Geology topics

Karen M. Alofs

Publications and source records attributed to Karen M. Alofs.

8 recordsLinked to original sources

USGS2026

Spawning habitat suitability models for Lake Erie cisco (Coregonus artedi) during the historical period of pre- and post-population declines 1877–1957

Coregonine fishes play a key role in the food webs and fisheries of the Laurentian Great Lakes and are a major focus of basin-wide conservation efforts. In Lake Erie, management goals prioritize rebuilding spawning populations of cisco ( Coregonus artedi ). However, the historical distribution of cisco spawning habitat and the environmental conditions that influence early life-stage success remain poorly defined. We used a novel database of historical coregonine spawning observations as well as novel habitat variables to describe historical conditions to model and determine where and what habitat was historically most suitable for spawning cisco in Lake Erie. The environmental predictors that produced the best model included reefs, distance to rivers, historical substrate, coefficient of variation of ice duration, fetch, and circulation. The highest suitability occurred in areas of high reef probability, near river mouths, in rocky and sandy substrate, and in areas of low variability in historical ice, fetch, and circulation. Suitable spawning habitat is predicted mostly around reefs in the western basin as well as along the coast and near rivers lake-wide. Our model identifies important habitat features and allows managers to envision relevant scales and locations at which to focus restoration efforts.

Lake Erie↗

USGS2026

Two hundred years of historical spawning and nursery data for coregonine fishes in the Laurentian Great Lakes

Historical data can provide critical ecological information for species across the globe, many of which are facing unprecedented rates of ecosystem change. Yet, historical information related to freshwater species, especially fishes, remains scattered, often in original formats, and underutilized for informing conservation and restoration activities. Here, we present a Data Descriptor called Coregonine Spawning History (CORHIST), a database designed to house diverse data related to past spawning and nursery areas for fishes in the family Salmonidae, subfamily Coregoninae (ciscoes and whitefishes), in the Laurentian Great Lakes and their tributaries. Data for 11 species of coregonines historically occurring in the Great Lakes are included in CORHIST. Over 3,400 occurrence records at the coordinate scale have been entered, over 2,200 of which are for Cisco ( Coregonus artedi ) and Lake Whitefish ( C. clupeaformis )—two focal species for which there is either multinational conservation interest or restoration efforts underway in the Laurentian Great Lakes. CORHIST is already proving useful for several studies developing habitat suitability models and delineating spatial units for conservation or restoration planning.

Laurentian Great Lakes↗

USGS2026

Adaptive capacity of freshwater organisms in North America: Current understanding and future applications

Freshwater species are increasingly threatened by climate change, yet our ability to assess their vulnerability remains incomplete. Typically, climate change vulnerability assessments (CCVAs) evaluate three components: exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity. Adaptive capacity, defined as the ability of a species to adjust to changing conditions, provides critical insight into how species may persist under future scenarios and can strengthen conservation planning by highlighting opportunities for resilience and targeted management strategies. Trait-based approaches offer a promising path for managers to operationalize adaptive capacity by identifying measurable biological and ecological traits that influence climate change response strategies. However, these insights are rarely integrated into broader vulnerability frameworks that support conservation decision making. We build on previous research to synthesize current understanding of adaptive capacity for three freshwater taxa in North America: fishes, mussels, and crayfishes. Our objectives were to: (1) assess the relevance of adaptive capacity factors for fishes, mussels, and crayfishes; (2) identify key opportunities and gaps in linking trait-based information into adaptive capacity assessments; and (3) illustrate how incorporating adaptive capacity can enhance management decisions for freshwater species under climate change. We used an expert workshop, literature review, and case studies to identify relevant adaptive capacity factors, assess available information, and evaluate inclusion in management contexts. We found that all three taxa had sufficient information to inform adaptive capacity assessments. In addition to existing adaptive capacity factors, we identified Morphology as an important yet underutilized cross-cutting diagnostic category when information was limited. By explicitly linking trait-based approaches with adaptive capacity frameworks, we offer practical guidance for improving climate adaptation strategies and prioritizing management actions for freshwater biodiversity under accelerating global change.

Global Change Biology Communications↗

USGS2026

Reconstructing Great Lakes air temperature and ice dynamics data back to 1897

Ice cover on the Great Lakes plays an important role in regional climate, supports tourism and recreation, and provides ecological habitat. As the climate warms, ice cover in the Great Lakes is expected to decline, which in turn will create more lake effect precipitation, reduce ice cover for recreation, and alter habitat for aquatic species. While it is important to understand the historical ice patterns to better understand past distributions of aquatic species and improve the accuracy of forecasts for future ice cover on the lakes, Great Lakes ice cover data prior to 1973 is scarce, due to the limited routine satellite observations. We used weather station data around the Great Lakes to compile daily air temperature, calculate cumulative freezing degree-days and net melting degree-days from 1897–2023, and develop raster layers estimating ice duration and variability spatially during the historical period from 1897–1960.

Great Lakes↗

USGS2023

Evidence for the importance of invasive Dreissena veligers as a novel prey item for larval fish in Lake Huron

The establishment of invasive dreissenid mussels Dreissena polymorpha and Dreissena rostriformis bugensis in the Laurentian Great Lakes has affected multiple aspects of the ecosystem. However, the effects of their larvae (veligers) on lower trophic levels are relatively unknown. Previous research has documented that some larval fishes consume veligers, but it is unclear if they select for veligers. To assess the role of veligers in larval fish diets in Lake Huron, we examined the diets of larval burbot Lota lota , rainbow smelt Osmerus mordax , and Coregonus spp., mainly bloater Coregonus hoyi , sampled in July of 2017. Preference for available zooplankton prey was evaluated using Vanderploeg and Scavia’s E*. Results indicated that veligers were on average avoided by large larval burbot, rainbow smelt, and coregonines but were sometimes preferred by small (< 7 mm) and medium-sized (7–10 mm) larval burbot. A mixed model analyzing factors contributing to veliger preference by larval burbot indicated that greater environmental zooplankton prey size is associated with more positive preference for veligers. Thus, veligers may be important for gape-limited larval fish. We also found that, on average, larval burbot and coregonines consumed larger veligers than those sampled in the environment. Overall, consideration of larval fishes’ ability to exploit veligers could help managers to understand the role of dreissenid mussels in Great Lakes food webs.

Lake Huron↗

USGS2023

A science and management partnership to restore coregonine diversity to the Laurentian Great Lakes

Similar to many freshwater ecosystems, the Laurentian Great Lakes of North America have undergone numerous anthropogenic stressors resulting in considerable loss of biodiversity and habitat. Among Great Lakes fishes, the coregonine sub-family has endured the most extensive declines, including extinction of several species ( Coregonus johannae, C. alpenae , and C. kiyi orientalis ) and at least 10 instances of local extirpations of other species ( C. nigripinnis, C. reighardi, C. zenithicus, C. hoyi , and C. artedi ) across all 5 lakes, much of which occurred prior to the 1960s owing to overfishing, interactions with non-indigenous species, and habitat loss. Despite these declines, no federal-, provincial-, or state-mandated actions were ever implemented to conserve coregonine diversity, potentially because so much of the coregonine declines occurred prior to the enactment of federal conservation legislation. Possible explanations for inaction since enactment of that legislation include insufficient data on biological vulnerability or threats, unresolved taxonomy, and limited support from the fishery management agencies and their stakeholders prior to the 2000s. In recent decades, however, several fishery management agencies have undertaken efforts to re-introduce coregonine diversity. These efforts helped lead to development of a science-based framework to restore coregonines that was universally endorsed by fishery managers representing eight U.S. states, four U.S. tribal organizations, and the province of ON, Canada, in May 2018. The basin-wide framework is based on principles of conservation biology and adaptive management. We describe details of its key steps, including planning, restoring, and evaluating, while also describing recent implementation efforts to develop methods, improve available resources, and enhance coordination across the basin. Although our paper describes a regional effort to restore native coregonines, our adaptive-management approach could be used by other multi-agency stakeholders seeking to conserve or restore native fishes.

Laurentian Great Lakes↗

USGS2023

Gap analysis: A proposed methodology to describe and map historical and contemporary populations and habitats

This is a methodology paper that describes an approach for modeling and mapping historical and contemporary spawning areas for coregonine fishes in the Laurentian Great Lakes. Coregonines are a family of native whitefishes and ciscoes that are now greatly reduced or extirpated, but once served important roles for both the food web and society. This method can illustrate where habitats once existed and where they are today - critical information for restoration and conservation actions.

Great Lakes↗

USGS2022

Predicting larval alewife transport in Lake Michigan using hydrodynamic and Lagrangian particle dispersion models

Several species of fish in large lakes and marine environments have a pelagic larval stage, and are subject to variable transport that can ultimately regulate survival and recruitment success. Alewife, Alosa pseudoharengus , are subject to transport by complex coastal currents during their pelagic larval stage (~ 30 d). We assessed backward-trajectory simulations, consisting of a Lagrangian particle dispersion model linked to the Finite Volume Community Ocean Model, to estimate likely hatch locations of aged larval alewife collected from locations on both the eastern and western sides of Lake Michigan during July 2015. We used four deployments of three satellite-tracked drifter buoys in coastal waters to assess model skill in estimating the origin of a drifter from its final location. We found that the trajectories of drifters varied greatly, depending on wind events and associated coastal transport processes, including upwelling/downwelling and coastal jet currents. In 2 of 12 cases, the backward trajectory simulations failed to predict the drifter origin, associated with transport of 170 km in a narrow coastal jet current. In the remaining 10 cases, the known drifter origin was within 3.5 km of the spatial patch of predicted possible origins for a scenario of horizontal diffusivity (188 m 2 s −1 ) consistent with the offshore model grid resolution. Modeled backward trajectories estimated that alewife originated from the same side of the lake where they were collected, within ~ 100 km of the collection site. Our paper demonstrates the utility of hydrodynamic models to estimate a region of origin for aged larval fish.

Lake Michigan↗