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Kelly F. Robinson

Publications and source records attributed to Kelly F. Robinson.

At least 19 recordsLinked to original sources
USGS2026

Estimating the power of a standardized monitoring program for sportfish in Georgia, USA

Objective Biological monitoring is a major component of management decisions and operating budgets of many natural resource management agencies. Given the scientific and financial commitments to monitoring, it is critical to estimate the ability to detect trends through time (i.e., power). Methods The Georgia Department of Natural Resources has monitored reservoir sport fish populations since the 1980s. We estimated the power to detect simulated long-term (≥10 years) changes in relative abundance (CPUE) for Largemouth Bass (some of which are a potential genetic admixture of the recently described species Micropterus nigricans [now known as Largemouth Bass] and M. salmoides [now known as Florida Bass)] and Black Crappie Pomoxis nigromaculatus sampled with electrofishing and gill nets, respectively, across multiple reservoirs ( n = 21). Reservoir-specific simulations were parameterized using 13 years (∼2010–2022) of monitoring data. Power was calculated as the proportion of simulations ( n = 1,000) resulting in significant ( P ≤ 0.1) temporal trends across a 10-year period. We considered power ≥0.8 (i.e., 80% of simulations with significant trends) as the threshold for sufficient power across reservoirs. For both species, we estimated power under three scenarios: (1) declining CPUE, (2) increasing CPUE, and (3) reduction to biennial sampling effort with a 50% decline in CPUE. Results Most reservoirs had sufficient power to detect either a 50% decline or a 100% increase in CPUE of Largemouth Bass across a 10-year period. Switching from annual to biennial sampling for Largemouth Bass reduced the number of reservoirs with sufficient power by half. Power was generally lower for Black Crappie until larger declines (75%) or increases (400%) were imposed. Conclusions We found that Largemouth Bass monitoring was generally near or beyond our reference threshold, but post hoc correlation analyses suggested that the power of Black Crappie data could be increased with more within-reservoir station replication. Overall, using data simulation to estimate power proved a valuable tool in assessing the potential ability of common monitoring approaches to detect change.

Georgia↗
USGS2022

Using surrogate taxa to inform response methods for invasive Grass Carp in the Laurentian Great Lakes

Sampling method decisions are critical for the effective monitoring and management of fisheries. Deploying the most effective sampling methodologies is particularly important when responding to new invasive species, where early response efforts have the best chances for eradication. In the Laurentian Great Lakes, the invasive Grass Carp Ctenopharyngodon idella is sampled using boat electrofishing and the combination method of boat electrofishing within and around a trammel net enclosure. We conducted a field study to compare the effectiveness of the two methods. We used capture data for surrogate taxa (i.e., Common Carp Cyprinus carpio and buffalo Ictiobus spp.) to compare the two methods because few Grass Carp were collected during the study. The sampling methods were compared within an occupancy modeling framework using an information-criteria model selection approach to evaluate seven alternative models. The base model included sampling method, year, water temperature, and sampling effort as covariates in the detection submodel and assumed that occupancy probability was constant across sites. The other six models built on the base model by including site, water body type (i.e., lentic vs. lotic), and interaction covariates in the detection submodel. The top-performing model, built on the base model, accounted for the influence of water body type and assumed the exchangeability of site effects in the detection submodel. The results indicated that the detection probabilities for both taxa were higher for the combination method than for boat electrofishing, with a median estimated difference in detection probability between the two methods of 0.11 (95% CI: 0.04–0.22) for Common Carp and 0.18 (95% CI: 0.08–0.28) for buffalo. Given that the combination method was more effective for detecting the surrogate taxa, we expect the combination method may be preferable to only boat electrofishing for Grass Carp removal.

Michigan, New York, Ohio, Ontario, Pennsylvania↗
USGS2021

Using decision analysis to collaboratively respond to invasive species threats: A case study of Lake Erie grass carp (Ctenopharyngodon idella)

Decisions about invasive species control and eradication can be difficult because of uncertainty in population demographics, movement ecology, and effectiveness of potential response actions. These decisions often include multiple stakeholders and management entities with potentially different objectives, management priorities, and jurisdictional authority. We provide a case study of using multi-party, collaborative decision analysis to aid decision makers in determining objectives and control actions for invasive grass carp ( Ctenopharyngodon idella ) in Lake Erie. Creating this process required binational (Canada-United States) and multi-state/provincial collaboration to craft a shared problem statement, establish objectives related to ecological, economic, and social concerns, determine potential response actions, and evaluate consequences and tradeoffs of these actions. We used participatory modeling and expert elicitation to evaluate the effectiveness of control scenarios that varied in action type (i.e., removal efforts and spawning barriers) and the temporal and spatial application of these actions. Using a matrix population model parameterized for western Lake Erie grass carp, we found that removal efforts concentrated in areas of high catchability, when paired with a spawning barrier on the Sandusky River, Ohio, USA, could effectively control grass carp in Lake Erie, if all assumptions are met. We determined a set of key uncertainties regarding gear catchability and current population size that have led to the transition to an adaptive management process. In addition, our work formed the basis for grass carp management plans for the states of Michigan and Ohio and has provided a means for collaboration among agencies for effective application of control efforts.

Michigan, Ohio↗
USGS2021

Understanding sea lamprey populations in the Great Lakes prior to broad implementation of sea lamprey control

Control of invasive sea lamprey in the Great Lakes with a selective pesticide (lampricide) that targeted larval sea lamprey began in the late 1950's and continues to be one of the main methods for control. Although the Great Lakes Fishery Commission, which was formed with the mandate of controlling sea lamprey, often expresses the success of the sea lamprey control program in terms of percent reduction from lake-wide pre-lampricide control adult sea lamprey abundances, there remains a large amount of uncertainty surrounding these estimates. In this study, we gathered historical data on adult sea lamprey captures from trapping efforts from the mid-1950's through the late 1970's to better understand pre-control abundance. We used this information to estimate lake-wide population abundances of adult sea lamprey using a weighted linear regression that includes environmental and lampricide treatment predictor variables. We varied trapping efficiency for early trapping data to evaluate the uncertainty in abundance estimates. Pre-control adult sea lamprey abundances in all lakes were much greater than current population sizes, but estimates were quite sensitive to trapping efficiency. In Lake Superior, declines in abundance aligned with increases in control efforts, but in other lakes, declines were occurring prior to the onset of lampricide application, perhaps because of a loss of prey. We suggest that previous estimates of pre-control adult sea lamprey abundance may have been underestimated unless trapping efficiency was greater than what is currently achieved in the basin.

Great Lakes↗
USGS2021

Slimy sculpin depth shifts and habitat squeeze following the round goby invasion in the Laurentian Great Lakes

The collapse of Diporeia spp. and invasions of dreissenid mussels (zebra, Dreissena polymorpha ; quagga, D. bugensis ) and round goby ( Neogobius melanostomus ) have been associated with declines in abundance of native benthic fishes in the Great Lakes, including historically abundant slimy sculpin ( Cottus cognatus ). We hypothesized that as round goby colonized deeper habitat, slimy sculpin avoided habitat competition, predation, and aggression from round goby by shifting to deeper habitat. Accordingly, we predicted increased depth overlap of slimy sculpin with both round goby and deepwater sculpin ( Myoxocephalus thompsonii ) that resulted in habitat squeeze by both species. We used long-term bottom trawl data from Lakes Michigan, Huron, and Ontario to evaluate shifts in slimy sculpin depth and their depth overlap with round goby and deepwater sculpin. Lake Huron most supported our hypotheses as slimy sculpin shifted to deeper habitat coincident with the round goby invasion, and depth overlap between slimy sculpin and both species recently increased. Slimy sculpin depth trends in Lakes Michigan and Ontario suggest other ecological and environmental factors better predicted sculpin depth in these lakes.

Lake Huron, Lake Michigan, Lake Ontario↗
USGS2021

Using structured decision making to incorporate ecological and social values into harvest decisions: Case studies of white-tailed deer and walleye

Harvest decisions for fish and wildlife populations often include conflicting ecological, economic, and social values. Using decision analysis, such as structured decision making and adaptive management, as a framework to aid decision makers in multi-objective decision making for setting harvest regulations can lead to a more transparent and resilient decision. The process includes opportunities for inclusion of stakeholders’ concerns, either through multi-party workshops or the use of social science techniques to elicit objectives (i.e., values) and predict consequences of management actions. The authors present two case studies of using decision analysis to determine stakeholders’ objectives, identify alternative harvest strategies, predict the consequences of these alternatives on all objectives, and analyze tradeoffs among objectives. A case study of white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ) in New York State provides an example of combining predictive population modeling and implementation of survey instruments statewide to determine optimal region-specific harvest regulations. Harvest management of walleye ( Sander vitreus ) provides an example of the inclusion of commercial and recreational angler groups in a series of workshops to make decisions about harvest quotas for one of the world’s largest freshwater fisheries.

Book chapter↗
USGS2020

A synthesis of the biology and ecology of sculpin species in the Laurentian Great Lakes and implications for the adaptive capacity of the benthic ecosystem

The Laurentian Great Lakes have experienced recent ecosystem changes that could lead to reductions in adaptive capacity and ultimately a loss of biodiversity and production throughout the food web. Observed changes in Great Lakes benthic communities include declines of native species and widespread success of invasive species like dreissenid mussels in all but Lake Superior. Understanding the ecology of native benthic deepwater preyfish and the reasons for their declines is important for predicting future losses in adaptive capacity and diversity, as well as managing the Great Lakes ecosystem to avoid such losses. Native sculpin species ( Cottus bairdii , C. cognatus , C. ricei , Myoxocephalus thompsonii ) historically were among the most abundant of the Great Lakes native deepwater benthic preyfish community and are an important link between offshore benthic and pelagic food webs. With one exception, these species have declined in abundance throughout the Great Lakes in recent years, but relatively little is known about their biology and ecology. This review synthesizes the available knowledge for the Great Lakes sculpin species and provides suggestions for future research efforts, which include understanding reproductive ecology and spawning behavior, connectivity and dispersal of populations, early life history, and influences of interactions with native and non-native species.

Great Lakes↗
USGS2020

Potential changes to the biology and challenges to the management of invasive sea lamprey Petromyzon marinus in the Laurentian Great Lakes due to climate change

Control programs are implemented to mitigate the damage caused by invasive species worldwide. In the highly invaded Great Lakes, the climate is expected to become warmer with more extreme weather and variable precipitation, resulting in shorter iced‐over periods and variable tributary flows as well as changes to pH and river hydrology and hydrogeomorphology. We review how climate change influences physiology, behavior, and demography of a damaging invasive species, sea lamprey ( Petromyzon marinus ), in the Great Lakes, and the consequences for sea lamprey control efforts. Sea lamprey control relies on surveys to monitor abundance of larval sea lamprey in Great Lakes tributaries. The abundance of parasitic, juvenile sea lampreys in the lakes is calculated by surveying wounding rates on lake trout ( Salvelinus namaycush ), and trap surveys are used to enumerate adult spawning runs. Chemical control using lampricides (i.e., lamprey pesticides) to target larval sea lamprey and barriers to prevent adult lamprey from reaching spawning grounds are the most important tools used for sea lamprey population control. We describe how climate change could affect larval survival in rivers, growth and maturation in lakes, phenology and the spawning migration as adults return to rivers, and the overall abundance and distribution of sea lamprey in the Great Lakes. Our review suggests that Great Lakes sea lamprey may benefit from climate change with longer growing seasons, more rapid growth, and greater access to spawning habitat, but uncertainties remain about the future availability and suitability of larval habitats. Consideration of the biology of invasive species and adaptation of the timing, intensity, and frequency of control efforts is critical to the management of biological invasions in a changing world, such as sea lamprey in the Great Lakes.

Great Lakes↗
USGS2020

Managing native and non-native sea lamprey ( Petromyzon marinus ) through anthropogenic change: A prospective assessment of key threats and uncertainties

Sea lamprey ( Petromyzon marinus ) is a species of conservation concern in their native range of the Atlantic coasts of Europe (Near Threatened to Critically Endangered) and North America (Secure to Critically Imperiled), and an invasive species of great economic and ecological concern in the Laurentian Great Lakes. Despite differences in life history strategy (anadromous natives vs adfluvial non-natives), the biology of sea lamprey is sufficiently similar to expect comparable responses to large-scale environmental change. We take a prospective look at the future (50 to 100 years) of sea lamprey management in an era of considerable environmental disturbance, and consider biological responses, management actions, and the future status of populations across the native and non-native ranges. Based on facilitated discussion by a diverse group of international experts, two major but poorly characterized classes of threats to sea lamprey were identified: climate change and socio-political issues. We discuss how climate induced changes affect growth, bioenergetics, and phenology of sea lamprey, and associated effects on control tactics (pesticides and barriers) and conservation. We consider tensions surrounding improving connectivity in the Great Lakes while controlling invasive sea lamprey, and discuss supplements and alternatives to pesticides and their wider effect, as well as the effects of new invasive species. To prevent the extirpation of native sea lamprey populations, or the re-expansion of non-native populations, we conclude with a call for new and ongoing dialogue and collaboration among all sea lamprey biologists and managers across the native and non-native range.

Journal of Great Lakes Research↗
USGS2019

Integration of social and ecological sciences for natural resource decision making: Challenges and opportunities

The last 25 years have witnessed growing recognition that natural resource management decisions depend as much on understanding humans and their social interactions as on understanding the interactions between non-human organisms and their environment. Decision science provides a framework for integrating ecological and social factors into a decision, but challenges to integration remain. The decision-analytic framework elicits values and preferences to help articulate objectives, and then evaluates the outcomes of alternative management actions to achieve these objectives. Integrating social science into these steps can be hindered by failing to include social scientists as more than stakeholder-process facilitators, assuming that specific decision-analytic skills are commonplace for social scientists, misperceptions of social data as inherently qualitative, timescale mismatches for iterating through decision analysis and collecting relevant social data, difficulties in predicting human behavior, and failures of institutions to recognize the importance of this integration. We engage these challenges, and suggest solutions to them, helping move forward the integration of social and biological/ecological knowledge and considerations in decision-making.

Environmental Management↗
USGS2017

Addressing wild turkey population declines using structured decision making

We present a case study from New York, USA, of the use of structured decision making (SDM) to identify fall turkey harvest regulations that best meet stakeholder objectives, in light of recent apparent declines in abundance of wild turkeys in the northeastern United States. We used the SDM framework to incorporate the multiple objectives associated with turkey hunting, stakeholder desires, and region-specific ecological and environmental factors that could influence fall harvest. We identified a set of 4 fall harvest regulations, composed of different season lengths and bag limits, and evaluated their relative achievement of the objectives. We used a stochastic turkey population model, statistical modeling, and expert elicitation to evaluate the consequences of each harvest regulation on each of the objectives. We conducted a statewide mail survey of fall turkey hunters in New York to gather the necessary information to evaluate tradeoffs among multiple objectives associated with hunter satisfaction. The optimal fall harvest regulation was a 2-week season and allowed for the harvest of 1 bird/hunter. This regulation was the most conservative of those evaluated, reflecting the concerns about recent declines in turkey abundance among agency wildlife biologists and the hunting public. Depending on the region of the state, the 2-week, 1-bird regulation was predicted to result in 7–32% more turkeys on the landscape after 5 years. The SDM process provided a transparent framework for setting fall turkey harvest regulations and reduced potential stakeholder conflict by explicitly taking the multiple objectives of different stakeholder groups into account.

New York↗
USGS2016

Structured decision making as a framework for large-scale wildlife harvest management decisions

Fish and wildlife harvest management at large spatial scales often involves making complex decisions with multiple objectives and difficult tradeoffs, population demographics that vary spatially, competing stakeholder values, and uncertainties that might affect management decisions. Structured decision making (SDM) provides a formal decision analytic framework for evaluating difficult decisions by breaking decisions into component parts and separating the values of stakeholders from the scientific evaluation of management actions and uncertainty. The result is a rigorous, transparent, and values-driven process. This decision-aiding process provides the decision maker with a more complete understanding of the problem and the effects of potential management actions on stakeholder values, as well as how key uncertainties can affect the decision. We use a case study to illustrate how SDM can be used as a decision-aiding tool for management decision making at large scales. We evaluated alternative white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ) buck-harvest regulations in New York designed to reduce harvest of yearling bucks, taking into consideration the values of the state wildlife agency responsible for managing deer, as well as deer hunters. We incorporated tradeoffs about social, ecological, and economic management concerns throughout the state. Based on the outcomes of predictive models, expert elicitation, and hunter surveys, the SDM process identified management alternatives that optimized competing objectives. The SDM process provided biologists and managers insight about aspects of the buck-harvest decision that helped them adopt a management strategy most compatible with diverse hunter values and management concerns.

Ecosphere↗
USGS2016

Participatory modeling and structured decision making

Structured decision making (SDM) provides a framework for making sound decisions even when faced with uncertainty, and is a transparent, defensible, and replicable method used to understand complex problems. A hallmark of SDM is the explicit incorporation of values and science, which often includes participation from multiple stakeholders, helping to garner trust and ultimately result in a decision that is more likely to be implemented. The core steps in the SDM process are used to structure thinking about natural resources management choices, and include: (1) properly defining the problem and the decision context, (2) determining the objectives that help describe the aspirations of the decision maker, (3) devising management actions or alternatives that can achieve those objectives, (4) evaluating the outcomes or consequences of each alternative on each of the objectives, (5) evaluating trade-offs, and (6) implementing the decision. Participatory modeling for SDM includes engaging stakeholders in some or all of the steps of the SDM process listed above. In addition, participatory modeling often is crucial for creating qualitative and quantitative models of how the system works, providing data for these models, and eliciting expert opinion when data are unavailable. In these ways, SDM provides a framework for decision making in natural resources management that includes participation from stakeholder groups throughout the process, including the modeling phase.

Book chapter↗
USGS2014

Can managers compensate for coyote predation of white-tailed deer?

Many studies have documented that coyotes ( Canis latrans ) are the greatest source of natural mortality for white-tailed deer ( Odocoileus virginianus ) neonates (<3 months old). With the range expansion of coyotes eastward in North America, many stakeholders are concerned that coyote predation may be affecting deer populations adversely. We hypothesized that declines in neonate survival, perhaps caused by increasing coyote predation, could be offset by adjusting or eliminating antlerless harvest allocations. We used a stochastic, age-based population simulation model to evaluate combinations of low neonate survival rates, severe winters, and low adult deer survival rates to determine the effectiveness of reduced antlerless harvest at stabilizing deer populations. We found that even in regions with high winter mortality, reduced antlerless harvest rates could stabilize deer populations with recruitment and survival rates reported in the literature. When neonate survival rates were low (25%) and yearling and adult female survival rates were reduced by 10%, elimination of antlerless harvests failed to stabilize populations. Our results suggest increased deer mortality from coyotes can be addressed through reduced hunting harvest of adult female deer in most circumstances throughout eastern North America. However, specific knowledge of adult female survival rates is important for making management decisions in areas where both neonate and adult survival may be affected by predation and other mortality factors.

Journal of Wildlife Management↗
USGS2014

Productivity of functional guilds of fishes in managed wetlands in coastal South Carolina

In coastal South Carolina, many wetlands are impounded and managed as migratory waterfowl habitat. Impoundment effects on fish production and habitat quality largely are unknown. We used the size-frequency method to estimate summer production of fish guilds in three impoundments along the Combahee River, South Carolina. We predicted that guild-specific production would vary with impoundment salinity, which ranged from 3 to 21 practical salinity units. We expected that marine species that use the estuary as nursery habitat would have greatest production in the impoundment with the highest salinity regime, and that species that inhabit the upper reaches of the estuary would have greatest production in the impoundment with the lowest salinity regime. Finally, we expected that estuarine species would be highly productive in all study impoundments, because these species can reproduce within these structures. We found that guild-specific productivity varied both among years and among impoundments, generally following salinity gradients, though to a lesser extent than expected. Our guild-specific estimates of fish productivity fell on the low end of the range of previously published estuarine fish production estimates. Additionally, we observed large mortality events in the study impoundments each summer. The results of our study indicate that during the summer, the study impoundments provided poor-quality fish habitat to all guilds.

South Carolina↗
USGS2014

A comparison of resident fish assemblages in managed and unmanaged coastal wetlands in North Carolina and South Carolina

The dominant fish species within impounded coastal wetlands in the southeastern US may be different from the species that dominate natural marshes. We tested the hypothesis that resident fish assemblages inhabiting impounded coastal wetlands in South Carolina would differ from resident assemblages in natural marshes of the southeastern United States. We used rarefied species richness, Shannon's H' diversity, J' evenness, Morisita's index of similarity, and the percent similarity index to compare resident fish assemblages from two impoundments to 12 open-marsh resident fish assemblages from previously published studies in North and South Carolina. We used rotenone to sample fish assemblages in impoundments. The assemblages in natural marsh habitat had been sampled with rotenone and seines. We classified comparisons yielding a similarity index &ge;0.50 as moderately similar and those with an index &ge;0.75 as very similar. Fifty-three percent of the among-impoundment comparisons (Morisita's index) were at least moderately similar, whereas 7% of impoundment&mdash;natural marsh comparisons were moderately similar. A difference in tidal influence was the only parameter in the best-fitting model describing the observed Morisita's indices. The index of similarity decreased by 63% when tidal influence differed between compared assemblages. Species richness and diversity were greater in impoundments than natural marshes, but evenness was similar between habitat types. Our results support the hypothesis that resident fish assemblages in impounded wetlands and natural marshes are different, and suggest that a degree of tidal influence is the most important factor behind the difference.

North Carolina, South Carolina↗