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Karen C. Rice

Publications and source records attributed to Karen C. Rice.

At least 37 records · Page 2Linked to original sources
USGS2012

Assessment of salinity intrusion in the James and Chickahominy Rivers as a result of simulated sea-level rise in Chesapeake Bay, East Coast, USA

Global sea level is rising, and the relative rate in the Chesapeake Bay region of the East Coast of the United States is greater than the worldwide rate. Sea-level rise can cause saline water to migrate upstream in estuaries and rivers, threatening freshwater habitat and drinking-water supplies. The effects of future sea-level rise on two tributaries of Chesapeake Bay, the James and Chickahominy (CHK) Rivers, were evaluated in order to quantify the salinity change with respect to the magnitude of sea-level rise. Such changes are critical to: 1) local floral and faunal habitats that have limited tolerance ranges to salinity; and 2) a drinking-water supply for the City of Newport News, Virginia. By using the three-dimensional Hydrodynamic-Eutrophication Model (HEM-3D), sea-level rise scenarios of 30, 50, and 100 cm, based on the U.S. Climate Change Science Program for the mid-Atlantic region for the 21st century, were evaluated. The model results indicate that salinity increases in the entire river as sea level rises and that the salinity increase in a dry year is greater than that in a typical year. In the James River, the salinity increase in the middle-to-upper river (from 25 to 50 km upstream of the mouth) is larger than that in the lower and upper parts of the river. The maximum mean salinity increase would be 2 and 4 ppt for a sea-level rise of 50 and 100 cm, respectively. The upstream movement of the 10 ppt isohaline is much larger than the 5 and 20 ppt isohalines. The volume of water with salinity between 10 and 20 ppt would increase greatly if sea level rises 100 cm. In the CHK River, with a sea-level rise of 100 cm, the mean salinity at the drinking-water intake 34 km upstream of the mouth would be about 3 ppt in a typical year and greater than 5 ppt in a dry year, both far in excess of the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's secondary standard for total dissolved solids for drinking water. At the drinking-water intake, the number of days of salinity greater than 0.1 ppt increases with increasing sea-level rise; during a dry year, 0.1 ppt would be exceeded for more than 100 days with as small a rise as 30 cm.

Newport News↗
USGS2012

Spatial and temporal trends in runoff at long-term streamgages within and near the Chesapeake Bay Watershed

Long-term streamflow data within the Chesapeake Bay watershed and surrounding area were analyzed in an attempt to identify trends in streamflow. Data from 30 streamgages near and within the Chesapeake Bay watershed were selected from 1930 through 2010 for analysis. Streamflow data were converted to runoff and trend slopes in percent change per decade were calculated. Trend slopes for three runoff statistics (the 7-day minimum, the mean, and the 1-day maximum) were analyzed annually and seasonally. The slopes also were analyzed both spatially and temporally. The spatial results indicated that trend slopes in the northern half of the watershed were generally greater than those in the southern half. The temporal analysis was done by splitting the 80-year flow record into two subsets; records for 28 streamgages were analyzed for 1930 through 1969 and records for 30 streamgages were analyzed for 1970 through 2010. The mean of the data for all sites for each year were plotted so that the following datasets were analyzed: the 7-day minimum runoff for the north, the 7-day minimum runoff for the south, the mean runoff for the north, the mean runoff for the south, the 1-day maximum runoff for the north, and the 1-day maximum runoff for the south. Results indicated that the period 1930 through 1969 was statistically different from the period 1970 through 2010. For the 7-day minimum runoff and the mean runoff, the latter period had significantly higher streamflow than did the earlier period, although within those two periods no significant linear trends were identified. For the 1-day maximum runoff, no step trend or linear trend could be shown to be statistically significant for the north, although the south showed a mixture of an upward step trend accompanied by linear downtrends within the periods. In no case was a change identified that indicated an increasing rate of change over time, and no general pattern was identified of hydrologic conditions becoming "more extreme" over time.

Maryland, New York, Pennsylvania, Virginia, West V↗
USGS2012

Evaluation of Bayesian estimation of a hidden continuous-time Markov chain model with application to threshold violation in water-quality indicators

Natural resource managers require information concerning the frequency, duration, and long-term probability of occurrence of water-quality indicator (WQI) violations of defined thresholds. The timing of these threshold crossings often is hidden from the observer, who is restricted to relatively infrequent observations. Here, a model for the hidden process is linked with a model for the observations, and the parameters describing duration, return period, and long-term probability of occurrence are estimated using Bayesian methods. A simulation experiment is performed to evaluate the approach under scenarios based on the equivalent of a total monitoring period of 5-30 years and an observation frequency of 1-50 observations per year. Given constant threshold crossing rate, accuracy and precision of parameter estimates increased with longer total monitoring period and more-frequent observations. Given fixed monitoring period and observation frequency, accuracy and precision of parameter estimates increased with longer times between threshold crossings. For most cases where the long-term probability of being in violation is greater than 0.10, it was determined that at least 600 observations are needed to achieve precise estimates. An application of the approach is presented using 22 years of quasi-weekly observations of acid-neutralizing capacity from Deep Run, a stream in Shenandoah National Park, Virginia. The time series also was sub-sampled to simulate monthly and semi-monthly sampling protocols. Estimates of the long-term probability of violation were unbiased despite sampling frequency; however, the expected duration and return period were over-estimated using the sub-sampled time series with respect to the full quasi-weekly time series.

Journal of Environmental Informatics↗
USGS2011

Simulated changes in salinity in the York and Chickahominy Rivers from projected sea-level rise in Chesapeake Bay

As a result of climate change and variability, sea level is rising throughout the world, but the rate along the east coast of the United States is higher than the global mean rate. The U.S. Geological Survey, in cooperation with the City of Newport News, Virginia, conducted a study to evaluate the effects of possible future sea-level rise on the salinity front in two tributaries to Chesapeake Bay, the York River, and the Chickahominy/James River estuaries. Numerical modeling was used to represent sea-level rise and the resulting hydrologic effects. Estuarine models for the two tributaries were developed and model simulations were made by use of the Three-Dimensional Hydrodynamic-Eutrophication Model (HEM-3D), developed by the Virginia Institute of Marine Science. HEM-3D was used to simulate tides, tidal currents, and salinity for Chesapeake Bay, the York River and the Chickahominy/James River. The three sea-level rise scenarios that were evaluated showed an increase of 30, 50, and 100 centimeters (cm). Model results for both estuaries indicated that high freshwater river flow was effective in pushing the salinity back toward Chesapeake Bay. Model results indicated that increases in mean salinity will greatly alter the existing water-quality gradients between brackish water and freshwater. This will be particularly important for the freshwater part of the Chickahominy River, where a drinking-water-supply intake for the City of Newport News is located. Significant changes in the salinity gradients for the York River and Chickahominy/James River estuaries were predicted for the three sea-level rise scenarios. When a 50-cm sea-level rise scenario on the York River during a typical year (2005) was used, the model simulation showed a salinity of 15 parts per thousand (ppt) at river kilometer (km) 39. During a dry year (2002), the same salinity (15 ppt) was simulated at river km 45, which means that saltwater was shown to migrate 6 km farther upstream during a dry year than a typical year. The same was true of the Chickahominy River for a 50-cm sea-level rise scenario but to a greater extent; a salinity of 4 ppt was simulated at river km 13 during a typical year and at river km 28 during a dry year, indicating that saltwater migrated 15 km farther upstream during a dry year. Near a drinking-water intake on the Chickahominy River, for a dry year, salinity is predicted to more than double for all three sea-level rise scenarios, relative to a typical year. During a typical year at this location, salinity is predicted to increase to 0.006, 0.07, and more than 2 ppt for the 30-, 50-, and 100-cm rise scenarios, respectively.

Virginia↗
USGS2010

Comparison of episodic acidification of Mid-Atlantic Upland and Coastal Plain streams

Episodic acidification was examined in five mid-Atlantic watersheds representing three physiographic provinces: Coastal Plain, Valley and Ridge, and Blue Ridge. Each of the watersheds receives a similar loading of atmospheric pollutants (SO 4 2− and NO 3 − ) and is underlain by different bedrock type. The purpose of this research was to quantify and compare the episodic variability in storm flow chemistry in Reedy Creek, Virginia (Coastal Plain), Mill Run and Shelter Run, Virginia (Valley and Ridge), and Fishing Creek Tributary and Hunting Creek, Maryland (Blue Ridge). Because episodic responses were similar from storm to storm in each of the watersheds, a representative storm from each watershed was discussed. Acidification, defined as the loss of acid-neutralizing capacity (ANC), was observed in all streams except Mill Run. Mill Run chemistry showed little episodic variability. During storms in the other streams, p H decreased while SO 4 2− , NO 3 − , and K + concentrations increased. Concentrations of Mg 2+ and Ca 2+ increased in Reedy Creek and Fishing Creek Tributary, but decreased in Shelter Run and Hunting Creek. Therefore the net effect of episodic changes on the acid-base status differed among the streams. In general, greater losses of ANC were observed during storms at Shelter Run and Hunting Creek, watersheds underlain by reactive bedrock (carbonate, metabasalt); comparatively smaller losses in ANC were observed at Reedy Creek and Fishing Creek Tributary, watersheds underlain by quartzites and unconsolidated quartz sands and cobbles. Increased SO 4 2− concentrations were most important during storms at Reedy Creek and Fishing Creek Tributary, but organic anions (inferred by anion deficit) were also a factor in causing the loss of ANC. Dilution of base cations was the most important factor in the loss of ANC at Shelter Run. Both increased sulfate and dilution of base flow were important in causing the episodic acidification at Hunting Creek. The role of SO 4 2− in contributing to episodic acidification in these watersheds is similar to that documented in studies conducted in other regions of the United States, Scandinavia, Canada, and the United Kingdom. The importance of SO 4 2− in mid-Atlantic United States streams contrasts with northeastern United States streams, in which increased NO 3 - derived from snowpack is more important in causing episodic acidification. Results support the importance of shallow subsurface processes in determining storm flow chemistry, regional climatic characteristics in determining the different sources of acidity during episodes, and the importance of bedrock geology in determining the amount of ANC loss.

Maryland, Virginia, West Virginia↗
USGS2008

The occurrence of glyphosate, atrazine, and other pesticides in vernal pools and adjacent streams in Washington, DC, Maryland, Iowa, and Wyoming, 2005-2006

Vernal pools are sensitive environments that provide critical habitat for many species, including amphibians. These small water bodies are not always protected by pesticide label requirements for no-spray buffer zones, and the occurrence of pesticides in them is poorly documented. In this study, we investigated the occurrence of glyphosate, its primary degradation product aminomethylphosphonic acid, and additional pesticides in vernal pools and adjacent flowing waters. Most sampling sites were chosen to be in areas where glyphosate was being used either in production agriculture or for nonindigenous plant control. The four site locations were in otherwise protected areas (e.g., in a National Park). When possible, water samples were collected both before and after glyphosate application in 2005 and 2006. Twenty-eight pesticides or pesticide degradation products were detected in the study, and as many as 11 were identified in individual samples. Atrazine was detected most frequently and concentrations exceeded the freshwater aquatic life standard of 1.8 micrograms per liter (μg/l) in samples from Rands Ditch and Browns Ditch in DeSoto National Wildlife Refuge. Glyphosate was measured at the highest concentration (328 μg/l) in a sample from Riley Spring Pond in Rock Creek National Park. This concentration exceeded the freshwater aquatic life standard for glyphosate of 65 μg/l. Aminomethylphosphonic acid, triclopyr, and nicosulfuron also were detected at concentrations greater than 3.0 μg/l.

Iowa, Maryland, Washington D.C., Wyoming↗
USGS2008

Water-quality data at amphibian research sites in Maryland, Washington, D.C., and Virginia, 2005-2007

Data on the chemical composition of water were collected at least once from 47 amphibian research sites in Maryland, Washington, D.C., and Virginia, from 2005 through 2007. One hundred twenty-five water samples were collected from vernal pools and streams and analyzed as part of long-term monitoring projects of the U.S. Geological Survey Amphibian Research and Monitoring Initiative in the Northeast Region. Field measurements of water temperature, specific conductance, and pH were made. Laboratory analyses of the water samples included acid-neutralizing capacity, total Kjeldahl nitrogen (ammonium plus organic nitrogen), nitrite plus nitrate, total nitrogen, and total phosphorus concentrations. Field and laboratory analytical results of water samples and quality-assurance data are presented.

Maryland, Virginia, Washington, D.C.↗
USGS2007

Acid rain in Shenandoah National Park, Virginia

Visitors to Shenandoah National Park (SNP) enjoy the animal and plant life and the scenery but may not realize how vulnerable these features are to various threats, such as invasion of exotic plants and insects, improper use of park resources by humans, and air and water pollution. The National Park Service strives to protect natural resources from such threats to ensure that the resources will be available for enjoyment now and in the future. Because SNP has limited influence over the air pollution that envelops the region, acidic deposition--commonly known as acid rain--is one of the more challenging threats facing park managers. With the help of U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) scientists, park managers can understand how acid rain interacts with ground- and surface-water resources, which enables them to explain why reductions in air pollution can help preserve park resources. Such understanding also provides essential insight into ecosystem processes, as managers strive to unravel and resolve other environmental problems that are interrelated to acid rain.

Virginia↗
USGS2007

Mystery solved: White deposit on streambeds proves to be diatoms

In the late winter and early spring of 2006 an unusual white deposit was observed on rocks and margins of streambeds in a number of park streams. Inquiries were made to park staff and scientists studying water resources in the park as to what the deposit was and did it pose any type of risk. A number of explanations were proposed, but it was not until samples were collected and examined with a scanning electron microscope that the identity of the deposit was definitively determined.

Virginia↗
USGS2006

Time series and recurrence interval models to predict the vulnerability of streams to episodic acidification in Shenandoah National Park, Virginia

Acid rain affects headwater streams by temporarily reducing the acid‐neutralizing capacity (ANC) of the water, a process termed episodic acidification. The increase in acidic components in stream water can have deleterious effects on the aquatic biota. Although acidic deposition is uniform across Shenandoah National Park (SNP) in north central Virginia, the stream water quality response during rain events varies substantially. This response is a function of the catchment's underlying geology and topography. Geologic and topographic data for SNP's 231 catchments are readily available; however, long‐term measurements (tens of years) of ANC and accompanying discharge are not and would be prohibitively expensive to collect. Transfer function time series models were developed to predict hourly ANC from discharge for five SNP catchments with long‐term water‐quality and discharge records. Hourly ANC predictions over short time periods (≤1 week) were averaged, and distributions of the recurrence intervals of annual water‐year minimum ANC values were model‐simulated for periods of 6, 24, 72, and 168 hours. The distributions were extrapolated to the rest of the SNP catchments on the basis of catchment geology and topography. On the basis of the models, large numbers of SNP streams have 6‐ to 168‐hour periods of low‐ANC values, which may stress resident fish populations. Smaller catchments are more vulnerable to episodic acidification than larger catchments underlain by the same bedrock. Catchments with similar topography and size are more vulnerable if underlain by less basaltic/carbonate bedrock. Many catchments are predicted to have successive years of low‐ANC values potentially sufficient to extirpate some species.

Virginia↗
USGS2006

Predicting the vulnerability of streams to episodic acidification and potential effects on aquatic biota in Shenandoah National Park, Virginia

Acidic deposition is one of the most serious environmental problems affecting Shenandoah National Park in north-central Virginia. The park is the third most contaminated park in the National Park System because of the deposition of acid rain. Acid rain affects headwater streams in the park by temporarily reducing the acid-neutralizing capacity (ANC) of the water, a process termed episodic acidification. In turn, the increase in acidic components in streamwater can have deleterious effects on the aquatic biota. Although acidic deposition to the park is relatively uniform across its land area, the water-quality response of streamwater during rain events varies substantially. This response is a function of the underlying geology and topographic attributes of watersheds. Geologic and topographic data for the park's 231 watersheds are readily available; however, long-term (years and tens of years) measurements of streamwater ANC and accompanying discharge are not and would be prohibitively expensive to collect. Modeled predictions of the vulnerability of the park's streams to episodic acidification are an alternative to long-term water-quality monitoring. These predictions can aid park officials in making management decisions.

Virginia↗
USGS2005

Transmission of atmospherically derived trace elements through an undeveloped, forested Maryland watershed

The transmission of atmospherically derived trace elements (Al, As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Fe, Mn, Ni, Pb, Se, and Zn) was evaluated in a small, undeveloped, forested watershed located in north-central Maryland. Atmospheric input was determined for wet-only and vegetative throughfall components. Annual throughfall fluxes were significantly enriched over incident precipitation for most elements, although some elements exhibited evidence of canopy release (Mn) or preferential uptake (As, Cr, and Se). Stream export was gauged based on systematic sampling under varied flow regimes. Particle loading appears to contribute significantly to watershed export (> 10%) for only As, Pb, and Fe, and then only during large precipitation/runoff events. The degree of watershed transmission for each trace element was evaluated based on a comparison of total, net atmospheric input (throughfall) to stream export over an annual hydrologic cycle. This comparison indicates that the atmospheric input of some elements (Al, Cd, Ni, Zn) is effectively transmitted through the watershed, but other elements (Pb, As, Se, Fe, Cr, Cu) appear to be strongly sequestered, in the respective orders noted. Results suggest that precipitation and subsequent soil pH are the primary factors that determine the mobility of sequestered trace element phases. To further resolve primary atmospheric and secondary weathering components, the geochemical model NETPATH was applied. Results indicate that minerals dissolved include chlorite, plagioclase feldspar, epidote, and potassium feldspar; phases formed were kaolinite, pyrite, and silica. The model also indicates that weathering processes contribute negligible amounts of trace elements to stream export, indicative of the unreactive orthoquartzite bedrock lithology underlying the watershed. Thus, the stream export of trace elements primarily reflects atmospheric deposition to the local watershed.

Maryland↗
USGS2005

Stream salamander species richness and abundance in relation to environmental factors in Shenandoah National Park, Virginia

Stream salamanders are sensitive to acid mine drainage and may be sensitive to acidification and low acid neutralizing capacity (ANC) of a watershed. Streams in Shenandoah National Park, Virginia, are subject to episodic acidification from precipitation events. We surveyed 25 m by 2 m transects located on the stream bank adjacent to the water channel in Shenandoah National Park for salamanders using a stratified random sampling design based on elevation, aspect and bedrock geology. We investigated the relationships of four species ( Eurycea bislineata , Desmognathus fuscus , D. monticola and Gyrinophilus porphyriticus ) to habitat and water quality variables. We did not find overwhelming evidence that stream salamanders are affected by the acid-base status of streams in Shenandoah National Park. Desmognathus fuscus and D. monticola abundance was greater both in streams that had a higher potential to neutralize acidification, and in higher elevation (>700 m) streams. Neither abundance of E. bislineata nor species richness were related to any of the habitat variables. Our sampling method preferentially detected the adult age class of the study species and did not allow us to estimate population sizes. We suggest that continued monitoring of stream salamander populations in SNP will determine the effects of stream acidification on these taxa.

Virginia↗
USGS2005

Water-quality data from ground- and surface-water sites near concentrated animal feeding operations (CAFOs) and non-CAFOs in the Shenandoah Valley and eastern shore of Virginia, January-February, 2004

Concentrated animal feeding operations (CAFOs) result from the consolidation of small farms with animals into larger operations, leading to a higher density of animals per unit of land on CAFOs than on small farms. The density of animals and subsequent concentration of animal wastes potentially can cause contamination of nearby ground and surface waters. This report summarizes water-quality data collected from agricultural sites in the Shenandoah Valley and Eastern Shore of Virginia. Five sites, three non-CAFO and two dairy-operation CAFO sites, were sampled in the Shenandoah Valley. Four sites, one non-CAFO and three poultry-operation CAFO sites were sampled on the Eastern Shore. All samples were collected during January and February 2004. Water samples were analyzed for the following parameters and constituents: temperature, specific conductance, pH, and dissolved oxygen; concentrations of the indicator organisms Escherichia coli ( E. coli ) and enterococci; bacterial isolates of E. coli , enterococci, Salmonella spp., and Campylobacter spp.; sensitivity to antibiotics of E. coli , enterococci, and Salmonella spp.; arsenic, cadmium, chromium 3+ , copper, nickel, and mercury; hardness, biological oxygen demand, nitrate, nitrite, ammonia, ortho-phosphate, total Kjeldahl nitrogen, chemical oxygen demand, total organic carbon, and dissolved organic carbon; and 45 dissolved organic compounds, which included a suite of antibiotic compounds. Data are presented in tables 5-21 and results of analyses of replicate samples are presented in tables 22-28. A summary of the data in tables 5-8 and 18-21 is included in the report.

Virginia↗
USGS2004

Interpretation of concentration‐discharge patterns in acid‐neutralizing capacity during storm flow in three small, forested catchments in Shenandoah National Park, Virginia

Episodic concentration‐discharge ( c‐Q ) plots are a popular tool for interpreting the hydrochemical response of small, forested catchments. Application of the method involves assuming an underlying conceptual model of runoff processes and comparing observed c‐Q looping patterns with those predicted by the model. We analyzed and interpreted c‐Q plots of acid‐neutralizing capacity (ANC) for 133 storms collected over a 7‐year period from three catchments in Shenandoah National Park, Virginia. Because of their underlying lithologies the catchments represent a gradient in both hydrologic and geochemical behavior, ranging from a flashy, acidic, poorly buffered catchment to a moderate, neutral, well‐buffered catchment. The relative frequency of observed anticlockwise c‐Q loops in each catchment decreased along this gradient. Discriminant function analysis indicated that prestorm base flow ANC was an important predictor of loop rotation direction; however, the strength of the predictive relationship decreased along the same gradient. The trends were consistent with several equally plausible three‐component mixing models. Uncertainty regarding end‐member timing and relative volume and possible time variation in end‐member concentrations were key factors precluding identification of a unique model. The inconclusive results obtained on this large data set suggest that identification of underlying runoff mechanisms on the basis of a small number of c‐Q plots without additional supporting evidence is likely to be misleading.

Virginia↗
USGS2004

Atmospheric wet deposition of trace elements to a suburban environment, Reston, Virginia, USA

Wet deposition from a suburban area in Reston, Virginia was collected during 1998 and analyzed to assess the anion and trace-element concentrations and depositions. Suburban Reston, approximately 26 km west of Washington, DC, is densely populated and heavily developed. Wet deposition was collected bi-weekly in an automated collector using trace-element clean sampling and analytical techniques. The annual volume-weighted concentrations of As, Cd, and Pb were similar to those previously reported for a remote site on Catoctin Mt., Maryland (70 km northwest), which indicated a regional signal for these elements. The concentrations and depositions of Cu and Zn at the suburban site were nearly double those at remote sites because of the influence of local vehicular traffic. The 1998 average annual wet deposition (μg m −2 yr −1 ) was calculated for Al (52,000), As (94), Cd (54), Cr (160), Cu (700), Fe (23,000), Mn (2000), Ni (240), Pb (440), V (430), and Zn (4100). The average annual wet deposition (meq m −2 yr −1 ) was calculated for H + (74), Cl − (8.5), NO 3 − (33), and SO 4 2− (70). Analysis of digested total trace-element concentrations in a subset of samples showed that the refractory elements in suburban precipitation comprised a larger portion of the total deposition of trace elements than in remote areas.

Virginia↗
USGS2004

Water-quality and amphibian population data for Maryland, Washington, D.C., and Virginia, 2001-2004

Data on the chemical composition of water and on amphibian populations were collected at least annually from vernal pool and stream sites in Maryland, Washington, D.C., and Virginia, from 2001 through 2004. The data were collected as part of long-term monitoring projects of the Northeast Region of the Amphibian Research and Monitoring Initiative (ARMI) of the U.S. Geological Survey. Water samples were analyzed for temperature, specific conductance, pH, dissolved-oxygen concentration, acid-neutralizing capacity, and concentrations of total Kjeldahl nitrogen and total phosphorus; in 2004, samples also were analyzed for nitrite plus nitrate concentrations and total nitrogen concentrations. Field and laboratory analytical results of water samples and quality-assurance information are presented. Amphibian population data include the presence of amphibian species and the maximum number of egg masses of wood frogs and spotted salamanders at vernal pools, and counts of amphibians made during stream transect and stream quadrat surveys.

Maryland, Virginia, Washington, D.C.↗