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Geology topics

Kevin M. Foley

Publications and source records attributed to Kevin M. Foley.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2026

Pliocene (Piacenzian) planktic foraminiferal biogeography: Insights into how planktic biogeography is linked to climate and socioeconomic impacts on marine ecosystems

The Piacenzian Age (3.60–2.58 Ma) of the Pliocene Epoch was characterized by globally warmer climates, higher sea levels, and atmospheric CO 2 similar to present. Utilizing a robust dataset of 2,101 samples and over 637,000 foraminifer specimens from 77 deep-sea core sites worldwide, we document planktic foraminifer biogeography and biodiversity during the mid-Piacenzian Warm Period (mPWP). Cluster analysis and multidimensional scaling reveal five major bioregions: tropical, warm subtropical, transitional, polar, and a distinct North Atlantic polar bioregion. Each bioregion was dominated by characteristic species with well-established temperature preferences. Analyses demonstrate higher species richness and evenness in low and mid-latitudes, with increased diversity associated with periods of climatic warming and poleward expansion of warm water assemblages. The long-term stability of biogeographic patterns underscores ecological conservatism but also highlights potential vulnerability to rapid anthropogenic climate change. Our findings emphasize the critical role of planktic foraminifers in reconstructing past ocean conditions and offer valuable insights into links between planktic biogeography, climate, and socioeconomic impacts on marine ecosystems. This work advances our understanding of marine ecosystem responses to climate extremes and provides a foundation for future regional and temporal analyses of planktic foraminifer biogeography under global change scenarios.

Frontiers in Earth Science↗
USGS2026

Early Pliocene (Zanclean) sea surface temperature for PlioMIP3

Paleoclimate researchers have been comparing Pliocene environmental data to paleoclimate model results since the 1980s. The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) began in 2008 with a focus on the Late Pliocene. Here we assess the availability and utility of sea surface temperature (SST) data for verification of Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP3) Early Pliocene (Zanclean) experiments. We analyze published data in terms of quantity and spatial distribution. Only SST estimates derived using alkenone paleo thermometry are reported, and all estimates are based upon the same temperature calibration. Sea surface temperature data are selected from within three distinct time intervals: The early Zanclean 5.3 Ma – 4.2 Ma time slab, and two time slices within the early Zanclean, chosen by PlioMIP3 at 4.870 Ma and 4.474 Ma. Results show the early Zanclean time slab contains 2055 individual estimates. Approximately ∼ 80% of these estimates come from Sites 609, 642, 846, 847, 882, 907, and 1146. There are 17 sites with a total of 42 estimates within the 4.474 Ma ±10 kyr time slice, and 15 sites with a total of 47 data points within the 4.870 Ma ±10 kyr interval. The sparse spatial and temporal distribution of Zanclean data, relative to the data available for the mid Piacenzian, makes point-by-point data model comparison suspect. We suggest interpreting model output against lower resolution long term trends in proxy data, and comparison of models through temperature gradients, may be the most useful application of currently available data. Integrating Zanclean age coastal plain sequences within data model comparison schemes, for increased understanding of regional climate impacts, also holds great potential.

Global and Planetary Change↗
USGS2025

The conundrum of taxonomic uniformitarianism in planktic foraminifera

Planktic foraminiferal species distributions in the modern ocean track environmental features like sea surface temperature (SST). Species shift their distributions as the marine environment changes, providing an analogue for past behaviour. Stationarity of species' ecological tolerances is therefore a first-order assumption of all palaeoenvironmental reconstructions based upon modern analogue methods. In this paper we test the hypothesis that planktic foraminifer species temperature preferences did not change between the Late Pliocene and present, using a dataset which contains faunal abundance data and alkenone palaeotemperature data from the same samples. Our dataset includes 463 samples from 29 localities. Pliocene relative abundances of four taxa ( Globigerina bulloides , Globigerinita glutinata , Neogloboquadrina pachyderma and Neogloboquadrina incompta ) are compared to SST estimates of the same age derived using the alkenone unsaturation ratio ( U K ' 37 ) palaeothermometer. Core-top abundances of the same taxa were compared to pre-industrial SST. Our Pliocene data are generally concordant with previous work. Pliocene SST responses and those of the pre-industrial are similar, supporting the hypothesis that temperature preferences of planktic foraminifera have been relatively stable since the Late Pliocene. This documentation of stationarity of planktic foraminiferal species' temperature tolerances is helpful in identifying situations where environmental variables other than temperature (e.g. salinity or productivity) exhibit a first-order control on faunal diversity. Our results support the notion of taxonomic uniformitarianism and therefore provide additional confidence in using planktic foraminifera to evaluate both regional and global climate change.

Palaeontology↗
USGS2024

Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (PlioMIP3) – Science plan and experimental design

The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP) was initiated in 2008. Over two phases PlioMIP has helped co-ordinate the experimental design and publication strategy of the community, which has included an increasing number of climate models and modelling groups from around the world. It has engaged with palaeoenvironmental scientists to foster new data synthesis supporting the construction of new model boundary conditions, as well as to facilitate new data-model comparisons. The work has advanced our understanding of Pliocene climates and environments, enhanced our knowledge regarding the ability of complex climate and Earth System models to accurately simulate climate change, and helped to refine our estimates of how sensitive the climate system is to forcing conditions. In this community protocol paper, we outline the scientific plan for PlioMIP Phase 3 (PlioMIP3). This plan provides the required guidance to participating modelling groups from around the world to successfully set up and perform PlioMIP3 climate model experiments. The project is open to new participants from the scientific community (both from the climate modelling and geosciences communities). In PlioMIP3, we retain the PlioMIP2 Core experiments ( Eoi 400 , E 280 ) and extend the Core requirements to include either an experiment focussed on the Early Pliocene or an alternative Late Pliocene simulation (or both). These additions (a) allow a comparison of Early and Late Pliocene warm intervals and help build research connections and synergy with the MioMIP (Miocene Model Intercomparison Project - also known as DeepMIP-Miocene) and PlioMioVAR projects (Pliocene-Miocene Variability Working Group), and (b) create an alternative time slice simulation for 3.205 Ma (MIS KM5c) through removal of some of the largest palaeogeographic differences introduced between PlioMIP1 and 2 resulting in minimal land-sea mask variations from the modern. In addition, we present ten optional experiments designed to enhance our assessment of climate sensitivity and to explore the uncertainty in greenhouse gas-related forcing. For the first time, we introduce orbital sensitivity experiments into the science plan, as well as simulations incorporating dynamic vegetation-climate feedbacks and an experiment designed to examine the potential significance of East Antarctic Ice Sheet boundary condition uncertainty. These changes enhance palaeo-to-future scientific connections and enable an exploration of the significance of palaeogeographic uncertainties on climate simulations.

Global and Planeatary Change↗
USGS2023

The relative stability of planktic foraminifer thermal preferences over the past 3 million years

Stationarity of species’ ecological tolerances is a first-order assumption of paleoenvironmental reconstruction based upon analog methods. To test this and other assumptions used in quantitative analysis of foraminiferal faunas for paleoceanographic reconstruction, we analyzed paired alkenone unsaturation ratio ( U 37 K ′ )   "> U K ′ 37 ) 37′) sea surface temperature (SST) estimates and relative abundances of planktic foraminifera within Late Pliocene assemblages. We established Pliocene temperature preferences for nine species in the North Atlantic: Dentoglobigerina altispira, Globorotalia menardii, Globoconella puncticulata, Neogloboquadrina atlantica, Neogloboquadrina incompta, Neogloboquadrina pachyderma, Trilobatus sacculifer, Globigerinita glutinata, and Globigerina bulloides. We compared these to the temperature preferences of the same extant species, and in the three cases where the species are now extinct ( Dentoglobigerina altispira, Neogloboquadrina atlantica, and Globoconella puncticulata ), comparisons were made to either the descendant species or other modern species commonly used as analogs. In general, the taxa tested show similar temperature responses in both Late Pliocene and present-day (core-top) distributions. The data from these comparisons are mostly encouraging, supporting past paleoceanographic conclusions, and are otherwise valuable for testing previous taxonomic grouping decisions that are often necessary for interpreting the paleoenvironment based upon Pliocene foraminiferal assemblages.

Geosciences↗
USGS2023

Early Pliocene (Zanclean) stratigraphic framework for PRISM5/PlioMIP3 time slices

Global reconstructions of Pliocene climate provide important insights into how the climate system operates under elevated temperatures and atmospheric CO2 levels. These reconstructions have been used extensively in paleoclimate modeling experiments for comparison to simulated conditions, and as boundary conditions.Most previous work focused on the Late Pliocene interval known as the mid Piacenzian Warm Period (mPWP), the interval originally identified by the U.S. Geological Survey Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping Project (PRISM) as the PRISM interval or Mid Pliocene Warm Period. The term Mid Pliocene Warm Period is a misnomer due to changes to the geological time scale, and its use should be discontinued. The Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP), now in its third phase, is expanding to include a focus on the Early Pliocene (Zanclean). PlioMIP3 experiments will allow comparison of environmental and climatic conditions before and after closure of the Central American Seaway (CAS). PlioMIP3 used the annual insolation pattern at the top of the atmosphere to determine time slices in the Zanclean that have orbital configurations that are most similar to modern. Two have been selected by PlioMIP and adopted by PRISM for inclusion in future studies: PRISM5.1 (4.474 Ma) and PRISM5.2 (4.870 Ma). Here we establish the stratigraphic framework for these Early Pliocene time slices and furnish information to help locate these intervals in proxy records of paleoenvironmental data using oxygen isotope stratigraphy, paleomagnetic stratigraphy, biostratigraphy, and biochronology (calibrated planktic foraminifer and calcareous nannofossil events).

Stratigraphy↗
USGS2021

The Yorktown Formation: Improved stratigraphy, chronology and paleoclimate interpretations from the U.S. mid-Atlantic Coastal Plain

The Yorktown Formation records paleoclimate conditions along the mid-Atlantic Coastal Plain during the mid-Piacenzian Warm Period (3.264 to 3.025 Ma), a climate interval of the Pliocene in some ways analogous to near future climate projections. To gain insight into potential near future changes, we investigated Yorktown Formation outcrops and cores in southeastern Virginia, refining the stratigraphic framework. We analyzed 485 samples for alkenone-based sea surface temperature (SST) and productivity estimates from the Holland and Dory cores, an outcrop at Morgarts Beach, Virginia, and the lectostratotype of the Yorktown Formation at Rushmere, Virginia, and analyzed planktonic foraminferal assemblage data from the type section. Using the structure of the SST record, we improved the chronology of the Yorktown Formation by establishing the maximum age ranges of the Rushmere (3.3–3.2 Ma) and Morgarts Beach (3.2–3.15 Ma) Members. SST values for these members average ~26 °C, corroborating existing sclerochronological data. Increasing planktonic foraminifer abundance, productivity, and species diversity parallel increasing SST over the MIS M2/M1 transition. These records constitute the greatest temporal concentration of paleoecological estimates within the Yorktown Formation, aiding our understanding of western North Atlantic temperature patterns, seasonality and ocean circulation during this interval. We provide a chronologic framework for future studies analyzing ecological responses to profound climate change.

Virginia↗
USGS2021

Estimating Piacenzian sea surface temperature using an alkenone-calibrated transfer function

Stationarity of environmental preferences is a primary assumption required for any paleoenvironmental reconstruction using fossil materials based upon calibration to modern organisms. Confidence in this assumption decreases the further back in time one goes, and the validity of the assumption that species temperature tolerances have not changed over time has been challenged in Pliocene studies. We use paired U K′ 37 (unsaturated ketones with 37 carbon atoms) sea surface temperature (SST) and faunal assemblage data to directly calibrate North Atlantic Piacenzian planktonic foraminifer assemblages to Piacenzian alkenone paleotemperature estimates to provide an alternative paleoceanographic reconstruction approach that does not rely on stationarity. In doing so, we extend Pliocene SST estimates to sites where only quantitative faunal assemblage data were previously available and improve the spatial resolution of the North Atlantic SST reconstruction.

Scientific Investigations Report↗
USGS2018

PRISM marine sites—The history of PRISM sea surface temperature estimation

For more than three decades, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping (PRISM) Project has compiled paleoenvironmental data with the goal of reconstructing global conditions during the warm interval in the middle of the Piacenzian Age of the Pliocene Epoch (about 3.3 to 3.0 million years ago). Because this is the most recent interval of time in which climatic conditions were similar to those expected in the near future, a global reconstruction of conditions from this interval offers an imperfect yet useful representation of near future conditions. PRISM reconstructions have been used extensively as boundary conditions in general circulation model experiments aimed at better understanding Pliocene climate. They have also served as hindcasting targets when testing the ability of climate models to simulate real climates of the past, an exercise in estimating a model’s ability to accurately predict future climate. As data coverage has grown and model precision has improved, PRISM datasets have become important validation tools for pinpointing discrete areas of data-model disagreement and model-model disagreement. The Pliocene sea surface temperature (SST) dataset is the best developed component of the PRISM reconstructions and is the keystone of Pliocene paleoclimate research. For the first time, we compile all data related to PRISM SST estimation. This discussion chronicles the history of PRISM SST research as it evolved, responding to advances in paleochronology and paleotemperature estimation. Paleoclimatic considerations unique to each location are illustrated, as are any new developments since the initial publication of the data.

Open-File Report↗
USGS2018

Mid-piacenzian of the north Atlantic Ocean

The Piacenzian Age (Pliocene) represents a past climate interval within which frequency and magnitude of environmental changes during a period of past global warmth can be analyzed, climate models can be tested, and results can be placed in a context to better prepare for future change. Here we focus on the North Atlantic region, incorporating new and existing faunal assemblage and alkenone data from Ocean Drilling Program Sites 642, 662, 982, and 999, and International Ocean Discovery Program Sites 1308 and 1313 into our paleoenvironmental reconstruction. Cores and outcrop material containing Piacenzian sediments from the Atlantic Coastal Plain of Virginia, USA, are also included. These data allow us to characterize regional changes in temperature, salinity, upwelling, surface productivity, and diversity, associated with climate transitions, and make nuanced reconstructions of mid-Piacenzian conditions within a high-resolution temporal framework between ~3.40 and ~3.15 Ma, inclusive of Marine Isotope Stages M2 through KM5. We include an initial comparison of estimated sea-surface temperature to coupled climate model simulations, which shows improvement in model adherence to paleoclimate parameters over previous data-model comparisons for the Pliocene.

Stratigraphy↗
USGS2016

The PRISM4 (mid-Piacenzian) paleoenvironmental reconstruction

The mid-Piacenzian is known as a period of relative warmth when compared to the present day. A comprehensive understanding of conditions during the Piacenzian serves as both a conceptual model and a source for boundary conditions as well as means of verification of global climate model experiments. In this paper we present the PRISM4 reconstruction, a paleoenvironmental reconstruction of the mid-Piacenzian ( ∼ 3 Ma) containing data for paleogeography, land and sea ice, sea-surface temperature, vegetation, soils, and lakes. Our retrodicted paleogeography takes into account glacial isostatic adjustments and changes in dynamic topography. Soils and lakes, both significant as land surface features, are introduced to the PRISM reconstruction for the first time. Sea-surface temperature and vegetation reconstructions are unchanged but now have confidence assessments. The PRISM4 reconstruction is being used as boundary condition data for the Pliocene Model Intercomparison Project Phase 2 (PlioMIP2) experiments.

Climate of the Past↗
USGS2016

A simple rubric for Stratigraphic Fidelity (β) of paleoenvironmental time series

The Pliocene, specifically the late Pliocene, has been a focus of paleoclimate research formore than 25 years. Synoptic regional and global reconstructions along with high-resolution time-series have produced nuanced conceptual models of paleoenvironmental conditions and enhanced our understanding of climate variability and climate sensitivity from the Late Pliocene, the most recent interval of global warmth similar to what is projected for the end of the 21st century. These data are used as a source of boundary conditions for climate models as well as ameans of verification of global climate model experiments. In this note, we introduce a measure of stratigraphic fidelity, ß, used to characterize the chronology and achievable resolution of an ever-growing library of Pliocene paleoenvironmental time-series. The ß index serves as an aid to end-users by allowing selection of time-series that meet the stratigraphic requirements of a particular study.

Stratigraphy↗
USGS2015

A global planktic foraminifer census data set for the Pliocene ocean

This article presents data derived by the USGS Pliocene Research, Interpretation and Synoptic Mapping (PRISM) Project. PRISM has generated planktic foraminifer census data from core sites and outcrops around the globe since 1988. These data form the basis of a number of paleoceanographic reconstructions focused on the mid-Piacenzian Warm Period (3.264 to 3.025 million years ago). Data are presented as counts of individuals within 64 taxonomic categories for each locality. We describe sample acquisition and processing, age dating, taxonomy and archival storage of material. These data provide a unique, stratigraphically focused opportunity to assess the effects of global warming on marine plankton.

Scientific Data↗
USGS2013

The PRISM (Pliocene Palaeoclimate) reconstruction: Time for a paradigm shift

Global palaeoclimate reconstructions have been invaluable to our understanding of the causes and effects of climate change, but single-temperature representations of the oceanic mixed layer for data–model comparisons are outdated, and the time for a paradigm shift in marine palaeoclimate reconstruction is overdue. The new paradigm in marine palaeoclimate reconstruction stems the loss of valuable climate information and instead presents a holistic and nuanced interpretation of multi-dimensional oceanographic processes and responses. A wealth of environmental information is hidden within the US Geological Survey's P liocene R esearch, I nterpretation and S ynoptic M apping (PRISM) marine palaeoclimate reconstruction, and we introduce here a plan to incorporate all valuable climate data into the next generation of PRISM products. Beyond the global approach and focus, we plan to incorporate regional climate dynamics with emphasis on processes, integrating multiple environmental proxies wherever available in order to better characterize the mixed layer, and developing a finer time slice within the Mid-Piacenzian Age of the Pliocene, complemented by underused proxies that offer snapshots into environmental conditions. The result will be a proxy-rich, temporally nested, process-oriented approach in a digital format - a relational database with geographic information system capabilities comprising a three-dimensional grid representing the surface layer, with a plethora of data in each cell.

Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A:↗
USGS2013

Coastal-change and glaciological map of the Amery Ice Shelf area, Antarctica: 1961–2004

Reduction in the area and volume of Earth’s two polar ice sheets is intricately linked to changes in global climate and to the resulting rise in sea level. Measurement of changes in area and mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet was given a very high priority in recommendations by the Polar Research Board of the National Research Council. On the basis of these recommendations, the U.S. Geological Survey used its archive of satellite images to document changes in the cryospheric coastline of Antarctica and analyze the glaciological features of the coastal regions. Amery Ice Shelf, lying between 67.5° and 75° East longitude and 68.5° and 73.2° South latitude, is the largest ice shelf in East Antarctica. The latest measurements of the area of the ice shelf range between 62,620 and 71,260 square kilometers. The ice shelf is fed primarily by Lambert, Mellor, and Fisher Glaciers; its thickness ranges from 3,000 meters in the center of the grounding line to less than 300 meters at the ice front. Lambert Glacier is considered to be the largest glacier in the world, and its drainage basin is more than 1 million square kilometers in area. It is possible to see some coastal change on the outlet glaciers along the coast, but most of the noticeable change occurs on the Amery Ice Shelf front.

IMAP↗
USGS2012

Assessing confidence in Pliocene sea surface temperatures to evaluate predictive models

In light of mounting empirical evidence that planetary warming is well underway, the climate research community looks to palaeoclimate research for a ground-truthing measure with which to test the accuracy of future climate simulations. Model experiments that attempt to simulate climates of the past serve to identify both similarities and differences between two climate states and, when compared with simulations run by other models and with geological data, to identify model-specific biases. Uncertainties associated with both the data and the models must be considered in such an exercise. The most recent period of sustained global warmth similar to what is projected for the near future occurred about 3.3–3.0 million years ago, during the Pliocene epoch. Here, we present Pliocene sea surface temperature data, newly characterized in terms of level of confidence, along with initial experimental results from four climate models. We conclude that, in terms of sea surface temperature, models are in good agreement with estimates of Pliocene sea surface temperature in most regions except the North Atlantic. Our analysis indicates that the discrepancy between the Pliocene proxy data and model simulations in the mid-latitudes of the North Atlantic, where models underestimate warming shown by our highest-confidence data, may provide a new perspective and insight into the predictive abilities of these models in simulating a past warm interval in Earth history. This is important because the Pliocene has a number of parallels to present predictions of late twenty-first century climate.

Nature Climate Change↗