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Geology topics

M. D. Dettinger

Publications and source records attributed to M. D. Dettinger.

At least 55 records · Page 3Linked to original sources
USGS1999

Global to local scale simulations of streamflow in the Merced, American, and Carson Rivers, Sierra Nevada, California

Atmospheric moisture transport and moisture budgets during winter (December-April) simulated by the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) regional spectral model (RSM) are examined and used to simulate streamflow variations in the Sierra Nevada. The RSM was nested in 2"-latitude x 2"-longitude NCEPreanalyzed atmospheric-data fields (as a surrogate for a perfect forecast system operating at the global scale). Precipitation, temperature, and solar insolation simulated by the RSM on a 50-km grid were inputted directly to precipitation-runoff models of the Merced, American, and Carson Rivers in an evaluation of the potential for end-to-end forecasting of streamflow and snowmelt runoff from the Sierra Nevada, near 39"N 120"W. Over the western United States, the RSM captures both patterns and magnitudes of precipitation (e.g., Fig. I illustrates observed and simulated precipitation for winter 1982-83). The RSM has dry biases in the Southeast and over the Gulf of Mexico, but it captures interannual and intraseasonal variations well. During most El Nifios, it simulates a precipitation dipole over the western states with wetter-than-normal conditions in California and drier-than-normal in the Pacific Northwest. The Northeast is relatively dry and the southern states are wet, as in observations. The RSM did equally well during La Niiia winters.

Conference Paper↗
USGS1999

United States streamflow probabilities based on forecasted La Nina, winter-spring 2000

Although for the last 5 months the TahitiDarwin Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has hovered close to normal, the “equatorial” SOI has remained in the La Niña category and predictions are calling for La Niña conditions this winter. In view of these predictions of continuing La Niña and as a direct extension of previous studies of the relations between El NiñoSouthern Oscil-lation (ENSO) conditions and streamflow in the United States (e.g., Redmond and Koch, 1991; Cayan and Webb, 1992; Redmond and Cayan, 1994; Dettinger et al., 1998; Garen, 1998; Cayan et al., 1999; Dettinger et al., in press), the probabilities that United States streamflows from December 1999 through July 2000 will be in upper and lower thirds (terciles) of the historical records are estimated here. The processes that link ENSO to North American streamflow are discussed in detail in these diagnostics studies. Our justification for generating this forecast is threefold: (1) Cayan et al. (1999) recently have shown that ENSO influences on streamflow variations and extremes are proportionately larger than the corresponding precipitation teleconnections. (2) Redmond and Cayan (1994) and Dettinger et al. (in press) also have shown that the low-frequency evolution of ENSO conditions support long-lead correlations between ENSO and streamflow in many rivers of the conterminous United States. (3) In many rivers, significant (weeks-to-months) delays between precipitation and the release to streams of snowmelt or ground-water discharge can support even longer term forecasts of streamflow than is possible for precipitation. The relatively slow, orderly evolution of El Niño-Southern Oscillation episodes, the accentuated dependence of streamflow upon ENSO, and the long lags between precipitation and flow encourage us to provide the following analysis as a simple prediction of this year’s river flows.

Experimental Long-Lead Forecast Bulletin↗
USGS1998

Seasonal and interannual variations of atmospheric CO2 and climate

Interannual variations of atmospheric CO 2 concentrations at Mauna Loa are almost masked by the seasonal cycle and a strong trend; at the South Pole, the seasonal cycle is small and is almost lost in the trend and interannual variations. Singular-spectrum analysis (SSA) is used here to isolate and reconstruct interannual signals at both sites and to visualize recent decadal changes in the amplitude and phase of the seasonal cycle. Analysis of the Mauna Loa CO 2 series illustrates a hastening of the CO 2 seasonal cycle, a close temporal relation between Northern Hemisphere (NH) mean temperature trends and the amplitude of the seasonal CO 2 cycle, and tentative ties between the latter and seasonality changes in temperature over the NH continents. Variations of the seasonal CO 2 cycle at the South Pole differ from those at Mauna Loa: it is phase changes of the seasonal cycle at the South Pole, rather than amplitude changes, that parallel hemispheric and global temperature trends. The seasonal CO 2 cycles exhibit earlier occurrences of the seasons by 7 days at Mauna Loa and 18 days at the South Pole. Interannual CO 2 variations are shared at the two locations, appear to respond to tropical processes, and can be decomposed mostly into two periodicities, around (3 years) -1 and (4 years) -1 , respectively. Joint SSA analyses of CO 2 concentrations and tropical climate indices isolate a shared mode with a quasi-triennial (QT) period in which the CO 2 and sea-surface temperature (SST) participation are in phase opposition. The other shared mode has a quasi-quadrennial (QQ) period and CO 2 variations are in phase with the corresponding tropical SST variations throughout the tropics. Together these interannual modes exhibit a mean lag between tropical SSTs and CO 2 variations of about 6–8 months, with SST leading. Analysis of the QT and QQ signals in global gridded SSTs, joint SSA of CO 2 and δ13C isotopic ratios, and SSA of CO 2 and NH-land temperatures indicate that the QT variations in CO 2 mostly reflect upwelling variations in the eastern tropical Pacific. QQ variations are dominated by the CO 2 signature of terrestrial-ecosystem response to global QQ climate variations. Climate variations associated with these two interannual components of tropical variability have very different effects on global climate and, especially, on terrestrial ecosystems and the carbon cycle.

Tellus, Series B: Chemical and Physical Meteorolog↗
USGS1998

North-South precipitation patterns in western North America on interannual-to-decadal timescales

The overall amount of precipitation deposited along the West Coast and western cordillera of North America from 25??to 55??N varies from year to year, and superimposed on this domain-average variability are varying north-south contrasts on timescales from at least interannual to interdecadal. In order to better understand the north-south precipitation contrasts, their interannual and decadal variations are studied in terms of how much they affect overall precipitation amounts and how they are related to large-scale climatic patterns. Spatial empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) and spatial moments (domain average, central latitude, and latitudinal spread) of zonally averaged precipitation anomalies along the westernmost parts of North America are analyzed, and each is correlated with global sea level pressure (SLP) and sea surface temperature series, on interannual (defined here as 3-7 yr) and decadal (>7 yr) timescales. The interannual band considered here corresponds to timescales that are particularly strong in tropical climate variations and thus is expected to contain much precipitation variability that is related to El Nino-Southern Oscillation; the decadal scale is defined so as to capture the whole range of long-term climatic variations affecting western North America. Zonal EOFs of the interannual and decadal filtered versions of the zonal-precipitation series are remarkably similar. At both timescales, two leading EOFs describe 1) a north-south seesaw of precipitation pivoting near 40??N and 2) variations in precipitation near 40??N, respectively. The amount of overall precipitation variability is only about 10% of the mean and is largely determined by precipitation variations around 40??-45??N and most consistently influenced by nearby circulation patterns; in this sense, domain-average precipitation is closely related to the second EOF. The central latitude and latitudinal spread of precipitation distributions are strongly influenced by precipitation variations in the southern parts of western North America and are closely related to the first EOF. Central latitude of precipitation moves south (north) with tropical warming (cooling) in association with midlatitude western Pacific SLP variations, on both interannual and decadal timescales. Regional patterns and zonal averages of precipitation-sensitive tree-ring series are used to corroborate these patterns and to extend them into the past and appear to share much long- and short-term information with the instrumentally based zonal precipitation EOFs and moments.The overall amount of precipitation deposited along the West Coast and western cordillera of North America from 25?? to 55 ??N varies from year to year, and superimposed on this domain-average variability are varying north-south contrasts on timescales from at least interannual to interdecadal. In order to better understand the north-south precipitation contrasts, their interannual and decadal variations are studied in terms of how much they affect overall precipitation amounts and how they are related to large-scale climatic patterns. Spatial empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) and spatial moments (domain average, central latitude, and latitudinal spread) of zonally averaged precipitation anomalies along the westernmost parts of North America are analyzed, and each is correlated with global sea level pressure (SLP) and sea surface temperature series, on interannual (defined here as 3-7 yr) and decadal (>7 yr) timescales. The interannual band considered here corresponds to timescales that are particularly strong in tropical climate variations and thus is expected to contain much precipitation variability that is related to El Nino-Southern Oscillation; the decadal scale is defined so as to capture the whole range of long-term climatic variations affecting western North America. Zonal EOFs of the interannual and decadal filtered versions of the zonal-precipitation series are remarkably similar. At both tim

Journal of Climate↗
USGS1998

Decadal variability of precipitation over Western North America

Decadal (>7- yr period) variations of precipitation over western North America account for 20%-50% of the variance of annual precipitation. Spatially, the decadal variability is broken into several regional [O(1000 km)] components. These decadal variations are contributed by fluctuations in precipitation from seasons of the year that vary from region to region and that are not necessarily concentrated in the wettest season(s) alone. The precipitation variations are linked to various decadal atmospheric circulation and SST anomaly patterns where scales range from regional to global scales and that emphasize tropical or extratropical connections, depending upon which precipitation region is considered. Further, wet or dry decades are associated with changes in frequency of at least a few short-period circulation 'modes' such as the Pacific-North American pattern. Precipitation fluctuations over the southwestern United States and the Saskatchewan region of western Canada are associated with extensive shifts of sea level pressure and SST anomalies, suggesting that they are components of low-frequency precipitation variability from global-scale climate proceses. Consistent with the global scale of its pressure and SST connection, the Southwest decadal precipitation is aligned with opposing precipitation fluctuations in northern Africa.Decadal (>7-yr period) variations of precipitation over western North America account for 20%-50% of the variance of annual precipitation. Spatially, the decadal variability is broken into several regional [O(1000 km)] components. These decadal variations are contributed by fluctuations in precipitation from seasons of the year that vary from region to region and that are not necessarily concentrated in the wettest season(s) alone. The precipitation variations are linked to various decadal atmospheric circulation and SST anomaly patterns where scales range from regional to global scales and that emphasize tropical or extratropical connections, depending upon which precipitation region is considered. Further, wet or dry decades are associated with changes in frequency of at least a few short-period circulation `modes' such as the Pacific-North American pattern. Precipitation fluctuations over the southwestern United States and the Saskatchewan region of western Canada are associated with extensive shifts of sea level pressure and SST anomalies, suggesting that they are components of low-frequency precipitation variability from global-scale climate processes. Consistent with the global scale of its pressure and SST connection, the Southwest decadal precipitation is aligned with opposing precipitation fluctuations in northern Africa.

Journal of Climate↗
USGS1997

The spring runoff pulse from the Sierra Nevada

A spring runoff pulse is identified in the Merced River record from the Sierra Nevada, that makes the transition from low streamflow conditions in winter to the high streamflow conditions in the later spring-early summer period. The timing of the pulse is delayed with greater seasonal accumulation of snow pack in the Yosemite region. Also, the runoff pulse is triggered by a regional weather fluctuation that establishes a warm high pressure ridge over the California region during the spring (mid-March to Mid-May) period. Since this ridge often blankets the entire western United States, it is found that a simultaneous pulse occurs over a broad collection of high-elevation streams in the region.

California↗
USGS1996

Hydrogeology of structurally extended terrain in the eastern Great Basin of Nevada, Utah, and adjacent states, from geologic and geophysical models

The Great Basin of the western United States encompasses most of Nevada and western Utah (fig. 1). The climate of the region is semiarid to arid, with most precipitation falling as winter Show. The region is characterized by internal drainage (generally no hydrologic outlet to the ocean). Water resources in the region are limited and nearly all reliable surface-water sources have been allocated for use. The most commonly used aquifers arc sand-and-gravel basin-fill deposits in structural basins of the region. In many basins, pumpage from the basin-fill aquifers is as much as (or more than) the safe yield. Consequently, aquifers other than basin fill are being assessed in the eastern Great Basin to determine where and how much additional ground water is present and what might be the effects of development. This study was part of the Nevada Carbonate Aquifers Program, in cooperation with the State of Nevada, Las Vegas Valley Water District, City of North Las Vegas, and the Bureau of Reclamation. This atlas presents a conceptual model of the geologic and hydrologic features of structurally extended terrains in the eastern Great Basin. First, the model is described and major structural features are compared with regional groundwater flow patterns. Second, the validity of the conceptual hydrogeologic model is evaluated using geophysical data and geologic models derived from geophysical profiles.

Nevada;Utah↗
USGS1996

Geochemistry and isotope hydrology of representative aquifers in the Great Basin region of Nevada, Utah, and adjacent states

This report briefly describes the general quality and chemical character of the ground water, discusses in detail the geochemical and hydrologic processes that produce the chemical and isotopic compositions of water in the two principal types of aquifers (basin fill and carbonate rock), delineates flow systems in carbonate-rock aquifers of southern Nevada, and discusses ground-water ages and flow velocities within the carbonate-rock systems.

Professional Paper↗
USGS1996

Potential effects of climate change on streamflow, eastern and western slopes of the Sierra Nevada, California and Nevada

Precipitation-runoff models of the East Fork Carson and North Fork American Rivers were developed and calibrated for use in evaluating the sensitivity of streamflow in the north-central Sierra Nevada to climate change. The East Fork Carson River drains part of the rain-shadowed, eastern slope of the Sierra Nevada and is generally higher than the North Fork American River, which drains the wetter, western slope. First, a geographic information system was developed to describe the spatial variability of basin characteristics and to help estimate model parameters. The result was a partitioning of each basin into noncontiguous, but hydrologically uniform, land units. Hydrologic descriptions of these units were developed and the Precipitation- Runoff Modeling System (PRMS) was used to simulate water and energy balances for each unit in response to daily weather conditions. The models were calibrated and verified using historical streamflows over 22-year (Carson River) and 42-year (American River) periods. Simulated annual streamflow errors average plus 10 percent of the observed flow for the East Fork Carson River basin and plus 15 percent for the North Fork American River basin. Interannual variability is well simulated overall, but, at daily scales, wet periods are simulated more accurately than drier periods. The simulated water budgets for the two basins are significantly different in seasonality of streamflow, sublimation, evapotranspiration, and snowmelt. The simulations indicate that differences in snowpack and snowmelt timing can play pervasive roles in determining the sensitivity of water resources to climate change, in terms of both resource availability and amount. The calibrated models were driven by more than 25 hypothetical climate-change scenarios, each 100 years long. The scenarios were synthesized and spatially disaggregated by methods designed to preserve realistic daily, monthly, annual, and spatial statistics. Simulated streamflow timing was not very sensitive to changes in mean precipitation, but was sensitive to changes in mean temperatures. Changes in annual streamflow amounts were amplified reflections of imposed mean precipitation changes, with especially large responses to wetter climates. In contrast, streamflow amount was surprisingly insensitive to mean temperature changes as a result of temporal links between peak snowmelt and the beginning of warm-season evapotranspiration. Comparisons of simulations driven by temporally detailed climate-model changes in which mean temperature changes vary from month to month and simulations in which uniform climate changes were imposed throughout the year indicate that the snowpack accumulates the influences of short-term conditions so that season average climate changes were more important than shorter term changes.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗
USGS1995

Interannual and interdecadal variability in United States surface-air temperatures, 1910-87

Monthly mean surface-air temperatures at 870 sites in the contiguous United States were analyzed for interannual and interdecadal variability over the time interval 1910-87. The temperatures were analyzed spatially by empirical-orthogonal-function analysis and temporally by singularspectrum analysis (SSA). The dominant modes of spatio-temporal variability are trends and nonperiodic variations with time scales longer than 15 years, decadal-scale oscillations with periods of roughly 7 and 10 years, and interannual oscillations of 2.2 and 3.3 years. Together, these modes contribute about 18% of the slower-than-annual United States temperature variance. Two leading components roughly capture the mean hemispheric temperature trend and represent a long-term warming, largest in the southwest, accompanied by cooling of the domain's southeastern quadrant. The extremes of the 2.2-year interannual oscillation characterize temperature differences between the Northeastern and Southwestern States, whereas the 3.3-year cycle is present mostly in the Western States. The 7- to 10-year oscillations are much less regular and persistent than the interannual oscillations and characterize temperature differences between the western and interior sectors of the United States. These continental- or regional-scale temperature variations may be related to climatic variations with similar periodicities, either global or centered in other regions; such variations include quasi-biennial oscillations over the tropical Pacific or North Atlantic and quasi-triennial oscillations of North Pacific sea-surface temperatures.

Climatic Change↗
USGS1995

Distribution of carbonate-rock aquifers and the potential for their development, southern Nevada and adjacent parts of California, Arizona, and Utah

In 1985, the State of Nevada entered into a cooperative effort with the U.S. Department of the Interior to study and test the State's carbonate- rock aquifers. The studies were focused on southern Nevada and were intended to address the following concerns: Where is water potentially available in the aquifers?; How much water potentially can bewithdrawn from aquifers?; and What effects might result from development of the aquifers? The studies included basic-data collection, geologic mapping, geophysical and geochemical analyses, well drilling, and aquifer testing. The studies showed that the carbonate rocks are continuous and extensive enough to form regional aquifer systems only beneath thecentral third of the region. About 130,000 acre-feet per year of ground water flows through all the aquifers in this corridor (carbonate and noncarbonate), and about 77,000 acre-feet per year discharges directly from the carbonate-rock aquifers at regional springs in southern Nevada or at discharge areas in Death Valley, California. A larger volume of water -as much as 6 million acre-feet in the upper 100 feet alone-is stored in the rocks. Once depleted, however, that resource would be replenished by natural processes only very slowly. Ultimately, long-term development of the carbonate-rock aquifers would result in depletion of stored water, or in the capture of water that otherwise would discharge from the aquifers of southern Nevada and vicinity, or both. In manyplaces, development might extract water from both carbonate-rock and basin-fill aquifers. Possible effects of developing the carbonate-rock aquifers include declining water levels, decreasing springflow rates, drying up of some streams, playas, and meadows, and changing water quality. Specific impacts would depend upon the magnitude and length of development and site-specific conditions around the areas where the water is withdrawn. Confidence in predictions of the potential effects ofdevelopment of the carbonate-rock aquifers will remain limited until observations become available that document changes as the aquifers respond locally to long-term pumping stresses. However, if staged development were undertaken together with adequate monitoring, effects of continued or increased development could be estimated with progressively higher degrees of confidence.

Water-Resources Investigations Report↗
USGS1989

Reconnaissance estimates of natural recharge to desert basins in Nevada, U.S.A., by using chloride-balance calculations

A chloride-balance method for estimating average natural recharge to groundwater basins in the Basin and Range Province of the western United States may be a useful alternative or complement to current techniques. The chloride-balance method, as presented in this paper, equates chloride in recharge water and runoff to chloride deposited in mountainous recharge-source areas by precipitation and dry fallout. Given estimates of annual precipitation on these source areas and chloride concentrations of bulk precipitation and recharge water, the rate of recharge can be estimated providing that: (1) no other major sources of chloride exist; (2) direct runoff to discharge areas in the basin is small or can otherwise be taken in account in the balance; and (3) the recharge sources for the basin are correctly delineated. The estimates are sensitive to the estimated rate of input of chloride from the atmosphere; this is the greatest data need for future applications of the method. Preliminary applications of the method to sixteen basins in Nevada, including Las Vegas Valley, indicate that the method can be a useful tool for hydrologists and resource managers. Correlation coefficients between recharge efficiencies for the basins - estimated on the basis of recharge estimates that use the chloride-balance method and two other currently used techniques - range from 0.54 to 0.95, depending on assumptions about where the method may be applied.

Nevada↗