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USGS2022

Changes in waterfowl migration phenologies in central North America: Implications for future waterfowl conservation

Globally, migration phenologies of numerous avian species have shifted over the past half-century. Despite North American waterfowl being well researched, published data on shifts in waterfowl migration phenologies remain scarce. Understanding shifts in waterfowl migration phenologies along with potential drivers is critical for guiding future conservation efforts. Therefore, we utilized historical (1955–2008) nonbreeding waterfowl survey data collected at 21 National Wildlife Refuges in the mid- to lower portion of the Central Flyway to summarize changes in spring and autumn migration phenology. We examined changes in the timing of peak abundance from survey data at monthly intervals for each refuge and species (or species group; n = 22) by year and site-specific temperature for spring (Jan–Mar) and autumn (Oct–Dec) migration periods. For spring ( n = 187) and autumn ( n = 194) data sets, 13% and 9% exhibited statistically significant changes in the timing of peak migration across years, respectively, while the corresponding numbers for increasing temperatures were 4% and 9%. During spring migration, ≥80% of significant changes in the timing of spring peak indicated advancements, while 67% of significant changes in autumn peak timing indicated delays both across years and with increasing temperatures. Four refuges showed a consistent pattern across species of advancing spring migration peaks over time. Advancements in spring peak across years became proportionally less common among species with increasing latitude, while delays in autumn peak with increasing temperature became proportionally more common. Our study represents the first comprehensive summary of changes in spring and autumn migration phenology for Central Flyway waterfowl and demonstrates significant phenological changes during the latter part of the twentieth century.

Kansas, Nebraska, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Texas↗

USGS2018

Nonbreeding duck use at Central Flyway National Wildlife Refuges

Within the U.S. portion of the Central Flyway, the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service manages waterfowl on numerous individual units (i.e., Refuges) within the National Wildlife Refuge System. Presently, the extent of waterfowl use that Refuges receive and the contribution of Refuges to waterfowl populations (i.e., the proportion of the Central Flyway population registered at each Refuge) remain unassessed. Such an evaluation would help determine to what extent Refuges support waterfowl relative to stated targets, aid in identifying species requiring management attention, inform management targets, and improve fiscal efficiencies. Using historic monitoring data (1954–2008), we performed this assessment for 23 Refuges in Texas, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Kansas, and Nebraska during migration and wintering months (October–March). We examined six dabbling ducks and two diving ducks, plus all dabbling ducks and all diving ducks across two periods (long-term [all data] and short-term [last 10 October–March periods]). Individual Refuge use was represented by the sum of monthly duck count averages for October–March. We used two indices of Refuge contribution: peak contribution and January contribution. Peak contribution was the highest monthly count average for each October–March period divided by the indexed population total for the Central Flyway in the corresponding year; January contribution used the January count average divided by the corresponding population index. Generally, Refuges in Kansas, Nebraska, and New Mexico recorded most use and contribution for mallards Anas platyrhynchos . Refuges along the Texas Gulf Coast recorded most use and contribution for other dabbling ducks, with Laguna Atascosa and Aransas (including Matagorda Island) recording most use for diving ducks. The long-term total January contribution of the assessed Refuges to ducks wintering in the Central Flyway was greatest for green-winged teal Anas crecca with 35%; 12–15% for American wigeon Mareca americana , gadwall Mareca strepera , and northern pintail Anas acuta ; and 7–8% for mallard and mottled duck Anas fulvigula . Results indicated that the reliance on the National Wildlife Refuge System decreased for these ducks, with evidence suggesting that, for several species, the assessed Refuges may be operating at carrying capacity. Future analyses could be more detailed and informative were Refuges to implement a single consistent survey methodology that incorporated estimations of detection bias in the survey process, while concomitantly recording habitat metrics on and neighboring each Refuge.

Journal of Fish and Wildlife Management↗