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Geology topics

Luke J Zachmann

Publications and source records attributed to Luke J Zachmann.

2 recordsLinked to original sources

PS3: The Pheno-Synthesis software suite for integration and analysis of multi-scale, multi-platform phenological data

Phenology is the study of recurring plant and animal life-cycle stages which can be observed across spatial and temporal scales that span orders of magnitude (e.g., organisms to landscapes). The variety of scales at which phenological processes operate is reflected in the range of methods for collecting phenologically relevant data, and the programs focused on these collections. Consideration of the scale at which phenological observations are made, and the platform used for observation, is critical for the interpretation of phenological data and the application of these data to both research questions and land management objectives. However, there is currently little capacity to facilitate access, integration and analysis of cross-scale, multi-platform phenological data. This paper reports on a new suite of software and analysis tools – the “Pheno-Synthesis Software Suite,” or PS3 – to facilitate integration and analysis of phenological and ancillary data, enabling investigation and interpretation of phenological processes at scales ranging from organisms to landscapes and from days to decades. We use PS3 to investigate phenological processes in a semi-aride, mixed shrub-grass ecosystem, and find that the apparent importance of seasonal precipitation to vegetation activity (i.e., “greenness”) is affected by the scale and platform of observation. We end by describing potential applications of PS3 to phenological modeling and forecasting, understanding patterns and drivers of phenological activity in real-world ecosystems, and supporting agricultural and natural resource management and decision-making.

Ecological Informatics

Dominant Sonoran Desert plant species have divergent phenological responses to climate change

The southwestern U.S. is a global hotspot of climate change. Models project that temperatures will continue to rise through the end of the 21st century, accompanied by significant changes to the hydrological cycle. Within the Sonoran Desert, a limited number of studies have documented climate change impacts on the phenology of native plant species. Much of this phenological work to understand climate change impacts to phenology builds on research conducted nearly three decades ago to define flowering triggers and developmental requirements for native keystone Sonoran Desert woody species. Here we expand on the drivers and explore recent phenological trends for six species using a unique 36-year observational data set. We use statistical models to determine which aspects of climate influence the probability of flowering, and how flowering time may respond to climate change. We move beyond traditional models of phenology by incorporating different metrics of moisture availability in addition to temperature, weather, and climate at several time scales, including daily, weekly, seasonal, and antecedent conditions. Our results provide evidence of a trend towards earlier flowering (on the order of 1–4 days per decade) for five of the six species analyzed, and no trend for one species. The species we evaluated had contrasting phenological responses to different aspects of climate, suggesting individualistic changes in phenology and the potential of divergent plant community flowering patterns under future climate change. Understanding recent changes in flowering phenology and their climatic triggers is important to anticipating whether plant species can attract pollinators, reproduce, and persist within the community under continued climate change.

Arizona