Geology topics

Kyle W. Blasch

Publications and source records attributed to Kyle W. Blasch.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2026

Evaluation of submersible pressure transducers for streamflow monitoring in small streams

Compact streamgages requiring minimal infrastructure and equipped with submersible pressure transducers (PTs) are increasingly used to monitor small streams, yet disparate implementations obscure their accuracy under real-world conditions. This study isolated instrumentation-derived uncertainty in stage monitoring by co-locating various combinations of commercial vented and unvented PTs with seven U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) reference streamgages on small streams. Multi-year PT stage records from compact streamgages, collected and corrected following USGS protocols, were compared to concurrent reference observations. Vented PTs demonstrated an average measurement uncertainty of ±0.005 m and mean absolute percent error (MAPE) of ±0.2%. Unvented PTs exhibited higher uncertainty, averaging ±0.009 m and ±0.4% MAPE. Although both sensor types had stage errors up to ±0.3 m, 95% of vented PT and unvented PT observations were within 0.01 and 0.02 m of reference stage, respectively. Analysis of additional unvented PTs revealed stage errors of up to ±1.2% when using barometric sensors within 15 km of the in-water sensor. Propagation of stage error to discharge using reference rating models resulted in cumulative discharge MAPEs of ±4.5% for vented and ±5.5% for unvented PTs. These findings highlight PTs as practical alternatives to reference instrumentation when deployed with standardized procedures, potentially expanding access to reliable streamflow data.

conterminous United States↗

USGS2024

U.S. Geological Survey data strategy 2023–33

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has long recognized the strategic importance and value of well-managed data assets as an integral component of scientific integrity and foundational to the advancement of scientific research, decision making, and public safety. The USGS investment in the science lifecycle, including collection of unbiased data assets, interpretation, peer review, interpretive publications, and data release, ultimately contributes to the transparency and availability of science. Foundational Government directives and laws, such as the Foundations for Evidence-Based Policymaking Act of 2018 (Public Law 115–435, 132 Stat. 5529) as well as Executive Order 13642, “Making Open and Machine Readable the New Default for Government Information,” provide a framework for addressing strategic data management. The USGS Data Strategy builds on that framework by outlining high-level goals and objectives that serve as a long-term, decadal guide toward achieving a broad, data-focused vision. Benefits of the USGS Data Strategy are many. The USGS will contribute to open science by increasing efficiencies in the consistent management of valuable data assets; driving innovation that results in modernized capabilities to ensure data are analysis ready; increasing data skills across the Bureau to enhance workforce data literacy; broadening capacity to understand and address needs of stakeholders; and measuring progress in producing findable, accessible, interoperable, and reusable (FAIR) data products. The major goals and objectives of the USGS Data Strategy promote maximizing the utility of USGS data based on stakeholder needs, promoting data innovation, coordinating common data practices, modernizing our USGS enterprise data architecture, and enhancing our data-centric culture. The goals and objectives in the strategy align with other Bureau strategic plans, guidance, and directives from the Department of the Interior and the Federal Government. This strategy is a key component to strengthen the Bureau’s data ecosystem to ensure a relevant, long-term capacity that supports internal needs and achieves its scientific mission in the most efficient and effective manner.

Circular↗

USGS2023

A survey of non-USGS continuous streamflow gaging networks in the Pacific Northwest

Extensive streamflow data sources exist beyond the largest streamflow data provider in the United States, the U.S. Geological Survey. We developed and distributed a survey to about 300 individuals and organizations that collect streamflow data across the Pacific Northwest (Idaho, Oregon, Washington). We received 100 responses with 56% of those sufficiently complete to include in the analysis. From these responses, there are about 2000 streamflow monitoring locations in the region beyond the USGS monitoring network. The duration of record for gages is related to the size of the streamflow gaging network, with small and large networks generally operating monitoring locations for less than 5 years and more than 10 years, respectively. Quality assurance and quality control are variable across organizations, with 41% of respondents having at least two review steps and 13% that audit their data for long-term consistency. Results of this survey begin to establish the differing capabilities of large and small stream gaging networks and highlight how supporting the overall quality streamflow data collection and management within the water resources community will improve our ability to harmonize these datasets in the future.

Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Oregon, Washington, Wyomin↗

USGS2023

Integration of distributed streamflow measurement metadata for improved water resource decision-making

Streamflow data are critical for monitoring and managing water resources, yet there are significant spatial gaps in our federal monitoring networks with biases toward large perennial rivers. In some cases, streamflow monitoring exists in these spatial gaps, but information about these monitoring locations is challenging to obtain. Here, we present a streamflow catalog for the United States Pacific Northwest that includes current and historical streamflow monitoring location information obtained from 32 organizations (other than the U.S. Geological Survey), which includes 2661 continuous streamflow gaging locations (22% are currently active) and 30,557 discrete streamflow measurements. A stakeholder advisory board with representatives from organizations that operate streamflow monitoring networks identified metadata requirements and provided feedback on the Streamflow Data Catalog user interface. Engagement with the water resources community through this effort highlighted challenges that water professionals face in collecting and managing streamflow data so that data are findable, accessible, interoperable, and reusable (FAIR). Over 60% of the streamflow monitoring locations in the Streamflow Data Catalog are not available online and are thus not findable through web search engines. Providing organizations technical assistance with standard measurement procedures, metadata collection, and web accessibility could substantially increase the availability and utility of streamflow information to water resources communities.

Water↗

USGS2023

Estimating streamflow permanence with the watershed erosion prediction project model: Implications for surface water presence modeling and data collection

Many data collection efforts and modeling studies have focused on providing accurate estimates of streamflow while fewer efforts have sought to identify when and where surface water is present and the duration of surface water presence in stream channels, hereafter referred to as streamflow permanence. While physically-based hydrological models are frequently used to explore how water quantity may be influenced by various climatic and basin characteristics at local, regional, national, and global extents they are less often used to explore streamflow permanence. Herein, the Watershed Erosion Prediction Project (WEPP) hydrological model is applied to watersheds in the humid H. J. Andrews Experimental Forest (HJA) and watersheds of the arid Willow and Whitehorse creeks (WW), both in Oregon, to simulate daily (WW) and annual (HJA and WW) streamflow permanence. One thousand parameter combinations were tested to calibrate WEPP to observed streamflow in the HJA watersheds and one hundred parameter combinations were tested to calibrate WEPP to observed surface water presence time series data in WW watersheds. When calibrated to observed streamflow, WEPP correctly classified annual streamflow permanence for 83% of HJA stream reaches. In the WW, WEPP simulations correctly classified 63–93% of daily streamflow permanence observations and 59-87% of annual streamflow permanence classifications. Inclusion of a dry-day threshold (the maximum number of days a stream reach could be modeled ‘dry’ but still classified as permanent for the year) improved annual accuracy in three WW watersheds from 2-10%. Parameter sets that produced the best daily accuracies in WW resulted in poor annual accuracies. Results highlight the importance of evaluating physically-based streamflow permanence models on both permanent and nonpermanent streams at daily and annual time scales to ensure evaluation metrics are appropriate for interpretation purposes. Additionally, results suggest that strategic collection of surface water presence observations and streamflow observations may support robust calibration of physically based models to simulate streamflow permanence moving forward.

Oregon↗

USGS2022

Evaluation of select velocity measurement techniques for estimating discharge in small streams across the United States

Multiple instruments and methods exist for collecting discrete streamflow measurements in small streams with low flows, defined here as less than 5.7 m 3 /s (200 ft3/s). Included in the available methods are low-cost approaches that are infrequently used, in part, because their uncertainty is not well known. In this work, we evaluated the accuracy and suitability of three low-cost velocity measurement methods (surface float [SF], velocity head rod [VR], and rising body [RB]) and three conventional current meters (acoustic Doppler velocimeter, and mechanical Price type AA and Price Pygmy meters) relative to discharge calculated from stable artificial hydraulic controls. A total of 231 measurements were made by 20 individuals during 88 site visits to 24 sites in eight states. Accuracies were assessed for all methods and precision was evaluated for the low-cost methods. The median percent error was below 5% for conventional methods, and below 20% for the low-cost methods. The SF was the most accurate (median absolute percent error 14%) and precise (mean percent precision of 11%) low-cost method. The RB and VR, respectively, had 15% and 20% median absolute percent error and 29% and 12% mean percent precision. Results suggest that low-cost methods, when used appropriately, can be used to estimate discharge data under low flow conditions when measurements with conventional methods are not feasible and the associated accuracies meet end-user measurement objectives.

continental United States↗

USGS2022

Precision of headwater stream permanence estimates from a monthly water balance model in the Pacific Northwest, USA

Stream permanence classifications (i.e., perennial, intermittent, ephemeral) are a primary consideration to determine stream regulatory status in the United States (U.S.) and are an important indicator of environmental conditions and biodiversity. However, at present, no models or products adequately describe surface water presence for regulatory determinations. We modified the Thornthwaite monthly water balance model (MWBM) with a flow threshold parameter to estimate flow permanence and evaluated the model’s accuracy and precision for more than 1.3 million headwater stream reaches in the U.S. Pacific Northwest (PNW). Stream reaches were assigned to one of eight calibration groups by unsupervised classification based on sensitivity to MWBM parameters. Suitable MWBM parameter sets were identified by comparing modeled stream permanence estimates to surface water presence observations (SWPO). Parameter sets with accuracies > 65% were considered suitable. The MWBM estimated stream permanence with high precision at 40% of reaches, with poor precision at 20% of reaches, and no suitable parameter sets were identified for 40% of reaches. Results highlight the need for increased SWPO collection to improve calibration and assessment of stream permanence models. Additionally, implementation of the MWBM to estimate surface water presence indicates potential for process-based models to predict stream permanence with future development.

California, Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, ↗

USGS2022

Use case development for earth monitoring, analysis, and prediction (EarthMAP)—A road map for future integrated predictive science at the U.S. Geological Survey

Executive Summary The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) 21st-century science strategy 2020–30 promotes a bureau-wide strategy to develop and deliver an integrated, predictive science capability that works at the scales and timelines needed to inform societally relevant resource management and protection and public safety and environmental health decisions (U.S. Geological Survey, 2021). This is the overarching goal of the USGS Earth Monitoring, Analysis, and Prediction (EarthMAP) vision, which consists of three components: (1) integrated data and information, (2) integrated predictive science, and (3) actionable information—all designed and delivered to respond to user needs. To launch this vision and help shape the design and implementation of integrated predictive science, the USGS Regional Offices each developed a set of use cases (hereafter Use Cases)—short descriptions of potential science applications that could clearly address high priority decision-making needs of our stakeholders and that align with an integrated science focus. Use Cases are not actionable science planning documents, nor stand-alone scholarly works, but should be considered as innovative, next-generation science ideas that can be considered as potential components of science plans still under development. The goal of Use Case development was to (1) identify and characterize existing USGS scientific capacities and expertise that can support science goals and products, (2) identify opportunities to leverage current capacities for next-generation science, and (3) foster engagement across the entire Bureau to further refine the USGS strategy for EarthMAP and integrated predictive science. The Use Case development effort documented in this report was coordinated by the Use Case Development Team (UCDT), consisting of representatives from each region. The UCDT undertook five tasks: (1) develop a unified approach to engage bureau scientists consistently across all regions in aspirational thinking about what can be accomplished; (2) work with the regions and their Science Centers to generate an initial set of Use Cases, authored directly by scientists; (3) characterize, summarize, and document the initial set of Use Case submissions from authors to illuminate bureau-level demand for integrated science; (4) compare existing and needed capacities from the Use Case descriptions with preliminary results of the EarthMAP Capacity Assessment (Keisman and others, 2021); and (5) describe lessons learned from the Use Case development process and provide recommendations to inform future efforts to generate integrated science activities. This report outlines the approach the UCDT developed to solicit Use Cases from the regions and summarizes the high-level qualitative findings from this first-round effort. The UCDT received 36 Use Cases from the regions and identified potential points of convergence and commonalities considered useful in making connections among the participating scientists. The Southwest (SW) Region and the Rocky Mountain (RM) Region asked scientists to give special consideration to Use Cases with applicability to the Colorado River Basin, and seven of the Use Cases specifically named that geographic area as a focus. Coastal hazards and coastal resilience were identified in Use Cases from the Alaska (AK), Northeast (NE), and Southeast (SE) Regions. Aspects of wildfire and post-wildfire response were part of Uses Cases from AK, RM, and SW Regions. The greatest convergence of Use Case themes was related to conservation of public lands and waters, which is a powerful linkage lending strength to future collaborative efforts. The most common type of stakeholder decisions that would be informed by the Use Case science applications were related to adaptation, mitigation, and response (for example, how to increase the resilience of coastal communities to climate-related stressors and how to prevent or respond to harmful algal blooms). Other common types of decisions included water and land management decisions (including operational water management decisions such as reservoir operations and land use planning in the sagebrush biome), decisions about how to manage and conserve habitats and species, and risk management decisions (such as managing the post-wildfire flood risks). These decision types are not exclusive because many Use Cases cross categories. Use Case authors identified existing and needed science and technology capabilities required for Use Case implementation, which were then aligned to capabilities assessed in the EarthMAP Capacity Assessment (Keisman and others, 2021). Strong alignment was found for data and information integration approaches, modeling and prediction approaches, and capabilities related to delivery of actionable information. A majority of Use Cases indicated insufficient current capacity for needed data collection methods, data integration, and modeling and prediction approaches, whereas only 25 percent indicated insufficient capacity for actionable information delivery. Overall, many Use Case capacity demand gaps could potentially be met by existing bureau-wide capacity. In addition, nearly half of the Use Cases could potentially be implemented within 3 years if funding, capabilities, and personnel impediments were removed and science priorities were realigned. Several challenges emerged during the Use Case development process. The first challenge was developing an approach that was flexible enough to accommodate regional differences in planning and implementation, while also ensuring enough guidance to promote meaningful summary analyses. The UCDT encountered a strong demand for continuous communication and education to improve overall understanding of the integrated predictive science strategy. Another challenge was managing expectations about EarthMAP activities as a design effort that was not aligned to an immediate funding opportunity. Connecting the Use Cases to stakeholder needs without the opportunity for direct stakeholder engagement was also challenging. The last notable challenge was in obtaining consistent interpretation and characterization of the qualitative data housed in the narrative descriptions of Use Cases, written in different styles. Overall, the 36 Use Cases can serve as components of a road map for advancing integrated monitoring and predictive science throughout the USGS by revealing opportunities to (1) encourage cross-region initiatives that address shared interests in common themes by integrating similar Use Cases and through direct involvement of stakeholders in identifying needs and designing effective responses, (2) leverage the Use Cases to target investments that are aligned with the Bureau and Department of the Interior (DOI) priorities, (3) connect Use Cases and the results of the companion EarthMAP Capacity Assessment (Keisman and others, 2021) to identify potential priorities for capacity building investments, and (4) raise awareness of common integrated and interdisciplinary science interests within and across the regions through Use Case and Capacity Assessment summary outreach activities.

Open-File Report↗

USGS2022

Predictions and drivers of sub-reach-scale annual streamflow permanence for the upper Missouri River basin: 1989-2018

The presence of year-round surface water in streams (i.e., streamflow permanence) is an important factor for identifying aquatic habitat availability, determining the regulatory status of streams, managing land use change, allocating water resources, and designing scientific studies. However, accurate, high resolution, and dynamic prediction of streamflow permanence that accounts for year-to-year variability at a regional extent is a major gap in modeling capability. Herein, we expand and adapt the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) PRObability of Streamflow PERmanence (PROSPER) model from its original implementation in the Pacific Northwest (PROSPER PNW ) to the upper Missouri River basin (PROSPER UM ), a geographical region that includes mountain and prairie ecosystems of the northern United States. PROSPER UM is an empirical model used to estimate the probability that a stream channel has year-round flow in response to climatic conditions (monthly and annual) and static physiographic predictor variables of the upstream basin. The structure and approach of PROSPER UM are generally consistent with the PROSPER PNW model but include improved spatial resolution (10 m) and a longer modeling period. Average model accuracy was 81 %. Drainage area, upstream proportion as wetlands, and upstream proportion as developed land cover were the most important predictor variables. The PROSPER UM model identifies decreases in streamflow permanence during climatically drier years, although there is variability in the magnitude across basins highlighting geographically varying sensitivity to drought. Variability in the response of perennial streams to drought conditions among basins in the study area was also observed.

Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota, Wyoming↗

USGS2020

The influence of climate variability on the accuracy of NHD perennial and non-perennial stream classifications

National Hydrography Dataset (NHD) stream permanence classifications (SPC; perennial, intermittent, and ephemeral) are widely used for data visualization and applied science, and have implications for resource policy and management. NHD SPC were assigned using a combination of topographic field surveys and interviews with local residents. However, previous studies indicate that non‐NHD, in situ streamflow observations (NNO) frequently disagree with NHD SPC. We hypothesized that differences in annual climate conditions between map creation years and the years NNO were collected contributed to disagreement between NNO and NHD SPC. We compared NHD SPC to 10,055 NNO (classified as “wet” or “dry”) collected in the Pacific Northwest between 1977 and 2015. Annual climate conditions were described with the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI). Stream order was added as a covariate to account for different effects along the stream network. NHD SPC agreed with 80.5% of NNO. “Dry” NNO were five times more likely to disagree with NHD than “wet” NNO ( p < 0.0001). Disagreement was greatest on first‐order streams. When NHD SPC were collected during a wetter period than NNO the probability of disagreement increased by a factor of 1.17 ( p < 0.0001) per unit difference in PDSI. The influence of climate on disagreements between NNO and NHD SPC provides support for the continued development of dynamic models representing SPC as opposed to static NHD classifications.

Journal of the American Water Resources Associatio↗

USGS2020

A guidebook to spatial datasets for conservation planning under climate change in the Pacific Northwest

This guidebook provides user-friendly overviews of a variety of spatial datasets relevant to conservation and management of natural resources in the face of climate change in the Pacific Northwest, United States. Each guidebook chapter was created using a standardized template to summarize a spatial dataset or a group of closely related datasets. Datasets were selected according to standardized criteria based on input through a collaborative process involving researchers and natural-resource managers throughout the Pacific Northwest region. In each chapter, basic spatial and temporal information is provided for the dataset, along with a conceptual overview, glossary of key terms, links to download data and supporting documentation, a brief methods summary describing how the dataset was created, guidelines for dataset interpretation, assessment of uncertainties along with evaluation of caveats and simplifying assumptions, and information about potential and actual conservation applications of the dataset. Collectively, this information provides natural-resource managers with “snapshots” of a variety of datasets representing diverse processes and conditions, including climate projections, changes in hydrologic conditions, vegetation and fire-regime shifts, animal habitat changes, species movements, and topographic and soil conditions relevant to climate change. Along with other types of data and site-specific information, the datasets described in this guidebook have the potential to inform management of valued natural resources throughout the Pacific Northwest region in the context of adaptation to changing climate conditions.

Idaho, Montana, Oregon, Washington↗

USGS2019

Laboratory assessment of alternative stream velocity measurement methods

Understanding streamflow in montane watersheds on regional scales is often incomplete due to a lack of data for small-order streams that link precipitation and snowmelt processes to main stem discharge. This data deficiency is attributed to the prohibitive cost of conventional streamflow measurement methods and the remote location of many small streams. Expedient and low-cost streamflow measurement methods used by resource professionals or citizen scientists can provide scientifically useful solutions to this data deficiency. To this end, four current velocity measurement methods were evaluated in a laboratory flume: the surface float, rising body, velocity head rod, and rising air bubble methods. The methods were tested under a range of stream velocities, cross-sectional depths, and streambed substrates. The resulting measurements provide estimates of precision and bias of each method, as well as method-specific insight and calibration formulas. The velocity head rod and surface float methods were the easiest methods to use, providing greater precision at large (>=0.6 m/s) and small (<0.6 m/s) velocities, respectively. However, the reliance on a velocity ratio for each of these methods can generate inaccuracy in their results. The rising body method is more challenging to execute and of lower precision than the former two methods but provides low bias measurements. The rising air bubble method has a complex instrument assembly that is considered impractical for potential field user groups.

PLoS ONE↗

USGS2019

Probability of streamflow permanence model (PROSPER): A spatially continuous model of annual streamflow permanence throughout the Pacific Northwest

The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) has developed the PRObability of Streamflow PERmanence (PROSPER) model, a GIS raster-based empirical model that provides streamflow permanence probabilities (probabilistic predictions) of a stream channel having year-round flow for any unregulated and minimally-impaired stream channel in the Pacific Northwest region, U.S. The model provides annual predictions for 2004-2016 at a 30-m spatial resolution based on monthly or annually updated values of climatic conditions and static physiographic variables associated with the upstream basin. Predictions correspond to any pixel on the channel network consistent with the medium resolution National Hydrography Dataset channel network stream grid. Total annual precipitation and percent forest cover were consistently the most important predictor variables among global and most subregional models, which had error rates between 17 and 22%. Probabilities were converted to wet and dry streamflow permanence classes with an associated confidence. Wet and dry classifications were used to derive descriptors that characterize the statistical and spatial distribution of streamflow permanence in three focal basins. Predicted dry channel segments account for 52 to 92% of the stream network across the three focal basins; streamflow permanence decreased during climatically drier years. Predictions are publicly available through the USGS StreamStats platform. Results demonstrate the utility of the PROSPER model as a tool for identifying areas that may be resilient or sensitive to drought conditions, allowing for management efforts that target protecting critical reaches. Importantly, PROSPER’s successful predictive performance can be improved with new datasets of streamflow permanence underscoring the importance of field observations.

Idaho, Montana, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, Washington↗

USGS2018

Streamflow contributions from tribal lands to major river basins of the United States

While many studies on tribal water resources of individual tribal lands in the United States (US) have been conducted, the importance of tribal water resources at a national scale has largely gone unrecognized because their combined totals have not been quantified. Thus, we sought to provide a numerical estimate of major water budget components on tribal lands within the conterminous US and on USGS hydrologic unit codes (HUC2) regions. Using existing national-scale data and models, we estimated mean annual precipitation, evapotranspiration, excess precipitation, streamflow, and water use for the period 1971–2000. Tribal lands represent about 3.4 percent of the total land area of the conterminous US and on average account for 1.9 percent of precipitation, 2.4 percent of actual evapotranspiration, 0.95 percent of excess precipitation, 1.6 percent of water use, and 0.43 percent of streamflow origination. Additionally, approximately 9.5 and 11.3 percent of US streamflow flows through or adjacent as boundaries to tribal lands, respectively. Streamflow through or adjacent to tribal lands accounts for 42 and 48 percent of streamflow in the Missouri region, respectively; and for 86 and 88 percent in the Lower Colorado region, respectively. On average, 5,600 million cubic meters of streamflow per year was produced on tribal lands in the Pacific Northwest region, nearly five times greater than tribal lands in any other region. Tribal lands in the Great Lakes, Missouri, Arkansas-White-Red, and California regions all produced between 1,000 and 1,400 million cubic meters per year.

PLoS ONE↗

USGS2017

Using remote sensing to characterize and compare evapotranspiration from different irrigation regimes in the Smith River Watershed of central Montana

According to the 2005 U.S. Geological Survey national water use compilation, irrigation is the second largest use of fresh water in the United States, accounting for 37%, or 484.48 million cubic meters per day, of total freshwater withdrawal. Accurately estimating the amount of water withdrawals and actual consumptive water use (the difference between water withdrawals and return flow) for irrigation at a regional scale is difficult. Remote sensing methods make it possible to compare actual ET (ETa) rates which can serve as a proxy for consumptive water use from different irrigation regimes at a regional scale in a systematic manner. This study investigates crucial components of water use from irrigation such as the difference of ETa rates from flood- and sprinkler-irrigated fields, spatial variability of ETa within a watershed, and the effect of sprinkler irrigation on the water budget of the study area. The mean accumulated ETa depth for the 1,051 square kilometer study area within the upper Smith River watershed was about 467 mm 30-meter per pixel for the 2007 growing season (April through mid-October). The total accumulated volume of ETa for the study area was about 474.705 million cubic meters. The mean accumulated ETa depth from sprinkler-irrigated land was about 687 mm and from flood-irrigated land was about 621 mm from flood-irrigated land. On average, the ETa rate from sprinkler-irrigated fields was 0.25 mm per day higher than flood-irrigated fields over the growing season. Spatial analysis showed that ETa rates within individual fields of a single crop type that are irrigated with a single method (sprinkler or flood) can vary up to about 8 mm per day. It was estimated that the amount of sprinkler irrigation in 2007 accounted for approximately 3% of the total volume of ETa in the study area. When compared to non-irrigated dryland, sprinkler irrigation increases ETa by about 59 to 82% per unit area.

Montana↗

USGS2016

Implications of projected climate change for groundwater recharge in the western United States

Existing studies on the impacts of climate change on groundwater recharge are either global or basin/location-specific. The global studies lack the specificity to inform decision making, while the local studies do little to clarify potential changes over large regions (major river basins, states, or groups of states), a scale often important in the development of water policy. An analysis of the potential impact of climate change on groundwater recharge across the western United States (west of 100° longitude) is presented synthesizing existing studies and applying current knowledge of recharge processes and amounts. Eight representative aquifers located across the region were evaluated. For each aquifer published recharge budget components were converted into four standard recharge mechanisms: diffuse, focused, irrigation, and mountain-systems recharge. Future changes in individual recharge mechanisms and total recharge were then estimated for each aquifer. Model-based studies of projected climate-change effects on recharge were available and utilized for half of the aquifers. For the remainder, forecasted changes in temperature and precipitation were logically propagated through each recharge mechanism producing qualitative estimates of direction of changes in recharge only (not magnitude). Several key patterns emerge from the analysis. First, the available estimates indicate average declines of 10–20% in total recharge across the southern aquifers, but with a wide range of uncertainty that includes no change. Second, the northern set of aquifers will likely incur little change to slight increases in total recharge. Third, mountain system recharge is expected to decline across much of the region due to decreased snowpack, with that impact lessening with higher elevation and latitude. Factors contributing the greatest uncertainty in the estimates include: (1) limited studies quantitatively coupling climate projections to recharge estimation methods using detailed, process-based numerical models; (2) a generally poor understanding of hydrologic flowpaths and processes in mountain systems; (3) difficulty predicting the response of focused recharge to potential changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events; and (4) unconstrained feedbacks between climate, irrigation practices, and recharge in highly developed aquifer systems.

Journal of Hydrology↗

USGS2015

Predicting alpine headwater stream intermittency: a case study in the northern Rocky Mountains

This investigation used climatic, geological, and environmental data coupled with observational stream intermittency data to predict alpine headwater stream intermittency. Prediction was made using a random forest classification model. Results showed that the most important variables in the prediction model were snowpack persistence, represented by average snow extent from March through July, mean annual mean monthly minimum temperature, and surface geology types. For stream catchments with intermittent headwater streams, snowpack, on average, persisted until early June, whereas for stream catchments with perennial headwater streams, snowpack, on average, persisted until early July. Additionally, on average, stream catchments with intermittent headwater streams were about 0.7 °C warmer than stream catchments with perennial headwater streams. Finally, headwater stream catchments primarily underlain by coarse, permeable sediment are significantly more likely to have intermittent headwater streams than those primarily underlain by impermeable bedrock. Comparison of the predicted streamflow classification with observed stream status indicated a four percent classification error for first-order streams and a 21 percent classification error for all stream orders in the study area.

Ecohydrology & Hydrobiology↗

USGS2011

Regional groundwater-flow model of the Redwall-Muav, Coconino, and alluvial basin aquifer systems of northern and central Arizona

A numerical flow model (MODFLOW) of the groundwater flow system in the primary aquifers in northern Arizona was developed to simulate interactions between the aquifers, perennial streams, and springs for predevelopment and transient conditions during 1910 through 2005. Simulated aquifers include the Redwall-Muav, Coconino, and basin-fill aquifers. Perennial stream reaches and springs that derive base flow from the aquifers were simulated, including the Colorado River, Little Colorado River, Salt River, Verde River, and perennial reaches of tributary streams. Simulated major springs include Blue Spring, Del Rio Springs, Havasu Springs, Verde River headwater springs, several springs that discharge adjacent to major Verde River tributaries, and many springs that discharge to the Colorado River. Estimates of aquifer hydraulic properties and groundwater budgets were developed from published reports and groundwater-flow models. Spatial extents of aquifers and confining units were developed from geologic data, geophysical models, a groundwater-flow model for the Prescott Active Management Area, drill logs, geologic logs, and geophysical logs. Spatial and temporal distributions of natural recharge were developed by using a water-balance model that estimates recharge from direct infiltration. Additional natural recharge from ephemeral channel infiltration was simulated in alluvial basins. Recharge at wastewater treatment facilities and incidental recharge at agricultural fields and golf courses were also simulated. Estimates of predevelopment rates of groundwater discharge to streams, springs, and evapotranspiration by phreatophytes were derived from previous reports and on the basis of streamflow records at gages. Annual estimates of groundwater withdrawals for agriculture, municipal, industrial, and domestic uses were developed from several sources, including reported withdrawals for nonexempt wells, estimated crop requirements for agricultural wells, and estimated per capita water use for exempt wells. Accuracy of the simulated groundwater-flow system was evaluated by using observational control from water levels in wells, estimates of base flow from streamflow records, and estimates of spring discharge. Major results from the simulations include the importance of variations in recharge rates throughout the study area and recharge along ephemeral and losing stream reaches in alluvial basins. Insights about the groundwater-flow systems in individual basins include the hydrologic influence of geologic structures in some areas and that stream-aquifer interactions along the lower part of the Little Colorado River are an effective control on water level distributions throughout the Little Colorado River Plateau basin. Better information on several aspects of the groundwater flow system are needed to reduce uncertainty of the simulated system. Many areas lack documentation of the response of the groundwater system to changes in withdrawals and recharge. Data needed to define groundwater flow between vertically adjacent water-bearing units is lacking in many areas. Distributions of recharge along losing stream reaches are poorly defined. Extents of aquifers and alluvial lithologies are poorly defined in parts of the Big Chino and Verde Valley sub-basins. Aquifer storage properties are poorly defined throughout most of the study area. Little data exist to define the hydrologic importance of geologic structures such as faults and fractures. Discharge of regional groundwater flow to the Verde River is difficult to identify in the Verde Valley sub-basin because of unknown contributions from deep percolation of excess surface water irrigation.

Scientific Investigations Report↗