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Karl E. Winters

Publications and source records attributed to Karl E. Winters.

6 recordsLinked to original sources

Annual and approximately quarterly series peak streamflow derived from interpretations of indirect measurements for a crest-stage gage network in Texas through water year 2015

In 2006, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Texas Department of Transportation, began collecting annual and approximately quarterly series peak-streamflow data at streamflow-gaging stations in smallto medium-sized watersheds in central and western Texas as part of a crest-stage gage (CSG) network, along with selected flood-hydrograph data at a subset of these stations. CSGs record the peak stage during storm events, which is the maximum gage height (elevation of water surface above a local vertical datum), at each CSG station. Established and widely used indirect methods of peak streamflow estimation and interpretation, such as culvert-flow, slope-area, and flow-over-road methods, are used in conjunction with peak gage height data to create the database of peak streamflow described herein. The CSG network is focused on hydrology of small- to medium-sized watersheds in central and western Texas because additional streamflow data for this semiarid to arid study area will eventually provide for more statistical information and presumably reduced uncertainty in regional regression equations or other regionalized statistical methods for peak-streamflow frequency estimation at ungaged locations. The database of annual and approximately quarterly peak streamflow is published through USGS ScienceBase and described in this report.

Texas

A historical perspective on precipitation, drought severity, and streamflow in Texas during 1951-56 and 2011

The intense drought throughout Texas during 2011 resulted in substantial declines in streamflow. By April 2011, nearly all of the State was experiencing severe to extreme drought according to data from the University of Nebraska–Lincoln Drought Monitor. By the end of July 2011, more than 75 percent of the State was experiencing exceptional drought. The worst of the drought occurred around October 4, 2011, when 97 percent of Texas was suffering from extreme to exceptional drought. The historical drought of 1951–56 has long been used by water-resource managers, engineers, and scientists as a point of reference for water-supply planning. A comparison of drought conditions during the 2011 water year (October 1, 2010, through September 30, 2011) to the historical drought of 1951–56 from a hydrologic perspective serves as an additional reference for water-supply planning. A record low statewide average annual precipitation of 11.27 inches for the period 1895–2011 was recorded during the 2011 water year; the prior record low statewide average precipitation was 13.91 inches during the 1956 water year. The statewide monthly Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) declined to -7.93 during September 2011, which was larger in magnitude than the statewide PDSI during any drought-affected month in the 1950s. Annual mean streamflow and streamflow-duration curves for the 1951–56 and 2011 water years were assessed for 19 unregulated U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow-gaging stations. At eight of these streamflow-gaging stations, the annual mean streamflow was lower in 2011 than for any year during 1951–56; many of these stations are located in eastern Texas. Annual mean streamflows for streamflow-gaging stations in the Guadalupe, Blanco, and upper Frio River Basins were lower in 1956 than in 2011. The streamflow-duration curves for many streamflow-gaging stations indicate a lack of (or diminished) storm runoff during 2011. Low streamflows (those exceeded 90 to 95 percent of days) were lower for 1956 than for 2011 at seven streamflow-gaging stations. For most of these stations, the lowest of the low streamflows during 1951–56 occurred in 1956. During March to September 2011, record daily lows were measured at USGS streamflow-gaging station 08041500 Village Creek near Kountze, Tex., which has more than 70 years of record. Many other USGS streamflow-gaging stations in Texas started the 2011 water year with normal streamflow but by the end of the water year were flowing at near-record lows.

Texas

A preliminary assessment of streamflow gains and losses for selected stream reaches in the lower Guadalupe River Basin, Texas, 2010-12

The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers–Fort Worth District, the Texas Water Development Board, the Guadalupe-Blanco River Authority, and the Edwards Aquifer Authority, investigated streamflow gains and losses in the lower Guadalupe River Basin during four selected base-flow periods in March 2010, April 2011, August 2011, and, for a stream reach between Seguin, Tex., and Gonzales, Tex., in September 2012. Major sources of streamflow in this basin include releases from Canyon Lake, inflow from major springs (Comal Springs, San Marcos Springs, and Hueco Springs), and base flow (groundwater seeping to streams). Streamflow and spring-flow data were collected at 35 streamflow-gaging stations (including 6 deployed for this study) during the base-flow periods. This report describes streamflow in the lower Guadalupe River Basin, which consists of the Guadalupe River drainage basin downstream from Canyon Lake to the Guadalupe River near Tivoli, Tex. Streamflow conditions in the lower Guadalupe River Basin were analyzed by computing surface-water budgets for reaches of the lower Guadalupe River and tributary streams. Streamflow gains and losses were mapped for reaches where the computed gain or loss was greater than the uncertainty in the computed streamflow at the upstream and downstream ends of the reach. During the March 15–21, 2010, base-flow period, five reaches had gains greater than the uncertainty in the computed streamflow, including reach 1 on the Guadalupe River, which gained 130 cubic feet per second (ft 3 /s), and reach 3 on the Comal River, which gained 359 ft 3 /s. Streamflow gains during March 2010 primarily were derived from (1) inflow from the Edwards aquifer outcrop, including Hueco Springs and Comal Springs; (2) flow conveyed through the alluvium of the streambed; (3) inflows from the Carrizo-Wilcox aquifer and the Yegua Jackson aquifer; and (4) groundwater inflows from the Gulf Coast aquifer, which are enhanced by seepage losses from Coleto Creek Reservoir. During this base-flow period, none of the reaches had a loss greater in magnitude than the uncertainty in the computed streamflow. During the April 10–16, 2011, base-flow period, three reaches had gains greater than the uncertainty in the computed streamflow. Among these three reaches were reach 1 on the Guadalupe River, which gained 40.7 ft 3 /s, and reach 3 on the Comal River, which gained 271 ft 3 /s—reaches where streamflow gains were also measured in March 2010. Streamflow gains during April 2011 primarily were derived from (1) inflow from the Edwards aquifer outcrop, including Hueco Springs and Comal Springs; and (2) inflows from the Carrizo-Wilcox aquifer. During this base-flow period, three reaches had losses greater in magnitude than the uncertainty in the computed streamflow. A reach of the Blanco River near Kyle, Tex. (reach 10), lost 18.7 cubic feet per second (ft3/s). Much of this loss likely entered the groundwater system through the numerous faults that intersect the stream channel northwest of Kyle. The reach that included the confluence of the Guadalupe and San Marcos Rivers (reach 17) lost 155 ft 3 /s, likely as recharge to the Sparta and Queen City aquifers. During the August 19–25, 2011, base-flow period, three reaches had gains greater than the uncertainty in the computed streamflow, including reach 3 on the Comal River (168 ft 3 /s gain), which was one of the reaches where gains in streamflow also were measured in March 2010 and April 2011. Streamflow gains in August 2011 were primarily from (1) inflows from Comal Springs, (2) inflows from the Yegua Jackson aquifer, and (3) groundwater inflows from the Gulf Coast aquifer, which are enhanced by seepage losses from Coleto Creek Reservoir. During this base-flow period, five reaches had losses greater in magnitude than the uncertainty in the computed streamflow. The reach including the confluence of the Guadalupe and Comal Rivers lost 82.8 ft 3 /s. Much of that loss likely seeped into the local groundwater system. The reach of the Guadalupe River south of New Braunfels, Tex., to Seguin, Tex., lost 53.5 ft 3 /s. Part of that loss may have been from seepage through streambed alluvium. Reaches 9 and 10 of the Blanco River near Kyle lost 2.20 and 6.60 ft 3 /s, respectively, likely as infiltration through numerous faults intersecting the stream channel northwest of Kyle. Plum Creek between Lockhart, Tex., and Luling, Tex., lost 2.11 ft 3 /s, likely as recharge to the Carrizo-Wilcox aquifer. A base-flow period during September 22–28, 2012, was studied for the reach of the Guadalupe River between Seguin and Gonzalez, including flows from San Marcos River and Plum Creek. During this period, for the Guadalupe River reach between Seguin and Oak Forest, no computed gains or losses were greater in magnitude than the uncertainty in the computed streamflow.

Texas

Floods in Central Texas, September 7-14, 2010

Severe flooding occurred near the Austin metropolitan area in central Texas September 7–14, 2010, because of heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Hermine. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the Upper Brushy Creek Water Control and Improvement District, determined rainfall amounts and annual exceedance probabilities for rainfall resulting in flooding in Bell, Williamson, and Travis counties in central Texas during September 2010. We documented peak streamflows and the annual exceedance probabilities for peak streamflows recorded at several streamflow-gaging stations in the study area. The 24-hour rainfall total exceeded 12 inches at some locations, with one report of 14.57 inches at Lake Georgetown. Rainfall probabilities were estimated using previously published depth-duration frequency maps for Texas. At 4 sites in Williamson County, the 24-hour rainfall had an annual exceedance probability of 0.002. Streamflow measurement data and flood-peak data from U.S. Geological Survey surface-water monitoring stations (streamflow and reservoir gaging stations) are presented, along with a comparison of September 2010 flood peaks to previous known maximums in the periods of record. Annual exceedance probabilities for peak streamflow were computed for 20 streamflow-gaging stations based on an analysis of streamflow-gaging station records. The annual exceedance probability was 0.03 for the September 2010 peak streamflow at the Geological Survey's streamflow-gaging stations 08104700 North Fork San Gabriel River near Georgetown, Texas, and 08154700 Bull Creek at Loop 360 near Austin, Texas. The annual exceedance probability was 0.02 for the peak streamflow for Geological Survey's streamflow-gaging station 08104500 Little River near Little River, Texas. The lack of similarity in the annual exceedance probabilities computed for precipitation and streamflow might be attributed to the small areal extent of the heaviest rainfall over these and the other gaged watersheds.

Texas

Assessment of channel changes, model of historical floods, and effects of backwater on flood stage, and flood mitigation alternatives for the Wichita River at Wichita Falls, Texas

In cooperation with the City of Wichita Falls, the U.S. Geological Survey assessed channel changes on the Wichita River at Wichita Falls, Texas, and modeled historical floods to investigate possible causes and potential mitigation alternatives to higher flood stages in recent (2007 and 2008) floods. Extreme flooding occurred on the Wichita River on June 30, 2007, inundating 167 homes in Wichita Falls. Although a record flood stage was reached in June 2007, the peak discharge was much less than some historical floods at Wichita Falls. Streamflow and stage data from two gages on the Wichita River and one on Holliday Creek were used to assess the interaction of the two streams. Changes in the Wichita River channel were evaluated using historical aerial and ground photography, comparison of recent and historical cross sections, and comparison of channel roughness coefficients with those from earlier studies. The floods of 2007 and 2008 were modeled using a one-dimensional step-backwater model. Calibrated channel roughness was larger for the 2007 flood compared to the 2008 flood, and the 2007 flood peaked about 4 feet higher than the 2008 flood. Calibration of the 1941 flood yielded a channel roughness coefficient (Manning's n ) of 0.030, which represents a fairly clean natural channel. The step-backwater model was also used to evaluate the following potential mitigation alternatives: (1) increasing the capacity of the bypass channel near River Road in Wichita Falls, Texas; (2) removal of obstructions near the Scott Avenue and Martin Luther King Junior Boulevard bridges in Wichita Falls, Texas; (3) widening of aggraded channel banks in the reach between Martin Luther King Junior Boulevard and River Road; and (4) reducing channel bank and overbank roughness. Reductions in water-surface elevations ranged from 0.1 foot to as much as 3.0 feet for the different mitigation alternatives. The effects of implementing a combination of different flood-mitigation alternatives were not investigated.

Texas

Simulations of flooding on Tchoutacabouffa River at State Highways 15 and 67 at D'Iberville, Mississippi

A two-dimensional finite-element surface-water model was used to simulate the effects of the proposed State Highways 15 and 67 relocation on water-surface elevations and flow distributions for the 100-year flood on the Tchoutacabouffa River at D'Iberville, Mississippi. The Mississippi Department of Transportation plans to relocate State Highways 15 and 67 by removing a portion of the existing four-lane highway and constructing a four-lane facility upstream of the existing alignment. The proposed alignment is located on the northern floodplain and will tie into the existing highway about 1,000 feet north of the dual State Highways 15 and 67 bridges. The proposed alignment will intercept flows that cross the existing highway during large floods. Seven scenarios were simulated for the 100-year flood, including four proposed alternative configurations for drainage structures. The model grid was developed by using surveyed floodplain cross sections and channel bathymetry data obtained by using an Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler, in combination with a global positioning system. The model was calibrated and verified by using surveyed flood profiles through the study reach and flood discharge measurements obtained at the State Highways 15 and 67 crossing. Model parameters were adjusted so that the computed water-surface profiles agreed closely with the surveyed flood profiles. Computed water-surface differentials across the proposed alignment near the northern edge of the floodplain for the four alternatives proposed by the Mississippi Department of Transportation ranged from 1.4 to 2.6 feet. Much lower differentials were computed in the vicinity of the main-channel bridge. The computed water-surface elevation at McCully Drive, upstream of the proposed alignment, was 17.3 feet for existing conditions. Computed water-surface elevations at McCully Drive for the proposed alternatives ranged from 17.3 to 17.8 feet.

Mississippi