Geology topics

Kathryn Powlen

Publications and source records attributed to Kathryn Powlen.

10 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2026

Debunking the myth of the quintessential resource manager: Precision in actionable science

“Actionable science” is a widely held standard for identifying the merits of natural resources research. Yet, science is often framed as actionable to a vaguely identified quintessential “manager” without defining either the intended manager or use. Generic descriptions lack precision for identifying end users or their needs, limiting methodological rigor in research design and leading to contextual misalignments of outputs with the need they intended to serve. Further, imprecise terminology limits the ability to evaluate impact, replicate efforts, or foster adoption and implementation of findings. This perspective article presents the heuristic of “who, what, when, where, why, how” to help researchers be more precise when describing their actionable science. Through intentional reflection, researchers can move beyond generic framings of “managers” representing monolithic organizations. “Managers” become individuals, with unique responsibilities, functions, worldviews, and levels of authority, all influencing their use of and need for scientific information and data.

Conservation Science and Practice↗

USGS2026

Local water use and climate variability drive water stress and alter ecological flows over the conterminous United States

Consistent, large-scale estimates of water availability are needed to identify and avoid potential conflicts among human and ecosystem uses of water. We present an assessment of water limitation, defined as the monthly balance (difference) between water supply ( ws ) and human consumptive water use ( wc ), for the conterminous United States (CONUS) during water years 2010–2020. We estimate that 26.7 million Americans, 8% of CONUS population, live in areas with chronic high or severe water limitation. Although ws greatly exceeds wc at the CONUS scale, water is limited locally or regionally due to spatial and temporal patterns in climate and wc . Our water limitation metric, the monthly supply and use index (SUI), peaked in 2012 during a widespread drought when 38% of the CONUS land area experienced elevated water stress. The central and Southwestern U.S. experienced the highest SUI due to the combination of low ws and high wc , especially for irrigation. Spatial overlays of SUI and fish habitat ranges, including those of conservation concern, revealed that several species had notable proportions of their habitat exposed to high or severe water limitation during spawning season over the modeled time period, especially the Arkansas River shiner. ws was calculated from two CONUS, physically-based, hydrologic models while wc was calculated from three CONUS models of water use for crop irrigation, thermoelectric power generation, and public supply. The ws and wc values were routed through a stream network and compared to calculate water limitation and SUI for human populations and fish species at the scale of 12-digit hydrologic unit codes. Evaluation of water availability at higher spatial and temporal resolution promotes more comprehensive analyses of the drivers of water availability and can be combined with complementary studies of water quality and water limiting thresholds to better understand the limitations on water availability.

conterminous United States↗

USGS2025

Climate change and future water availability in the United States

The steady rise in global temperature as a result of human activity is causing changes in Earth’s water cycle. The balance of water stored within and moving between vapor, liquid, and frozen states in the water cycle is shifting, with consequences for water availability that include increases in drought, fire weather, flooding, and heavy precipitation, as well as cryosphere decline and sea-level rise. In this chapter of the U.S. Geological Survey Integrated Water Availability Assessment—2010–20, we provide an overview of climate-change observations and projections from Earth-system model simulations that relate to future water availability, from global and national climate assessments and from the published literature. Effects of climate change on primary water-cycle components are discussed in context of how global-scale hydroclimate drivers influence regional processes within the United States. Understanding the major climate drivers impacting the water cycle is crucial to predicting future changes in water availability and developing adaptation strategies to ensure human and ecosystem water supplies. First, we provide background information on the water cycle, the climate-model ensemble simulations developed to produce projections based on warming scenarios, and attribution and certainty levels. Tipping points, self-reinforcing feedbacks, cascading effects, and compound extremes are introduced. The framework of climatic impact drivers (CIDs) outlined in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Sixth Assessment Report (IPCC AR6) is used to show primary drivers of physical change to the water cycle and to understand and predict changes in future water availability. Specific climate-change related observations and projections are discussed for water cycle components of precipitation, evapotranspiration, soil moisture, streamflow, lakes and wetlands, ice and snow, and groundwater, as well as their implications for future water availability for humans and ecosystems. The chapter concludes with a synthesis discussion of three examples of complex regional-scale hydroclimate processes that influence water availability for populations in the United States, including (1) mountain and coastal precipitation, (2) aridification and drought, and (3) the influence of forest-cover change on terrestrial water-vapor recycling.

Professional Paper↗

USGS2025

Integrated water availability in the conterminous United States, 2010–20

Water availability is defined as the spatial and temporal distribution of water quantity and quality as it relates to the needs of humans and ecosystems. Broad assessment of water availability requires the consideration of multiple indicators because water users have different sensitivities to the degradation of water conditions. This chapter draws upon estimates of water supply, water use, and water quality to develop an integrated assessment of water availability in the conterminous United States (CONUS) for water years 2010–2020. The surface water-supply and use index (SUI) was used to express limitation arising from high water consumption in relation to water supply. Ecological stress was also assessed using indicators of ecologically detrimental flow alteration. Benchmarks of human and ecological health were used to assess water quality in relation to several key uses nationwide. In all, we find that 10 of 18 hydrologic regions have severe water stress in at least 1 indicator. Furthermore, it was common for regions to have high or severe stress in more than one indicator, which emphasizes that limitations often co-occur. For example, regions with high SUIs may also have an increased tendency to experience water quality degradation or ecologically detrimental flow alteration. Furthermore, we compared the spatial distribution of water availability against the Centers for Disease Control Social Vulnerability Index (SVI) to examine the relative distribution of socially vulnerable populations in relation to limitations on water availability. We found a tendency for an increasing segment of the population exposed to elevated SUI or water-quality degradation to be from socially vulnerable groups, as defined by SVI. This finding is similar to other studies that have noted greater water-availability limitations among socially vulnerable groups. By considering multiple indicators of water availability as a whole, greater insight into the distribution of limitations affecting water availability was gained and contributed to a more comprehensive assessment.

conterminous United States↗

USGS2025

Local water use and climate drive water stress over the conterminous United States with substantial impacts to fish species of conservation concern

There is a growing need for consistent, large-scale estimates of water availability to identify and avoid potential conflicts among human and ecosystem uses of water. We present an assessment of water limitation, defined as the monthly balance (difference) between water supply ( ws ) and human consumptive water use ( wc ), for the conterminous United States (CONUS) during water years 2010–2020. We estimate that 26.7 million Americans, 8% of CONUS population, live in areas with chronic high or severe water limitation. Although ws greatly exceeds wc at the CONUS scale, water is limited locally or regionally due to spatial and temporal patterns in climate and wc . Our water limitation metric, the monthly supply and use index (SUI), peaked in 2012 during a widespread drought when 38% of the CONUS land area experienced elevated water stress. The central and southwestern U.S. experienced the highest SUI due to the combination of low ws and high wc , especially for crop irrigation. Spatial overlays of SUI and habitat ranges for fish species, including those of conservation concern, revealed that several species had notable proportions of their habitat exposed to high or severe water limitation during spawning season over the modeled time period, especially the Arkansas River shiner. Water supply ( ws ) was calculated from two CONUS, physically based, hydrologic models while wc was calculated from three CONUS models of water use for crop irrigation, thermoelectric power generation, and public supply. The ws and wc values were routed through a stream network and used to calculate water limitation for human populations and fish species at the scale of 12-digit hydrologic unit codes (HUC12s, 50-100 km 2 catchments) and then analyzed using SUI. Evaluation of water availability at higher spatial and temporal resolution promotes more comprehensive analyses of the drivers of water availability and can be combined with complementary studies of water quality and water limiting thresholds to better understand the limitations on water availability.

conterminous United States↗

USGS2024

Social vulnerability and water insecurity in the western US: A systematic review of framings, indicators, and uncertainty

Water insecurity poses a complex challenge for the western United States. Large populations are exposed and susceptible to physical and social factors that can leave them with precarious access to sufficient water supplies. Consideration of social issues by water managers can help ensure equitable supply. However, how social factors affect water insecurity conditions remains unclear. This paper reviews literature on how social vulnerability influences water insecurity in the western United States. Through a meta-analysis, indicators measuring how dimensions of social vulnerability influence water insecurity were classified and hierarchical clustering was used to characterize the relationships among these vulnerability dimensions for the largest water-users—the agricultural and municipal sectors. The study then assessed uncertainty associated with social vulnerability dimensions and their indicators. There is greatest evidence for the influence of demographic characteristics, socioeconomic status, and exposure. Indicators of these determinants were mainly significant and exacerbated conditions of water insecurity. Evidence for indicators of social dependence and special needs populations was limited, although studies assessing these factors showed significant agreement on their influence on water insecurity. Conceptual framings of social vulnerability and water security determined which indicators were measured, whereas studies of the water-use sectors focused on differing associations of social vulnerability. These findings indicate the importance of recognizing the different contexts posed by water-use sectors and diverse conceptual framings. Further, some determinants such as living conditions remain important but underexplored drivers of a community's experience of water insecurity. Understanding the uncertainty associated with these measures has implications to equitable decision making.

Water Resources Research↗

USGS2024

A gender and social vulnerability assessment approach

The report on an approach for gender and social vulnerability assessment is a supporting tool – or a guiding note – to assist the MRC to conduct the gender and vulnerability assessment in the Lower Mekong Basin. While the approach focuses on floods, droughts, and extreme storm events for the MRC’s future application, the overall gender and vulnerability framework described in this report could be applied to water resource development in the Mekong. It describes the steps for calculating exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity components to determine an overall vulnerability score at the province level for each of the Mekong countries, which will shed light on possible strategies and measures to reduce vulnerability and achieve greater gender equality.

Report↗

USGS2024

Flash drought: A state of the science review

In the two decades, since the advent of the term “flash drought,” considerable research has been directed toward the topic. Within the scientific community, we have actively forged a new paradigm that has avoided a chaotic evolution of conventional drought but instead recognizes that flash droughts have distinct dynamics and, particularly, impacts. We have moved beyond the initial debate over the definition of flash drought to a centralized focus on the triad of rapid onset, drought development, and associated impacts. The refinement toward this general set of principles has led to significant progress in determining key variables for monitoring flash drought development, identifying notable case studies, and compiling fundamental physical characteristics of flash drought. However, critical focus areas still remain, including advancing our knowledge on the atmospheric and oceanic drivers of flash drought; developing flash drought-specific detection indices and monitoring systems tailored to practitioners; improving subseasonal-to-seasonal prediction of these events; constraining uncertainty in flash drought and impact projections; and using social science to further our understanding of impacts, particularly with regard to sectors that lie outside of our traditional hydroclimatological focus, such as wildfire management and food-security monitoring. Researchers and stakeholders working together on these critical topics will assure society is resilient to flash drought in a changing climate.

Montana, North Dakota, South Dakota↗

USGS2024

Climate-smart agriculture for Ukraine: Winter wheat breeding for food security and climate adaptation

Since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in early 2020, people have experienced food insecurity challenges because of increased prices of staple food commodities and loss of income or livelihood. Globally, countries with limited capacity to adapt have struggled to recover from pandemic-related disruptions and are further challenged to address adverse effects of climate change on agricultural production (United Nations [UN], 2022). Ukraine, a key agricultural exporter of staple food commodities, has a vital role in contributing to global food security, in particular through its wheat exports to countries in the Middle East, North Africa, and Europe (Martyshev and others, 2023). However, Ukraine’s role as a stable source of global wheat has been disrupted by the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war—a conflict which began in February of 2022. Given the fragile state of global and local markets and food systems, and the increasing risk climate change poses to agricultural production globally, Ukraine has prioritized adopting efficient agricultural practices to contribute to stabilizing crop yields and to increase its capacity to export wheat and other staple crops. According to Ukraine’s Ministry of Agrarian Policy and Food (MINAGRO), along with addressing climate change, a contributing driver for this prioritization is the desire to join the European Union (EU) and the need to meet the requirements for the EU’s Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) for acceptance as a union member state (Markiyan Dmytrasevych, a former deputy minister of MINAGRO, oral commun., 2023). As a result, MINAGRO is considering climate-smart agricultural practices to secure future crop yields and build resilience within its agricultural sector, especially as the war has impeded millions of tons of crops from reaching domestic and global markets. This report employs the climate-smart agriculture framework to provide Ukrainian agricultural policy- and decision makers and others in technical and development assistance roles with an overview of relevant climate, environmental, and agricultural policy and market factors, and projections on climate and environmental resources that could influence the implementation of climate-smart agricultural practices in Ukraine, and aid Ukraine in successfully joining the EU.

Report↗

USGS2023

An integrated framework for examining groundwater vulnerability in the Mekong River Delta region

The Mekong River provides water, food security, and many other valuable benefits to the more than 60 million Southeast Asian residents living within its basin. However, the Mekong River Basin is increasingly stressed by changes in climate, land cover, and infrastructure. These changes can affect water quantity and quality and exacerbate related hazards such as land subsidence and saltwater intrusion, resulting in multiple compounding risks for neighboring communities. In this study, we demonstrate the connection between climate change, groundwater availability, and social vulnerability by linking the results of a numerical groundwater model to land cover and socioeconomic data at the Cambodia-Vietnam border in the Mekong River Delta region. We simulated changes in groundwater availability across 20 years and identified areas of potential water stress based on domestic and agriculture-related freshwater demands. We then assessed adaptive capacity to understand how communities may be able to respond to this stress to better understand the growing risk of groundwater scarcity driven by climate change and overextraction. This study offers a novel approach for assessing risk of groundwater scarcity by linking the effects of climate change to the socioeconomic context in which they occur. Increasing our understanding of how changes in groundwater availability may affect local populations can help water managers better plan for the future, leading to more resilient communities.

PLoS ONE↗