Geology topics

Kevin Aagaard

Publications and source records attributed to Kevin Aagaard.

7 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2022

Effects of weather variation on waterfowl migration: Lessons from a continental-scale generalizable avian movement and energetics model

We developed a continental energetics-based model of daily mallard ( Anas platyrhynchos ) movement during the non-breeding period (September to May) to predict year-specific migration and overwinter occurrence. The model approximates movements and stopovers as functions of metabolism and weather, in terms of temperature and frozen precipitation (i.e., snow). The model is a Markov process operating at the population level and is parameterized through a review of literature. We applied the model to 62 years of daily weather data for the non-breeding period. The average proportion of available habitat decreased as weather severity increased, with mortality decreasing as the proportion of available habitat increased. The most commonly used locations during the course of the non-breeding period were generally consistent across years, with the most inter-annual variation present in the overwintering area. Our model revealed that the distribution of mallards on the landscape changed more dramatically when the variation in daily available habitat was greater. The main routes for avian migration in North America were predicted by our simulations: the Atlantic, Mississippi, Central, and Pacific flyways. Our model predicted an average of 77.4% survivorship for the non-breeding period across all years (range = 76.4%–78.4%), with lowest survivorship during autumn (90.5 ± 1.4%), intermediate survivorship in winter (91.8 ± 0.7%), and greatest survivorship in spring (93.6 ± 1.1%). We provide the parameters necessary for exploration within and among other taxa to leverage the generalizability of this migration model to a broader expanse of bird species, and across a range of climate change and land use/land cover change scenarios.

Ecology and Evolution↗

USGS2018

Accounting for surveyor effort in large-scale monitoring programs

Accounting for errors in wildlife surveys is necessary for reliable status assessments and quantification of uncertainty in estimates of population size. We apply a hierarchical log-linear Poisson regression model that accounts for multiple sources of variability in count data collected for the Integrated Waterbird Management and Monitoring Program during 2010–2014. In some large-scale monitoring programs (e.g., Christmas Bird Count) there are diminishing returns in numbers counted as survey effort increases; therefore, we also explore the need to account for variable survey duration as a proxy for effort. In general, we found a high degree of concordance between counts and effort-adjusted estimates of relative abundance from the Integrated Waterbird Management and Monitoring Program ( x̄ difference = 0.02%; 0.25% SD). We suggest that the model-based adjustments were small because there is only a weak asymptotic relationship with effort and count. Whereas effort adjustments are reasonable and effective when applied to count data from plots of standardized area, such adjustments may not be necessary when the area of sample units is not standardized and surveyor effort increases with number of birds present. That is, large units require more effort only when there are many birds present. The general framework we implemented to evaluate effects of varying survey effort applies to a wide variety of wildlife monitoring efforts.

Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management↗

USGS2018

Modeling the relationship between water level, wild rice abundance, and waterfowl abundance at a central North American wetland

Recent evidence suggests wild rice ( Zizania palustris ), an important resource for migrating waterfowl, is declining in parts of central North America, providing motivation to rigorously quantify the relationship between waterfowl and wild rice. A hierarchical mixed-effects model was applied to data on waterfowl abundance for 16 species, wild rice stem density, and two measures of water depth (true water depth at vegetation sampling locations and water surface elevation). Results provide evidence for an effect of true water depth (TWD) on wild rice abundance (posterior mean estimate for TWD coefficient, β TWD = 0.92, 95% confidence interval = 0.11—1.74), but not for an effect of wild rice stem density or water surface elevation on local waterfowl abundance (posterior mean values for relevant parameters overlapped 0). Refined protocols for sampling design and more consistent sampling frequency to increase data quality should be pursued to overcome issues that may have obfuscated relationships evaluated here.

Wetlands↗

USGS2018

Temperature-influenced energetics model for migrating waterfowl

Climate and weather affect avian migration by influencing when and where birds fly, the energy costs and risks of flight, and the ability to sense cues necessary for proper navigation. We review the literature of the physiology of avian migration and the influence of climate, specifically temperature, on avian migration dynamics. We use waterfowl as a model guild because of the ready availability of empirical physiological data and their enormous economic value, but our discussion and expectations are broadly generalizable to migratory birds in general. We detail potential consequences of an increasingly warm climate on avian migration, including the possibility of the cessation of migration by some populations and species. Our intent is to lay the groundwork for including temperature effects on energetic gains and losses of migratory birds with the expected consequences of increasing temperatures into a predictive modeling framework. To this end, we provide a simulation of migration progression exclusively focused on the influence of temperature on the physiological determinants of migration. This simulation produced comparable results to empirically derived and observed values for different migratory factors (e.g., body fat content, flight range, departure date). By merging knowledge from the arenas of avian physiology and migratory theory we have identified a clear need for research and have developed hypotheses for a path forward.

Ecological Modelling↗

USGS2017

EROD activity, chromosomal damage, and oxidative stress in response to contaminants exposure in tree swallow (Tachycineta bicolor) nestlings from Great Lakes Areas of Concern

Tree swallow, Tachycineta bicolor, nestlings were collected from 60 sites in the Great Lakes, which included multiple sites within 27 Areas of Concern (AOCs) and six sites not listed as AOCs from 2010 to 2014. Nestlings, approximately 12 days-of-age, were evaluated for ethoxyresorufin-O-dealkylase (EROD) activity, chromosomal damage, and six measures of oxidative stress. Data on each of these biomarkers were divided into four equal numbered groups from the highest to lowest values and the groups were compared to contaminant concentrations using multivariate analysis. Contaminant concentrations, from the same nestlings, included polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), polybrominated diphenyl ethers (PBDEs), perfluorinated compounds (PFCs), and 17 elements. Alkylated polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (aPAHs) and parent PAHs (pPAHs) were measured in pooled nestling dietary samples. Polychlorinated dibenzo-p-dioxins, polychlorinated dibenzofurans, and pesticides were measured in sibling eggs. Concentrations of aPAHs, pPAHs, chlordane, dieldrin, heptachlor, and PCBs, in that order, were the major contributors to the significant differences between the lowest and highest EROD activities; PFCs, PBDEs, the remaining pesticides, and all elements were of secondary importance. The four categories of chromosomal damage did not separate out well based on the contaminants measured. Concentrations of aPAHs, pPAHs, heptachlor, PCBs, chlordane, and dieldrin were the major contributors to the significant differences between the lowest and highest activities of two oxidative stress measures, total sulfhydryl (TSH) activity and protein bound sulfhydryl (PBSH) activity. The four categories of thiobarbituric acid reacting substances (TBARS), oxidized glutathione (GSSG), reduced glutathione (GSH), and the ratio of GSSG/GSH did not separate well based on the contaminants measured.

Ecotoxicology↗

USGS2017

Quantifying the relative contribution of an ecological reserve to conservation objectives

Evaluating the role public lands play in meeting conservation goals is an essential step in good governance. We present a tool for comparing the regional contribution of each of a suite of wildlife management units to conservation goals. We use weighted summation ( simple additive weighting ) to compute a Unit Contribution Index ( UCI ) based on species richness, population abundance, and a conservation score based on IUCN Red List classified threat levels. We evaluate UCI for a subset of the 729 participating wetlands of the Integrated Waterbird Management and Monitoring (IWMM) Program across U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service Regions 3 (Midwest USA), 4 (Southeast USA), and 5 (Northeast USA). We found that the median across-Region UCI for Region 5 was greater than Regions 3 and 4, while Region 4 had the greatest within-Region UCI median. This index is a powerful tool for wildlife managers to evaluate the performance of units within the conservation estate.

Global Ecology and Conservation↗

USGS2015

Evaluating predictors of local dabbling duck abundance during migration: Managing the spectrum of conditions faced by migrants

The development of robust modelling techniques to derive inferences from large-scale migratory bird monitoring data at appropriate scales has direct relevance to their management. The Integrated Waterbird Management and Monitoring programme (IWMM) represents one of the few attempts to monitor migrating waterbirds across entire flyways using targeted local surveys. This dataset included 13,208,785 waterfowl (eight Anas species) counted during 28,000 surveys at nearly 1,000 locations across the eastern United States between autumn 2010 and spring 2013 and was used to evaluate potential predictors of waterfowl abundance at the wetland scale. Mixed-effects, log-linear models of local abundance were built for the Atlantic and Mississippi flyways during spring and autumn migration to identify factors relating to habitat structure, forage availability, and migration timing that influence target dabbling duck species abundance. Results indicated that migrating dabbling ducks responded differently to environmental factors. While the factors identified demonstrated a high degree of importance, they were inconsistent across species, flyways and seasons. Furthermore, the direction and magnitude of the importance of each covariate group considered here varied across species. Given our results, actionable policy recommendations are likely to be most effective if they consider species-level variation within targeted taxonomic units and across management areas. The methods implemented here can easily be applied to other contexts, and serve as a novel investigation into local-level population patterns using data from broad-scale monitoring programmes.

Wildfowl↗