K.S. McKelvey | Search USGS

USGS2009

Monitoring survival rates of Swainson's Thrush Catharus ustulatus at multiple spatial scales

We estimated survival rates of Swainson's Thrush, a common, neotropical, migratory landbird, at multiple spatial scales, using data collected in the western USA from the Monitoring Avian Productivity and Survivorship Programme. We evaluated statistical power to detect spatially heterogeneous survival rates and exponentially declining survival rates among spatial scales with simulated populations parameterized from results of the Swainson's Thrush analyses. Models describing survival rates as constant across large spatial scales did not fit the data. The model we chose as most appropriate to describe survival rates of Swainson's Thrush allowed survival rates to vary among Physiographic Provinces, included a separate parameter for the probability that a newly captured bird is a resident individual in the study population, and constrained capture probability to be constant across all stations. Estimated annual survival rates under this model varied from 0.42 to 0.75 among Provinces. The coefficient of variation of survival estimates ranged from 5.8 to 20% among Physiographic Provinces. Statistical power to detect exponentially declining trends was fairly low for small spatial scales, although large annual declines (3% of previous year's rate) were likely to be detected when monitoring was conducted for long periods of time (e.g. 20 years). Although our simulations and field results are based on only four years of data from a limited number and distribution of stations, it is likely that they illustrate genuine difficulties inherent to broadscale efforts to monitor survival rates of territorial landbirds. In particular, our results suggest that more attention needs to be paid to sampling schemes of monitoring programmes, particularly regarding the trade-off between precision and potential bias of parameter estimates at varying spatial scales.

Bird Study↗

USGS1996

An overview of fire in the Sierra Nevada

Fire, ignited by lightning and Native Americans, was common in the Sierra Nevada prior to 20th century suppression efforts. Presettlement fire return intervals were generally less than 20 years throughout a broad zone extending from the foothills through the mixed conifer forests. In the 20th century, the areal extent of fire was greatly reduced. This reduction in fire activity, coupled with the selective harvest of many large pines, produced forests which today are denser, with generally smaller trees, and have higher proportions of white fir and incense cedar than were present historically. These changes have almost certainly increased the levels of fuel, both on the forest floor and “ladder fuels”—small trees and brush which carry the fire into the forest canopy. Increases in fuel, coupled with efficient suppression of low and moderate intensity fires, has led to an increase in general fire severity. We suggest extensive modification of forest structure will be necessary to minimize severe fires in the future. In high-risk areas, landscapes should be modified both to reduce fire severity and to increase suppression effectiveness. We recommend thinning and underburning to reduce fire-related tree mortality coupled with strategically placed defensible fuel profile zones (DFPZs). DFPZs are areas in which forest structure and fuels have been modified to reduce flame length and “spotting”, allowing effective suppression. This chapter is an overview of work by the fire-subgroup of the Sierra Nevada Ecosystem Project. Details concerning these findings are found in Skinner and Chang 1996; Chang 1996; Husari and McKelvey 1996; McKelvey and Busse 1996; Erman and Jones 1996; van Wagtendonk 1996; and Weatherspoon 1996.

California↗