Geology topics

Karen R. Ryberg

Publications and source records attributed to Karen R. Ryberg.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources

USGS2020

Landscape drivers of dynamic change in water quality of US rivers

Water security is a top concern for social well-being and dramatic changes in the availability of freshwater have occurred as a result of human uses and landscape management. Elevated nutrient loading and perturbations to major ion composition have resulted from human activities and have degraded freshwater resources. This study addresses the emerging nature of stream water quality in the 21st century through analysis of concentrations and trends in a wide variety of constituents in streams and rivers of the U.S. Concentrations of fifteen separate water quality parameters including nutrients, major ions, sediment, and specific conductance were analyzed over the period 1982-2012 and a targeted trend analysis was performed from 1992-2012. Although environmental policy is geared toward addressing the long-standing problem of nutrient overenrichment, these efforts have had uneven success, with decreasing nutrient concentrations at urbanized sites and little to no change at agricultural sites. However, freshwaters are being salinized rapidly in all human-dominated land use types. Increasing salinity negatively affects biodiversity, mobilizes sediment-bound contaminants, and increases lead contamination of drinking water but the effects are poorly quantified. Therefore, while efforts to control nutrients are ongoing, rapid salinity increases are ushering in a new set of poorly-defined issues.

Environmental Science & Technology↗

USGS2020

Causal effect of impervious cover on annual flood magnitude for the United States

Despite consensus that impervious surfaces increase flooding, the magnitude of the increase remains uncertain. This uncertainty largely stems from the challenge of isolating the effect of changes in impervious cover separate from other factors that also affect flooding. To control for these factors, prior study designs rely on either temporal or spatial variation in impervious cover. We leverage both temporal and spatial variation in a panel data regression design to isolate the effect of impervious cover on floods. With 39 years of data from 280 U.S. streamgages, we estimate that a one percentage point increase in impervious basin cover causes a 3.3% increase in annual flood magnitude (95%CI: 1.9%, 4.7%) on average. Using 2,109 streamgages, some of which have upstream regulation and/or overlapping basins, we estimate a larger effect: 4.6% (CI: 3.5%, 5.6%). The approach introduced here can be extended to estimate the causal effects of other drivers of hydrologic change.

Geophysical Research Letters↗

USGS2020

Causal factors for pesticide trends in streams of the United States: Atrazine and deethylatrazine

Pesticides are important for agriculture in the United States, and atrazine is one of the most widely used and widely detected pesticides in surface water. A better understanding of the mechanisms by which atrazine and its degradation product, deethylatrazine, increase and decrease in surface waters can help inform future decisions for water-quality improvement. This study considers causal factors for trends in pesticide concentration in streams in the United States and models the causal factors, other than use, in structural equation models. The structural equation models use a concomitant trend in corn and a latent variable model indicating moisture supply and management. The moisture supply and management latent variable incorporates long-term moisture conditions in the individual watersheds by using the Palmer Hydrologic Drought Index; human influence on the hydrologic cycle through the percent of the watershed drained by tile drains in 2012; and the base-flow contribution to streamflow, using the base-flow index. The structural equation models explain 77% and 38% of the variability in atrazine and deethylatrazine trends, respectively, across the conterminous United States. The models highlight future water-quality challenges, particularly in tile-drained settings where fall precipitation and heavy precipitation are increasing.

Journal of Environmental Quality↗

USGS2020

Change points in annual peak streamflows: Method comparisons and historical change points in the United States

Change-point, or step-trend, detection is an active area of research in statistics and an area of great interest in hydrology because change points may be evidence of natural or anthropogenic changes in climatic, hydrologic, or landscape processes. A common change-point technique is the Pettitt test; however, many change-point methods are now available and testing of methods has been limited. This study investigated eight methods for detecting change points in the location (central tendency, seven methods) and scale (dispersion or spread, one method) of annual peak streamflows, using simulated data with and without change points, and peak-streamflow series from basins with known large additions of reservoir storage. Parametric methods tested, including a Bayesian one, did not perform well, even when transforming peak streamflows to approximate normality by using logarithms. Nonparametric methods other than the Pettitt test allow for more than one change point but have an unacceptable number of false positives. Based on the results of our methods comparisons, we used the Pettitt and the Mood tests to find change points in location and scale, respectively, in thousands of streamgage records in the conterminous United States. Change points in location (median) and scale are abundant, with the changes in median peak streamflow showing regional patterns, as well as a strong increased streamflow signal around 1970. The changes in scale of peak streamflows are dominated more by temporal than spatial patterns; more streamgages had decreases in scale in earlier decades than recent decades and more streamgages had increases in scale occurring in recent decades than earlier decades.

Journal of Hydrology↗

USGS2018

Modeling drivers of phosphorus loads in Chesapeake Bay tributaries and inferences about long-term change

Causal attribution of changes in water quality often consists of correlation, qualitative reasoning, listing references to the work of others, or speculation. To better support statements of attribution for water-quality trends, structural equation modeling was used to model the causal factors of total phosphorus loads in the Chesapeake Bay watershed. By transforming, scaling, and standardizing variables, grouping similar sites, grouping some causal factors into latent variable models, and using methods that correct for assumption violations, we developed a structural equation model to show how causal factors interact to produce total phosphorus loads. Climate (in the form of annual total precipitation and the Palmer Hydrologic Drought Index) and anthropogenic inputs are the major drivers of total phosphorus load in the Chesapeake Bay watershed. Increasing runoff due to natural climate variability is offsetting purposeful management actions that are otherwise decreasing phosphorus loading; consequently, management actions may need to be reexamined to achieve target reductions in the face of climate variability.

Chesapeake Bay↗

USGS2017

The U.S. Geological Survey Peak-Flow File Data Verification Project, 2008–16

Annual peak streamflow (peak flow) at a streamgage is defined as the maximum instantaneous flow in a water year. A water year begins on October 1 and continues through September 30 of the following year; for example, water year 2015 extends from October 1, 2014, through September 30, 2015. The accuracy, characterization, and completeness of the peak streamflow data are critical in determining flood-frequency estimates that are used daily to design water and transportation infrastructure, delineate flood-plain boundaries, and regulate development and utilization of lands throughout the United States and are essential to understanding the implications of climate and land-use change on flooding and high-flow conditions. As of November 14, 2016, peak-flow data existed for 27,240 unique streamgages in the United States and its territories. The data, collectively referred to as the “peak-flow file,” are available as part of the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) public web interface, the National Water Information System, at https://nwis.waterdata.usgs.gov/usa/nwis/peak . Although the data have been routinely subjected to periodic review by the USGS Office of Surface Water and screening at the USGS Water Science Center level, these data were not reviewed in a national, systematic manner until 2008 when automated scripts were developed and applied to detect potential errors in peak-flow values and their associated dates, gage heights, and peak-flow qualification codes, as well as qualification codes associated with the gage heights. USGS scientists and hydrographers studied the resulting output, accessed basic records and field notes, and corrected observed errors or, more commonly, confirmed existing data as correct. This report summarizes the changes in peak-flow file data at a national level, illustrates their nature and causation, and identifies the streamgages affected by these changes. Specifically, the peak-flow data were compared for streamgages with peak flow measured as of November 19, 2008 (before the automated scripts were widely applied) and on November 14, 2016 (after several rounds of corrections). There were 659,332 peak-flow values in the 2008 dataset and 731,965 peak-flow values in the 2016 dataset. When compared to the 2016 dataset, 5,179 (0.79 percent) peak-flow values had changed; 36,506 (5.54 percent) of the peak-flow qualification codes had changed; 1,938 (0.29 percent) peak-flow dates had changed; 18,599 (2.82 percent) of the peak-flow gage heights had changed; and 20,683 (3.14 percent) of the gage-height qualification codes had changed—most as a direct result of the peak-flow file data verification effort led by USGS personnel. The various types of changes are summarized and mapped in this report. In addition to this report, a corresponding USGS data release is provided to identify changes in peak flows at individual streamgages. The data release and the procedures to access the data release are described in this report.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2017

Water-quality trends in the nation’s rivers and streams, 1972–2012—Data preparation, statistical methods, and trend results

Since passage of the Clean Water Act in 1972, Federal, State, and local governments have invested billions of dollars to reduce pollution entering rivers and streams. To understand the return on these investments and to effectively manage and protect the Nation’s water resources in the future, we need to know how and why water quality has been changing over time. As part of the National Water-Quality Assessment Project, of the U.S. Geological Survey’s National Water-Quality Program, data from the U.S. Geological Survey, along with multiple other Federal, State, Tribal, regional, and local agencies, have been used to support the most comprehensive assessment conducted to date of surface-water-quality trends in the United States. This report documents the methods used to determine trends in water quality and ecology because these methods are vital to ensuring the quality of the results. Specific objectives are to document (1) the data compilation and processing steps used to identify river and stream sites throughout the Nation suitable for water-quality, pesticide, and ecology trend analysis, (2) the statistical methods used to determine trends in target parameters, (3) considerations for water-quality, pesticide, and ecology data and streamflow data when modeling trends, (4) sensitivity analyses for selecting data and interpreting trend results with the Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season method, and (5) the final trend results at each site. The scope of this study includes trends in water-quality concentrations and loads (nutrient, sediment, major ion, salinity, and carbon), pesticide concentrations and loads, and metrics for aquatic ecology (fish, invertebrates, and algae) for four time periods: (1) 1972–2012, (2) 1982–2012, (3) 1992–2012, and (4) 2002–12. In total, nearly 12,000 trends in concentration, load, and ecology metrics were evaluated in this study; there were 11,893 combinations of sites, parameters, and trend periods. The final trend results are presented with examples of how to interpret the results from each trend model. Interpretation of the trend results, such as causal analysis, is not included.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2017

Structural equation model of total phosphorus loads in the Red River of the North Basin, USA and Canada

Attribution of the causes of trends in nutrient loading is often limited to correlation, qualitative reasoning, or references to the work of others. This paper represents efforts to improve causal attribution of water-quality changes. The Red River of the North basin provides a regional test case because of international interest in the reduction of total phosphorus loads and the availability of long-term total phosphorus data and ancillary geospatial data with the potential to explain changes in water quality over time. The objectives of the study are to investigate structural equation modeling methods for application to water-quality problems and to test causal hypotheses related to the drivers of total phosphorus loads over the period 1970 to 2012. Multiple working hypotheses that explain total phosphorus loads and methods for estimating missing ancillary data were developed, and water-quality related challenges to structural equation modeling (including skewed data and scaling issues) were addressed. The model indicates that increased precipitation in season 1 (November–February) or season 2 (March–June) would increase total phosphorus loads in the basin. The effect of agricultural practices on total phosphorus loads was significant, although the effect is about one-third of the effect of season 1 precipitation. The structural equation model representing loads at six sites in the basin shows that climate and agricultural practices explain almost 60% of the annual total phosphorus load in the Red River of the North basin. The modeling process and the unexplained variance highlight the need for better ancillary long-term data for causal assessments.

Red River of the North Basin↗

USGS2016

2011 Souris River flood—Will it happen again?

The Souris River Basin is a 61,000 square kilometer basin in the provinces of Saskatchewan and Manitoba and the state of North Dakota. Record setting rains in May and June of 2011 led to record flooding with peak annual streamflow values (762 cubic meters per second [m 3 /s]) more than twice that of any previously recorded peak streamflow and more than five times the estimated 100 year postregulation streamflow (142 m 3 /s) at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) streamflow-gaging station above Minot, North Dakota. Upstream from Minot, N. Dak., the Souris River is regulated by three reservoirs in Saskatchewan (Rafferty, Boundary, and Alameda) and Lake Darling in North Dakota. During the 2011 flood, the city of Minot, N. Dak., experienced devastating damages with more than 4,000 homes flooded and 11,000 evacuated. As a result, the Souris River Basin Task Force recommended the U.S. Geological Survey (in cooperation with the North Dakota State Water Commission) develop a model for estimating the probabilities of future flooding and drought. The model that was developed took on four parts: (1) looking at past climate, (2) predicting future climate, (3) developing a streamflow model in response to certain climatic variables, and (4) combining future climate estimates with the streamflow model to predict future streamflow events. By taking into consideration historical climate record and trends in basin response to various climatic conditions, it was determined flood risk will remain high in the Souris River Basin until the wet climate state ends.

Souris River↗

USGS2016

Tree-ring-based estimates of long-term seasonal precipitation in the Souris River Region of Saskatchewan, North Dakota and Manitoba

Historically unprecedented flooding occurred in the Souris River Basin of Saskatchewan, North Dakota and Manitoba in 2011, during a longer term period of wet conditions in the basin. In order to develop a model of future flows, there is a need to evaluate effects of past multidecadal climate variability and/or possible climate change on precipitation. In this study, tree-ring chronologies and historical precipitation data in a four-degree buffer around the Souris River Basin were analyzed to develop regression models that can be used for predicting long-term variations of precipitation. To focus on longer term variability, 12-year moving average precipitation was modeled in five subregions (determined through cluster analysis of measures of precipitation) of the study area over three seasons (November–February, March–June and July–October). The models used multiresolution decomposition (an additive decomposition based on powers of two using a discrete wavelet transform) of tree-ring chronologies from Canada and the US and seasonal 12-year moving average precipitation based on Adjusted and Homogenized Canadian Climate Data and US Historical Climatology Network data. Results show that precipitation varies on long-term (multidecadal) time scales of 16, 32 and 64 years. Past extended pluvial and drought events, which can vary greatly with season and subregion, were highlighted by the models. Results suggest that the recent wet period may be a part of natural variability on a very long time scale.

Manitoba, North Dakota, Saskatchewan↗

USGS2016

Stochastic model for simulating Souris River Basin precipitation, evapotranspiration, and natural streamflow

The Souris River Basin is a 61,000-square-kilometer basin in the Provinces of Saskatchewan and Manitoba and the State of North Dakota. In May and June of 2011, record-setting rains were seen in the headwater areas of the basin. Emergency spillways of major reservoirs were discharging at full or nearly full capacity, and extensive flooding was seen in numerous downstream communities. To determine the probability of future extreme floods and droughts, the U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the North Dakota State Water Commission, developed a stochastic model for simulating Souris River Basin precipitation, evapotranspiration, and natural (unregulated) streamflow. Simulations from the model can be used in future studies to simulate regulated streamflow, design levees, and other structures; and to complete economic cost/benefit analyses. Long-term climatic variability was analyzed using tree-ring chronologies to hindcast precipitation to the early 1700s and compare recent wet and dry conditions to earlier extreme conditions. The extended precipitation record was consistent with findings from the Devils Lake and Red River of the North Basins (southeast of the Souris River Basin), supporting the idea that regional climatic patterns for many centuries have consisted of alternating wet and dry climate states. A stochastic climate simulation model for precipitation, temperature, and potential evapotranspiration for the Souris River Basin was developed using recorded meteorological data and extended precipitation records provided through tree-ring analysis. A significant climate transition was seen around1970, with 1912–69 representing a dry climate state and 1970–2011 representing a wet climate state. Although there were some distinct subpatterns within the basin, the predominant differences between the two states were higher spring through early fall precipitation and higher spring potential evapotranspiration for the wet compared to the dry state. A water-balance model was developed for simulating monthly natural (unregulated) mean streamflow based on precipitation, temperature, and potential evapotranspiration at select streamflow-gaging stations. The model was calibrated using streamflow data from the U.S. Geological Survey and Environment Canada, along with natural (unregulated) streamflow data from the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers. Correlation coefficients between simulated and natural (unregulated) flows generally were high (greater than 0.8), and the seasonal means and standard deviations of the simulated flows closely matched the means and standard deviations of the natural (unregulated) flows. After calibrating the model for a monthly time step, monthly streamflow for each subbasin was disaggregated into three values per month, or an approximately 10-day time step, and a separate routing model was developed for simulating 10-day streamflow for downstream gages. The stochastic climate simulation model for precipitation, temperature, and potential evapotranspiration was combined with the water-balance model to simulate potential future sequences of 10-day mean streamflow for each of the streamflow-gaging station locations. Flood risk, as determined by equilibrium flow-frequency distributions for the dry (1912–69) and wet (1970–2011) climate states, was considerably higher for the wet state compared to the dry state. Future flood risk will remain high until the wet climate state ends, and for several years after that, because there may be a long lag-time between the return of drier conditions and the onset of a lower soil-moisture storage equilibrium.

Manitoba, North Dakota, Saskatchewan↗

USGS2015

Changes in seasonality and timing of peak streamflow in snow and semi-arid climates of the north-central United States, 1910–2012

Changes in the seasonality and timing of annual peak streamflow in the north-central USA are likely because of changes in precipitation and temperature regimes. A source of long-term information about flood events across the study area is the U.S. Geological Survey peak streamflow database. However, one challenge of answering climate-related questions with this dataset is that even in snowmelt-dominated areas, it is a mixed population of snowmelt/spring rain generated peaks and summer/fall rain generated peaks. Therefore, a process was developed to divide the annual peaks into two populations, or seasons, snowmelt/spring, and summer/fall. The two series were then tested for the hypotheses that because of changes in precipitation regimes, the odds of summer/fall peaks have increased and, because of temperature changes, snowmelt/spring peaks happen earlier. Over climatologically and geographically similar regions in the north-central USA, logistic regression was used to model the odds of getting a summer/fall peak. When controlling for antecedent wet and dry conditions and geographical differences, the odds of summer/fall peaks occurring have increased across the study area. With respect to timing within the seasons, trend analysis showed that in northern portions of the study region, snowmelt/spring peaks are occurring earlier. The timing of snowmelt/spring peaks in three regions in the northern part of the study area is earlier by 8.7– 14.3 days. These changes have implications for water interests, such as potential changes in lead-time for flood forecasting or changes in the operation of flood-control dams.

Colorado, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Monta↗

USGS2015

Changes in total phosphorus concentration in the Red River of the North Basin, 1970-2012

The Red River of the North drains much of eastern North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota and flows north into Manitoba, Canada, ultimately into Lake Winnipeg; therefore, water quality is an International concern. With increased runoff in the past few decades, phosphorus flux (the amount of phosphorus transported by the river) has increased. This is a concern, especially with respect to Lake Winnipeg, an important inland fishery and recreational destination. There is pressure at the State and International levels to reduce phosphorus flux, an expensive proposition. Depending on the method (controlling sources, settling ponds, buffer strips), control of phosphorus flux is not always effective during spring runoff. This work represents a first step in developing a causal model for phosphorus flux by examining available data and changes in concentration over time. Total phosphorus concentration data for the Red River at Emerson, Manitoba, and at Fargo, North Dakota-Moorhead, Minnesota, were summarized and then analyzed using WRTDS (Weighted Regressions on Time, Discharge, and Season) to describe total phosphorus changes over time in two analysis periods: 1970-1993 and 1993-2012. Total phosphorus concentration increased in the first period at Emerson, Manitoba, indicating phosphorus was likely being transported to streams during runoff events. A very different pattern occurred at Fargo-Moorhead with declines in concentration, except at high discharge. While concentration continually changes, during the second period it decreased during spring runoff at Emerson and Fargo-Moorhead and during the growing season at Fargo-Moorhead, perhaps because of improved agricultural practices and declines in some uses of phosphorus.

Red River of the North Basin↗

USGS2015

Trends in pesticide concentrations and use for major rivers of the United States

Trends in pesticide concentrations in 38 major rivers of the United States were evaluated in relation to use trends for 11 commonly occurring pesticide compounds. Pesticides monitored in water were analyzed for trends in concentration in three overlapping periods, 1992–2001, 1997–2006, and 2001–2010 to facilitate comparisons among sites with variable sample distributions over time and among pesticides with changes in use during different periods and durations. Concentration trends were analyzed using the SEAWAVE-Q model, which incorporates intra-annual variability in concentration and measures of long-term, mid-term, and short-term streamflow variability. Trends in agricultural use within each of the river basins were determined using interval-censored regression with high and low estimates of use. Pesticides strongly dominated by agricultural use (cyanazine, alachlor, atrazine and its degradate deethylatrazine, metolachlor, and carbofuran) had widespread agreement between concentration trends and use trends. Pesticides with substantial use in both agricultural and nonagricultural applications (simazine, chlorpyrifos, malathion, diazinon, and carbaryl) had concentration trends that were mostly explained by a combination of agricultural-use trends, regulatory changes, and urban use changes inferred from concentration trends in urban streams. When there were differences, concentration trends usually were greater than use trends (increased more or decreased less). These differences may occur because of such factors as unaccounted pesticide uses, delayed transport to the river through groundwater, greater uncertainty in the use data, or unquantified land use and management practice changes.

Science of the Total Environment↗

USGS2014

Pesticides in U.S. streams and rivers: occurrence and trends during 1992-2011

During the 20 years from 1992 to 2011, pesticides were found at concentrations that exceeded aquatic-life benchmarks in many rivers and streams that drain agricultural, urban, and mixed-land use watersheds. Overall, the proportions of assessed streams with one or more pesticides that exceeded an aquatic-life benchmark were very similar between the two decades for agricultural (69% during 1992−2001 compared to 61% during 2002−2011) and mixed-land-use streams (45% compared to 46%). Urban streams, in contrast, increased from 53% during 1992−2011 to 90% during 2002−2011, largely because of fipronil and dichlorvos. The potential for adverse effects on aquatic life is likely greater than these results indicate because potentially important pesticide compounds were not included in the assessment. Human-health benchmarks were much less frequently exceeded, and during 2002−2011, only one agricultural stream and no urban or mixed-land-use streams exceeded human-health benchmarks for any of the measured pesticides. Widespread trends in pesticide concentrations, some downward and some upward, occurred in response to shifts in use patterns primarily driven by regulatory changes and introductions of new pesticides.

Environmental Science & Technology↗

USGS2014

Impact of climate variability on runoff in the north-central United States

Large changes in runoff in the north-central United States have occurred during the past century, with larger floods and increases in runoff tending to occur from the 1970s to the present. The attribution of these changes is a subject of much interest. Long-term precipitation, temperature, and streamflow records were used to compare changes in precipitation and potential evapotranspiration (PET) to changes in runoff within 25 stream basins. The basins studied were organized into four groups, each one representing basins similar in topography, climate, and historic patterns of runoff. Precipitation, PET, and runoff data were adjusted for near-decadal scale variability to examine longer-term changes. A nonlinear water-balance analysis shows that changes in precipitation and PET explain the majority of multidecadal spatial/temporal variability of runoff and flood magnitudes, with precipitation being the dominant driver. Historical changes in climate and runoff in the region appear to be more consistent with complex transient shifts in seasonal climatic conditions than with gradual climate change. A portion of the unexplained variability likely stems from land-use change.

Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North↗

USGS2014

Pesticide trends in major rivers of the United States, 1992-2010

This report is part of a series of pesticide trend assessments led by the National Water-Quality Assessment Program of the U.S. Geological Survey. This assessment focuses on major rivers of various sizes throughout the United States that have large watersheds with a range of land uses, changes in pesticide use, changes in management practices, and natural influences typical of the regions being drained. Trends were assessed at 59 sites for 40 pesticides and pesticide degradates during each of three overlapping periods: 1992–2001, 1997–2006, and 2001–10. In addition to trends in concentration, trends in agricultural-use intensity (agricultural use) were also assessed at 57 of the sites for 35 parent compounds with agricultural uses during the same three periods. The SEAWAVE-Q model was used to analyze trends in concentration, and parametric survival regression for interval-censored data was used to assess trends in agricultural use. All trends are provided in downloadable electronic files. A subset of 39 sites was chosen to represent non-nested, generally independent basins for a national analysis of pesticide and agricultural-use trends for the most prevalent pesticides (15 pesticides and 2 degradation products). Graphical and numerical results are presented to provide a national overview of concentration and use trends. As another perspective on understanding pesticide concentration trends in large rivers in relation to multiple tributary watersheds, this report also presents a detailed assessment of concentration and use trends for simazine, metolachlor, atrazine, deethylatrazine, and diazinon for a set of 17 nested sites in the Mississippi River Basin (including the Ohio and Missouri River Basins), for the second and third trend periods. Pesticides strongly dominated by agricultural use—cyanazine, metolachlor, atrazine, and alachlor—had widespread agreement between concentration trends and agricultural-use trends. Pesticides with substantial use in agricultural and urban applications—simazine, tebuthiuron, Dacthal, pendimethalin, chlorpyrifos, malathion, diazinon, fipronil, carbofuran, and carbaryl—had concentration trends that were mostly explained by a combination of agricultural-use trends and concentration trends in urban streams that were evaluated in a separate companion study. The importance of the urban stream trends for explaining concentration trends in major rivers indicates the significance of nonagricultural uses of some pesticides to concentrations in major rivers despite the much smaller area of urban land use compared to agriculture. Deethylatrazine, a degradate of atrazine, was the only pesticide compound assessed that had frequent occurrences during 1997–2006 and 2001–10 of concentration trends in the opposite direction of use trends (atrazine use). The nested analysis for the Mississippi River indicates that most trends observed in the largest rivers—multiple Mississippi River sites, the Ohio River, and the Missouri River—are consistent with streamflow contributions and concentration trends observed at tributary sites. Streamflow (incorporated into the trend model and shown in the nested basin analysis), trends in agricultural use of pesticides (quantified in this report), and urban use of pesticides (represented by concentration trends in a companion study of urban streams) are all important influences on pesticide concentrations in streams and rivers. Consideration of these influences is vital to understanding trends in pesticide concentrations.

Scientific Investigations Report↗

USGS2013

Monitoring and understanding changes in heat waves, cold waves, floods, and droughts in the United States: State of knowledge

Weather and climate extremes have been varying and changing on many different time scales. In recent decades, heat waves have generally become more frequent across the United States, while cold waves have been decreasing. While this is in keeping with expectations in a warming climate, it turns out that decadal variations in the number of U.S. heat and cold waves do not correlate well with the observed U.S. warming during the last century. Annual peak flow data reveal that river flooding trends on the century scale do not show uniform changes across the country. While flood magnitudes in the Southwest have been decreasing, flood magnitudes in the Northeast and north-central United States have been increasing. Confounding the analysis of trends in river flooding is multiyear and even multidecadal variability likely caused by both large-scale atmospheric circulation changes and basin-scale “memory” in the form of soil moisture. Droughts also have long-term trends as well as multiyear and decadal variability. Instrumental data indicate that the Dust Bowl of the 1930s and the drought in the 1950s were the most significant twentieth-century droughts in the United States, while tree ring data indicate that the megadroughts over the twelfth century exceeded anything in the twentieth century in both spatial extent and duration. The state of knowledge of the factors that cause heat waves, cold waves, floods, and drought to change is fairly good with heat waves being the best understood.

Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society↗