Geology topics

Kurt D. Fausch

Publications and source records attributed to Kurt D. Fausch.

10 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2019

Predicting persistence of Rio Grande Cutthroat Trout populations in an uncertain future

The Rio Grande Cutthroat Trout Oncorhynchus clarkii virginalis (RGCT ) occupies just 12% of its ancestral range. As the southernmost subspecies of Cutthroat Trout, we expect a warming climate to bring additional stressors to RGCT populations, such as increased stream temperatures, reduced streamflows, and increased incidence of wildfire. We developed a Bayesian network (BN ) model using site‐specific data, empirical research, and expert knowledge to estimate the probability of persistence for each of the 121 remaining RGCT conservation populations and to rank the severity of the threats they face. These inputs quantified the genetic risks (e.g., inbreeding risk and hybridization risk), population demographics (disease risk, habitat suitability, and survival), and probability of stochastic disturbances (stream drying risk and wildfire risk) in an uncertain future. We also created stream temperature and base flow discharge models coupled with regionally downscaled climate projections to predict future abiotic conditions at short‐term (2040s) and long‐term (2080s) time horizons. In the absence of active management, we predicted a decrease in the average probability of population persistence from 0.53 (current) to 0.31 (2040s) and 0.26 (2080s). Only 11% of these populations were predicted to have a greater than 75% chance of persisting to the 2080s. Threat of invasion by nonnative trout had the strongest effect on population persistence. Of the 78 populations that are already invaded or lacking complete barriers, 60% were estimated to be extirpated by 2080 and the remainder averaged only a 10% chance of persistence. In contrast, the effects of increased stream temperatures were predicted to affect the future persistence of only 9% of the 121 RGCT populations remaining, as most have been restricted to high‐elevation habitats that are cold enough to buffer against some stream warming. Our BN model provides a framework for evaluating threats and will be useful to guide management actions that are likely to provide the most benefit for long‐term conservation.

New Mexico, Colorado↗

USGS2019

The natural wood regime in rivers

The natural wood regime forms the third leg of a tripod of physical processes that supports river science and management, along with the natural flow and sediment regimes. The wood regime consists of wood recruitment, transport, and storage in river corridors. Each of these components can be characterized in terms of magnitude, frequency, rate, timing, duration, and mode. We distinguish the natural wood regime, which occurs where human activities do not significantly alter the wood regime, and a target wood regime, in which management emphasizes wood recruitment, transport, and storage that balance desired geomorphic and ecological characteristics with mitigation of wood-related hazards. Wood regimes vary across space and through time but can be inferred and quantified via direct measurements, reference sites, historical information, and numerical modeling. Classifying wood regimes with respect to wood process domains and quantifying the wood budget are valuable tools for assessing and managing rivers.

BioScience↗

USGS2017

Thermal regimes of Rocky Mountain lakes warm with climate change

Anthropogenic climate change is causing a wide range of stresses in aquatic ecosystems, primarily through warming thermal conditions. Lakes, in response to these changes, are experiencing increases in both summer temperatures and ice-free days. We used continuous records of lake surface temperature and air temperature to create statistical models of daily mean lake surface temperature to assess thermal changes in mountain lakes. These models were combined with downscaled climate projections to predict future thermal conditions for 27 high-elevation lakes in the southern Rocky Mountains. The models predict a 0.25°C·decade -1 increase in mean annual lake surface temperature through the 2080s, which is greater than warming rates of streams in this region. Most striking is that on average, ice-free days are predicted to increase by 5.9 days ·decade -1 , and summer mean lake surface temperature is predicted to increase by 0.47°C·decade -1 . Both could profoundly alter the length of the growing season and potentially change the structure and function of mountain lake ecosystems. These results highlight the changes expected of mountain lakes and stress the importance of incorporating climate-related adaptive strategies in the development of resource management plans.

PLoS ONE↗

USGS2017

Groundwater declines are linked to changes in Great Plains stream fish assemblages

Groundwater pumping for agriculture is a major driver causing declines of global freshwater ecosystems, yet the ecological consequences for stream fish assemblages are rarely quantified. We combined retrospective (1950–2010) and prospective (2011–2060) modeling approaches within a multiscale framework to predict change in Great Plains stream fish assemblages associated with groundwater pumping from the United States High Plains Aquifer. We modeled the relationship between the length of stream receiving water from the High Plains Aquifer and the occurrence of fishes characteristic of small and large streams in the western Great Plains at a regional scale and for six subwatersheds nested within the region. Water development at the regional scale was associated with construction of 154 barriers that fragment stream habitats, increased depth to groundwater and loss of 558 km of stream, and transformation of fish assemblage structure from dominance by large-stream to small-stream fishes. Scaling down to subwatersheds revealed consistent transformations in fish assemblage structure among western subwatersheds with increasing depths to groundwater. Although transformations occurred in the absence of barriers, barriers along mainstem rivers isolate depauperate western fish assemblages from relatively intact eastern fish assemblages. Projections to 2060 indicate loss of an additional 286 km of stream across the region, as well as continued replacement of large-stream fishes by small-stream fishes where groundwater pumping has increased depth to groundwater. Our work illustrates the shrinking of streams and homogenization of Great Plains stream fish assemblages related to groundwater pumping, and we predict similar transformations worldwide where local and regional aquifer depletions occur.

Colorado, Kansas, Nebraska↗

USGS2017

Nonnative trout invasions combined with climate change threaten persistence of isolated cutthroat trout populations in the southern Rocky Mountains

Effective conservation of Cutthroat Trout Oncorhynchus clarkii lineages native to the Rocky Mountains will require estimating effects of multiple stressors and directing management toward the most important ones. Recent analyses have focused on the direct and indirect effects of a changing climate on contemporary ranges, which are much reduced from historic ranges owing to past habitat loss and nonnative trout invasions. However, nonnative trout continue to invade Cutthroat Trout populations in the southern Rocky Mountains. Despite management to isolate and protect these native populations, nonnatives still surmount barriers or are illegally stocked above them. We used data on the incidence of invasions by nonnative Brook Trout (BT) Salvelinus fontinalis and the rate of their invasion upstream to simulate effects on a set of 309 conservation populations of Colorado River Cutthroat Trout (CRCT) O. c. pleuriticus isolated in headwater stream fragments. A previously developed Bayesian network model was used to compare direct and indirect effects of climate change (CC) alone on population persistence versus the added effects of BT invasions. Although CC alone is predicted to extirpate only one CRCT population by 2080, BT invasions and CC together are predicted to completely extirpate 122 populations (39% of the total) if managers do not intervene. Another 113 populations (37%) will be at risk of extirpation after CC and invasions, primarily owing to stochastic risks in short stream fragments that are similar under CC alone. Overall, invasions and CC will reduce the number of stream fragments that are long enough to buffer CRCT populations against negative genetic consequences and stochastic disturbances by 48, a decrease of 38% compared to CC alone. High priorities are (1) research to estimate how CC and human factors alter the incidence and rate of BT invasions and (2) management to prevent new illegal introductions, repair inadequate barriers, and monitor and address new invasions.

Arizona, Colorado, Utah, Wyoming↗

USGS2016

Conservation of native Pacific trout diversity in western North America

Pacific trout Oncorhynchus spp. in western North America are strongly valued in ecological, socioeconomic, and cultural views, and have been the subject of substantial research and conservation efforts. Despite this, the understanding of their evolutionary histories, overall diversity, and challenges to their conservation is incomplete. We review the state of knowledge on these important issues, focusing on Pacific trout in the genus Oncorhynchus. Although most research on salmonid fishes emphasizes Pacific salmon, we focus on Pacific trout because they share a common evolutionary history, and many taxa in western North America have not been formally described, particularly in the southern extent of their ranges. Research in recent decades has led to the revision of many hypotheses concerning the origin and diversification of Pacific trout throughout their range. Although there has been significant success at addressing past threats to Pacific trout, contemporary and future threats represented by nonnative species, land and water use activities, and climate change pose challenges and uncertainties. Ultimately, conservation of Pacific trout depends on how well these issues are understood and addressed, and on solutions that allow these species to coexist with a growing scope of human influences.

Fisheries↗

USGS2013

Probabilistic accounting of uncertainty in forecasts of species distributions under climate change

Forecasts of species distributions under future climates are inherently uncertain, but there have been few attempts to describe this uncertainty comprehensively in a probabilistic manner. We developed a Monte Carlo approach that accounts for uncertainty within generalized linear regression models (parameter uncertainty and residual error), uncertainty among competing models (model uncertainty), and uncertainty in future climate conditions (climate uncertainty) to produce site-specific frequency distributions of occurrence probabilities across a species’ range. We illustrated the method by forecasting suitable habitat for bull trout (Salvelinus confluentus) in the Interior Columbia River Basin, USA, under recent and projected 2040s and 2080s climate conditions. The 95% interval of total suitable habitat under recent conditions was estimated at 30.1–42.5 thousand km; this was predicted to decline to 0.5–7.9 thousand km by the 2080s. Projections for the 2080s showed that the great majority of stream segments would be unsuitable with high certainty, regardless of the climate data set or bull trout model employed. The largest contributor to uncertainty in total suitable habitat was climate uncertainty, followed by parameter uncertainty and model uncertainty. Our approach makes it possible to calculate a full distribution of possible outcomes for a species, and permits ready graphical display of uncertainty for individual locations and of total habitat.

Idaho;Montana↗

USGS2013

Fragmentation and thermal risks from climate change interact to affect persistence of native trout in the Colorado River basin

Impending changes in climate will interact with other stressors to threaten aquatic ecosystems and their biota. Native Colorado River cutthroat trout (CRCT; Oncorhynchus clarkii pleuriticus ) are now relegated to 309 isolated high-elevation ( > 1700 m) headwater stream fragments in the Upper Colorado River Basin, owing to past nonnative trout invasions and habitat loss. Predicted changes in climate (i.e., temperature and precipitation) and resulting changes in stochastic physical disturbances (i.e., wildfire, debris flow, and channel drying and freezing) could further threaten the remaining CRCT populations. We developed an empirical model to predict stream temperatures at the fragment scale from downscaled climate projections along with geomorphic and landscape variables. We coupled these spatially explicit predictions of stream temperature with a Bayesian Network (BN) model that integrates stochastic risks from fragmentation to project persistence of CRCT populations across the upper Colorado River basin to 2040 and 2080. Overall, none of the populations are at risk from acute mortality resulting from high temperatures during the warmest summer period. In contrast, only 37% of populations have a greater than or equal to 90% chance of persistence for 70 years (similar to the typical benchmark for conservation), primarily owing to fragmentation. Populations in short stream fragments < 7 km long, and those at the lowest elevations, are at the highest risk of extirpation. Therefore, interactions of stochastic disturbances with fragmentation are projected to be greater threats than warming for CRCT populations. The reason for this paradox is that past nonnative trout invasions and habitat loss have restricted most CRCT populations to high-elevation stream fragments that are buffered from the potential consequences of warming, but at risk of extirpation from stochastic events. The greatest conservation need is for management to increase fragment lengths to forestall these risks.

Upper Colorado River Basin↗

USGS2011

Role of climate and invasive species in structuring trout distributions in the interior Columbia River Basin, USA

Recent and projected climate warming trends have prompted interest in impacts on coldwater fishes. We examined the role of climate (temperature and flow regime) relative to geomorphology and land use in determining the observed distributions of three trout species in the interior Columbia River Basin, USA. We considered two native species, cutthroat trout ( Oncorhynchus clarkii ) and bull trout ( Salvelinus confluentus ), as well as nonnative brook trout ( Salvelinus fontinalis ). We also examined the response of the native species to the presence of brook trout. Analyses were conducted using multilevel logistic regression applied to a geographically broad database of 4165 fish surveys. The results indicated that bull trout distributions were strongly related to climatic factors, and more weakly related to the presence of brook trout and geomorphic variables. Cutthroat trout distributions were weakly related to climate but strongly related to the presence of brook trout. Brook trout distributions were related to both climate and geomorphic variables, including proximity to unconfined valley bottoms. We conclude that brook trout and bull trout are likely to be adversely affected by climate warming, whereas cutthroat trout may be less sensitive. The results illustrate the importance of considering species interactions and flow regime alongside temperature in understanding climate effects on fish.

Columbia River Basin↗

USGS2002

Landscapes to riverscapes: bridging the gap between research and conservation of stream fishes

Rivers and streams, by their very nature long ribbons of aquatic habitat, are inherently difficult to study. Approaching the banks of a flowing-water (lotic) system, one can see only a short fragment of the entire stream, from one bend to another, and can gain little appreciation for important features that lie beyond view. Moreover, materials transported downstream by the flow, and organisms traveling up or down the hydraulic highway, are soon gone from the reach and the opportunity to study them is often lost. Lakes present their own challenges for study, but by contrast to streams, one can usually see large expanses from shore that encompass all major habitats needed for aquatic organisms to complete their life history, such as gravel shoals, beds of aquatic vegetation, and open water habitats

BioScience↗