Geology topics
Lee Siebert
Publications and source records attributed to Lee Siebert.
Lateral edifice collapse and volcanic debris avalanches: A post-1980 Mount St. Helens perspective
The 1980 eruption of Mount St. Helens was instrumental in advancing understanding of how volcanoes work. Lateral edifice collapses and the generation of volcanic debris avalanches were not widely recognized prior to that eruption, making assessment of their hazards and risks challenging. The proliferation of studies since 1980 on resulting deposits and evaluation of processes leading to their generation has built on the insights from the 1980 eruption. Volcano-related destabilizing phenomena, such as strength reduction by hydrothermal alteration, deformation and structural modifications from shallow magma intrusion, and thermal pressurization of pore fluids supplement those factors also affecting nonvolcanic slopes and can lead to larger failures. Remote and ground-based monitoring techniques can aid in detecting potentially destabilizing dynamic processes and in forecasting the size and location of future large lateral collapses, although forecasting remains a topic of investigation. More than a thousand large lateral collapse events likely ≥ 0.01 km 3 in volume have now been identified from deposits or inferred from source area morphology, leading to a recognition of their importance in the evolution of volcanoes and the hazards they pose. Criteria for recognition of debris-avalanche deposits include morphological factors and textural characteristics from outcrop to microscopic scale, allowing discrimination from other volcaniclastic deposits. Lateral edifice failure impacts a broad spectrum of volcanic structures in diverse tectonic settings and can occur multiple times during the evolution of individual volcanoes. Globally, collapses ≥ 0.1 km 3 in volume have been documented 5–6 times per century since 1500 CE, with about one per century having a volume ≥ 1 km 3 . Smaller events < 0.1 km 3 are underrepresented in the earlier record but also have high hazard impact.
When volcanoes fall down—Catastrophic collapse and debris avalanches
Despite their seeming permanence, volcanoes are prone to catastrophic collapse that can affect vast areas in a matter of minutes. Large collapses begin as gigantic landslides that quickly transform to debris avalanches—chaotically tumbling masses of rock debris that can sweep downslope at extremely high velocities, inundating areas far beyond the volcano. Rapid burial by the debris avalanches themselves, associated eruptions and lahars (volcanic mudflows), and inundation by tsunamis triggered when avalanches impact bodies of water can all cause widespread devastation to people and property.
Geologic field-trip guide of volcaniclastic sediments from snow- and ice-capped volcanoes—Mount St. Helens, Washington, and Mount Hood, Oregon
This field guide for the International Association of Volcanology and Chemistry of the Earth’s Interior (IAVCEI) Scientific Assembly 2017 focuses on volcaniclastic sediments from Mount St. Helens in Washington and Mount Hood in Oregon. The trip spends four days in the field and includes nine stops at each volcano. For completeness, this guidebook also includes sixteen optional stops in the Mount St. Helens area and three in the Mount Hood area. These two volcanoes provide excellent depositional records of the broad spectrum of volcanic hazards that involve the flow or fall of volcaniclastic particles. At the field-trip stops we will contrast and compare the different types of deposits—sediments that can be frustratingly difficult to distinguish from one another. Correct identification of deposit origin leads to a better understanding of hazards that can impact vulnerable communities at particular volcanoes. During this four-day field trip, we will spend two days in the Mount St. Helens area and two days near Mount Hood. On the first day, we will visit debris-avalanche and lahar deposits in the Toutle River valley in Washington. The second day will focus on pyroclastic density current, pyroclastic-fall, lahar, and volcano-fluvial deposits in the Lewis River drainage system near Mount St. Helens. On the third day, we will visit hyaloclastites, glacial tills, and other diamicts in the Hood River and Sandy River basins near Mount Hood. The fourth and final day will focus on distal lahar and volcano-fluvial deposits downstream of Mount Hood. What follows is an in-depth introduction to the deposits studied on this field trip. We provide criteria that are observable in the field to aid in differentiating between pyroclastic density current, pyroclastic-fall, debris-avalanche, lahar, water-flood, and glacial deposits. We also introduce the Holocene eruptive histories of Mount St. Helens and Mount Hood and discuss the processes responsible for deposit emplacement. Field-trip stops and features of interest along the route are described in detail in a road log that provides daily cumulative mileage.
A statistical analysis of the global historical volcanic fatalities record
A new database of volcanic fatalities is presented and analysed, covering the period 1600 to 2010 AD. Data are from four sources: the Smithsonian Institution, Witham (2005), CRED EM-DAT and Munich RE. The data were combined and formatted, with a weighted average fatality figure used where more than one source reports an event; the former two databases were weighted twice as strongly as the latter two. More fatal incidents are contained within our database than similar previous works; approximately 46% of the fatal incidents are listed in only one of the four sources, and fewer than 10% are in all four. 278,880 fatalities are recorded in the database, resultant from 533 fatal incidents. The fatality count is dominated by a handful of disasters, though the majority of fatal incidents have caused fewer than ten fatalities. Number and empirical probability of fatalities are broadly correlated with VEI, but are more strongly influenced by population density around volcanoes and the occurrence and extent of lahars (mudflows) and pyroclastic density currents, which have caused 50% of fatalities. Indonesia, the Philippines, and the West Indies dominate the spatial distribution of fatalities, and there is some negative correlation between regional development and number of fatalities. With the largest disasters removed, over 90% of fatalities occurred between 5 km and 30 km from volcanoes, though the most devastating eruptions impacted far beyond these distances. A new measure, the Volcano Fatality Index, is defined to explore temporal changes in societal vulnerability to volcanic hazards. The measure incorporates population growth and recording improvements with the fatality data, and shows prima facie evidence that vulnerability to volcanic hazards has fallen during the last two centuries. Results and interpretations are limited in scope by the underlying fatalities data, which are affected by under-recording, uncertainty, and bias. Attempts have been made to estimate the extent of these issues, and to remove their effects where possible. The data analysed here are provided as supplementary material. An updated version of the Smithsonian fatality database fully integrated with this database will be publicly available in the near future and subsequently incorporate new data.
A multidisciplinary effort to assign realistic source parameters to models of volcanic ash-cloud transport and dispersion during eruptions
During volcanic eruptions, volcanic ash transport and dispersion models (VATDs) are used to forecast the location and movement of ash clouds over hours to days in order to define hazards to aircraft and to communities downwind. Those models use input parameters, called “eruption source parameters”, such as plume height H , mass eruption rate Ṁ , duration D , and the mass fraction m 63 of erupted debris finer than about 4ϕ or 63 μm, which can remain in the cloud for many hours or days. Observational constraints on the value of such parameters are frequently unavailable in the first minutes or hours after an eruption is detected. Moreover, observed plume height may change during an eruption, requiring rapid assignment of new parameters. This paper reports on a group effort to improve the accuracy of source parameters used by VATDs in the early hours of an eruption. We do so by first compiling a list of eruptions for which these parameters are well constrained, and then using these data to review and update previously studied parameter relationships. We find that the existing scatter in plots of H versus Ṁ yields an uncertainty within the 50% confidence interval of plus or minus a factor of four in eruption rate for a given plume height. This scatter is not clearly attributable to biases in measurement techniques or to well-recognized processes such as elutriation from pyroclastic flows. Sparse data on total grain-size distribution suggest that the mass fraction of fine debris m 63 could vary by nearly two orders of magnitude between small basaltic eruptions (∼ 0.01) and large silicic ones (> 0.5). We classify eleven eruption types; four types each for different sizes of silicic and mafic eruptions; submarine eruptions; “brief” or Vulcanian eruptions; and eruptions that generate co-ignimbrite or co-pyroclastic flow plumes. For each eruption type we assign source parameters. We then assign a characteristic eruption type to each of the world's ∼ 1500 Holocene volcanoes. These eruption types and associated parameters can be used for ash-cloud modeling in the event of an eruption, when no observational constraints on these parameters are available.
Technical-information products for a National Volcano Early Warning System
Technical outreach — distinct from general-interest and K-12 educational outreach — for volcanic hazards is aimed at providing usable scientific information about potential or ongoing volcanic activity to public officials, businesses, and individuals in support of their response, preparedness, and mitigation efforts. Within the context of a National Volcano Early Warning System (NVEWS) (Ewert et al., 2005), technical outreach is a critical process, transferring the benefits of enhanced monitoring and hazards research to key constituents who have to initiate actions or make policy decisions to lessen the hazardous impact of volcanic activity. This report discusses recommendations of the Technical-Information Products Working Group convened in 2006 as part of the NVEWS planning process. The basic charge to the Working Group was to identify a web-based, volcanological "product line" for NVEWS to meet the specific hazard-information needs of technical users. Members of the Working Group were: Marianne Guffanti (Chair), USGS, Reston VA Steve Brantley, USGS, Hawaiian Volcano Observatory HI Peter Cervelli, USGS, Alaska Volcano Observatory, Anchorage AK Chris Nye, Division of Geological and Geophysical Surveys and Alaska Volcano Observatory, Fairbanks AK George Serafino, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Camp Springs MD Lee Siebert, Smithsonian Institution, Washington DC Dina Venezky, USGS, Volcano Hazards Team, Menlo Park CA Lisa Wald, USGS, Earthquake Hazards Program, Golden CO
Multiple edifice-collapse events in the Eastern Mexican Volcanic Belt: The role of sloping substrate and implications for hazard assessment
The Citlalte??petl-Cofre de Perote volcanic chain forms an important physiographic barrier that separates the Central Altiplano (2500??masl) from the Gulf Coastal Plain (GCP) (1300??masl). The abrupt eastward drop in relief between these provinces gives rise to unstable conditions and consequent gravitational collapse of large volcanic edifices built at the edge of the Altiplano. Eastward sloping substrate, caused by the irregular configuration of the basement rocks, is the dominant factor that controls the direction of collapsing sectors in all major volcanoes in the region to be preferentially towards the GCP. These collapses produced voluminous debris avalanches and lahars that inundated the well-developed drainages and clastic aprons that characterize the Coastal Plain. Large catastrophic collapses from Citlalte??petl, Las Cumbres, and Cofre de Perote volcanoes are well documented in the geologic record. Some of the avalanches and transformed flows have exceptionally long runouts and reach the Gulf of Mexico traveling more than 120??km from their source. So far, no direct evidence has been found for magmatic activity associated with the initiation of these catastrophic flank-collapses. Apparently, instability of the volcanic edifices has been strongly favored by very intense hydrothermal alteration, abrupt topographic change, and intense fracturing. In addition to the eastward slope of the substrate, the reactivation of pre-volcanic basement structures during the Late Tertiary, and the E-W to ENE-SSW oriented regional stress regimes may have played an important role in the preferential movement direction of the avalanches and flows. In addition to magmatic-hydrothermal processes, high amounts of rainfall in the area is another factor that enhances alteration and eventually weakens the rocks. It is very likely that seismic activity may be the principal triggering mechanism that caused the flank collapse of large volcanic edifices in the Eastern Mexican Volcanic Belt. However, critical pore water pressure from extraordinary amounts of rainfall associated with hurricanes or other meteorological perturbation cannot be ruled out, particularly for smaller volume collapses. There are examples in the area of small seismogenic debris flows that have occurred in historical times, showing that these processes are not uncommon. Assessing the stability conditions of major volcanic edifices that have experienced catastrophic sector collapses is crucial for forecasting future events. This is particularly true for the Eastern Mexican Volcanic Belt, where in many cases no magmatic activity was associated with the collapse. Therefore, edifice failure could occur again without any precursory warning. ?? 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Large-volume volcanic edifice failures in Central America and associated hazards
Edifice-collapse phenomena have, to date, received relatively little attention in Central America, although ∼40 major collapse events (≥0.1 km 3 ) from about two dozen volcanoes are known or inferred in this volcanic arc. Volcanoes subjected to gravitational failure are concentrated at the arc's western and eastern ends. Failures correlate positively with volcano elevation, substrate elevation, edifice height, volcano volume, and crustal thickness and inversely with slab descent angle. Collapse orientations are strongly influenced by the direction of slope of the underlying basement, and hence are predominately perpendicular to the arc (preferentially to the south) at its extremities and display more variable failure directions in the center of the arc. The frequency of collapse events in Central America is poorly constrained because of the lack of precise dating of deposits, but a collapse interval of ∼1000–2000 yr has been estimated during the Holocene. These high-impact events fortunately occur at low frequency, but the proximity of many Central American volcanoes to highly populated regions, including some of the region's largest cities, requires evaluation of their hazards. The primary risks are from extremely mobile debris avalanches and associated lahars, which in Central America have impacted now-populated areas up to ∼50 km from a source volcano. Lower probability risks associated with volcanic edifice collapse derive from laterally directed explosions and tsunamis. The principal hazards of the latter here result from potential impact of debris avalanches into natural or man-made lakes. Much work remains on identifying and describing debris-avalanche deposits in Central America. The identification of potential collapse sites and assessing and monitoring the stability of intact volcanoes is a major challenge for the next decade.
Geodynamic map of the Circum-Pacific region, Arctic sheet
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Volcanic hazards from Bezymianny- and Bandai-type eruptions
Major slope failures are a significant degradational process at volcanoes. Slope failures and associated explosive eruptions have resulted in more than 20 000 fatalities in the past 400 years; the historic record provides evidence for at least six of these events in the past century. Several historic debris avalanches exceed 1 km3 in volume. Holocene avalanches an order of magnitude larger have traveled 50-100 km from the source volcano and affected areas of 500-1500 km2. Historic eruptions associated with major slope failures include those with a magmatic component (Bezymianny type) and those solely phreatic (Bandai type). The associated gravitational failures remove major segments of the volcanoes, creating massive horseshoe-shaped depressions commonly of caldera size. The paroxysmal phase of a Bezymianny-type eruption may include powerful lateral explosions and pumiceous pyroclastic flows; it is often followed by construction of lava dome or pyroclastic cone in the new crater. Bandai-type eruptions begin and end with the paroxysmal phase, during which slope failure removes a portion of the edifice. Massive volcanic landslides can also occur without related explosive eruptions, as at the Unzen volcano in 1792. The main potential hazards from these events derive from lateral blasts, the debris avalanche itself, and avalanche-induced tsunamis. Lateral blasts produced by sudden decompression of hydrothermal and/or magmatic systems can devastate areas in excess of 500km2 at velocities exceeding 100 m s-1. The ratio of area covered to distance traveled for the Mount St. Helens and Bezymianny lateral blasts exceeds that of many pyroclastic flows or surges of comparable volume. The potential for large-scale lateral blasts is likely related to the location of magma at the time of slope failure and appears highest when magma has intruded into the upper edifice, as at Mount St. Helens and Bezymianny. Debris avalanches can move faster than 100 ms-1 and travel tens of kilometers. When not confined by valley walls, avalanches can affect wide areas beyond the volcano's flanks. Tsunamis from debris avalanches at coastal volcanoes have caused more fatalities than have the landslides themselves or associated eruptions. The probable travel distance (L) of avalanches can be estimated by considering the potential vertical drop (H). Data from a catalog of around 200 debris avalanches indicates that the H/L rations for avalanches with volumes of 0.1-1 km3 average 0.13 and range 0.09-0.18; for avalanches exceeding 1 km3, H/L ratios average 0.09 and range 0.5-0.13. Large-scale deformation of the volcanic edefice and intense local seismicity precede many slope failures and can indicate the likely failure direction and orientation of potential lateral blasts. The nature and duration of precursory activity vary widely, and the timing of slope faliure greatly affects the type of associated eruption. Bandai-type eruptions are particularly difficult to anticipate because they typically climax suddenly without precursory eruptions and may be preceded by only short periods of seismicity. ?? 1987 Springer-Verlag.