Lake temperature and morphometry shape the thermal composition of recreational fishing catch
Objective Managing freshwater fisheries in warming lakes is challenging because climate change impacts anglers, fish, and their interactions. Methods We integrated recent models of current and future lake temperatures with recreational fisheries catch data from 587 lakes in three north-central U.S. states (Michigan, Minnesota, and Wisconsin) to evaluate how the thermal composition of recreational fisheries catch varied as a function of temperature, ice coverage, and lake morphometry. Result We found that warmwater catch share (WCS), defined as the proportion of fish in recreational angling catch that belonged to the warmwater thermal guild (final temperature preferendum [FTP] > 25°C), increased with average annual lake surface temperature and decreased with survey ice coverage. However, we also found that WCS decreased with increased lake area and depth. Using mid-century (2040–2060) water temperature and ice projections while holding all other variables constant, we predicted that WCS will likely increase as the climate warms but that significant thermal heterogeneity will persist. Conclusion Lakes that are large (>100 ha) and deep (>10 m) and those with cooler (<3700 annual growing degree-days) predicted future temperatures will likely hold thermal refugia for coolwater (FTP = 19–25°C) and coldwater (FTP < 19°C) fish even as average lake temperatures rise, creating the potential for management actions to resist the shift from coolwater to warmwater fisheries. Managers of smaller and more rapidly warming lakes may want to consider strategies that accept or direct emerging warmwater fishing opportunities. We suggest that the most viable path to climate adaptation in landscapes of diverse lakes may be to resist warmwater shifts where possible and to accept or direct the rise of warmwater fishing opportunities where necessary.