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Lorraine E. Flint

Publications and source records attributed to Lorraine E. Flint.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources
USGS2019

Characterization of hydrology and sediment transport following drought and wildfire in Cache Creek, California

The worst drought in California in over 1,200 years occurred between 2012-2017 (Griffin, 2014), depleting surface water and groundwater supply and drying out the soils past wilting point. In the summer of 2015, the Jerusalem and Rocky fires burned roughly 40,000 acres within the Cache Creek watershed. To fully characterize the post-fire effects in the Cache Creek watershed, an hourly model of streamflow and sediment transport was developed using the Hydrological Simulation Program – FORTRAN (HSPF). This model requires air temperature, precipitation, and potential evapotranspiration as climate inputs. Hourly station data are sparse in the area and may not capture the variability of elevation and local climatology patterns within the watershed. A technique used previously to spatially-interpolate daily-climate station data has improved the characterization of local and regional climate patterns on a daily scale in areas with sparse data (Flint et al., 2014). This technique was extended to hourly observed data to produce spatially-varying climate inputs for the Cache Creek hydrologic model to run as a continuous multi-year simulation with hourly time steps. Monthly PRISM grids were used in a two-step scaling method with climate Gradient and Inverse Distance Squared (GIDS) maps (Nalder and Wein, 1998) to develop daily grids, then the daily grids were used to scale hourly climate GIDS maps. This method captures the temporal variability at each climate station yet preserves the regional monthly spatial structure of the PRISM data. Hydrologic calibration used data from water year 2015, and validation used the same parameters for water year 2016. The model was run through water year 2017 to characterize the effects of wildfire on hydrology and sediment transport. For final simulations, the model was run at an hourly time step from June 2014 through September 2017 to ensure a model initiation period of 4 months prior to the target simulation period used for analysis. Sediment parameters were initially set using the existing Sacramento River Basin model for this sub-watershed area and then iteratively adjusted in the calibration process. To simulate a fire across the landscape, sediment parameters for water years 2016-17 were further modified for burned sub-basins to represent post-fire vegetation and soils in 2016, then partial recovery in 2017. Results were inconclusive for drought and wildfire effects on runoff. Modeled peak flows generally underpredicted observed peak flows; however, the modeled storm volumes were only slightly under or over the observed storm volumes. Sediment transport was sensitive to the watershed disturbances and R^2 values for daily mean suspended concentrations (SSC) and sediment discharge were 0.70 and 0.75, respectively. Simulated hourly values correlated less strongly with observed instantaneous SSC and sediment discharge (R^2 values of 0.56 and 0.46, respectively).

California↗
USGS2018

Rio Grande transboundary integrated hydrologic model and water-availability analysis, New Mexico and Texas, United States, and Northern Chihuahua, Mexico

Errata **September 28, 2018: The purpose of a USGS Open-file report (OFR) is dissemination of information that must be released immediately to fill a public need or information that is not sufficiently refined to warrant publication in one of the other USGS series. As part of that refinement process, an error was discovered in one of the input data sets of the Rio Grande Transboundary Integrated Hydrologic Model (RGTIHM) that this OFR was based upon. The error involved the assignment of storage properties to “phantom cells.” Phantom cells are required for most variants of MODFLOW that use a structured finite-difference grid when individual stratigraphic layers are represented as separate layers. Using phantom cells is a common practice that allows separate model layers to be maintained without having to combine stratigraphic layers into equivalent model layers or to use an unstructured grid. Typically, phantom cell horizontal hydraulic conductivities and storage properties are set to a small number and vertical hydraulic conductivities are set to a number large enough to allow vertical flow between the vertically adjacent layers. In the RGTIHM, the specific storage properties of the phantom cells for the upper (RGTIHM layers 3 and 4), middle (RGTIHM layers 5 and 6), and lower (RGTIHM layers 7 and 8) members of the Santa Fe Group were inadvertently assigned a value of 1 feet -1 . The revision of these specific storage values to a small number (1.0 x 10 -09 feet -1 ) required additional trial-and-error model calibration and a new sensitivity analysis. After calibration, the overall model fit remained similar to the fit described in the OFR, but the fit for many individual features such as project water available for diversions at the American Canal and Acequia Madre improved due to the reduction in flow coming from lower layers. Overall, there is still an average net depletion of groundwater flow, and the conclusions of the report are not changed. The revised average annual groundwater flow depletion simulated for the period 1953-2014 is -1,480 acre-feet/year for the entire model region, and -3,660 acre-feet/year for the portion of the model in the United States. The final version of the model will be the basis of the USGS Scientific Investigations Report that will supersede this OFR. An updated Model Archive of RGTIHM is available upon request to the USGS California Water Science Center. The corrected version of the model WAS the basis for the USGS Scientific Investigations Report that SUPERSEDED this Open-File Report.** Abstract Changes in population, agricultural development and practices (including shifts to more water-intensive crops), and climate variability are increasing demands on available water resources, particularly groundwater, in one of the most productive agricultural regions in the Southwest—the Rincon and Mesilla Valley parts of Rio Grande Valley, Doña Ana and Sierra Counties, New Mexico, and El Paso County, Texas. The goal of this study was to produce an integrated hydrological simulation model to help evaluate water-management strategies, including conjunctive use of surface water and groundwater for historical conditions, and to support long-term planning for the Rio Grande Project. This report describes model construction and applications by the U.S. Geological Survey, working in cooperation and collaboration with the Bureau of Reclamation. This model, the Rio Grande Transboundary Integrated Hydrologic Model, simulates the most important natural and human components of the hydrologic system, including selected components related to variations in climate, thereby providing a reliable assessment of surface-water and groundwater conditions and processes that can inform water users and help improve planning for future conditions and sustained operations of the Rio Grande Project (RGP) by the Bureau of Reclamation. Model development included a revision of the conceptual model of the flow system, construction of a Transboundary Rio Grande Watershed Model (TRGWM) water-balance model using the Basin Characterization Model (BCM), and construction of an integrated hydrologic flow model with MODFLOW-One-Water Hydrologic Flow Model (referred to as One Water). The hydrologic models were developed for and calibrated to historical conditions of water and land use, and parameters were adjusted so that simulated values closely matched available measurements (calibration). The calibrated model was then used to assess the use and movement of water in the Rincon Valley, Mesilla Basin, and northern part of the Conejos-Médanos Basin, with the entire region referred to as the “Transboundary Rio Grande” or TRG. These tools provide a means to understand hydrologic system response to the evolution of water use in the region, its availability, and potential operational constraints of the RGP. The conceptual model identified surface-water and groundwater inflows and outflows that included the movement and use of water both in natural and in anthropogenic systems. The groundwater-flow system is characterized by a layered geologic sedimentary sequence combined with the effects of groundwater pumping, operation of the RGP, natural runoff and recharge, and the application of irrigation water at the land surface that is captured and reused in an extensive network of canals and drains as part of the conjunctive use of water in the region. Historical groundwater-level fluctuations followed a cyclic pattern that were aligned with climate cycles, which collectively resulted in alternating periods of wet or dry years. Periods of drought that persisted for one or more years are associated with low surface-water availability that resulted in higher rates of groundwater-level decline. Rates of groundwater-level decline also increased during periods of agricultural intensification, which necessitated increasing use of groundwater as a source of irrigation water. Agriculture in the area was initially dominated by alfalfa and cotton, but since 1970 more water-intensive pecan orchards and vegetable production have become more common. Groundwater levels substantially declined in subregions where drier climate combined with increased demand, resulting in periods of reduced streamflows. Most of the groundwater was recharged in the Rio Grande Valley floor, and most of the pumpage and aquifer storage depletion was in Mesilla Basin agricultural subregions. A cyclic imbalance between inflows and outflows resulted in the modeled cyclic depletion (groundwater withdrawals in excess of natural recharge) of the groundwater basin during the 75-year simulation period of 1940–2014. Changes in groundwater storage can vary considerably from year to year, depending on land use, pumpage, and climate conditions. Climatic drivers of wet and dry years can greatly affect all inflows, outflows, and water use. Although streamflow and, to a minor extent, precipitation during inter-decadal wet-year periods replenished the groundwater historically, contemporary water use and storage depletion could have reduced the effects of these major recharge events. The average net groundwater flow-rate deficit for 1953–2014 was estimated to be about 8,990 acre-feet per year.

New Mexico, Northern Chihuahua, Texas↗
USGS2018

Soil moisture datasets at five sites in the central Sierra Nevada and northern Coast Ranges, California

In situ soil moisture datasets are important inputs used to calibrate and validate watershed, regional, or statewide modeled and satellite-based soil moisture estimates. The soil moisture dataset presented in this report includes hourly time series of the following: soil temperature, volumetric water content, water potential, and total soil water content. Data were collected by the U.S. Geological Survey at five locations in California: three sites in the central Sierra Nevada and two sites in the northern Coast Ranges. This report provides a description of each of the study areas, procedures and equipment used, processing steps, and time series data from each site in the form of comma-separated values (.csv) tables.

California↗
USGS2018

High‐elevation evapotranspiration estimates during drought: Using streamflow and NASA Airborne Snow Observatory SWE observations to vlose the upper Tuolumne River Basin eater balance

Hydrologic variables such as evapotranspiration (ET) and soil water storage are difficult to observe across spatial scales in complex terrain. Streamflow and lidar‐derived snow observations provide information about distributed hydrologic processes such as snowmelt, infiltration, and storage. We use a distributed streamflow data set across eight basins in the upper Tuolumne River region of Yosemite National Park in the Sierra Nevada mountain range, and the NASA Airborne Snow Observatory (ASO) lidar‐derived snow data set over 3 years (2013–2015) during a prolonged drought in California, to estimate basin‐scale water balance components. We compare snowmelt and cumulative precipitation over periods from the ASO flight to the end of the water year against cumulative streamflow observations. The basin water balance residual term (snow melt plus precipitation minus streamflow) is calculated for each basin and year. Using soil moisture observations and hydrologic model simulations, we show that the residual term represents short‐term changes in basin water storage over the snowmelt season, but that over the period from peak snow water equivalent (SWE) to the end of summer, it represents cumulative basin‐mean ET. Warm‐season ET estimated from this approach is 168 (85–252 at 95% confidence), 162 (0–326) and 191 (48–334) mm averaged across the basins in 2013, 2014, and 2015, respectively. These values are lower than previous full‐year and point ET estimates in the Sierra Nevada, potentially reflecting reduced ET during drought, the effects of spatial variability, and the part‐year time period. Using streamflow and ASO snow observations, we quantify spatially‐distributed hydrologic processes otherwise difficult to observe.

California↗
USGS2018

Characterizing drought in California: new drought indices and scenario-testing in support of resource management

Introduction California’s recent drought (2012–2016) has implications throughout the state for natural resource management and adaptation planning and has generated many discussions about drought characterization and recovery. This study characterizes drought conditions with two indices describing deficits in natural water supply and increases in landscape stress developed on the basis of water balance modeling, at a fine spatial scale to assess the variation in conditions across the entire state, and provides an in-depth evaluation for the Russian River basin in northern California to address local resource management by developing extreme drought scenarios for consideration in planning and adaptation. Methods We employed the USGS Basin Characterization Model to characterize drought on the basis of water supply (a measure of recharge plus runoff) and landscape stress (climatic water deficit). These were applied to the state and to the Russian River basin where antecedent soil moisture conditions were evaluated and extreme drought scenarios were developed and run through a water management and reservoir operations model to further explore impacts on water management. Results Drought indices indicated that as of the end of water year 2016 when reservoirs were full, additional water supply and landscape replenishment of up to three average years of precipitation in some locations was needed to return to normal conditions. Antecedent soil conditions in the Russian River were determined to contribute to very different water supply results for different years and were necessary to understand to anticipate proper watershed response to climate. Extreme drought scenarios manifested very different kinds of drought and recovery and characterization helps to guide the management response to drought. Conclusions These scenarios and indices illustrate how droughts differ with regard to water supply and landscape stress and how long warm droughts recover much more slowly than short very dry droughts due to the depletion of water in the soil and unsaturated zone that require filling before runoff can occur. Recognition of ongoing conditions and likelihood of recovery provides tools and information for a range of resource managers to cope with drought conditions.

California↗
USGS2018

Increasing soil organic carbon to mitigate greenhouse gases and increase climate resiliency for California

Rising air temperatures are projected to continue to drive up urban, agricultural, and rangeland water use, straining both surface and groundwater resources. Scientific studies have shown that managing farms, ranches, and public lands to increase soil carbon can increase soil waterholding capacity and increase hydrologic benefits such as increased baseflows and aquifer recharge, reduced flooding and erosion, and reduced climate-related water deficits. Coincident improvements in forage and crop yields are also indicated, while simultaneously sequestering carbon, reducing atmospheric greenhouse gases and mitigating climate change. This study was developed to consider the multiple benefits of increasing the organic matter content of soils across California’s working lands. Study results indicate that a one-time ¼” application of compost to rangelands can lead to carbon sequestration rates in soils that are maximized after approximately 15 years, and more than offset greenhouse gas emissions stimulated by the compost addition for at least five decades longer. Modeled increases in total soil organic matter of 3% enhanced hydrologic benefits across 97% of working lands, and reduced climate change impacts. Economic valuation indicated all benefits increasing over time, demonstrating a large potential for the California carbon market to support incentives in regionalizing the impacts in the coming decades. Socioeconomic and related land use pressures pose barriers to implementing management practices to increase soil organic matter by driving conversion of rangeland to urban or to more greenhouse-gas emission intensive agriculture. Results can be effectively used with land use change scenarios to identify where on California’s working lands hydrologic benefits of soil organic matter enhancement coincide with development risk, highlighting counties in California in which there may be resilience to climate change when strategic soil management and land conservation are combined.

California↗
USGS2017

Climate change refugia and habitat connectivity promote species persistence

Background Climate change refugia, areas buffered from climate change relative to their surroundings, are of increasing interest as natural resource managers seek to prioritize climate adaptation actions. However, evidence that refugia buffer the effects of anthropogenic climate change is largely missing. Methods Focusing on the climate-sensitive Belding’s ground squirrel ( Urocitellus beldingi ), we predicted that highly connected Sierra Nevada meadows that had warmed less or shown less precipitation change over the last century would have greater population persistence, as measured by short-term occupancy, fewer extirpations over the twentieth century, and long-term persistence measured through genetic diversity. Results Across California, U. beldingi were more likely to persist over the last century in meadows with high connectivity that were defined as refugial based on a suite of temperature and precipitation factors. In Yosemite National Park, highly connected refugial meadows were more likely to be occupied by U. beldingi . More broadly, populations inhabiting Sierra Nevada meadows with colder mean winter temperatures had higher values of allelic richness at microsatellite loci, consistent with higher population persistence in temperature-buffered sites. Furthermore, both allelic richness and gene flow were higher in meadows that had higher landscape connectivity, indicating the importance of metapopulation processes. Conversely, anthropogenic refugia, sites where populations appeared to persist due to food or water supplementation, had lower connectivity, genetic diversity, and gene flow, and thus might act as ecological traps. This study provides evidence that validates the climate change refugia concept in a contemporary context and illustrates how to integrate field observations and genetic analyses to test the effectiveness of climate change refugia and connectivity. Conclusions Climate change refugia will be important for conserving populations as well as genetic diversity and evolutionary potential. Our study shows that in-depth modeling paired with rigorous fieldwork can identify functioning climate change refugia for conservation.

California↗
USGS2017

Erosion of refugia in the Sierra Nevada meadows network with climate change

Climate refugia management has been proposed as a climate adaptation strategy in the face of global change. Key to this strategy is identification of these areas as well as an understanding of how they are connected on the landscape. Focusing on meadows of the Sierra Nevada in California, we examined multiple factors affecting connectivity using circuit theory, and determined how patches have been and are expected to be affected by climate change. Connectivity surfaces varied depending upon the underlying hypothesis, although meadow area and elevation were important features for higher connectivity. Climate refugia that would promote population persistence were identified from downscaled climate layers, based on locations with minimal climatic change from historical conditions. This approach was agnostic to specific species, yielding a broad perspective about changes and localized habitats. Connectivity was not a consistent predictor of refugial status in the 20th century, but expected future climate refugia tended to have higher connectivity than those that recently deviated from historical conditions. Climate change is projected to reduce the number of refugial meadows on a variety of climate axes, resulting in a sparser network of potential refugia across elevations. Our approach provides a straightforward method that can be used as a tool to prioritize places for climate adaptation.

California↗
USGS2016

Climate change influences on pollinator, forest, and farm interactions across a climate gradient

Climate impact models are often implemented at horizontal resolutions (“scales”) too coarse to be readily applied in local impact assessments. However, recent advancements in fine-scale modeling are allowing the creation of impact models that can be applied to landscape-scale adaptation planning. Here, we illustrate the use of fine-scale impact models for landscape-scale adaptation planning of pollination services for six sites in Central America. The strategies include the identification of (1) potential reservoir areas that may retain bee diversity and serve as a source of recolonization after climate shocks such as droughts; and (2) potential restoration areas, where improving forest cover is likely to lead to increases in pollinator services both in the present and in the future. Coarse-scale (>1-km horizontal resolution) climatic controls on pollinator diversity and forest cover determine the general location of these areas in our six landscapes. Fine-scale (<100-m horizontal resolution) variation in climatic water deficit provides an index of forest health which can help identify intervention strategies within these zones. All sites have significant areas in which protecting or restoring forest cover is likely to enhance pollination services. The gradient in rainfall change across the study sites dictates choice of adaptation strategies.

Climatic Change↗
USGS2016

Shrinking windows of opportunity for oak seedling establishment in southern California mountains

Seedling establishment is a critical step that may ultimately govern tree species’ distribution shifts under environmental change. Annual variation in the location of seed rain and microclimates results in transient “windows of opportunity” for tree seedling establishment across the landscape. These establishment windows vary at fine spatiotemporal scales that are not considered in most assessments of climate change impacts on tree species range dynamics and habitat displacement. We integrate field seedling establishment trials conducted in the southern Sierra Nevada and western Tehachapi Mountains of southern California with spatially downscaled grids of modeled water-year climatic water deficit (CWD wy ) and mean August maximum daily temperature ( T max ) to map historical and projected future microclimates suitable for establishment windows of opportunity for Quercus douglasii , a dominant tree species of warm, dry foothill woodlands, and Q. kelloggii , a dominant of cooler, more mesic montane woodlands and forests. Based on quasi-binomial regression models, Q. douglasii seedling establishment is significantly associated with modeled CWD wy and to a lesser degree with modeled T max . Q. kelloggii seedling establishment is most strongly associated with T max and best predicted by a two-factor model including CWD wy and T max . Establishment niche models are applied to explore recruitment window dynamics in the western Tehachapi Mountains, where these species are currently widespread canopy dominants. Establishment windows are projected to decrease by 50–95%, shrinking locally to higher elevations and north-facing slopes by the end of this century depending on the species and climate scenario. These decreases in establishment windows suggest the potential for longer-term regional population declines of the species. While many additional processes regulate seedling establishment and growth, this study highlights the need to account for topoclimatic controls and interannual climatic variation when assessing how seedling establishment and colonization processes could be affected by climate change.

California↗
USGS2016

Characterizing changes in streamflow and sediment supply in the Sacramento River Basin, California, using hydrological simulation program—FORTRAN (HSPF)

A daily watershed model of the Sacramento River Basin of northern California was developed to simulate streamflow and suspended sediment transport to the San Francisco Bay-Delta. To compensate for sparse data, a unique combination of model inputs was developed, including meteorological variables, potential evapotranspiration, and parameters defining hydraulic geometry. A slight decreasing trend of sediment loads and concentrations was statistically significant in the lowest 50% of flows, supporting the observed historical sediment decline. Historical changes in climate, including seasonality and decline of snowpack, contribute to changes in streamflow, and are a significant component describing the mechanisms responsible for the decline in sediment. Several wet and dry hypothetical climate change scenarios with temperature changes of 1.5 °C and 4.5 °C were applied to the base historical conditions to assess the model sensitivity of streamflow and sediment to changes in climate. Of the scenarios evaluated, sediment discharge for the Sacramento River Basin increased the most with increased storm magnitude and frequency and decreased the most with increases in air temperature, regardless of changes in precipitation. The model will be used to develop projections of potential hydrologic and sediment trends to the Bay-Delta in response to potential future climate scenarios, which will help assess the hydrological and ecological health of the Bay-Delta into the next century.

California↗
USGS2016

The role of snowpack, rainfall, and reservoirs in buffering California against drought effects

California’s vast reservoir system, fed by annual snow-and rainfall, plays an important part in providing water to the State’s human and wildlife population. There are almost 1,300 reservoirs throughout the State, but only approximately 200 of them are considered storage reservoirs, and many of the larger ones are critical components of the Federal Central Valley Project and California State Water Project. Storage reservoirs, such as the ones shown in figure 1, capture winter precipitation for use in California’s dry summer months. In addition to engineered reservoir storage, California also depends on water “stored” in the statewide snowpack, which slowly melts during the course of the summer, to augment the State’s water supply.

California↗
USGS2016

Maxent modeling for predicting potential distribution of goitered gazelle in central Iran: the effect of extent and grain size on performance of the model

The spatial scale of environmental layers is an important factor to consider in developing an understanding of ecological processes. This study employed Maxent modeling to investigate the geographic distribution of goitered gazelle, Gazella subgutturosa (Güldenstädt, 1780), in central Iran using uncorrelated variables at a spatial resolution of 250 m. We used spatial downscaling to downscale WorldClim data to 250-m resolution. We evaluated the sensitivity of the model to different grain and extent sizes from 250 m to 3 km. We compared the performance of the model at different scales using suitability indexes (AUC) and predicted habitat areas. Two models performed with AUC values higher than random (AUCun = 0.957, AUCpu = 0.953). The distribution of potential habitats at 250- m grid size was strongly influenced by bioclimatic data, vegetation type and density, and elevation. There were few spatial divergences between uncorrelated and pruned models. The mean AUC across eight different spatial scales ranged from 0.936 to 0.959. There was a significant negative correlation between grain size and AUC (R2 = 0.57). An increase in grain size increased the predicted habitat area. The extent size and AUC showed a positive correlation (R2 = 0.18). Predicted suitability habitat also decreased as extent size increased (R2 = 0.49). Spatial congruence AUC fluctuated within a small range and the maximum difference occurred between models of 1 × 1 and 2.5 × 2.5 km. These results showed that an increase in extent size is more accurate than an increase in grain size, and the maximum accuracy for predicting distribution of goitered gazelle in Iran was obtained if the grain size and extent size were 750 m.

Turkish Journal of Zoology↗
USGS2015

High and dry: high elevations disproportionately exposed to regional climate change in Mediterranean-climate landscapes

Context Predicting climate-driven species&rsquo; range shifts depends substantially on species&rsquo; exposure to climate change. Mountain landscapes contain a wide range of topoclimates and soil characteristics that are thought to mediate range shifts and buffer species&rsquo; exposure. Quantifying fine-scale patterns of exposure across mountainous terrain is a key step in understanding vulnerability of species to regional climate change. Objectives We demonstrated a transferable, flexible approach for mapping climate change exposure in a moisture-limited, mountainous California landscape across 4 climate change projections under phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) for mid-(2040&ndash;2069) and end-of-century (2070&ndash;2099). Methods We produced a 149-year dataset (1951&ndash;2099) of modeled climatic water deficit (CWD), which is strongly associated with plant distributions, at 30-m resolution to map climate change exposure in the Tehachapi Mountains, California, USA. We defined climate change exposure in terms of departure from the 1951&ndash;1980 mean and historical range of variability in CWD in individual years and 3-year moving windows. Results Climate change exposure was generally greatest at high elevations across all future projections, though we encountered moderate topographic buffering on poleward-facing slopes. Historically dry lowlands demonstrated the least exposure to climate change. Conclusions In moisture-limited, Mediterranean-climate landscapes, high elevations may experience the greatest exposure to climate change in the 21st century. High elevation species may thus be especially vulnerable to continued climate change as habitats shrink and historically energy-limited locations become increasingly moisture-limited in the future.

Landscape Ecology↗
USGS2015

Hydrogeology, hydrologic effects of development, and simulation of groundwater flow in the Borrego Valley, San Diego County, California

Executive Summary The Borrego Valley is a small valley (110 square miles) in the northeastern part of San Diego County, California. Although the valley is about 60 miles northeast of city of San Diego, it is separated from the Pacific Ocean coast by the mountains to the west and is mostly within the boundaries of Anza-Borrego Desert State Park. From the time the basin was first settled, groundwater has been the only source of water to the valley. Groundwater is used for agricultural, recreational, and municipal purposes. Over time, groundwater withdrawal through pumping has exceeded the amount of water that has been replenished, causing groundwater-level declines of more than 100 feet in some parts of the basin. Continued pumping has resulted in an increase in pumping lifts, reduced well efficiency, dry wells, changes in water quality, and loss of natural groundwater discharge. As a result, the U.S. Geological Survey began a cooperative study of the Borrego Valley with the Borrego Water District (BWD) in 2009. The purpose of the study was to develop a greater understanding of the hydrogeology of the Borrego Valley Groundwater Basin (BVGB) and to provide tools to help evaluate the potential hydrologic effects of future development. The objectives of the study were to (1) improve the understanding of groundwater conditions and land subsidence, (2) incorporate this improved understanding into a model that would assist in the management of the groundwater resources in the Borrego Valley, and (3) use this model to test several management scenarios. This model provides the capability for the BWD and regional stakeholders to quantify the relative benefits of various options for increasing groundwater storage. The study focuses on the period 1945&ndash;2010, with scenarios 50 years into the future. This report documents and presents (1) an analysis of the conceptual model, (2) a description of the hydrologic features, (3) a compilation and analysis of water-quality data, (4) the measurement and analysis of land subsidence by using geophysical and remote sensing techniques, (5) the development and calibration of a two-dimensional borehole-groundwater-flow model to estimate aquifer hydraulic conductivities, (6) the development and calibration of a three-dimensional (3-D) integrated hydrologic flow model, (7) a water-availability analysis with respect to current climate variability and land use, and (8) potential future management scenarios. The integrated hydrologic model, referred to here as the &ldquo;Borrego Valley Hydrologic Model&rdquo; (BVHM), is a tool that can provide results with the accuracy needed for making water-management decisions, although potential future refinements and enhancements could further improve the level of spatial and temporal resolution and model accuracy. Because the model incorporates time-varying inflows and outflows, this tool can be used to evaluate the effects of temporal changes in recharge and pumping and to compare the relative effects of different water-management scenarios on the aquifer system. Overall, the development of the hydrogeologic and hydrologic models, data networks, and hydrologic analysis provides a basis for assessing surface and groundwater availability and potential water-resource management guidelines.

California↗
USGS2015

Effects of topoclimatic complexity on the composition of woody plant communities

Topography can create substantial environmental variation at fine spatial scales. Shaped by slope, aspect, hill-position and elevation, topoclimate heterogeneity may increase ecological diversity, and act as a spatial buffer for vegetation responding to climate change. Strong links have been observed between climate heterogeneity and species diversity at broader scales, but the importance of topoclimate for woody vegetation across small spatial extents merits closer examination. We established woody vegetation monitoring plots in mixed evergreen-deciduous woodlands that spanned topoclimate gradients of a topographically heterogeneous landscape in northern California. We investigated the association between the structure of adult and regenerating size classes of woody vegetation and multidimensional topoclimate at a fine scale. We found a significant effect of topoclimate on both single-species distributions and community composition. Effects of topoclimate were evident in the regenerating size class for all dominant species (four Quercus spp. , Umbellularia californica and Pseudotsuga menziesii ) but only in two dominant species ( Quercus agrifolia and Quercus garryana ) for the adult size class. Adult abundance was correlated with water balance parameters (e.g. climatic water deficit) and recruit abundance was correlated with an interaction between the topoclimate parameters and conspecific adult abundance (likely reflecting local seed dispersal). However, in all cases, the topoclimate signal was weak. The magnitude of environmental variation across our study site may be small relative to the tolerance of long-lived woody species. Dispersal limitations, management practices and patchy disturbance regimes also may interact with topoclimate, weakening its influence on woody vegetation distributions. Our study supports the biological relevance of multidimensional topoclimate for mixed woodland communities, but highlights that this relationship might be mediated by interacting factors at local scales.

California↗
USGS2015

A framework for effective use of hydroclimate models in climate-change adaptation planning for managed habitats with limited hydrologic response data

Climate-change adaptation planning for managed wetlands is challenging under uncertain futures when the impact of historic climate variability on wetland response is unquantified. We assessed vulnerability of Modoc National Wildlife Refuge (MNWR) through use of the Basin Characterization Model (BCM) landscape hydrology model, and six global climate models, representing projected wetter and drier conditions. We further developed a conceptual model that provides greater value for water managers by incorporating the BCM outputs into a conceptual framework that links modeled parameters to refuge management outcomes. This framework was used to identify landscape hydrology parameters that reflect refuge sensitivity to changes in (1) climatic water deficit (CWD) and recharge, and (2) the magnitude, timing, and frequency of water inputs. BCM outputs were developed for 1981–2100 to assess changes and forecast the probability of experiencing wet and dry water year types that have historically resulted in challenging conditions for refuge habitat management. We used a Yule’s Q skill score to estimate the probability of modeled discharge that best represents historic water year types. CWD increased in all models across 72.3–100 % of the water supply basin by 2100. Earlier timing in discharge, greater cool season discharge, and lesser irrigation season water supply were predicted by most models. Under the worst-case scenario, moderately dry years increased from 10–20 to 40–60 % by 2100. MNWR could adapt by storing additional water during the cool season for later use and prioritizing irrigation of habitats during dry years.

California↗