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M. G. Hopper

Publications and source records attributed to M. G. Hopper.

13 recordsLinked to original sources

Magnitudes and locations of the 1811-1812 New Madrid, Missouri, and the 1886 Charleston, South Carolina, earthquakes

We estimate locations and moment magnitudes M and their uncertainties for the three largest events in the 1811–1812 sequence near New Madrid, Missouri, and for the 1 September 1886 event near Charleston, South Carolina. The intensity magnitude M I , our preferred estimate of M , is 7.6 for the 16 December 1811 event that occurred in the New Madrid seismic zone (NMSZ) on the Bootheel lineament or on the Blytheville seismic zone. M I is 7.5 for the 23 January 1812 event for a location on the New Madrid north zone of the NMSZ and 7.8 for the 7 February 1812 event that occurred on the Reelfoot blind thrust of the NMSZ. Our preferred locations for these events are located on those NMSZ segments preferred by Johnston and Schweig ( 1996 ). Our estimates of M are 0.1–0.4 M units less than those of Johnston ( 1996b ) and 0.3–0.5 M units greater than those of Hough et al. ( 2000 ). M I is 6.9 for the 1 September 1886 event for a location at the Summerville–Middleton Place cluster of recent small earthquakes located about 30 km northwest of Charleston.

Missouri, South Carolina↗

Catalog of significant historical earthquakes in the Central United States

We use Modified Mercalli intensity assignments to estimate source locations and moment magnitude M for eighteen 19th-century and twenty early- 20th-century earthquakes in the central United States (CUS) for which estimates of M are otherwise not available. We use these estimates, and locations and M estimated elsewhere, to compile a catelog of significant historical earthquakes in the CUS. The 1811-1812 New Madrid earthquakes apparently dominated CUS seismicity in the first two decades of the 19th century. M5-6 earthquakes occurred in the New Madrid Seismic Zone in 1843 and 1878, but none have occurred since 1878. There has been persistent seismic activity in the Illinois Basin in southern Illinois and Indiana, with M > 5.0 earthquakes in 1895, 1909, 1917, 1968, and 1987. Four other M > 5.0 CUS historical earthquakes have occurred: in Kansas in 1867, in Nebraska in 1877, in Oklahoma in 1882, and in Kentucky in 1980.

Open-File Report↗

Estimating locations and magnitudes of earthquakes in eastern North America from Modified Mercalli intensities

We use 28 calibration events (3.7 < or = M < or = 7.3) from Texas to the Grand Banks, Newfoundland, to develop a Modified Mercalli intensity (MMI) model and associated site corrections for estimating source parameters of historical earthquakes in eastern North America. The model, MMI = 1.41 + 1.68 XM - 0.00345X Delta - 2.08log (Delta), where Delta is the distance in kilometers from the epicenter and M is moment magnitude, provides unbiased estimates of M and its uncertainty, and, if site corrections are used, of source location. The model can be used for the analysis of historical earthquakes with only a few MMI assignments. We use this model, MMI site corrections, and Bakun and Wentworth's (1997 technique to estimate M and the epicenter for three important historical earthquakes. The intensity magnitude M1 is 6.1 for the 18 November 1755 earthquake near Cape Ann, Massachusetts; 6.0 for the 5 January 1843 earthquake near Marked Tree, Arkansas; and 6.0 for the 31 October 1895 earthquake. The 1895 event probably occurred in southern Illinois, about 100 km north of the site of significant ground failure effects near Charleston, Missouri.

Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America↗

Empirical modified Mercalli intensity site corrections for towns in eastern North America

Modified Mercalli intensity (MMI) assignments for earthquakes in eastern North America (ENA) were used by Bakun et al. (2003) and Bakun and Hopper (in press) to develop models for estimating the location and moment magnitude M of earthquakes in ENA from MMI observations. The MMI empirical site corrections developed and used by Bakun et al. (2003) and Bakun and Hopper (in press) are listed in this Open-file Report.

Open-File Report↗

The December 1872 Washington state earthquake

The largest historical earthquake in eastern Washington occurred on 15 December 1872. We used Modified Mercalli intensity (MMI) assignments for 12 twentieth-century earthquakes to determine attenuation relations for different regions in the Pacific Northwest. MMI attenuation for propagation paths east and west of the Cascade Mountains differs significantly only for epicentral distances greater than about 225 km. We used these attenuation relations and the MMI assignments for the 15 December 1872 earthquake to conclude that its epicentral region was east of the Cascade Mountains near Lake Chelan, Washington, and most probably near the south end of Lake Chelan. The intensity magnitude, M I , is 6.8 and moment magnitude, M , is 6.5-7.0 at the 95% confidence level .

Washington↗

Modified Mercalli Intensities (MMI) for some earthquakes in eastern North America (ENA) and empirical MMI site corrections for towns in ENA

Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) assignments for earthquakes in eastern North America (ENA) were used by Bakun et al. (submitted) to develop a model for eastern North America for estimating the location and moment magnitude M of earthquakes from MMI observations. MMI assignments for most of the earthquakes considered by Bakun et al. (submitted) are published. MMI assignments for 6 other earthquakes used by Bakun et al. (submitted) are listed in this report: November 18, 1755 near Cape Ann, Massachusetts; January 5, 1843 near Marked Tree, Arkansas; October 31, 1895 in southern Illinois; November 18, 1929 on the Grand Banks, Newfoundland; September 26, 1990 in southeast Missouri; and May 4, 1991 near Risco, Missouri. MMI empirical site corrections developed and used by Bakun et al. (submitted) are also listed in this report.

Arkansas;Illinois;Massachusetts;Missouri;Newfoundl↗

Modified Mercalli intensities (MMI) for large earthquakes near New Madrid, Missouri, in 1811-1812 and near Charleston, South Carolina, in 1886

Large historical earthquakes occurred in the eastern United States on December 16, 1811 near New Madrid, MO, on January 23, 1812 near New Madrid, MO, on February 7, 1812 near New Madrid, MO, and on September 1, 1886 near Charleston, SC. Modified Mercalli Intensity (MMI) assignments for these earthquakes were used by Bakun et al. (submitted) to estimate the location and moment magnitude M of these earthquakes from MMI observations. The MMI assignments used by Bakun et al. (submitted) are listed in this report.

Missouri, South Carolina↗

USGS National Seismic Hazard Maps

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) recently completed new probabilistic seismic hazard maps for the United States, including Alaska and Hawaii. These hazard maps form the basis of the probabilistic component of the design maps used in the 1997 edition of the NEHRP Recommended Provisions for Seismic Regulations for New Buildings and Other Structures , prepared by the Building Seismic Safety Council and published by FEMA. The hazard maps depict peak horizontal ground acceleration and spectral response at 0.2, 0.3, and 1.0 sec periods, with 10%, 5%, and 2% probabilities of exceedance in 50 years, corresponding to return times of about 500, 1000, and 2500 years, respectively. In this paper we outline the methodology used to construct the hazard maps. There are three basic components to the maps. First, we use spatially smoothed historic seismicity as one portion of the hazard calculation. In this model, we apply the general observation that moderate and large earthquakes tend to occur near areas of previous small or moderate events, with some notable exceptions. Second, we consider large background source zones based on broad geologic criteria to quantify hazard in areas with little or no historic seismicity, but with the potential for generating large events. Third, we include the hazard from specific fault sources. We use about 450 faults in the western United States (WUS) and derive recurrence times from either geologic slip rates or the dating of pre-historic earthquakes from trenching of faults or other paleoseismic methods. Recurrence estimates for large earthquakes in New Madrid and Charleston, South Carolina, were taken from recent paleoliquefaction studies. We used logic trees to incorporate different seismicity models, fault recurrence models, Cascadia great earthquake scenarios, and ground-motion attenuation relations. We present disaggregation plots showing the contribution to hazard at four cities from potential earthquakes with various magnitudes and distances.

Earthquake Spectra↗

Types of damage that could result from a great earthquake in the New Madrid, Missouri, seismic zone

In the winter of 1811&ndash;1812 a series of three great earthquakes occurred in the New Madrid seismic zone. In addition to the three principal shocks, at least 15 other earthquakes, I o &ge; VIII, occurred within a year of the first large earthquake on December 16, 1811. The three main shocks were felt over the entire eastern United States. They were strong enough to cause minor damage as far away as Indiana and Ohio on the north, the Carolinas on the east, and southern Mississippi on the south. They were strong enough to cause severe or structural damage in parts of Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, Kentucky, Tennessee, Mississippi, and Arkansas. The section of this poster titled "Seismic history of the New Madrid region" describes what happened in the epicentral region. Fortunately, few people lived in the severely shaken area in 1811; that is not the case today. What would happen if a series of earthquakes as large and numerous as the "New Madrid" earthquakes were to occur in the New Madrid seismic zone today? Photographs 1-10 show typical damage to structures that occurred during various earthquakes in the United States. Structural damage to buildings in the Modified Mercalli intensity scale, a scale used for assigning numbers to earthquake effects, begins at intensity VIII. Minor or architectural damage (cracked plaster, windows, and chimneys) occurs at intensities VI and VII, and effects on people and small objects predominate at intensities below VI (earthquake felt, direction and duration noted, dishes broken). Photographs 1-10 illustrate damage caused by intensity VIII and above. None of the damage shown in these photographs occurred in earthquakes larger than the 1811&ndash;1812 New Madrid shocks, and most of the examples are from considerably smaller shocks. Photographs 1-4 and 7 show damage to masonry buildings, mostly old and unreinforced, none designed to be earthquake resistant. How many such buildings are in use in your community? Photographs 5 and 6 show damage to modern structures close to the epicenter of a magnitude 6.5 earthquake, a small shock compared to the magnitudes (8.4&ndash;8.7) of the New Madrid earthquakes. Photographs 8&ndash;10 are typical of damage that can occur at large distances from great earthquakes. Tall buildings are particularly susceptible to ground motions with relatively long periods (greater than 1 second), while short, rigid buildings are generally more likely to be damaged by ground motions with periods of less than 1 second. Shorter period ground motions attenuate more rapidly with distance from the epicenter than do the longer period motions. The 1811-1812 earthquakes produced extensive ground effects. Earthquakes can cause many different kinds of ground effects, ranging from minor fissures, slumps, and rockslides to major landslides and disturbances of the ground surface. Photographs 1117 show typical earthquake ground effects and the kinds of damage they can cause to manmade structures. Is another earthquake as large as the 1811-1812 shocks really likely to occur in New Madrid seismic zone? Great earthquakes such as the 1811-1812 series are estimated to occur in the zone on the average every 500 years. However, earthquakes strong enough to cause structural damage (VIII in the Modified Mercalli intensity scale) are estimated to occur in the seismic zone on the average every 50 years. The last such shock occurred in 1843. How do you prepare for a possible earthquake and what do you do if one occurs? The section on "Earthquake safety tips" explains what to do before, during, and after an earthquake. Want to know more? See "Sources of additional information." Other reports of interest are listed in "References cited."

New Madrid seismic zone↗