Geology topics

Li H. Erikson

Publications and source records attributed to Li H. Erikson.

At least 73 records · Page 4Linked to original sources

USGS2017

Clusters of community exposure to coastal flooding hazards based on storm and sea level rise scenarios—implications for adaptation networks in the San Francisco Bay region

Sea level is projected to rise over the coming decades, further increasing the extent of flooding hazards in coastal communities. Efforts to address potential impacts from climate-driven coastal hazards have called for collaboration among communities to strengthen the application of best practices. However, communities currently lack practical tools for identifying potential partner communities based on similar hazard exposure characteristics. This study uses statistical cluster analysis to identify similarities in community exposure to flooding hazards for a suite of sea level rise and storm scenarios. We demonstrate this approach using 63 jurisdictions in the San Francisco Bay region of California (USA) and compare 21 distinct exposure variables related to residents, employees, and structures for six hazard scenario combinations of sea level rise and storms. Results indicate that cluster analysis can provide an effective mechanism for identifying community groupings. Cluster compositions changed based on the selected societal variables and sea level rise scenarios, suggesting that a community could participate in multiple networks to target specific issues or policy interventions. The proposed clustering approach can serve as a data-driven foundation to help communities identify other communities with similar adaptation challenges and to enhance regional efforts that aim to facilitate adaptation planning and investment prioritization.

California↗

USGS2017

Downscaling wind and wavefields for 21st century coastal flood hazard projections in a region of complex terrain

While global climate models (GCMs) provide useful projections of near-surface wind vectors into the 21st century, resolution is not sufficient enough for use in regional wave modeling. Statistically downscaled GCM projections from Multivariate Adaptive Constructed Analogues provide daily averaged near-surface winds at an appropriate spatial resolution for wave modeling within the orographically complex region of San Francisco Bay, but greater resolution in time is needed to capture the peak of storm events. Short-duration high wind speeds, on the order of hours, are usually excluded in statistically downscaled climate models and are of key importance in wave and subsequent coastal flood modeling. Here we present a temporal downscaling approach, similar to constructed analogues, for near-surface winds suitable for use in local wave models and evaluate changes in wind and wave conditions for the 21st century. Reconstructed hindcast winds (1975–2004) recreate important extreme wind values within San Francisco Bay. A computationally efficient method for simulating wave heights over long time periods was used to screen for extreme events. Wave hindcasts show resultant maximum wave heights of 2.2 m possible within the Bay. Changes in extreme over-water wind speeds suggest contrasting trends within the different regions of San Francisco Bay, but 21th century projections show little change in the overall magnitude of extreme winds and locally generated waves.

California↗

USGS2017

Doubling of coastal flooding frequency within decades due to sea-level rise

Global climate change drives sea-level rise, increasing the frequency of coastal flooding. In most coastal regions, the amount of sea-level rise occurring over years to decades is significantly smaller than normal ocean-level fluctuations caused by tides, waves, and storm surge. However, even gradual sea-level rise can rapidly increase the frequency and severity of coastal flooding. So far, global-scale estimates of increased coastal flooding due to sea-level rise have not considered elevated water levels due to waves, and thus underestimate the potential impact. Here we use extreme value theory to combine sea-level projections with wave, tide, and storm surge models to estimate increases in coastal flooding on a continuous global scale. We find that regions with limited water-level variability, i.e., short-tailed flood-level distributions, located mainly in the Tropics, will experience the largest increases in flooding frequency. The 10 to 20 cm of sea-level rise expected no later than 2050 will more than double the frequency of extreme water-level events in the Tropics, impairing the developing economies of equatorial coastal cities and the habitability of low-lying Pacific island nations.

Scientific Reports↗

USGS2017

A model integrating longshore and cross-shore processes for predicting long-term shoreline response to climate change

We present a shoreline change model for coastal hazard assessment and management planning. The model, CoSMoS-COAST (Coastal One-line Assimilated Simulation Tool), is a transect-based, one-line model that predicts short-term and long-term shoreline response to climate change in the 21 st century. The proposed model represents a novel, modular synthesis of process-based models of coastline evolution due to longshore and cross-shore transport by waves and sea-level rise. Additionally, the model uses an extended Kalman filter for data assimilation of historical shoreline positions to improve estimates of model parameters and thereby improve confidence in long-term predictions. We apply CoSMoS-COAST to simulate sandy shoreline evolution along 500 km of coastline in Southern California, which hosts complex mixtures of beach settings variably backed by dunes, bluffs, cliffs, estuaries, river mouths, and urban infrastructure, providing applicability of the model to virtually any coastal setting. Aided by data assimilation, the model is able to reproduce the observed signal of seasonal shoreline change for the hindcast period of 1995-2010, showing excellent agreement between modeled and observed beach states. The skill of the model during the hindcast period improves confidence in the model's predictive capability when applied to the forecast period (2010-2100) driven by GCM-projected wave and sea-level conditions. Predictions of shoreline change with limited human intervention indicate that 31% to 67% of Southern California beaches may become completely eroded by 2100 under sea-level rise scenarios of 0.93 to 2.0 m.

California↗

USGS2017

A multimodal wave spectrum-based approach for statistical downscaling of local wave climate

Characterization of wave climate by bulk wave parameters is insufficient for many coastal studies, including those focused on assessing coastal hazards and long-term wave climate influences on coastal evolution. This issue is particularly relevant for studies using statistical downscaling of atmospheric fields to local wave conditions, which are often multimodal in large ocean basins (e.g. the Pacific). Swell may be generated in vastly different wave generation regions, yielding complex wave spectra that are inadequately represented by a single set of bulk wave parameters. Furthermore, the relationship between atmospheric systems and local wave conditions is complicated by variations in arrival time of wave groups from different parts of the basin. Here, we address these two challenges by improving upon the spatiotemporal definition of the atmospheric predictor used in statistical downscaling of local wave climate. The improved methodology separates the local wave spectrum into “wave families,” defined by spectral peaks and discrete generation regions, and relates atmospheric conditions in distant regions of the ocean basin to local wave conditions by incorporating travel times computed from effective energy flux across the ocean basin. When applied to locations with multimodal wave spectra, including Southern California and Trujillo, Peru, the new methodology improves the ability of the statistical model to project significant wave height, peak period, and direction for each wave family, retaining more information from the full wave spectrum. This work is the base of statistical downscaling by weather types, which has recently been applied to coastal flooding and morphodynamic applications.

Journal of Physical Oceanography↗

USGS2017

Climate change-driven cliff and beach evolution at decadal to centennial time scales

Here we develop a computationally efficient method that evolves cross-shore profiles of sand beaches with or without cliffs along natural and urban coastal environments and across expansive geographic areas at decadal to centennial time-scales driven by 21st century climate change projections. The model requires projected sea level rise rates, extrema of nearshore wave conditions, bluff recession and shoreline change rates, and cross-shore profiles representing present-day conditions. The model is applied to the ~470-km long coast of the Southern California Bight, USA, using recently available projected nearshore waves and bluff recession and shoreline change rates. The results indicate that eroded cliff material, from unarmored cliffs, contribute 11% to 26% to the total sediment budget. Historical beach nourishment rates will need to increase by more than 30% for a 0.25 m sea level rise (~2044) and by at least 75% by the year 2100 for a 1 m sea level rise, if evolution of the shoreline is to keep pace with rising sea levels.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2016

Environmental controls on spatial patterns in the long-term persistence of giant kelp in central California

As marine management is moving towards the practice of protecting static areas, it is 44 important to make sure protected areas capture and protect persistent populations. Rocky reefs in 45 many temperate areas worldwide serve as habitat for canopy forming macroalgae and these 46 structure forming species of kelps (order Laminariales) often serve as important habitat for a great 47 diversity of species. Macrocystis pyrifera is the most common canopy forming kelp species found 48 along the coast of California but the distribution and abundance of M. pyrifera varies in space and 49 time. The purpose of this study is to determine what environmental parameters are correlated with 50 the spatial and temporal persistence of M. pyrifera along the central coast of California and how 51 well those environmental parameters can be used to predict areas where M. pyrifera is more likely 52 to persist. Nine environmental variables considered in this study included depth of the seafloor, 53 structure of the rocky reef, proportion of rocky reef, size of kelp patch, biomass of kelp within a 54 patch, distance from the edge of a kelp patch, sea surface temperature, wave orbital velocities, and 55 population connectivity of individual kelp patches. Using a generalized linear mixed effects model 56 (GLMM), the persistence of M. pyrifera was significantly associated with seven of the nine 57 variables considered: depth, complexity of the rocky reef, proportion of rock, patch biomass, 58 distance from the edge of a patch, population connectivity, and wave-orbital velocities. These 59 seven environmental variables were then used to predict the persistence of kelp across the central 60 coast and these predictions were compared to a reserved dataset of M. pyrifera persistence, which 61 was not used in the creation of the GLMM. The environmental variables were shown to accurately 62 predict the persistence of M. pyrifera within the central coast of California (r = 0.71, P<0.001). 63 Because persistence of giant kelp is important to the community structure of kelp forests, 64 understanding those factors that support persistent populations of M. pyrifera will enable more 65 effective management of these ecosystems.

California↗

USGS2016

Changes to extreme wave climates of islands within the Western Tropical Pacific throughout the 21st century under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, with implications for island vulnerability and sustainability

Waves are the dominant influence on coastal morphology and ecosystem structure of tropical Pacific islands. Wave heights, periods, and directions for the 21st century were projected using near-surface wind fields from four atmosphere-ocean coupled global climate models (GCM) under representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and 8.5. GCM-derived wind fields forced the global WAVEWATCH-III wave model to generate hourly time-series of bulk wave parameters around 25 islands in the mid to western tropical Pacific Ocean for historical (1976–2005), mid-, and end-of-century time periods. Extreme significant wave heights decreased (~10.0%) throughout the 21st century under both climate scenarios compared to historical wave conditions and the higher radiative forcing 8.5 scenario displayed a greater and more widespread decrease in extreme significant wave heights compared to the lower forcing 4.5 scenario. An exception was for the end-of-century June–August season. Offshore of islands in the central equatorial Pacific, extreme significant wave heights displayed the largest changes from historical values. The frequency of extreme events during December–February decreased under RCP 8.5, whereas the frequency increased under RCP 4.5. Mean wave directions often rotated more than 30° clockwise at several locations during June–August, which could indicate a weakening of the trade winds’ influence on extreme wave directions and increasing dominance of Southern Ocean swell or eastern shift of storm tracks. The projected changes in extreme wave heights, directions of extreme events, and frequencies at which extreme events occur will likely result in changes to the morphology and sustainability of island nations.

Global and Planetary Change↗

USGS2016

Seasonal electrical resistivity surveys of a coastal bluff, Barter Island, North Slope Alaska

Select coastal regions of the North Slope of Alaska are experiencing high erosion rates that can be attributed in part to recent warming trends and associated increased storm intensity and frequency. The upper sediment column of the coastal North Slope of Alaska can be described as continuous permafrost underlying a thin (typically less than 1–2 m) active layer that responds variably to seasonal thaw cycles. Assessing the temporal and spatial variability of the active layer and underlying permafrost is essential to better constrain how heightened erosion may impact material fluxes to the atmosphere and the coastal ocean, and how enhanced thaw cycles may impact the stability of the coastal bluffs. In this study, multi-channel electrical resistivity tomography (ERT) was used to image shallow subsurface features of a coastal bluff west of Kaktovik, on Barter Island, northeast Alaska. A comparison of a suite of paired resistivity surveys conducted in early and late summer 2014 provided detailed information on how the active layer and permafrost are impacted during the short Arctic summer. Such results are useful in the development of coastal resilience models that tie together fluvial, terrestrial, climatic, geologic, and oceanographic forcings on shoreline stability.

Alaska↗

USGS2015

Projection of wave conditions in response to climate change: A community approach to global and regional wave downscaling

Future changes in wind-wave climate have broad implications for coastal geomorphology and management. General circulation models (GCM) are now routinely used for assessing climatological parameters, but generally do not provide parameterizations of ocean wind-waves. To fill this information gap, a growing number of studies use GCM outputs to independently downscale wave conditions to global and regional levels. To consolidate these efforts and provide a robust picture of projected changes, we present strategies from the community-derived multi-model ensemble of wave climate projections (COWCLIP) and an overview of regional contributions. Results and strategies from one contributing regional study concerning changes along the eastern North Pacific coast are presented.

Conference Paper↗

USGS2015

Projected wave conditions in the Eastern North Pacific under the influence of two CMIP5 climate scenarios

Hindcast and 21st century winds, simulated by General Circulation Models (GCMs), were used to drive global- and regional-scale spectral wind-wave generation models in the Pacific Ocean Basin to assess future wave conditions along the margins of the North American west coast and Hawaiian Islands. Three-hourly winds simulated by four separate GCMs were used to generate an ensemble of wave conditions for a recent historical time-period (1976–2005) and projections for the mid and latter parts of the 21st century under two radiative forcing scenarios (RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), as defined by the fifth phase of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project (CMIP5) experiments. Comparisons of results from historical simulations with wave buoy and ERA-Interim wave reanalysis data indicate acceptable model performance of wave heights, periods, and directions, giving credence to generating projections. Mean and extreme wave heights are projected to decrease along much of the North American west coast. Extreme wave heights are projected to decrease south of &sim;50°N and increase to the north, whereas extreme wave periods are projected to mostly increase. Incident wave directions associated with extreme wave heights are projected to rotate clockwise at the eastern end of the Aleutian Islands and counterclockwise offshore of Southern California. Local spatial patterns of the changing wave climate are similar under the RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios, but stronger magnitudes of change are projected under RCP 8.5. Findings of this study are similar to previous work using CMIP3 GCMs that indicates decreasing mean and extreme wave conditions in the Eastern North Pacific, but differ from other studies with respect to magnitude and local patterns of change. This study contributes toward a larger ensemble of global and regional climate projections needed to better assess uncertainty of potential future wave climate change, and provides model boundary conditions for assessing the impacts of climate change on coastal systems.

Ocean Modelling↗

USGS2015

Future wave and wind projections for United States and United-States-affiliated Pacific Islands

Changes in future wave climates in the tropical Pacific Ocean from global climate change are not well understood. Spatially and temporally varying waves dominate coastal morphology and ecosystem structure of the islands throughout the tropical Pacific. Waves also impact coastal infrastructure, natural and cultural resources, and coastal-related economic activities of the islands. Wave heights, periods, and directions were forecast through the year 2100 using wind parameter outputs from four atmosphere-ocean global climate models from the Coupled Model Inter-Comparison Project, Phase 5, for Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios 4.5 and 8.5 that correspond to moderately mitigated and unmitigated greenhouse gas emissions, respectively. Wind fields from the global climate models were used to drive a global WAVEWATCH-III wave model and generate hourly time-series of bulk wave parameters for 25 islands in the mid to western tropical Pacific for the years 1976–2005 (historical), 2026–2045 (mid-century projection), and 2085–2100 (end-of-century projection). Although the results show some spatial heterogeneity, overall the December-February extreme significant wave heights, defined as the mean of the top 5 percent of significant wave height time-series data modeled within a specific period, increase from present to mid-century and then decrease toward the end of the century; June-August extreme wave heights increase throughout the century within the Central region of the study area; and September-November wave heights decrease strongly throughout the 21st century, displaying the largest and most widespread decreases of any season. Peak wave periods increase east of the International Date Line during the December-February and June-August seasons under RCP4.5. Under the RCP8.5 scenario, wave periods decrease west of the International Date Line during December-February but increase in the eastern half of the study area. Otherwise, wave periods decrease throughout the study area during other seasons. Extreme wave directions in equatorial Micronesia during June-August undergo an approximate 30° clockwise rotation from primarily west to northwest. September-November RCP4.5 extreme mean wave directions rotate counterclockwise by approximately 30 to 45° in equatorial Micronesia; September-November RCP8.5 extreme mean wave directions within equatorial Micronesia rotate clockwise by approximately 20 to 30°. Extreme wind speeds decreased within both scenarios, with the largest decreases occurring in the September-November season. Extreme wind directions under RCP4.5 rotated clockwise by more than 60° in equatorial Micronesia during the September-November season and by approximately 30° during June-August. RCP8.5 extreme wind directions rotated counterclockwise during September-November within the same region by 30 to 50° and clockwise by 30 to 40° at one island. The spatial patterns and trends are similar between the two different greenhouse gas emission scenarios, with the magnitude and extent of the trends generally greater for the higher (RCP8.5) scenario.

Micronesia, Pacific Ocean↗

USGS2015

Hindcast storm events in the Bering Sea for the St. Lawrence Island and Unalakleet Regions, Alaska

This study provides viable estimates of historical storm-induced water levels in the coastal communities of Gambell and Savoonga situated on St. Lawrence Island in the Bering Sea, as well as Unalakleet located at the head of Norton Sound on the western coast of Alaska. Gambell, Savoonga, and Unalakleet are small Native Villages that are regularly impacted by coastal storms but where little quantitative information about these storms exists. The closest continuous water-level gauge is at Nome, located more than 200 kilometers from both St. Lawrence Island and Unalakleet. In this study, storms are identified and quantified using historical atmospheric and sea-ice data and then used as boundary conditions for a suite of numerical models. The work includes storm-surge (temporary rise in water levels due to persistent strong winds and low atmospheric pressures) modeling in the Bering Strait region, as well as modeling of wave runup along specified sections of the coast in Gambell and Unalakleet. Modeled historical water levels are used to develop return periods of storm surge and storm surge plus wave runup at key locations in each community. It is anticipated that the results will fill some of the data void regarding coastal flood data in western Alaska and be used for production of coastal vulnerability maps and community planning efforts.

Alaska↗

USGS2015

Modeled changes in extreme wave climates of the tropical Pacific over the 21st century: Implications for U.S. and U.S.-Affiliated atoll islands

Wave heights, periods, and directions were forecast for 2081–2100 using output from four coupled atmosphere–ocean global climate models for representative concentration pathway scenarios RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Global climate model wind fields were used to drive the global WAVEWATCH-III wave model to generate hourly time-series of bulk wave parameters for 25 islands in the mid to western tropical Pacific. December–February 95th percentile extreme significant wave heights under both climate scenarios decreased by 2100 compared to 1976–2010 historical values. Trends under both scenarios were similar, with the higher-emission RCP8.5 scenario displaying a greater decrease in extreme significant wave heights than where emissions are reduced in the RCP4.5 scenario. Central equatorial Pacific Islands displayed the greatest departure from historical values; significant wave heights decreased there by as much as 0.32 m during December–February and associated wave directions rotated approximately 30° clockwise during June–August compared to hindcast data.

Pacific atoll islands↗

USGS2014

Development of the Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) for predicting the impact of storms on high-energy, active-margin coasts

The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) applies a predominantly deterministic framework to make detailed predictions (meter scale) of storm-induced coastal flooding, erosion, and cliff failures over large geographic scales (100s of kilometers). CoSMoS was developed for hindcast studies, operational applications (i.e., nowcasts and multiday forecasts), and future climate scenarios (i.e., sea-level rise + storms) to provide emergency responders and coastal planners with critical storm hazards information that may be used to increase public safety, mitigate physical damages, and more effectively manage and allocate resources within complex coastal settings. The prototype system, developed for the California coast, uses the global WAVEWATCH III wave model, the TOPEX/Poseidon satellite altimetry-based global tide model, and atmospheric-forcing data from either the US National Weather Service (operational mode) or Global Climate Models (future climate mode), to determine regional wave and water-level boundary conditions. These physical processes are dynamically downscaled using a series of nested Delft3D-WAVE (SWAN) and Delft3D-FLOW (FLOW) models and linked at the coast to tightly spaced XBeach (eXtreme Beach) cross-shore profile models and a Bayesian probabilistic cliff failure model. Hindcast testing demonstrates that, despite uncertainties in preexisting beach morphology over the ~500 km alongshore extent of the pilot study area, CoSMoS effectively identifies discrete sections of the coast (100s of meters) that are vulnerable to coastal hazards under a range of current and future oceanographic forcing conditions, and is therefore an effective tool for operational and future climate scenario planning.

Natural Hazards↗

USGS2013

Tidally influenced alongshore circulation at an inlet-adjacent shoreline

The contribution of tidal forcing to alongshore circulation inside the surfzone is investigated at a 7 km long sandy beach adjacent to a large tidal inlet. Ocean Beach in San Francisco, CA (USA) is onshore of a &sim;150 km2 ebb-tidal delta and directly south of the Golden Gate, the sole entrance to San Francisco Bay. Using a coupled flow-wave numerical model, we find that the tides modulate, and in some cases can reverse the direction of, surfzone alongshore flows through two separate mechanisms. First, tidal flow through the inlet results in a barotropic tidal pressure gradient that, when integrated across the surfzone, represents an important contribution to the surfzone alongshore force balance. Even during energetic wave conditions, the tidal pressure gradient can account for more than 30% of the total alongshore pressure gradient (wave and tidal components) and up to 55% during small waves. The wave driven component of the alongshore pressure gradient results from alongshore wave height and corresponding setup gradients induced by refraction over the ebb-tidal delta. Second, wave refraction patterns over the inner shelf are tidally modulated as a result of both tidal water depth changes and strong tidal flows (&sim;1 m/s), with the effect from currents being larger. These tidally induced changes in wave refraction result in corresponding variability of the alongshore radiation stress and pressure gradients within the surfzone. Our results indicate that tidal contributions to the surfzone force balance can be significant and important in determining the direction and magnitude of alongshore flow.

California↗

USGS2013

Sediment transport patterns in the San Francisco Bay Coastal System from cross-validation of bedform asymmetry and modeled residual flux

The morphology of ~ 45,000 bedforms from 13 multibeam bathymetry surveys was used as a proxy for identifying net bedload sediment transport directions and pathways throughout the San Francisco Bay estuary and adjacent outer coast. The spatially-averaged shape asymmetry of the bedforms reveals distinct pathways of ebb and flood transport. Additionally, the region-wide, ebb-oriented asymmetry of 5% suggests net seaward-directed transport within the estuarine-coastal system, with significant seaward asymmetry at the mouth of San Francisco Bay (11%), through the northern reaches of the Bay (7-8%), and among the largest bedforms (21% for λ > 50 m). This general indication for the net transport of sand to the open coast strongly suggests that anthropogenic removal of sediment from the estuary, particularly along clearly defined seaward transport pathways, will limit the supply of sand to chronically eroding, open-coast beaches. The bedform asymmetry measurements significantly agree (up to ~ 76%) with modeled annual residual transport directions derived from a hydrodynamically-calibrated numerical model, and the orientation of adjacent, flow-sculpted seafloor features such as mega-flute structures, providing a comprehensive validation of the technique. The methods described in this paper to determine well-defined, cross-validated sediment transport pathways can be applied to estuarine-coastal systems globally where bedforms are present. The results can inform and improve regional sediment management practices to more efficiently utilize often limited sediment resources and mitigate current and future sediment supply-related impacts.

California↗

USGS2013

Integration of bed characteristics, geochemical tracers, current measurements, and numerical modeling for assessing the provenance of beach sand in the San Francisco Bay Coastal System

Over 150 million m 3 of sand-sized sediment has disappeared from the central region of the San Francisco Bay Coastal System during the last half century. This enormous loss may reflect numerous anthropogenic influences, such as watershed damming, bay-fill development, aggregate mining, and dredging. The reduction in Bay sediment also appears to be linked to a reduction in sediment supply and recent widespread erosion of adjacent beaches, wetlands, and submarine environments. A unique, multi-faceted provenance study was performed to definitively establish the primary sources, sinks, and transport pathways of beach-sized sand in the region, thereby identifying the activities and processes that directly limit supply to the outer coast. This integrative program is based on comprehensive surficial sediment sampling of the San Francisco Bay Coastal System, including the seabed, Bay floor, area beaches, adjacent rock units, and major drainages. Analyses of sample morphometrics and biological composition (e.g., Foraminifera) were then integrated with a suite of tracers including 87 Sr/ 86 Sr and 143 Nd/ 144 Nd isotopes, rare earth elements, semi-quantitative X-ray diffraction mineralogy, and heavy minerals, and with process-based numerical modeling, in situ current measurements, and bedform asymmetry to robustly determine the provenance of beach-sized sand in the region.

California↗