Confronting debris-flow hazards after wildfire
No abstract available.
Eos, American Geophysical Union↗
Geology topics
Luke McGuire
Publications and source records attributed to Luke McGuire.
Fire effects on geomorphic processes
Fire-induced geomorphic changes, such as enhanced erosion and debris-flow activity, are expected to increase with climate change owing to increases in fire activity and rainfall intensification. In this Review, we summarize how landscape attributes, rainfall and burn severity influence post-fire geomorphic responses over a range of temporal and spatial scales. Sub-hourly rainfall intensity and burn severity control the magnitude of many post-fire geomorphic process rates through their influence on ground cover and rainfall-runoff partitioning. Post-fire debris flows (PFDFs) make a substantial contribution to the post-fire sediment cascade, transporting sediment from hillslopes to channels, adjacent floodplains and alluvial fans. By the late twenty-first century, PFDF activity is estimated to increase in 68% of areas in which PFDFs have occurred in the past and decrease in only 2% of locations. Once altered by fire, geomorphic state variables — such as infiltration capacity, canopy cover, ground cover and sediment availability — can recover to their pre-fire value or be shifted to a new value. Improved understanding of the factors that influence these post-fire trajectories could support targeted management and intervention strategies. Additionally, monitoring that extends beyond the first 1–3 years after fire and deeper integration of ecohydrological processes into geomorphic models are needed to improve forecasts of post-fire geomorphic responses.
Nature Reviews Earth and Environment↗
Toward probabilistic post-fire debris-flow hazard decision support
Post-wildfire debris flows (PFDF) threaten life and property in western North America. They are triggered by short-duration, high-intensity rainfall. Following a wildfire, rainfall thresholds are developed that, if exceeded, indicate high likelihood of a PFDF. Existing weather forecast products allow forecasters to identify favorable atmospheric conditions for rainfall intensities that may exceed established thresholds at lead times needed for decision-making (e.g., ≥24 h). However, at these lead times, considerable uncertainty exists regarding rainfall intensity and whether the high-intensity rainfall will intersect the burn area. The approach of messaging on potential hazards given favorable conditions is generally effective in avoiding unanticipated PFDF impacts, but may lead to “messaging fatigue” if favorable triggering conditions are forecast numerous times, yet no PFDF occurs (i.e., false alarm). Forecasters and emergency managers need additional tools that increase their confidence regarding occurrence of short-duration, high-intensity rainfall as well as tools that tie rainfall forecasts to potential PFDF outcomes. We present a concept for probabilistic tools that evaluate PFDF hazards by coupling a high-resolution (1-km), large (100-member) ensemble 24-h precipitation forecast at 5-min resolution with PFDF likelihood and volume models. The observed 15-min maximum rainfall intensities are captured within the ensemble spread, though in highest ∼10% of members. We visualize the model output in several ways to demonstrate most likely and most extreme outcomes and to characterize uncertainty. Our experiment highlights the benefits and limitations of this approach, and provides an initial step toward further developing situational awareness and impact-based decision-support tools for forecasting PFDF hazards.
California↗
Landslides after wildfire: Initiation, magnitude, and mobility
In the semiarid Southwestern USA, wildfires are commonly followed by runoff-generated debris flows because wildfires remove vegetation and ground cover, which reduces soil infiltration capacity and increases soil erodibility. At a study site in Southern California, we initially observed runoff-generated debris flows in the first year following fire. However, at the same site three years after the fire, the mass-wasting response to a long-duration rainstorm with high rainfall intensity peaks was shallow landsliding rather than runoff-generated debris flows. Moreover, the same storm caused landslides on unburned hillslopes as well as on slopes burned 5 years prior to the storm and areas burned by successive wildfires, 10 years and 3 years before the rainstorm. The landslide density was the highest on the hillslopes that had burned 3 years beforehand, and the hillslopes burned 5 years prior to the storm had low landslide densities, similar to unburned areas. We also found that reburning (i.e., two wildfires within the past 10 years) had little influence on landslide density. Our results indicate that landscape susceptibility to shallow landslides might return to that of unburned conditions after as little as 5 years of vegetation recovery. Moreover, most of the landslide activity was on steep, equatorial-facing slopes that receive higher solar radiation and had slower rates of vegetation regrowth, which further implicates vegetation as a controlling factor on post-fire landslide susceptibility. Finally, the total volume of sediment mobilized by the year 3 landslides was much smaller than the year 1 runoff-generated debris flows, and the landslides were orders of magnitude less mobile than the runoff-generated debris flows.
California↗
The influence of frost weathering on the debris flow sediment supply in an alpine basin
Rocky, alpine mountains are prone to mass wasting from debris flows. The Chalk Cliffs study area (central Colorado, USA) produces debris flows annually. These debris flows are triggered when overland flow driven by intense summer convective storms mobilizes large volumes of sediment within the channel network. Understanding the debris flow hazard in this, and similar alpine settings, requires determining the magnitude of sed- iment accumulation between debris flow seasons, and identifying the control on sediment production. To address these knowledge gaps, we measured changes in sediment produc- tion using a sediment retention fence to quantify how sedimentation was influenced by temperature at the plot scale. These measurements were extrapolated to a larger area, where we extended the sediment fence results to explore how rockfall sedimentation con- tributed to channel refilling between active debris flow periods. This work shows debris flow channel refilling is correlated with low temperatures and time in the frost-cracking window, implicating frost weathering mechanisms as a key driver of sedimentation. This sediment production process resulted in a large amount of sediment accumulation dur- ing a single winter season in our study reach (up to 0.4 m in some locations). Using these observations, we develop a channel refilling model that generally describes the mass bal- ance of debris flow watersheds in alpine areas.
Colorado↗
Looking through the window of disturbance at post-wildfire debris-flow hazards
The extreme heat from wildfire alters soil properties and incinerates vegetation, leading to changes in infiltration capacity, ground cover, soil erodibility, and rainfall interception. These changes promote increases in runoff and sediment transport that increase the likelihood of runoff-generated debris flows. Over a period of several years, referred to as the window of disturbance, the landscape recovers and wildfire-induced changes become less accentuated. Debris flows are most common in the year immediately following wildfire, but changes in the likelihood and magnitude of debris flows throughout the window of disturbance are not well constrained. Assessing debris-flow hazards throughout the post-wildfire recovery period is complicated, in part, by the myriad of wildfire-induced changes and their nonlinear relationships with sediment transport and runoff generation processes. In this study, we combine measurements of soil hydraulic properties with vegetation survey data and numerical modeling to understand how debris-flow threats are likely to change in steep, burned basins during the first two years of recovery. We focus on documenting recovery following the 2016 Fish Fire in the San Gabriel Mountains, CA, USA and demonstrate how a numerical model can be used to predict temporal changes in debris-flow properties and initiation thresholds within that region. Substantial increases in sorptivity, which represents the capillarity contribution to infiltration, and reductions in the percentage of bare soil occurred during the first 18 months following the Fish Fire. Numerical modeling suggests that these changes lead to a roughly 40% increase in the 15-minute rainfall intensity-duration threshold associated with debris-flow initiation as well as more than a three-fold decrease in debris-flow volume from post-fire year 1 to post-fire year 2. These results provide valuable constraints on changes in debris-flow thresholds within the San Gabriel Mountains as well as a general framework for exploring the impact of changing vegetation and soil hydraulic properties on debris-flow magnitude and susceptibility.
California↗
The evolution of a colluvial hollow to a fluvial channel with periodic steps following two transformational disturbances: A wildfire and a historic flood
The transition of a colluvial hollow to a fluvial channel with discrete steps was observed after two landscape-scale disturbances. The first disturbance, a high-severity wildfire, changed the catchment hydrology to favor overland flow, which incised a colluvial hollow, creating a channel in the same location. This incised channel became armored with cobbles and boulders following repeated post-wildfire overland flow events. Three years after the fire, a record rainstorm produced regional flooding and generated sufficient fluvial erosion and sorting to produce a fluvial channel with periodically spaced steps. An analysis of the step spacing shows that after the flood, newly formed steps retained a similar spacing to the topographic roughness spacing in the original colluvial hollow (prior to channelization). This suggests that despite a distinct change in channel form roughness and bedform morphology, the endogenous roughness periodicity was conserved. Variations in sediment erodibility helped to create the emergent steps as the largest particles ( >D84) remained immobile, becoming step features, and downstream soil was easily winnowed away.
Geomorphology↗
Estimating post-fire debris-flow hazards prior to wildfire using a statistical analysis of historical distributions of fire severity from remote sensing data
Following wildfire, mountainous areas of the western United States are susceptible to debris flow during intense rainfall. Convective storms that can generate debris flows in recently burned areas may occur during or immediately after the wildfire, leaving insufficient time for development and implementation of risk mitigation strategies. We present a method for estimating post-fire debris-flow hazards prior to wildfire using historical data to define the range of potential fire severities for a given location based on the statistical distribution of severity metrics obtained from remote sensing. Estimates of debris-flow likelihood, magnitude, and triggering rainfall threshold based upon the statistically simulated fire severity data provide hazard predictions consistent with those calculated from fire severity data collected after wildfire. Simulated fire severity data also produce hazard estimates that replicate observed debris-flow occurrence, rainfall conditions, and magnitude at a monitored site in the San Gabriel Mountains of southern California. Future applications of this method should rely upon a range of potential fire severity scenarios for improved pre-fire estimates of debris-flow hazard. The method presented here is also applicable to modeling other post-fire hazards, such as flooding and erosion risk, and for quantifying trends in observed fire severity in a changing climate.
California, Colorado, Washington↗
Quantifying post-wildfire hillslope erosion with lidar
Following a wildfire, flooding and debris- flow hazards are common and pose a threat to human life and infrastructure in steep burned terrain. Wildfire enhances both water runoff and soil erosion, which ultimately shape the debris flow potential. The erosional processes that route excess sediment from hillslopes to debris-flow channels in recently burned areas, however, are poorly constrained. In this study we examined erosional processes through repeat terrestrial lidar surveys in a steep mountainous watershed that experienced a high-severity burn in the 2016 San Gabriel complex fire. Three lidar surveys were conducted during a wet winter (2016-2017) on a hillslope plot. We used geomorphometric techniques to better contextualize erosion observations in areas with rills and between rills (interrill areas). A challenge was effectively differentiating DEM pixels that were in the constantly evolving rill network as well as those outside the rill network. By applying a series of DEM filtering processes we found that it was possible to efficiently identify the small-scale rill networks. Our results challenge previously held beliefs about sediment erosion on burned hillslopes, suggesting that prior estimates made without access to high resolution topography likely underestimated the role of interrill erosion.
Conference Paper↗
Debris flow initiation by runoff in a recently burned basin: Is grain-by-grain sediment bulking or en masse failure to blame?
Postwildfire debris flows are frequently triggered by runoff following high-intensity rainfall, but the physical mechanisms by which water-dominated flows transition to debris flows are poorly understood relative to debris flow initiation from shallow landslides. In this study, we combined a numerical model with high-resolution hydrologic and geomorphic data sets to test two different hypotheses for debris flow initiation during a rainfall event that produced numerous debris flows within a recently burned drainage basin. Based on simulations, large volumes of sediment eroded from the hillslopes were redeposited within the channel network throughout the storm, leading to the initiation of numerous debris flows as a result of the mass failure of sediment dams that built up within the channel. More generally, results provide a quantitative framework for assessing the potential of runoff-generated debris flows based on sediment supply and hydrologic conditions.
California↗
Constraining the relative importance of raindrop- and flow-driven sediment transport mechanisms in postwildfire environments and implications for recovery time scales
Mountain watersheds recently burned by wildfire often experience greater amounts of runoff and increased rates of sediment transport relative to similar unburned areas. Given the sedimentation and debris flow threats caused by increases in erosion, more work is needed to better understand the physical mechanisms responsible for the observed increase in sediment transport in burned environments and the time scale over which a heightened geomorphic response can be expected. In this study, we quantified the relative importance of different hillslope erosion mechanisms during two postwildfire rainstorms at a drainage basin in Southern California by combining terrestrial laser scanner-derived maps of topographic change, field measurements, and numerical modeling of overland flow and sediment transport. Numerous debris flows were initiated by runoff at our study area during a long-duration storm of relatively modest intensity. Despite the presence of a well-developed rill network, numerical model results suggest that the majority of eroded hillslope sediment during this long-duration rainstorm was transported by raindrop-induced sediment transport processes, highlighting the importance of raindrop-driven processes in supplying channels with potential debris flow material. We also used the numerical model to explore relationships between postwildfire storm characteristics, vegetation cover, soil infiltration capacity, and the total volume of eroded sediment from a synthetic hillslope for different end-member erosion regimes. This study adds to our understanding of sediment transport in steep, postwildfire landscapes and shows how data from field monitoring can be combined with numerical modeling of sediment transport to isolate the processes leading to increased erosion in burned areas.
California↗
The influence of vegetation cover on debris-flow density during an extreme rainfall in the northern Colorado Front Range
We explored regional influences on debris-flow initiation throughout the Colorado Front Range (Colorado, USA) by exploiting a unique data set of more than 1100 debris flows that initiated during a 5 day rainstorm in 2013. Using geospatial data, we examined the influence of rain, hillslope angle, hillslope aspect, and vegetation density on debris-flow initiation. In particular we used a greenness index to differentiate areas of high tree density from grass and bare soil. The data demonstrated an overwhelming propensity for debris-flow initiation on south-facing hillslopes. However, when the debris-flow density was analyzed with respect to total rainfall and greenness we found that most debris flows occurred in areas of high rainfall and low tree density, regardless of hillslope aspect. These results indicate that present-day tree density exerts a stronger influence on debris-flow initiation locations than aspect-driven variations in soil and bedrock properties that developed over longer time scales.
Geology↗
Elucidating the role of vegetation in the initiation of rainfall-induced shallow landslides: Insights from an extreme rainfall event in the Colorado Front Range
More than 1100 debris flows were mobilized from shallow landslides during a rainstorm from 9 to 13 September 2013 in the Colorado Front Range, with the vast majority initiating on sparsely vegetated, south facing terrain. To investigate the physical processes responsible for the observed aspect control, we made measurements of soil properties on a densely forested north facing hillslope and a grassland-dominated south facing hillslope in the Colorado Front Range and performed numerical modeling of transient changes in soil pore water pressure throughout the rainstorm. Using the numerical model, we quantitatively assessed interactions among vegetation, rainfall interception, subsurface hydrology, and slope stability. Results suggest that apparent cohesion supplied by roots was responsible for the observed connection between debris flow initiation and slope aspect. Results suggest that future climate-driven modifications to forest structure could substantially influence landslide hazards throughout the Front Range and similar water-limited environments where vegetation communities may be more susceptible to small variations in climate.
Geophysical Research Letters↗
Amplification of postwildfire peak flow by debris
In burned steeplands, the peak depth and discharge of postwildfire runoff can substantially increase from the addition of debris. Yet methods to estimate the increase over water flow are lacking. We quantified the potential amplification of peak stage and discharge using video observations of postwildfire runoff, compiled data on postwildfire peak flow ( Q p ), and a physically based model. Comparison of flood and debris flow data with similar distributions in drainage area ( A ) and rainfall intensity ( I ) showed that the median runoff coefficient ( C = Q p / AI ) of debris flows is 50 times greater than that of floods. The striking increase in Q p can be explained using a fully predictive model that describes the additional flow resistance caused by the emergence of coarse-grained surge fronts. The model provides estimates of the amplification of peak depth, discharge, and shear stress needed for assessing postwildfire hazards and constraining models of bedrock incision.
Geophysical Research Letters↗
Model simulations of flood and debris flow timing in steep catchments after wildfire
Debris flows are a typical hazard on steep slopes after wildfire, but unlike debris flows that mobilize from landslides, most post-wildfire debris flows are generated from water runoff. The majority of existing debris-flow modeling has focused on landslide-triggered debris flows. In this study we explore the potential for using process-based rainfall-runoff models to simulate the timing of water flow and runoff-generated debris flows in recently burned areas. Two different spatially distributed hydrologic models with differing levels of complexity were used: the full shallow water equations and the kinematic wave approximation. Model parameter values were calibrated in two different watersheds, spanning two orders of magnitude in drainage area. These watersheds were affected by the 2009 Station Fire in the San Gabriel Mountains, CA, USA. Input data for the numerical models were constrained by time series of soil moisture, flow stage, and rainfall collected at field sites, as well as high-resolution lidar-derived digital elevation models. The calibrated parameters were used to model a third watershed in the burn area, and the results show a good match with observed timing of flow peaks. The calibrated roughness parameter (Manning's $n$) was generally higher when using the kinematic wave approximation relative to the shallow water equations, and decreased with increasing spatial scale. The calibrated effective watershed hydraulic conductivity was low for both models, even for storms occurring several months after the fire, suggesting that wildfire-induced changes to soil-water infiltration were retained throughout that time. Overall the two model simulations were quite similar suggesting that a kinematic wave model, which is simpler and more computationally efficient, is a suitable approach for predicting flood and debris flow timing in steep, burned watersheds.
Water Resources Research↗
Controls on valley spacing in landscapes subject to rapid base-level fall
What controls the architecture of drainage networks is a fundamental question in geomorphology. Recent work has elucidated the mechanisms of drainage network development in steadily uplifting landscapes, but the controls on drainage-network morphology in transient landscapes are relatively unknown. In this paper we exploit natural experiments in drainage network development in incised Plio-Quaternary alluvial fan surfaces in order to understand and quantify drainage network development in highly transient landscapes, i.e. initially unincised low-relief surfaces that experience a pulse of rapid base-level drop followed by relative base-level stasis. Parallel drainage networks formed on incised alluvial-fan surfaces tend to have a drainage spacing that is approximately proportional to the magnitude of the base-level drop. Numerical experiments suggest that this observed relationship between the magnitude of base-level drop and mean drainage spacing is the result of feedbacks among the depth of valley incision, mass wasting and nonlinear increases in the rate of colluvial sediment transport with slope gradient on steep valley side slopes that lead to increasingly wide valleys in cases of larger base-level drop. We identify a threshold magnitude of base-level drop above which side slopes lengthen sufficiently to promote increases in contributing area and fluvial incision rates that lead to branching and encourage drainage networks to transition from systems of first-order valleys to systems of higher-order, branching valleys. The headward growth of these branching tributaries prevents the development of adjacent, ephemeral drainages and promotes a higher mean valley spacing relative to cases in which tributaries do not form. Model results offer additional insights into the response of initially unincised landscapes to rapid base-level drop and provide a preliminary basis for understanding how varying amounts of base-level change influence valley network morphology.
Earth Surface Processes and Landforms↗