 mm/yr) at the fault trace and the rate of stress increase on the upper segment of the fault trace inferred from geodetic measurements across the San Francisco Bay area. Although fault creep partially accommodates the secular slip rate on the Hayward fault, a slip deficit is accumulating equivalent to a magnitude 6.6 earthquake on each 40 km segment of the fault each century. Thus, the current behavior of the fault is consistent with its seismic history, which includes two moderate earthquakes in the mid-1800's.

Journal of Geophysical Research↗

USGS2012

Interseismic deformation along the San Andreas Fault in southern California

Eight trilateration networks located along the San Andreas fault in southern California have been surveyed 8 to 19 times within a 14- to 17-year interval between 1971 and 1992. The data, measurements of distances between the same 10 to 32 pairs of geodetic monuments within a network in each of the surveys, have been corrected for coseismic offsets from nearby earthquakes calculated from dislocation models. The corrected data, a total of 2027 measurements, are displayed in the form of plots of measured distance versus time for each of the 167 lines measured. The hypothesis that the interseismic deformation is steady is tested by examining whether deviations from linear fits to the data in the plots are within the range expected for observational error. A significant deviation from steady deformation is found only for the network located neax Palmdale, California. In that network, many of the measurements made in the survey of early 1982 deviate from the trend defined by the measurements in other surveys. The deviations are not of the form (fixed proportional error) one would generally expect from systematic survey error. If the survey of early 1982 is excluded, the remaining data at Palmdale are consistent with steady deformation. Thus the apparent strain event observed near Palmdale in 1982 was transient.

Journal of Geophysical Research↗

USGS2012

Strain accumulation across the Denali fault in the Delta River canyon, Alaska

Deformation along the Denali fault in the Delta River canyon was determined from geodetic surveys in 1941/1942, 1970, 1975, and 1979. The data were best for the 1975–1979 interval; in that period the average strain accumulation was essentially pure right lateral shear at a rate of 0.6 ± 0.1 μrad/a (a is years) (engineering shear) across a vertical plane striking N87°E. The plane of maximum shear is rotated about 30° counterclockwise from the local strike of the Denali fault but closely coincides with the strike of a major linear segment of the fault that begins 50 km farther west. The deformation between 1941/1942 and 1970 is consistent with a similar rate of strain accumulation if one removes the coseismic strain step contributed by the 1964 Alaska earthquake. The 1970–1975 deformation is poorly defined owing to uncertainties in the 1970 survey, but the strain accumulation during that period is certainly much less than during the 1975–1979 interval. The 1975–1979 strain accumulation is interpreted by means of a dislocation model which suggests that the Denali fault in the vicinity of the Delta River Canyon behaves as a leaky transform fault (i.e., a source of spreading as well as lateral slip). The block south of the Denali fault appears to be moving westward (parallel to the strike of the Denali fault west of the 147th meridian) at the rate of about 20 mm/a relative to the North American plate. Because the linear segment of the Denali fault east of the 147th meridian (along which the geodetic network is located) strikes N63°W, accommodation of the westward motion of the southern block requires some spreading within the fault zone as well as right lateral slip on the fault.

Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth↗

USGS2012

Strain accumulation in southern California, 1973-1980

Frequent surveys of seven trilateration networks in southern California over the interval 1973–1980 suggest that a regional increment in strain may have occurred in 1978–1979. Prior to 1978 and after late 1979 the strain accumulation has been predominantly a uniaxial north-south compression. This secular trend was interrupted sometime in 1978–1979 by an increment in both north-south and east-west extension in five of the seven networks. The onset of this change appears to have occurred first in the networks farthest south. The changes occurred without any unusual seismicity within the networks, but the overall seismicity in southern California was unusually low prior to and has been unusually high since the occurrence. The average principal strain rates for the seven networks in the 1973–1980 interval are 0.17 μstrain/yr north-south contraction and 0.08 μstrain/yr east-west extension. Although the observed increment in strain could be related to unidentified systematic error in the measuring system, a careful review of the measurements and comparisons with three other measuring systems reveal no appreciable cumulative systematic error.

Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth↗

USGS2012

The 1979 Homestead Valley earthquake sequence, California: Control of aftershocks and postseismic deformation

The coseismic slip and geometry of the March 15, 1979, Homestead Valley, California, earthquake sequence are well constrained by precise horizontal and vertical geodetic observations and by data from a dense local seismic network. These observations indicate 0.52±0.10 m of right-lateral slip and 0.17±0.04 m of reverse slip on a buried vertical 6-km-long and 5-km-deep fault and yield a mean static stress drop of 7.2±1.3 MPa. The largest shock had M S = 5.6. Observations of the ground rupture revealed up to 0.1 m of right-lateral slip on two mapped faults that are subparallel to the modeled seismic slip plane. In the 1.9 years since the earthquakes, geodetic network displacements indicate that an additional 60±10 mm of postseismic creep took place. The rate of postseismic shear strain (0.53±0.13 μrad/yr) measured within a 30×30-km network centered on the principal events was anomalously high compared to its preearthquake value and the postseismic rate in the adjacent network. This transient cannot be explained by postseismic slip on the seismic fault but rather indicates that broadscale release of strain followed the earthquake sequence. We have calculated the postearthquake stress field caused by the modeled coseismic slip. We assume that failure is promoted when the sum of the shear stress plus 0.75 times the faultopening stress increases. Most aftershocks concentrate at points where the stresses are enhanced by 0.3 MPa (3 bars) or more; aftershocks are nearly absent where postearthquake stresses decrease by 0.3–0.5 MPa. Isolated off-fault clusters of aftershocks that locate at one fault length from the rupture plane are explainable by this hypothesis. We find that ground rupture and postseismic creep take place where near-surface stresses are calculated to increase within the preexisting fault zones. Two patches that extend 4 km from both ends of the seismic fault exhibited neither aftershocks nor measurable postseismic creep. The sensitivity of aftershocks and ground rupture to changes in stress that are less than 5% of the earthquake stress drop demonstrates that the region around the earthquakes was within a few percent of its failure threshold before the main shocks. The preearthquake stress field and the stress required for failure must also have been nearly uniform.

Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth↗

USGS2012

Deformation in the Yakataga seismic gap, Southern Alaska, 1980-1986

A 60-by-40-km trilateration network in the Yakataga seismic gap was surveyed in 1980, 1982, 1984, and 1986 with precise electro-optical distance-measuring equipment to measure strain accumulation. The overall deformation is roughly approximated by a 0.24±0.03 µstrain/yr N32°W±2.4° uniaxial contraction that is uniform in time. However, the spatial distribution of deformation shows some concentration of convergence in the neighborhood of the Chugach-St. Elias fault and of right-lateral shear across the Contact fault. A simple dislocation model of the plate interaction in the Yakataga gap fits the observed deformation reasonably well but seems to require that the motion of the Pacific plate relative to the North American plate be directed more nearly N36°W than N15°W, the generally accepted direction of relative motion for this location. However, the direction of plate motion inferred from the dislocation model depends upon details of the interaction at the plate boundary that may not have been modeled accurately. A nearby but smaller trilateration network at Icy Bay was surveyed in 1982, 1984, and 1986. This network spans the southwest corner of the rupture zone of the 1979 St. Elias earthquake. The deformation at Icy Bay consists of left-lateral shear across a northeast trending zone. The relation of this deformation to strain accumulation in the Yakataga gap, postseismic relaxation associated with the 1979 earthquake, or rebound from the unloading associated with the rapid recession of the Guyot glacier is not understood.

Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth↗

USGS2012

Absence of strain accumulation in the Shumagin seismic gap, Alaska, 1980-1987

Measurements of the deformation of a trilateration network in the Shumagin seismic gap in the interval 1980–1987 failed to detect any significant strain accumulation (observed extension rate in the direction of plate convergence 0.00±0.03 μstrain/yr). Dislocation models of the subduction process and measurements at a comparable network at a known seismic subduction zone (Nankai Trough, Japan) suggest that a rate of the order of −0.2 μstrain/yr should have been observed if the main thrust zone beneath the Shumagin Islands were locked. The simplest explanation of the observed absence of strain accumulation in the Shumagin seismic gap is that the main thrust zone beneath the Shumagin Islands is not presently locked. Other possible explanations depend upon very particular circumstances.

Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth↗

USGS2012

Crustal strain near the Big Bend of the San Andreas Fault: Analysis of the Los Padres-Tehachapi Trilateration Networks, California

In the region of the Los Padres-Tehachapi geodetic network, the San Andreas fault (SAF) changes its orientation by over 30° from N40°W, close to that predicted by plate motion for a transform boundary, to N73°W. The strain orientation near the SAF is consistent with right-lateral shear along the fault, with maximum shear rate of 0.38±0.01 μrad/yr at N63°W. In contrast, away from the SAF the strain orientations on both sides of the fault are consistent with the plate motion direction, with maximum shear rate of 0.19±0.01 μrad/yr at N44°W. The strain rate does not drop off rapidly away from the fault, and thus the area is fit by either a broad shear zone below the SAF or a single fault with a relatively deep locking depth. The fit to the line length data is poor for locking depth d less than 25 km. For d of 25 km a buried slip rate of 30 ± 6 mm/yr is estimated. We also estimated buried slip for models that included the Garlock and Big Pine faults, in addition to the SAF. Slip rates on other faults are poorly constrained by the Los Padres-Tehachapi network. The best fitting Garlock fault model had computed left-lateral slip rate of 11±2 mm/yr below 10 km. Buried left-lateral slip of 15±6 mm/yr on the Big Pine fault, within the Western Transverse Ranges, provides significant reduction in line length residuals; however, deformation there may be more complicated than a single vertical fault. A subhorizontal detachment on the southern side of the SAF cannot be well constrained by these data. We investigated the location of the SAF and found that a vertical fault below the surface trace fits the data much better than either a dipping fault or a fault zone located south of the surface trace.

Journal of Geophysical Research Solid Earth↗

USGS2002

The 12 September 1999 Upper East Rift Zone dike intrusion at Kilauea Volcano, Hawaii

Deformation associated with an earthquake swarm on 12 September 1999 in the Upper East Rift Zone of Kilauea Volcano was recorded by continuous GPS receivers and by borehole tiltmeters. Analyses of campaign GPS, leveling data, and interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) data from the ERS-2 satellite also reveal significant deformation from the swarm. We interpret the swarm as resulting from a dike intrusion and model the deformation field using a constant pressure dike source. Nonlinear inversion was used to find the model that best fits the data. The optimal dike is located beneath and slightly to the west of Mauna Ulu, dips steeply toward the south, and strikes nearly east-west. It is approximately 3 by 2 km across and was driven by a pressure of ∼15 MPa. The total volume of the dike was 3.3 × 10 6 m 3 . Tilt data indicate a west to east propagation direction. Lack of premonitory inflation of Kilauea's summit suggests a passive intrusion; that is, the immediate cause of the intrusion was probably tensile failure in the shallow crust of the Upper East Rift Zone brought about by persistent deep rifting and by continued seaward sliding of Kilauea's south flank.

Hawaii↗

USGS2001

Volcano monitoring using the Global Positioning System: Filtering strategies

Permanent Global Positioning System (GPS) networks are routinely used for producing improved orbits and monitoring secular tectonic deformation. For these applications, data are transferred to an analysis center each day and routinely processed in 24-hour segments. To use GPS for monitoring volcanic events, which may last only a few hours, real-time or near real-time data processing and subdaily position estimates are valuable. Strategies have been researched for obtaining station coordinates every 15 min using a Kalman filter; these strategies have been tested on data collected by a GPS network on Kilauea Volcano. Data from this network are tracked continuously, recorded every 30 s, and telemetered hourly to the Hawaiian Volcano Observatory. A white noise model is heavily impacted by data outages and poor satellite geometry, but a properly constrained random walk model fits the data well. Using a borehole tiltmeter at Kilauea's summit as ground-truth, solutions using different random walk constraints were compared. This study indicates that signals on the order of 5 mm/h are resolvable using a random walk standard deviation of 0.45 cm/√h. Values lower than this suppress small signals, and values greater than this have significantly higher noise at periods of 1–6 hours.

Hawai'i↗

USGS2000

Strain accumulation along the Cascadia subduction zone

We combine triangulation, trilateration, and GPS observations to determine horizontal strain rates along the Cascadia subduction zone from Cape Mendocino to the Strait of Juan de Fuca. Shear-strain rates are significantly greater than zero (95% confidence) in all forearc regions (26-167 nanoradians/yr), and are not significant in the arc and backarc regions. The deformation is primarily uniaxial contraction nearly parallel to Juan de Fuca-North America plate convergence (N55??-80??E). The strain rates are consistent with an elastic dislocation model for interseismic slip with a shallow 100-km wide locked zone and a deeper 75-km transition zone along the entire megathrust, except along the central Oregon coast where relatively lower strain rates are consistent with 30-40 km wide locked and transition zones.

Geophysical Research Letters↗

USGS2000

January 30, 1997 eruptive event on Kilauea Volcano, Hawaii, as monitored by continuous GPS

A continuous Global Positioning System (GPS) network on Kilauea Volcano captured the most recent fissure eruption in Kilauea's East Rift Zone (ERZ) in unprecedented spatial and temporal detail. The short eruption drained the lava pond at Pu'u O' o, leading to a two month long pause in its on-going eruption. Models of the GPS data indicate that the intrusion's bottom edge extended to only 2.4 km. Continuous GPS data reveal rift opening 8 hours prior to the eruption. Absence of precursory summit inflation rules out magma storage overpressurization as the eruption's cause. We infer that stresses in the shallow rift created by the continued deep rift dilation and slip on the south flank decollement caused the rift intrusion.

Geophysical Research Letters↗

USGS1998

Viscoelastic coupling model of the San Andreas fault along the Big Bend, southern California

The big bend segment of the San Andreas fault is the 300-km-long segment in southern California that strikes about N65°W, roughly 25° counterclockwise from the local tangent to the small circle about the Pacific-North America pole of rotation. The broad distribution of deformation of trilateration networks along this segment implies a locking depth of at least 25 km as interpreted by the conventional model of strain accumulation (continuous slip on the fault below the locking depth at the rate of relative plate motion), whereas the observed seismicity and laboratory data on fault strength suggest that the locking depth should be no greater than 10 to 15 km. The discrepancy is explained by the viscoelastic coupling model which accounts for the viscoelastic response of the lower crust. Thus the broad distribution of deformation observed across the big bend segment can be largely associated with the San Andreas fault itself, not subsidiary faults distributed throughout the region. The Working Group on California Earthquake Probabilities [1995] in using geodetic data to estimate the seismic risk in southern California has assumed that strain accumulated off the San Andreas fault is released by earthquakes located off the San Andreas fault. Thus they count the San Andreas contribution to total seismic moment accumulation more than once, leading to an overestimate of the seismicity for magnitude 6 and greater earthquakes in their Type C zones.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS1997

Resolution of fault slip along the 470-km-long rupture of the great 1906 San Francisco earthquake and its implications

Data from all available triangulation networks affected by the 1906 earthquake have been combined to assess the trade-off between slip resolution and its uncertainty and to construct a conservative image of coseismic slip along the rupture. Because of varying network aperture and station density, slip resolution is very uneven. Although slip is determined within uncertainties of ??1.0 m along 60% of the fault, constraints are poor on the remaining, mostly offshore portions of the rupture. Slip decreases from maxima of 8.6 and 7.5 m at Shelter Cove and Tomales Bay to 4.5 m near Mount Tamalpais and 2.7 m at Loma Prieta. The geodetically derived slip distribution is in poor agreement with estimates based on analysis of S wave seismograms, probably because these waves register only 20-30% of the total seismic moment obtained from longer-period surface waves. Consideration of a range of fault geometries for 1906 slip near Loma Prieta indicates right-lateral motions lie between 2.3 and 3.1 m. These values are considerably greater than the 1.5 m of measured surface slip on which several assessments of high earthquake hazard for this fault segment were based. This factor, along with the absence of 1989 slippage where 1906 surface slip was used to make the forecasts, casts doubt on some claims of success in predicting the 1989 M = 6.9 Loma Prieta earthquake.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS1996

Observed discrepancy between geodolite and GPS distance measurements

Comparison of contemporaneous measurements of 84 distances in the range of 10 to 50 km by both Global Positioning System (GPS) and Geodolite (an electro-optical distance-measuring instrument) indicates that the Geodolite measurements are systematically longer by 0.283 ± 0.100 parts per million of the measured distance. Quoted uncertainty is 1 standard deviation. This amounts to 11.3 ± 4.0 mm at 40 km, which is near the maximum Geodolite range. The systematic difference is within the random uncertainty of an individual GPS-Geodolite comparison and was detected only from an analysis of a large number (84) of such comparisons. The source of the systematic difference has not been identified.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗

USGS1996

The 1992 M=7 Cape Mendocino, California, earthquake: Coseismic deformation at the south end of the Cascadia megathrust

We invert geodetic measurements of coseismic surface displacements to determine a dislocation model for the April 25, 1992, M = 7 Cape Mendocino, California, earthquake. The orientation of the model slip vector, which nearly parallels North America-Juan de Fuca relative plate convergence, and the location and orientation of the model fault relative to the offshore Cascadia megathrust, suggest that the 1992 Cape Mendocino earthquake is the first well-recorded event to relieve strain associated with the Cascadia subduction zone. We use data from three geodetic techniques: (1) the horizontal and vertical displacements of 13 monuments surveyed with the Global Positioning System, corrected for observed horizontal interseismic strain accumulation, (2) 88 section-elevation differences between leveling monuments, and (3) the uplift of 12 coastal sites observed from the die-off of intertidal marine organisms. Maximum observed displacements are 0.4 m of horizontal movement and 1.5 m of uplift along the coast. We use Monte Carlo techniques to estimate an optimal uniform slip rectangular fault geometry and its uncertainties. The optimal model using all the data resolves 4.9 m of slip on a 14 by 15 km fault that dips 28° SE. The fault extends from 1.5 to 8.7 km in depth and the main-shock hypocenter is close to the downdip projection of the fault. The shallowly dipping fault plane is consistent with the observed aftershock locations, and the estimated geodetic moment is 3.1 × 10 19 N m, 70% of the seismic moment. Other models that exclude leveling data collected in 1935 and 1942 are more consistent with seismological estimates of the fault geometry. If the earthquake is characteristic for this segment, the estimated horizontal slip vector compared with plate convergence rates suggests a recurrence interval of 140 years, with a 95% confidence range of 100–670 years. The coseismic uplift occurred in a region that also has high Quaternary uplift rates determined from marine terrace studies. If repeated ruptures of this southernmost segment of the Cascadia megathrust are responsible for the Quaternary uplift, a comparison of the coseismic uplift with coastal uplift rates suggests a recurrence interval of 200–400 years. Thus comparing horizontal and vertical coseismic to long-term deformation suggests a recurrence interval of about 100–300 years for M = 7 events at the south end of the Cascadia megathrust.

Journal of Geophysical Research B: Solid Earth↗