Geology topics

Kevin D. Lafferty

Publications and source records attributed to Kevin D. Lafferty.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2026

When is a parasite a problem?

A parasite’s perceived societal impact depends on the disease it causes and the perception of the affected host species. For instance, doctors and veterinarians have a mission to treat parasites that infect humans or that impact host species that have some utilitarian or aesthetic value for society. Marine scientists have different concerns than doctors. Although the number of parasites that marine scientists should be concerned about may vary, only 13% of parasites and 6% of host–parasite links might be considered “problematic” in a kelp forest food web. With regard to the many threats to marine ecosystems, these percentages suggest that most parasites and infectious diseases are inconsequential. A related issue is the common expectation that parasites and the impacts that they cause are increasing under stress as ocean environments across the globe degrade. Yet, reports of disease have not increased due to human impacts on the marine environment, where the factors that influence parasitism are more complex. Thus, the expectation that marine parasites create problems, and that the diseases they cause are getting worse, is more likely the exception than the rule.

Book chapter↗

USGS2025

Sea star wasting disease mystery finally solved

A decade after a marine epidemic killed off sea stars and triggered ecosystem-wide effects along the Pacific Coast of North America, researchers have identified the bacterial pathogen that is responsible for sea star wasting disease.

Nature Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2025

Mapping global coral vulnerability to stony coral tissue loss disease: Implications for biosecurity and conservation

Stony Coral Tissue Loss Disease (SCTLD) has devastated Caribbean coral reefs since 2014, but its potential for global impact remains uncertain. We developed predictive models to assess the worldwide vulnerability of coral reefs to SCTLD under different origin and spread hypotheses. Using random forest regression models incorporating coral taxonomy and zooxanthellae clade associations from 52 taxa, we projected SCTLD susceptibility and mortality patterns globally using six indices: Mean susceptibility per genus per location, Summed susceptibilities across genera per location, Summed susceptibilities across genera per realm, Mean mortality per genus per location, Summed mortalities across genera per location, and Summed mortalities across genera per realm. Models demonstrated strong predictive performance (R² = 0.57 for susceptibility; R² = 0.73 for mortality) and revealed that about 7% of coral genera per location are potentially susceptible to SCTLD. While mean susceptibility and mortality per genus were highest in the Tropical Atlantic, the summed susceptibility and mortality across genera were much higher in the biodiverse Central Indo-Pacific. Natural barriers could limit SCTLD’s spread, including the mid-Atlantic gap and the low diversity of the Tropical Eastern Pacific, supporting the contained disease hypothesis. However, the widespread distribution of susceptible genera across coral reef realms indicates significant vulnerability should SCTLD circumvent these barriers through human-mediated transport, particularly via ballast water or the aquarium trade. If SCTLD is an invasive pathogen originating in the Pacific, as shipping patterns for the aquarium trade suggest, mortality in its native range would likely be lower than our projections. These findings point to targeted intervention strategies, including enhanced monitoring at key locations, assessment of biosecurity needs in high-risk areas, and prioritized conservation efforts in vulnerable high-diversity regions to prevent SCTLD from spreading globally.

Frontiers in Marine Science↗

USGS2025

Multi-species telemetry quantifies current and future efficacy of a remote marine protected area

Large-scale marine protected areas (LSMPAs; > 1000 km 2 ) provide important refuge for large mobile species, but most do not encompass species' ranges. To better understand current and future LSMPA value, we concurrently tracked nine species (seabirds, cetaceans, pelagic fishes, manta rays, reef sharks) at Palmyra Atoll and Kingman Reef (PKMPA) in the U.S. Pacific Islands Heritage Marine National Monument. PKMPA and the U.S. Exclusive Economic Zone encompassed 39% and 54% of species movements ( n = 83; tracking duration range: 0.5–350 days), respectively. Species distribution models indicated 73% of PKMPA contained highly suitable habitat. Under two projected future scenarios (SSP 1–2.6, “Sustainability”; SSP 3–7.0, “Rocky Road”), strong sea surface temperature gradients initially could cause abrupt oceanic change resulting in predicted habitat loss in 2040–2050, followed by an equilibrium response and regained habitat by 2090–2100. Current and future suitable habitats were available adjacent to PKMPA, suggesting that increased MPA size could enhance protection. Our three-tiered approach combining animal tracking with publicly available remote sensing data and future projected environmental scenarios could be used to design, study, and monitor protected areas throughout the world. Holistic approaches that encompass diverse species and habitat use can enhance assessments of protected area designs. Animal telemetry and remote sensing may be helpful for ascertaining the extent to which other MPAs protect large mobile species in the future.

Kingman Reef, Palmyra Atoll, U.S. Pacific Islands ↗

USGS2024

Landscape fragmentation overturns classical metapopulation thinking

Habitat loss and isolation caused by landscape fragmentation represent a growing threat to global biodiversity. Existing theory suggests that the process will lead to a decline in metapopulation viability. However, since most metapopulation models are restricted to simple networks of discrete habitat patches, the effects of real landscape fragmentation, particularly in stochastic environments, are not well understood. To close this major gap in ecological theory, we developed a spatially explicit, individual-based model applicable to realistic landscape structures, bridging metapopulation ecology and landscape ecology. This model reproduced classical metapopulation dynamics under conventional model assumptions, but on fragmented landscapes, it uncovered general dynamics that are in stark contradiction to the prevailing views in the ecological and conservation literature. Notably, fragmentation can give rise to a series of dualities: a) positive and negative responses to environmental noise, b) relative slowdown and acceleration in density decline, and c) synchronization and desynchronization of local population dynamics. Furthermore, counter to common intuition, species that interact locally (“residents”) were often more resilient to fragmentation than long-ranging “migrants.” This set of findings signals a need to fundamentally reconsider our approach to ecosystem management in a noisy and fragmented world.

PNAS↗

USGS2024

Temperature impacts on dengue incidence are nonlinear and mediated by climatic and socioeconomic factors: A meta-analysis

Temperature can influence mosquito-borne diseases like dengue. These effects are expected to vary geographically and over time in both magnitude and direction and may interact with other environmental variables, making it difficult to anticipate changes in response to climate change. Here, we investigate global variation in temperature–dengue relationship by analyzing published correlations between temperature and dengue and matching them with remotely sensed climatic and socioeconomic data. We found that the correlation between temperature and dengue was most positive at intermediate (near 24°C) temperatures, as predicted from an independent mechanistic model. Positive temperature–dengue associations were strongest when temperature variation and population density were high and decreased with infection burden and rainfall mean and variation, suggesting alternative limiting factors on transmission. Our results show that while climate effects on diseases are context-dependent they are also predictable from the thermal biology of transmission and its environmental and social mediators.

PLOS Climate↗

USGS2024

Metabarcoding is (usually) more cost effective than seining or qPCR for detecting tidewater gobies and other estuarine fishes

Many studies have shown that environmental DNA (eDNA) sampling can be more sensitive than traditional sampling. For instance, past studies found a specific qPCR probe of a water sample is better than a seine for detecting the endangered northern tidewater goby, Eucyclogobius newberryi . Furthermore, a metabarcoding sample often detects more fish species than a seine detects. Less consideration has been given to sampling costs. To help managers choose the best sampling method for their budget, I estimated detectability and costs per sample to compare the cost effectiveness of seining, qPCR and metabarcoding for detecting endangered tidewater gobies as well as the associated estuarine fish community in California. Five samples were enough for eDNA methods to confidently detect tidewater gobies, whereas seining took twice as many samples. Fixed program costs can be high for qPCR and seining, whereas metabarcoding had high per-sample costs, which led to changes in relative cost-effectiveness with the number of locations sampled. Under some circumstances (multiple locations visited or an already validated assay), qPCR was a bit more cost effective than metabarcoding for detecting tidewater gobies. Under all assumptions, seining was the least cost-effective method for detecting tidewater gobies or other fishes. Metabarcoding was the most cost-effective sampling method for multiple species detection. Despite its advantages, metabarcoding has gaps in sequence databases, can yield vague results for some species, and can lead novices to serious errors. Seining remains the only way to rapidly assess densities, size distributions, and fine-scale spatial distributions.

PeerJ↗

USGS2024

The chytrid insurance hypothesis: Integrating parasitic chytrids into a biodiversity–ecosystem functioning framework for phytoplankton–zooplankton population dynamics

In temperate lakes, eutrophication and warm temperatures can promote cyanobacteria blooms that reduce water quality and impair food-chain support. Although parasitic chytrids of phytoplankton might compete with zooplankton, they also indirectly support zooplankton populations through the “mycoloop”, which helps move energy and essential dietary molecules from inedible phytoplankton to zooplankton. Here, we consider how the mycoloop might fit into the biodiversity–ecosystem functioning (BEF) framework. BEF considers how more diverse communities can benefit ecosystem functions like zooplankton production. Chytrids are themselves part of pelagic food webs and they directly contribute to zooplankton diets through spore production and by increasing host edibility. The additional way that chytrids might support BEF is if they engage in “kill-the-winner” dynamics. In contrast to grazers, which result in “eat-the-edible” dynamics, kill-the-winner dynamics can occur for host-specific infectious diseases that control the abundance of dominant (in this case inedible) hosts and thus limit the competitive exclusion of poorer (in this case edible) competitors. Thus, if phytoplankton diversity provides functions, and chytrids support algal diversity, chytrids could indirectly favour edible phytoplankton. All three mechanisms are linked to diversity and therefore provide some “insurance” for zooplankton production against the impacts of eutrophication and warming. In our perspective piece, we explore evidence for the chytrid insurance hypothesis , identify exceptions and knowledge gaps, and outline future research directions.

Oecologia↗

USGS2024

Parasites alter food-web topology of a subarctic lake food web and its pelagic and benthic compartments

We compared three sets of highly resolved food webs with and without parasites for a subarctic lake system corresponding to its pelagic and benthic compartments and the whole-lake food web. Key topological food-web metrics were calculated for each set of compartments to explore the role parasites play in food-web topology in these highly contrasting webs. After controlling for effects from differences in web size, we observed similar responses to the addition of parasites in both the pelagic and benthic compartments demonstrated by increases in trophic levels, linkage density, connectance, generality, and vulnerability despite the contrasting composition of free-living and parasitic species between the two compartments. Similar effects on food-web topology can be expected with the inclusion of parasites, regardless of the physical characteristics and taxonomic community compositions of contrasting environments. Additionally, similar increases in key topological metrics were found in the whole-lake food web that combines the pelagic and benthic webs, effects that are comparable to parasite food-web analyses from other systems. These changes in topological metrics are a result of the unique properties of parasites as infectious agents and the links they participate in. Trematodes were key contributors to these results, as these parasites have distinct characteristics in aquatic systems that introduce new link types and increase the food web’s generality and vulnerability disproportionate to other parasites. Our analysis highlights the importance of incorporating parasites, especially trophically transmitted parasites, into food webs as they significantly alter key topological metrics and are thus essential for understanding an ecosystem’s structure and functioning.

Oecologia↗

USGS2024

Stony coral tissue loss disease indirectly alters reef communities

Many Caribbean coral reefs are near collapse due to various threats. An emerging threat, stony coral tissue loss disease (SCTLD), is spreading across the Western Atlantic and Caribbean. Data from the U.S. Virgin Islands reveal how SCTLD spread has reduced the abundance of susceptible coral and crustose coralline algae and increased cyanobacteria, fire coral, and macroalgae. A Caribbean-wide structural equation model demonstrates versatility in reef fish and associations with rugosity independent of live coral. Model projections suggest that some reef fishes will decline due to SCTLD, with the largest changes on reefs that lose the most susceptible corals and rugosity. Mapping these projected declines in space indicates how the indirect effects of SCTLD range from undetectable to devastating.

Virgin Islands↗

USGS2022

Future directions to manage wildlife health in a changing climate

In September 2019 The Economist wrote an obituary to Okjökull, a glacier in western Iceland that was declared “dead” in 2014, a victim of climate change. Although a few wildlife species have already incurred such a fate (e.g., the Bramble Cay melomys [ Melomys rubicola ]) (Fulton 2017), many more are on the path to climate-driven extinction (Andermann et al. 2020; Ceballos et al. 2015; He et al. 2019; Roman-Palacios and Wiens 2020; Sanchez-Bayo and Wyckhuys 2019; WWF 2020).

EcoHealth↗

USGS2022

Predator–prey interactions of terrestrial invertebrates are determined by predator body size and species identity

Predator–prey interactions shape ecosystems and can help maintain biodiversity. However, for many of the earth's most biodiverse and abundant organisms, including terrestrial arthropods, these interactions are difficult or impossible to observe directly with traditional approaches. Based on previous theory, it is likely that predator–prey interactions for these organisms are shaped by a combination of predator traits, including body size and species-specific hunting strategies. In this study, we combined diet DNA metabarcoding data of 173 individual invertebrate predators from nine species (a total of 305 individual predator–prey interactions) with an extensive community body size data set of a well-described invertebrate community to explore how predator traits and identity shape interactions. We found that (1) mean size of prey families in the field usually scaled with predator size, with species-specific variation to a general size-scaling relationship (exceptions likely indicating scavenging or feeding on smaller life stages). We also found that (2) although predator hunting traits, including web and venom use, are thought to shape predator–prey interaction outcomes, predator identity more strongly influenced our indirect measure of the relative size of predators and prey (predator:prey size ratios) than either of these hunting traits. Our findings indicate that predator body size and species identity are important in shaping trophic interactions in invertebrate food webs and could help predict how anthropogenic biodiversity change will influence terrestrial invertebrates, the earth's most diverse animal taxonomic group.

Ecology↗

USGS2022

Parasites in kelp-forest food webs increase food-chain length, complexity, and specialization, but reduce connectance

We explored whether parasites are important in kelp forests by examining their effects on a high-quality, high-resolution kelp-forest food web. After controlling for generic effects of network size, parasites affected kelp-forest food web structure in some ways consistent with other systems. Parasites increased the trophic span of the web, increasing top predator vulnerability and the longest chain length. Unique links associated with parasites, such as concomitant predation (consumption of parasites along with their hosts by predators) increased the frequency of network motifs involving mutual consumption and decreased niche contiguity of free-living species. However, parasites also affected kelp-forest food web structure in ways not seen in other systems. Kelp-forest parasites are richer and more specialized than other systems. As a result, parasites reduced diet generality and decreased connectance in the kelp forest. Although mutual consumption motifs increased in frequency, this motif type was still a small fraction of all possible motifs, so their increase in frequency was not enough to compensate for the decrease in connectance caused by adding many specialist parasite species.

California↗

USGS2022

Transforming Palmyra Atoll to native-tree dominance will increase net carbon storage and reduce dissolved organic carbon reef runoff

Native forests on tropical islands have been displaced by non-native species, leading to calls for their transformation. Simultaneously, there is increasing recognition that tropical forests can help sequester carbon that would otherwise enter the atmosphere. However, it is unclear if native forests sequester more or less carbon than human-altered landscapes. At Palmyra Atoll, efforts are underway to transform the rainforest composition from coconut palm ( Cocos nucifera ) dominated to native mixed-species. To better understand how this landscape-level change will alter the atoll’s carbon dynamics, we used field sampling, remote sensing, and parameter estimates from the literature to model the total carbon accumulation potential of Palmyra’s forest before and after transformation. The model predicted that replacing the C . nucifera plantation with native species would reduce aboveground biomass from 692.6 to 433.3 Mg C. However, expansion of the native Pisonia grandis and Heliotropium foertherianum forest community projected an increase in soil carbon to at least 13,590.8 Mg C, thereby increasing the atoll’s overall terrestrial carbon storage potential by 11.6%. Nearshore sites adjacent to C . nucifera canopy had a higher dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentration (110.0 μMC) than sites adjacent to native forest (81.5 μMC), suggesting that, in conjunction with an increase in terrestrial carbon storage, replacing C . nucifera with native forest will reduce the DOC exported from the forest into in nearshore marine habitats. Lower DOC levels have potential benefits for corals and coral dependent communities. For tropical islands like Palmyra, reverting from C . nucifera dominance to native tree dominance could buffer projected climate change impacts by increasing carbon storage and reducing coral disease.

PLoS ONE↗

USGS2022

Complex life-cycles in trophically transmitted helminths: Do the benefits of increased growth and transmission outweigh generalism and complexity costs?

Why do so many parasitic worms have complex life-cycles? A complex life-cycle has at least two hypothesized costs: (i) worms with longer life-cycles, i.e. more successive hosts, must be generalists at the species level, which might reduce lifetime survival or growth, and (ii) each required host transition adds to the risk that a worm will fail to complete its life-cycle. Comparing hundreds of trophically transmitted acanthocephalan , cestode , and nematode species with different life-cycles suggests these costs are weaker than expected. Helminths with longer cycles exhibit higher species-level generalism without impaired lifetime growth. Further, risk in complex life-cycles is mitigated by increasing establishment rates in each successive host. Two benefits of longer cycles are transmission and production. Longer cycles normally include smaller (and thus more abundant) first hosts that are likely to consume parasite propagules, as well as bigger (and longer-lived) definitive hosts, in which adult worms grow to larger and presumably more fecund reproductive sizes. Additional factors, like host immunity or dispersal, may also play a role, but are harder to address. Given the ubiquity of complex life-cycles, the benefits of incorporating or retaining hosts in a cycle must often exceed the costs.

Current Research in Parasitology & Vector-borne Di↗

USGS2022

Evaluation of MPA designs that protect highly mobile megafauna now and under climate change scenarios

Marine protected area (MPA) designs, including large-scale MPAs (LSMPAs; >150,000 km 2 ), mobile MPAs (fluid spatiotemporal boundaries), and MPA networks, may offer different benefits to species and could enhance protection by encompassing spatiotemporal scales of animal movement. We sought to understand how well LSMPAs could benefit nine highly-mobile marine species in the tropics now and into the future by: 1) evaluating current range overlap within a LSMPA; 2) evaluating range overlap under climate change projections; and 3) evaluating how well theoretical MPA designs benefit these nine species. We focused on Palmyra Atoll and Kingman Reef, a 2000 km 2 area within the 1.2 million km 2 U.S. Pacific Remote Islands Marine National Monument (PRIMNM) that contains marine megafauna (reef and pelagic fishes; sea turtles; seabirds; cetaceans) reflecting different behaviors and habitat use. Our approach is useful for evaluating the effectiveness of the Palmyra-Kingman MPA and PRIMNM in protecting these species, and tropical LSMPAs in general, and for informing future MPA design. Stationary MPAs provided protection at varying scales. Reef manta rays ( Mobula alfredi ), grey reef sharks ( Carcharhinus amblyrhynchos ), green sea turtles ( Chelonia mydas ), and bottlenose dolphins ( Tursiops truncatus ) had overall small ranges (<100 km from Palmyra-Kingman) and could benefit from stationary MPAs that contained heterogenous reef habitats. Yellowfin tuna ( Thunnus albacares ), sooty terns ( Onychoprion fuscatus ), red-footed boobies ( Sula sula ), great frigatebirds ( Fregata minor ), and melon-headed whales ( Peponocephala electra ) navigated complex oceanographic processes and may benefit most from mobile MPAs that shift with features including thermal fronts, cyclic regions of elevated productivity, and eddies, if relationships with these features are established and predictable. All species had capacity to travel to nearby reef systems, illustrating potential benefits of MPA networks and protected corridors. Suitable habitats will likely contract for all species as warm water expands under climate change scenarios (species habitats were predicted to decrease by 4–49% at Palmyra-Kingman) and MPAs may not protect suitable habitats into the future. Species habitat requirements and movement ecologies are critical aspects of marine spatial planning, especially with respect to dynamic ocean processes and a changing climate.

Hawai'i↗

USGS2022

Evidence gaps and diversity among potential win–win solutions for conservation and human infectious disease control

As sustainable development practitioners have worked to “ensure healthy lives and promote well-being for all” and “conserve life on land and below water”, what progress has been made with win–win interventions that reduce human infectious disease burdens while advancing conservation goals? Using a systematic literature review, we identified 46 proposed solutions, which we then investigated individually using targeted literature reviews. The proposed solutions addressed diverse conservation threats and human infectious diseases, and thus, the proposed interventions varied in scale, costs, and impacts. Some potential solutions had medium-quality to high-quality evidence for previous success in achieving proposed impacts in one or both sectors. However, there were notable evidence gaps within and among solutions, highlighting opportunities for further research and adaptive implementation. Stakeholders seeking win–win interventions can explore this Review and an online database to find and tailor a relevant solution or brainstorm new solutions.

The Lancet Planetary Health↗

USGS2022

Ecological and socioeconomic factors associated with the human burden of environmentally mediated pathogens: A global analysis

Background Billions of people living in poverty are at risk of environmentally mediated infectious diseases—that is, pathogens with environmental reservoirs that affect disease persistence and control and where environmental control of pathogens can reduce human risk. The complex ecology of these diseases creates a global health problem not easily solved with medical treatment alone. Methods We quantified the current global disease burden caused by environmentally mediated infectious diseases and used a structural equation model to explore environmental and socioeconomic factors associated with the human burden of environmentally mediated pathogens across all countries. Findings We found that around 80% (455 of 560) of WHO-tracked pathogen species known to infect humans are environmentally mediated, causing about 40% (129 488 of 359 341 disability-adjusted life years) of contemporary infectious disease burden (global loss of 130 million years of healthy life annually). The majority of this environmentally mediated disease burden occurs in tropical countries, and the poorest countries carry the highest burdens across all latitudes. We found weak associations between disease burden and biodiversity or agricultural land use at the global scale. In contrast, the proportion of people with rural poor livelihoods in a country was a strong proximate indicator of environmentally mediated infectious disease burden. Political stability and wealth were associated with improved sanitation, better health care, and lower proportions of rural poverty, indirectly resulting in lower burdens of environmentally mediated infections. Rarely, environmentally mediated pathogens can evolve into global pandemics (eg, HIV, COVID-19) affecting even the wealthiest communities. Interpretation The high and uneven burden of environmentally mediated infections highlights the need for innovative social and ecological interventions to complement biomedical advances in the pursuit of global health and sustainability goals. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, National Institutes of Health, National Science Foundation, Alfred P. Sloan Foundation, National Institute for Mathematical and Biological Synthesis, Stanford University, and the US Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency.

The Lancet Planetary Health↗