Geology topics

Kevin W. Brinck

Publications and source records attributed to Kevin W. Brinck.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

USGS2017

Linking occupancy surveys with habitat characteristics to estimate abundance and distribution in an endangered cryptic bird

Accurate estimates of the distribution and abundance of endangered species are crucial to determine their status and plan recovery options, but such estimates are often difficult to obtain for species with low detection probabilities or that occur in inaccessible habitats. The Puaiohi ( Myadestes palmeri ) is a cryptic species endemic to Kauaʻi, Hawai‘i, and restricted to high elevation ravines that are largely inaccessible. To improve current population estimates, we developed an approach to model distribution and abundance of Puaiohi across their range by linking occupancy surveys to habitat characteristics, territory density, and landscape attributes. Occupancy per station ranged from 0.17 to 0.82, and was best predicted by the number and vertical extent of cliffs, cliff slope, stream width, and elevation. To link occupancy estimates with abundance, we used territory mapping data to estimate the average number of territories per survey station (0.44 and 0.66 territories per station in low and high occupancy streams, respectively), and the average number of individuals per territory (1.9). We then modeled Puaiohi occupancy as a function of two remote-sensed measures of habitat (stream sinuosity and elevation) to predict occupancy across its entire range. We combined predicted occupancy with estimates of birds per station to produce a global population estimate of 494 (95% CI 414–580) individuals. Our approach is a model for using multiple independent sources of information to accurately track population trends, and we discuss future directions for modeling abundance of this, and other, rare species.

Biodiversity and Conservation↗

USGS2017

Monitoring Hawaiian biodiversity: Pilot study to assess changes to forest birds and their habitat

Biological diversity, or biodiversity, is the variety and abundance of species in a defined area, and is one of the oldest and most basic descriptions of biological communities. Understanding how populations and communities are structured and change over space and time in response to internal and external forces is a management priority. Effective management practices and conservation strategies depend on our understanding of the relationship between changes in biodiversity and ecological drivers such as invasive species, land use and climate change. To demonstrate how changes in biodiversity may be monitored over a large (400 km2) tract of native forest habitat, we compared bird and plant community composition and structure in an upper montane region of Hawai‘i Island originally surveyed in 1977 as part of the Hawai‘i Forest Bird Survey (Scott et al. 1986) with a comprehensive sample of the same region in 2015. Our findings suggest that across a region spanning an elevation range of 600 to 2,000 m considerable changes occurred in the plant and bird communities between 1977 and 2015. Endemic and indigenous plants species richness (i.e., total number of species) decreased dramatically in the low and middle elevations below an invasive weed front, whereas naturalized plant species richness did not change between the two periods at any elevation. Endemic bird abundance decreased and two species were lost in the lower elevations (< 1,100 m) between 1977 and 2015, while naturalized bird abundance and the numbers of species increased in the same area. In addition to changes in community composition, the structure of the forest showed evidence of changes in dominant and sub-dominant tree canopy cover, shrub and herbaceous cover, dominant tree canopy height, and matted fern cover. Biodiversity monitoring helps to define specific conservation targets and to measure progress towards reaching those targets. It is difficult to ascribe causative factors to a change in biodiversity without directly manipulating the environment. Forest habitat in a variety of settings (i.e., islands and regions with differing land-use histories and elevation ranges), however, can provide opportunities to evaluate the influence of ecological drivers. Declines in native bird biodiversity in low-elevation areas may be attributed to invasive species as land use and climate conditions have remained relatively similar over the 40-year period. Thus, the shift from an endemic-naturalized co-dominated community in 1977 to one dominated by naturalized, alien birds in 2015, and reduction in native bird abundance over that period, may reflect increasing dominance by naturalized plants within this forested area. Inferences drawn from analyses of region-wide surveys, especially with replicate datasets, will facilitate the identification of broad-scale changes in biodiversity, and provide a needed current datum in Hawaiian plant and bird biodiversity monitoring.

Hawaii↗

USGS2016

State-space modeling of population sizes and trends in Nihoa Finch and Millerbird

Both of the 2 passerines endemic to Nihoa Island, Hawai‘i, USA—the Nihoa Millerbird ( Acrocephalus familiaris kingi ) and Nihoa Finch ( Telespiza ultima )—are listed as endangered by federal and state agencies. Their abundances have been estimated by irregularly implemented fixed-width strip-transect sampling from 1967 to 2012, from which area-based extrapolation of the raw counts produced highly variable abundance estimates for both species. To evaluate an alternative survey method and improve abundance estimates, we conducted variable-distance point-transect sampling between 2010 and 2014. We compared our results to those obtained from strip-transect samples. In addition, we applied state-space models to derive improved estimates of population size and trends from the legacy time series of strip-transect counts. Both species were fairly evenly distributed across Nihoa and occurred in all or nearly all available habitat. Population trends for Nihoa Millerbird were inconclusive because of high within-year variance. Trends for Nihoa Finch were positive, particularly since the early 1990s. Distance-based analysis of point-transect counts produced mean estimates of abundance similar to those from strip-transects but was generally more precise. However, both survey methods produced biologically unrealistic variability between years. State-space modeling of the long-term time series of abundances obtained from strip-transect counts effectively reduced uncertainty in both within- and between-year estimates of population size, and allowed short-term changes in abundance trajectories to be smoothed into a long-term trend.

Hawai'i↗

USGS2016

2015-2016 Palila abundance estimates

The palila (Loxioides bailleui) population was surveyed annually during 1998−2016 on Mauna Kea Volcano to determine abundance, population trend, and spatial distribution. In the latest surveys, the 2015 population was estimated at 852−1,406 birds (point estimate: 1,116) and the 2016 population was estimated at 1,494−2,385 (point estimate: 1,934). Similar numbers of palila were detected during the first and subsequent counts within each year during 2012−2016; the proportion of the total annual detections in each count ranged from 46% to 56%; and there was no difference in the detection probability due to count sequence. Furthermore, conducting repeat counts improved the abundance estimates by reducing the width of the confidence intervals between 9% and 32% annually. This suggests that multiple counts do not affect bird or observer behavior and can be continued in the future to improve the precision of abundance estimates. Five palila were detected on supplemental survey stations in the Ka‘ohe restoration area, outside the core survey area but still within Palila Critical Habitat (one in 2015 and four in 2016), suggesting that palila are present in habitat that is recovering from cattle grazing on the southwest slope. The average rate of decline during 1998−2016 was 150 birds per year. Over the 18-year monitoring period, the estimated rate of change equated to a 58% decline in the population.

Technical Report↗

USGS2015

Evaluating abundance and trends in a Hawaiian avian community using state-space analysis

Estimating population abundances and patterns of change over time are important in both ecology and conservation. Trend assessment typically entails fitting a regression to a time series of abundances to estimate population trajectory. However, changes in abundance estimates from year-to-year across time are due to both true variation in population size (process variation) and variation due to imperfect sampling and model fit. State-space models are a relatively new method that can be used to partition the error components and quantify trends based only on process variation. We compare a state-space modelling approach with a more traditional linear regression approach to assess trends in uncorrected raw counts and detection-corrected abundance estimates of forest birds at Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge, Hawai‘i. Most species demonstrated similar trends using either method. In general, evidence for trends using state-space models was less strong than for linear regression, as measured by estimates of precision. However, while the state-space models may sacrifice precision, the expectation is that these estimates provide a better representation of the real world biological processes of interest because they are partitioning process variation (environmental and demographic variation) and observation variation (sampling and model variation). The state-space approach also provides annual estimates of abundance which can be used by managers to set conservation strategies, and can be linked to factors that vary by year, such as climate, to better understand processes that drive population trends.

Hawai'i↗

USGS2015

Current land bird distribution and trends in population abundance between 1982 and 2012 on Rota, Mariana Islands

The western Pacific island of Rota is the fourth largest human-inhabited island in the Mariana archipelago and designated an Endemic Bird Area. Between 1982 and 2012, 12 point-transect distance-sampling surveys were conducted to assess bird population status. Surveys did not consistently sample the entire island; thus, we used a ratio estimator to estimate bird abundances in strata not sampled during every survey. Trends in population size were reliably estimated for 11 of 13 bird species, and 7 species declined over the 30-y time series, including the island collared-dove Streptopelia bitorquata , white-throated ground-dove Gallicolumba xanthonura , Mariana fruit-dove Ptilinopus roseicapilla , collared kingfisher Todiramphus chloris orii , Micronesian myzomela Myzomela rubratra , black drongo Dicrurus macrocercus , and Mariana crow Corvus kubaryi . The endangered Mariana crow (x̄ = 81 birds, 95% CI 30–202) declined sharply to fewer than 200 individuals in 2012, down from 1,491 birds in 1982 (95% CI = 815–3,115). Trends increased for white tern Gygis alba , rufous fantail Rhipidura rufifrons mariae , and Micronesian starling Aplonis opaca . Numbers of the endangered Rota white-eye Zosterops rotensis declined from 1982 to the late 1990s but returned to 1980s levels by 2012, resulting in an overall stable trend. Trends for the yellow bittern Ixobrychus sinensis were inconclusive. Eurasian tree sparrow Passer montanus trends were not assessed; however, their numbers in 1982 and 2012 were similar. Occupancy models of the 2012 survey data revealed general patterns of land cover use and detectability among 12 species that could be reliably modeled. Occupancy was not assessed for the Eurasian tree sparrow because of insufficient detections. Based on the 2012 survey, bird distribution and abundance across Rota revealed three general patterns: 1) range restriction, including Mariana crow, Rota white-eye, and Eurasian tree sparrow; 2) widespread distribution, low abundance, including collared kingfisher, island collared-dove, white-throated ground-dove, Mariana fruit-dove, white tern, yellow bittern, black drongo, and Micronesian myzomela; and 3) widespread distribution, high abundance, including rufous fantail and Micronesian starling. The Mariana crow was dispersed around the periphery of the island in steep forested land-cover types. In contrast, the Rota white-eye was restricted to the high-elevation mesa. Only for the white-throated ground-dove was there a significant difference among cover types, with lower occupancy in open field than in forested areas. Vegetation was included in the best-fit occupancy models for yellow bittern, black drongo, Micronesian myzomela, and Micronesian starling, but vegetation type was not a significant variable nor included in the top models for the remaining five species: white tern, island collared-dove, Mariana fruit-dove, collared kingfisher, and rufous fantail. Given declining population trends, the Rota bird-monitoring program could benefit from establishing threshold and alert limits and identifying alternative research and management actions. Continued monitoring and demographic sampling, in conjunction with ecological studies, are needed to understand why most bird species on Rota are declining, identify the causative agents, and assess effectiveness of conservation actions, especially for the Mariana crow.

Rota↗

USGS2015

Farallon de Medinilla seabird and Tinian moorhen analyses

This report assesses the trends in brown booby (Sula leucogaster), masked booby (S. dactylatra), and red-footed booby (S. sula) counts collected on Farallon de Medinilla and Mariana common moorhen (Gallinula chloropus guami) counts on Tinian, Commonwealth of the Northern Mariana Islands to help elucidate patterns in bird numbers. During either monthly or quarterly surveys between 1997 and 2014 counts of all four bird species were recorded, generating a relatively noisy time series revealing inter-annual variation in index counts by as much as 1,000%. For the purposes of assessing long-term population trends across years we chose a single, species-specific month to assess trends. Doing so reduces the effect of intra-annual variation allowing the analysis to focus on inter-annual variation important to long-term trends assessment. There are clear fluctuations in the counts of all four species. Although the trends were non-significant, there is some evidence that masked and red-footed booby species have declined while brown booby and moorhen have increased.

Hawaii↗

USGS2015

Behavior of the Hawaiian Hawaiian Hoary Bat (Lasiurus cinereus semotus) at wind turbines and its distribution across the North Ko'olau Mountains, O'ahu

We studied the landscape distribution of endemic Hawaiian hoary bats (Lasiurus cinereus semotus ) on the north Ko‘olau Mountains of O‘ahu, Hawai‘i, from May 2013 to May 2014, while simultaneously studying their behavior at wind turbines within the broader landscape. This research aimed to assess the risk that wind turbines pose to bats on the island and integrated a variety of methods, including acoustic monitoring, thermal videography, and fatality searches.Our findings indicate that hoary bats were acoustically cryptic and occurred sparsely in the region. Overall site occupancy rate was 55% during the 1-year period of acoustic monitoring at 23 sites, and there was only an 8% chance of acoustically detecting a bat on a given night if it was present. We detected bats less frequently in windward northern parts of the study area and at windy, lower-elevation sites with rough terrain. Bats were detected more frequently in leeward southern parts of the study area and at wind-sheltered, higher-elevation sites with flat ridgetops. Acoustic detections were consistently low from October through February and increased at most sites to peak in April through August. However, meteorological conditions were not found to be associated with the acoustic prevalence of bats on a night-to-night basis. We observed more than three thousand events involving bats during six months of nightly video surveillance at four wind turbines. Video monitoring revealed several links to weather at the local scale, despite acoustic detections not clearly relating to weather in our broader landscape analysis. Video demonstrated bats occurring near turbines more often on nights with little rain, warmer temperatures, moderate wind speeds, low humidity, and the low but rising barometric pressures indicative of fair weather and improved foraging conditions. Video monitoring also demonstrated that the presence of bats near turbines strongly correlates with insect presence. We detected bats on video rather infrequently, averaging only one to two passes per hour. Most detections were brief (median = 4.0 sec) and involved single bats (97%), with the amount of time during which bats were observed totaling to only 0.10% of the video analyzed (about 3.8 hours of 3,847 total hours). Bats frequently foraged in the airspace near turbines. These results differ from a recent similar study on the mainland (continental North America) and may indicate that Hawaiian hoary bats spend less time closely approaching wind turbines and show less interest in them than their more-migratory mainland conspecifics. We speculate that the Hawaiian hoary bats we observed were locally resident and frequenting high-quality habitat near familiar structures. In contrast, hoary bats observed at wind facilities on the mainland appear to approach and investigate unfamiliar landscape structures that they mistake for trees as they migrate long distances. Consequently, Hawaiian hoary bats may be less susceptible to fatality at wind turbines on a per-encounter basis than hoary bats in North America. Only one bat carcass was found at the four turbines searched daily for six months. The relatively high probability of finding carcasses provided strong assurance that few carcasses were likely missed—there was less than a 10% chance that total fatality at the four turbines monitored for half a year exceeded three bats.

Hawaii↗

USGS2015

Richness, diversity, and similarity of arthropod prey consumed by a community of Hawaiian forest birds.

We evaluated the diet richness, diversity, and similarity of a community of seven endemic and two introduced passerine birds by analyzing the composition of arthropod prey in fecal samples collected during 1994–1998 at Hakalau Forest National Wildlife Refuge, Hawai‘i Island. Most prey fragments were identified to order, but we also distinguished among morpho-species of Lepidoptera based on the shape of larval (caterpillar) mandibles for higher resolution of this important prey type. Diets were compared among feeding specialists, generalists, and “intermediate” species and among introduced and three endangered Hawaiian honeycreeper (Fringillidae) species. Lepidoptera (moths), especially the larval (caterpillar) stage, comprised the greatest proportion of prey in samples of all bird species except for the introduced Japanese white-eye ( Zosterops japonicus ; JAWE). Araneae (spiders) was the most abundant order in JAWE samples and the second most abundant order for most other species. The two specialist honeycreepers ranked lowest in the richness and diversity of arthropod orders, but only the ‘akiapōlā‘au ( Hemignathus munroi , AKIP) was significantly lower than the three generalist or intermediate honeycreeper species. The diversity of arthropod orders was significantly lower for the three endangered honeycreeper species compared to the two introduced species. No significant differences were observed among the five honeycreepers with respect to the arthropod orders they consumed. The use of arthropod orders taken by endangered honeycreepers and introduced species was significantly different in all paired comparisons except for JAWE and ‘ākepa ( Loxops coccineus ; AKEP). In terms of richness and diversity of caterpillar morpho-species in the diet, only the specialist, AKEP, was significantly lower than all three generalist and intermediate species. Both AKEP and AKIP consumed a significantly different diet of caterpillar morpho-species compared to at least one honeycreeper generalist or intermediate species. Among the endangered honeycreepers and introduced species, the richness and diversity of caterpillar morpho-species was significantly lower only for AKEP compared to both introduced species. Significant differences were not observed between endangered and introduced species in the distribution of caterpillar morpho-species in the diet. Only three morpho-species were heavily exploited, with one being consumed by all bird species. The heavy exploitation of very few morpho-species by specialists underscored their greater vulnerability to changes in forest food webs and threats to key arthropod prey. When evaluated together with data on overlap in foraging behavior, our results could be useful in evaluating competition between bird species at Hakalau. Nevertheless, invasive parasitoid wasps may impact key caterpillar prey more substantially than do introduced birds, highlighting the need for additional research to understand the ecology of caterpillar species and their interactions with both invertebrate and vertebrate consumers. The severe decline of specialist bird species historically and recently is a reminder of the importance of maintaining food web resilience, potentially through vigorous habitat restoration, to withstand the continuing and perhaps increasing threats from a diverse array of invasive species and climate change.

Hawaii↗

USGS2014

Long-term monitoring of endangered Laysan ducks: Index validation and population estimates 1998–2012

Monitoring endangered wildlife is essential to assessing management or recovery objectives and learning about population status. We tested assumptions of a population index for endangered Laysan duck (or teal; Anas laysanensis ) monitored using mark–resight methods on Laysan Island, Hawai’i. We marked 723 Laysan ducks between 1998 and 2009 and identified seasonal surveys through 2012 that met accuracy and precision criteria for estimating population abundance. Our results provide a 15-y time series of seasonal population estimates at Laysan Island. We found differences in detection among seasons and how observed counts related to population estimates. The highest counts and the strongest relationship between count and population estimates occurred in autumn (September–November). The best autumn surveys yielded population abundance estimates that ranged from 674 (95% CI = 619–730) in 2003 to 339 (95% CI = 265–413) in 2012. A population decline of 42% was observed between 2010 and 2012 after consecutive storms and Japan’s To¯hoku earthquake-generated tsunami in 2011. Our results show positive correlations between the seasonal maximum counts and population estimates from the same date, and support the use of standardized bimonthly counts of unmarked birds as a valid index to monitor trends among years within a season at Laysan Island.

Hawai’i↗

USGS2014

Status of forest birds on Rota, Mariana Islands

The western Pacific island of Rota is the third largest human inhabited island in the Mariana archipelago, and is designated an Endemic Bird Area. Between 1982 and 2012, 12 point-transect distance sampling surveys were conducted to assess population status. Surveys did not consistently sample the entire island; thus, we used a ratio estimator to estimate bird abundances in strata not sampled during every survey. Occupancy models of the 2012 survey revealed general patterns of habitat use and detectability among 11 species that could be reliably modeled. The endangered Mariana crow ( Corvus kubaryi ) was dispersed around the periphery of the island in steep forested habitats. In contrast, the endangered Rota white-eye ( Zosterops rotensis ) was restricted to the high-elevation mesa. Precision of detection probabilities and occupancy estimates and effects of habitat types, sampling conditions, and specific observers varied considerably among species, indicating that more narrowly defined classifications and additional observer training may improve the accuracy of predictive modeling. Population estimates of five out of ten native bird species, including collared kingfisher ( Todiramphus chloris orii ), Mariana crow, Mariana fruit-dove ( Ptilinopus roseicapilla ), Micronesian myzomela ( Myzomela rubrata ), and white-throated ground-dove ( Gallicolumba xanthonura ) declined over the 30-year time series. The crow declined sharply to fewer than 200 individuals (upper 95% confidence interval). Trends increased for Micronesian starling ( Aplonis opaca ), rufous fantail ( Rhipidura rufifrons mariae ), and white tern ( Gygis alba ). Rota white-eye numbers declined from 1982 to the late 1990s, but returned to 1980s levels by 2012. The trend for the yellow bittern ( Ixobrychus sinensis ) was inconclusive. The alien Eurasian tree sparrow ( Passer montanus ) apparently increased in number despite an unreliable trend assessment. Declines were noted in the other two alien birds, black drongo ( Dicrurus macrocercus ) and island collared-dove ( Streptopelia bitorquata ). Total bird densities on Rota were similar to those on Saipan and Tinian, which were lower than densities on Aguiguan. Overall, bird trends on Rota declined, whereas trends observed for the same period on Saipan and Tinian were mixed, and trends on Aguiguan were stable to increasing. We identified several sampling design and protocol procedures that may improve the precision of occupancy, status, and trend assessments. Continued monitoring and demographic sampling are needed to understand why most bird species on Rota are declining, to identify the causative agents, and to assess effectiveness of conservation actions for rare species, especially the Mariana crow.

Marianas Islands↗

USGS2014

Monitoring Hawaiian waterbirds: evaluation of sampling methods to produce reliable estimates

We conducted field trials to assess several different methods of estimating the abundance of four endangered Hawaiian waterbirds: the Hawaiian duck ( Anas wyvilliana ), Hawaiian coot ( Fulica alai ), Hawaiian common moorhen ( Gallinula chloropus sandvicensis ) and Hawaiian stilt ( Himantopus mexicanus knudseni ). At two sites on Oʽahu, James Campbell National Wildlife Refuge and Hamakua Marsh, we conducted field trials where both solitary and paired observers counted birds and recorded the distance to observed birds. We then compared the results of estimates using the existing simple count, distance estimates from both point- and line-transect surveys, paired observer count estimates, bounded count, and Overton estimators. Comparing covariate recorded values among simultaneous observations revealed inconsistency between observers. We showed that the variation among simple counts means the current direct count survey, even if interpreted as a proportional index of abundance, incorporates many sources of uncertainty that are not taken into account. Analysis revealed violation of model assumptions that allowed us to discount distance-based estimates as a viable estimation technique. Among the remaining methods, point counts by paired observers produced the most precise estimates while meeting model assumptions. We present an example sampling protocol using paired observer counts. Finally, we suggest further research that will improve abundance estimates of Hawaiian waterbirds.

Hawai'i↗

USGS2014

Changes in Mauna Kea Dry Forest Structure 2000-2014

Changes in the structure of the subalpine vegetation of Palila Critical Habitat on the southwestern slope of Mauna Kea Volcano, Hawai‘i, were analyzed using 12 metrics of change in māmane (Sophora chrysophylla) and naio (Myoporum sandwicense) trees surveyed on plots in 2000 and 2014. These two dominant species were analyzed separately, and changes in their structure indicated changes in the forest’s health. There was a significant increase in māmane minimum crown height (indicating a higher ungulate “browse line”), canopy area, canopy volume, percentage of trees with ungulate damage, and percentage of dead trees. No significant changes were observed in māmane maximum crown height, proportion of plots with trees, sapling density, proportion of plots with saplings, or the height distribution of trees. The only significant positive change was for māmane tree density. Significantly negative changes were observed for naio minimum crown height, tree height, canopy area, canopy volume, and percentage of dead trees. No significant changes were observed in naio tree density, proportion of plots with trees, proportion of plots with saplings, or percentage of trees with ungulate damage. Significantly positive changes were observed in naio sapling density and the height distribution of trees. There was also a significant increase in the proportion of māmane vs. naio trees in the survey area. The survey methods did not allow us to distinguish among potential factors driving these changes for metrics other than the percentage of trees with ungulate damage. Continued ungulate browsing and prolonged drought are likely the factors contributing most to the observed changes in vegetation, but tree disease or insect infestation of māmane, or naio, and competition from alien grasses and other weeds could also be causing or exacerbating the impacts to the forest. Although māmane tree density has increased since 2000, this study also demonstrates that efforts by managers to remove sheep (Ovis spp.) from Palila Critical Habitat have not overcome the ability of sheep to continue to damage māmane trees and impede restoration of the vegetation.

Hawaii↗

USGS2014

Palila restoration research, 1996−2012

The Palila Restoration Project was initiated in 1996 by the U.S. Geological Survey to assist government agencies mitigate the effects of realigning Saddle Road (Highway 200) through Palila Critical Habitat (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service 1998, Federal Highway Administration 1999). Ecological research on the palila (Loxioides bailleui), an endangered Hawaiian forest bird, carried out by the U.S. Geological Survey (formerly organized as the Research Division of U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service) since 1987 and research conducted by the Palila Restoration Project provided the scientific bases for developing a recovery strategy (U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service 2006) and its adaptive implementation. The main objectives of the Palila Restoration Project were to develop techniques for reintroducing the palila to a portion of its former range, investigate the biological threats to the palila and its habitat, and synthesize the existing body of ecological knowledge concerning the palila. Five broad study themes formed the research framework: 1. Population reintroduction and restoration 2. Demography and breeding ecology 3. Habitat use and food ecology 4. Vegetation ecology 5. Predator ecology and management An element that was not included in the research program of the project was the ecology and management of introduced ungulates, which has historically constituted the single greatest threat to Palila Critical Habitat (Banko et al. 2009). The absence of ungulate studies should not be interpreted to mean that we believe ungulates no longer damage palila habitat. Other research has already established that removing alien browsers and grazers from Mauna Kea is essential for the recovery of the subalpine forest on which palila now depend (Scowcroft and Giffin 1983; Scowcroft and Sakai 1983; Scowcroft and Conrad 1988, 1992; Hess et al. 1999). Moreover, the Federal District Court of Hawai‘i has ordered the state of Hawai‘i to remove browsing ungulates from Palila Critical Habitat (Banko et al. 2009, Hess and Banko 2011). This final report summarizes results of Palila Restoration Project research from December 1996 to December 2012. Even though some results contained in this report have been published in scientific journals and other technical reports (Appendix I), they are included here to provide a comprehensive chronicle of all project activities.

Hawaii↗

USGS2013

Response of palila and other subalpine Hawaiian forest bird species to prolonged drought and habitat degradation by feral ungulates

Extinction has claimed half of all historically-known Hawaiian passerines, and today many extant species are increasingly threatened due to the combined effects of invasive species and climate change. Habitat disturbance has affected populations of feeding specialists most profoundly, and our results indicate that specialists continue to be most vulnerable, although even some abundant, introduced, generalist species also may be affected. Surveys of passerines during 1998–2011 in subalpine woodland habitat on Mauna Kea Volcano, Island of Hawai′i, revealed that the abundance of the critically endangered palila ( Loxioides bailleui ), a seed specialist, declined by 79% after 2003. The ′akiapōlā′au ( Hemignathus munroi ), an endangered specialist insectivore, was not detected in the survey area after 1998. The Hawai′i ′amakihi ( Hemignathus virens virens ), a generalist feeder and the most abundant species on Mauna Kea, was the only native species to maintain a stable population. The Japanese white-eye ( Zosterops japonicus ), a well-entrenched generalist and one of the three most common introduced species, declined. Drought prevailed in 74% of months during 2000–2011, and dry conditions contributed to the recent decline of the palila by reducing the annual māmane ( Sophora chrysophylla ) seed pod crop, which influences palila breeding and survival. Sustained browsing by introduced ungulates also lowered habitat carrying capacity, and their elimination should reduce the effects of drought and promote forest restoration. Our results illustrate how the feeding ecology of a species can influence its response to interacting environmental perturbations, and they underscore the value of long-term monitoring to detect population trends of sensitive species.

Hawai'i↗

USGS2013

A five-year study of Hawaiian hoary bat ( Lasiurus cinereus semotus ) occupancy on the island of Hawai`i

Using acoustic recordings of the vocalizations of the endangered Hawaiian hoary bat ( Lasiurus cinereus semotus ) collected over a five-year period (2007–2011) from 25 survey areas across the island of Hawai`i, we modeled the relationship between habitat attributes and bat occurrence. Our data support the conclusion that hoary bats concentrate in the coastal lowlands of Hawai`i during the breeding season, May through October, and migrate to interior highlands during the winter non-breeding season. Highest occupancy peaked on the Julian date 15 September across the five-year average and during the season of fledging by the young of the year. Although the Hawaiian hoary bat is a habitat generalist species and occurs from sea level to the highest volcanic peaks on Hawai`i, there was a significant association between occupancy and the prevalence of mature forest cover. Trends in occupancy were stable to slightly increasing during the breeding season over the five years of our surveys.

Hawai'i↗

USGS2013

A landscape-based assessment of climate change vulnerability for all native Hawaiian plants

In Hawaiʽi and elsewhere, research efforts have focused on two main approaches to determine the potential impacts of climate change on individual species: estimating species vulnerabilities and projecting responses of species to expected changes. We integrated these approaches by defining vulnerability as the inability of species to exhibit any of the responses necessary for persistence under climate change (i.e., tolerate projected changes, endure in microrefugia, or migrate to new climate-compatible areas, but excluding evolutionary adaptation). To operationalize this response-based definition of species vulnerability within a landscape-based analysis, we used current and future climate envelopes for each species to define zones across the landscape: the toleration zone; the microrefugia zone; and the migration zone. Using these response zones we calculated a diverse set of factors related to habitat area, quality, and distribution for each species, including the amount of habitat protection and fragmentation and areas projected to be lost to sea-level rise. We then calculated the probabilities of each species exhibiting these responses using a Bayesian network model and determined the overall climate change vulnerability of each species by using a vulnerability index. As a first iteration of a response-based species vulnerability assessment (VA), our landscape-based analysis effectively integrates species-distribution models into a Bayesian network-based VA that can be updated with improved models and data for more refined analyses in the future. Our results show that the species most vulnerable to climate change also tend to be species of conservation concern due to non-climatic threats (e.g., competition and predation from invasive species, land-use change). Also, many of Hawaiʽi’s taxa that are most vulnerable to climate change share characteristics with species that in the past were found to be at risk of extinction due to non-climatic threats (e.g., archipelago endemism, single-island endemism). Of particular concern are the numerous species that have no compatible-climate areas remaining by the year 2100. Species primarily associated with dry forests have higher vulnerability scores than species from any other habitat type. When examined at taxonomic levels above species, low vulnerabilities are concentrated in families and genera of generalists (e.g., ferns or sedges) and typically associated with mid-elevation wet habitats. Our results replicate findings from other regions that link higher species vulnerability with decreasing range size. This species VA is possibly the largest in scope ever conducted in the United States with over 1000 species considered, 319 of which are listed as endangered or threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act, filling a critical knowledge gap for resource managers in the region. The information in this assessment can help prioritize species for special conservation actions, guide the management of conservation areas, inform the selection of research and monitoring priorities, and support adaptive management planning and implementation.

Hawai'i↗

USGS2012

Developing accurate survey methods for estimating population sizes and trends of the critically endangered Nihoa Millerbird and Nihoa Finch.

This report describes the results of a comparative study of bird survey methods undertaken for the purpose of improving assessments of the conservation status for the two endemic passerines on the Island of Nihoa—Nihoa Millerbird (Sylviidae: Acrocephalus familiaris kingi ) and Nihoa Finch (Fringilidae: Telespiza ultima ; also referred herein as millerbird and finch)—both listed as endangered under the Federal Endangered Species Act (ESA) and Hawai`i Revised Statutes 195D. The current survey protocol, implemented since 1967, has produced a highly variable range of counts for both the millerbird and finch, making difficult assessments of population size and trend. This report details the analyses of bird survey data collected in 2010 and 2011 in which three survey methods were compared―strip-transect, line-transect, and point-transect sampling―and provides recommendations for improved survey methods and protocols. Funding for this research was provided through a Science Support Partnership grant sponsored jointly by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (USFWS). Point-transect surveys indicated that millerbirds were more abundant than shown by the striptransect method, and were estimated at 802 birds in 2010 (95%CI = 652 – 964) and 704 birds in 2011 (95%CI = 579 – 837). Point-transect surveys yielded population estimates with improved precision which will permit trends to be detected in shorter time periods and with greater statistical power than is available from strip-transect survey methods. Mean finch population estimates and associated uncertainty were not markedly different among the three survey methods, but the performance of models used to estimate density and population size are expected to improve as the data from additional surveys are incorporated. Using the pointtransect survey, the mean finch population size was estimated at 2,917 birds in 2010 (95%CI = 2,037 – 3,965) and 2,461 birds in 2011 (95%CI = 1,682 – 3,348). Preliminary testing of the line-transect method in 2011 showed that it would not generate sufficient detections to effectively model bird density, and consequently, relatively precise population size estimates. Both species were fairly evenly distributed across Nihoa and appear to occur in all or nearly all available habitat. The time expended and area traversed by observers was similar among survey methods; however, point-transect surveys do not require that observers walk a straight transect line, thereby allowing them to avoid culturally or biologically sensitive areas and minimize the adverse effects of recurrent travel to any particular area. In general, pointtransect surveys detect more birds than strip-survey methods, thereby improving precision and resulting population size and trend estimation. The method is also better suited for the steep and uneven terrain of Nihoa

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